ondrej237

Hi! Is there anyone who trades European markets using this Wyckoff/DbPhoenix approach? I would like to share my charts with other traders and get some feedback. Thank you. Ondrej

Hi, I started to trade FESX on sim. This is my today's trade which caused, that I have some doubts whether I get Wyckoff's theory right or wrong. I would be grateful if anyone could help me. I posted some charts to explain my trade. On the "macro" chart (15 min) you can see, that market refused to make a lower low yesterday, after moving down in a channel for a couple of days. It then moved up and stopped at the last swing high, which was also resistance of yesterday's trading range (2929 - 2952). I plotted my S/R levels for today's action - the key level being 2952. This was the plan: If price breaks the S/R level on comparatively high volume, I will wait for retracement on lower volume and enter in direction of the break-out. If there is a rejection on climactic volume and test on lower volume, I will go short. Today, price broke through 2952 so I waited for retracement and then entered in the direction of the break-out. However, it moved only couple of points up and then retraced back through the S/R level at 2952. Now I have this question on my mind: isn't this exactly what Wyckoff did not recommend? From the micro point of view, I entered on retracement after break-out. If you look at the macro, though, you will see that it is in fact a break-out of the last swing high - Wyckoff's least favorable entry. Therefore, one shouldn't be surprised if the market acts in harmony with the auction market theory (buying and selling waves) and after making a higher high, it makes a higher low, which penetrates the S/R level on the way down. Better entry would probably be the higher low that FESX made this morning I'm quite confused now. Do you have any comments about this? Thank you!

Yes, I understand. That's what I've been doing. The thing is that I've been trying to analyze also volume on these fast charts and this was probably the reason for my quandary. I've been analyzing every price bar and volume bar on 5s chart and could not see any "pattern" or relationship. So thank you for that point about watching pace on these fast charts instead. Well, it seems that reading the fast charts is rather "art" than "science". It requires a lot of screen time...

I hope so. Given the angles of the upwaves and the lighter volume during the test, I would say that the first scenario represents rejection and the second one acceptance. However, it seems to me that this behavior is easier to recognize on 1m charts. When I watch tick charts or 5s charts I don't see anything like this. Just, as I said, occasional increase or decrease in volume irrespective of the price behavior. I don't know, maybe I need much more screen time to be able to see this in real time on faster charts.

I've been watching (or trying to watch) 5s chart last couple of weeks. The tick chart is almost impossible to watch for me, since I can see only 25 minutes of activity even if I zoom out. As regarding the 5s chart, I'm still not able to recognize when the buying pressure is stronger than the selling pressure and vice versa. It doesn't seem to me that there could be some recognizable "pattern" of price-volume relationship at the S/R zones. I can see only occasional increase or decline in volume - nothing what would give me hints whether the price is going to sit at that level or reverse in another direction. How can I for example judge acceptance vs. rejection?

I went through almost all Dbs threads in this forum at least twice and found one recurring topic regarding entries. According to Db, the fact that price touches your predefined S/R level is not a sufficient signal to enter the trade. You also have to watch how price behaves at these S/R levels. Which, for me, is quite problematic. I understand the basic Wyckoff principles, I have developed a strategy based on retracements after break-out of a range and reversals from S or R inside wider trading ranges, but I have problem with concrete setups. As for retracement, I understand that the break-out should happen on comparatively higher volume and that the volume should decrease on following decline (retracement). However, I have problems with reversals - I dont know how to recognize whether the price will likely reverse or sit at that predefined level. I trade FESX so I dont have acces to market internals such as TICKQ to help me to make decision. Could anyone help me with this and tell me what to watch? Thanks!