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Everything posted by milliard
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Hope you’re still positioned to the short side Mr Sledge? Prices flopping into Krantzy’s lower tier (from post #8) which should now act as a soft ceiling if we get a healthy close into the lower sixes down here. Counter bids unusually light at the 650-80 huh Annie Oakley? Those pirates talk a lot of shit at times. (weak) Russian lethargy if you ask me, that + EU/GB hot thru .8025 See how much reliance on that the Pound bears are likely to stomach. Time to get your 1.94 calling cards located children, playtime is looming!
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That's fair enough. If something feels right & you can claw a buck out of it then that's gotta be a positive yeah? If it aint broke, then it don't need fixing Right, we're about 5 hours late out of the door today, so I'll bid you adios & we're off in search of strong beer & even stronger women!! Enjoy your weekend.
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You mentioned you focus exclusively on the old Cable Sledge. Is there a specific reason you remain loyal to that grizzly son of a bitch? Sterling has represented pretty neat value selling it via Yen, Euro & especially the Franc. Some real sweet technical zones have been tagged & bagged on those 3 during last quarter. By comparison, & typically - Cable has bucked & snorted like the irksome camel it is. Just curious really.
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I'm afraid we can't assist either Bearbull, sorry. We don't trade futures. We execute via Prime Broker streams, so I can't help regards retail outlets either. I know Anna has come across folks operating through HotspotFXi & London Cap. If you're looking at playing the cash, you might want to give them a holler? She'll be back in the office later, I'll send her in here to confirm.
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Oh I don't doubt that Arty, I don't doubt that at all. But, along with one or two others, that pair has got a little crowded & cramped inside current range boundaries. Stops have been tripping over each other left & right. EURGBP has been the far less stressful option to engage Sterling combat. "Confucius he say: “if prices resemble avalanche on mountain path, retrace steps & walk smoother road" Don't ya just love that old fella
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That's the thing right there Annie Oakley. Absorb enough of the outlying to add a little flavor to the pot. Too much spice & you kill the dish Folks need to be mindful of overdosing on both technical as well as fundamental diets. It's all very well understanding & appreciating the complexities of these economic scenarios - but you got to know how you're going to actually trade that info. Not such an easy transition for most.
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
milliard replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Sledge, appreciate your reply. Blowfish, yeah I’d surely agree with that comment. But then to be fair, this stuff isn’t really directed at the (cash fx) market in which we ply our trade, so his claims or comments of this supposed “smart money” cuts no ice across here. I don’t doubt it has a place alongside instruments which track volume data. But that’s not our home. Yeah, one of these day’s I’ll maybe get some time to actually pick one of these trading related books up & have a snout. Thanks for the recomm, I’ll pin that on my corkboard. psssst….don’t tell Mr Krantz though, he’ll assume I’m looking for alternative employment- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
milliard replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Could I ask a couple questions regards your post here Sledge please? It’s an interesting view of events. I don’t in any wish to distract this thread or disrupt the flow, but am (casually) curious as to your meanings/definitions on a couple points. What or who is the ‘professional $’ you refer to, & who are these Bulls that they’re setting a trap for?? Are you tick boxing Funds, Leveraged money or 2nd tier accounts here? And what do you mean by “proving the vsa theory” blah blah? In the context of yesterdays pre-NFP activity, what is it supposed to be highlighting? and who are "the herd" ? I'm not attacking your commentary or anything, just curious. You'll have to excuse me, but I've only ever seen this vsa stuff mentioned on retail boards, I don't know any of the heavyweight, serious money who pays attention to this stuff & we speak to quite a few folks over the course of an avg business week. I think you’ll find that the only money playing tag yesterday, especially pre-NFP, was dumb or gambling money. Funds, accounts & serious leveraged players will have jobbed & worked their positions into the box into Thursdays NY trade & wouldn’t be participating again until next week. A good percentage of them have upper (2.0100 to 2.0220) & lower (1.9975 back to 1.9710) boundaries snagged & tagged where the real supply-demand clips lie. Most of the activity inside those vibration channels are jobbing or averaging levers depending on which side of the fulcrum (& their relevant trend) the respective money is geared. But then, there are very different agenda's & scenario's playing out...which makes me wonder bout the validity of all this disecting & autopsy procedures on specific bars etc. Still, whatever gets you thru the day I guess. I’m not suggesting any of your work or research is low key or anything, because I don’t know which angle you’re coming in off, but there was very little activity y’day from the real money. Well certainly not in the cash (spot) mkt anyhow.- 2244 replies
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Don't make this process any more complicated than it needs to be. You're seeking a relationship with a supplier who can offer you access to streaming, variable prices for which they'll expect to receive a commission. If you're laying down a wedge less than $1-2mio for starters then your supply will be limited. If you're seeking high grade service facilities, you gotta pay for the privilege. It don't come at a premium, not in this business. Entry level ECN from the retail sector is something we don't have any familiarity with whatsoever, so I'm afraid Anna or myself can't assist on that score unfortunately. But just do like she suggested, ask the awkward questions & extract the relevant information. It's your business after all. If you were negotiating a deal with a potential customer, what type of stuff would you require to close the deal out? There's got to be flexibility from both sides. If they don't offer what you require then look elsewhere till you get most of what you need. Sledge, check your p.m
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I hear ya sledge, & you certainly didn’t offend. I totally agree with your comments re; majority of the retail fx brokers out there. Spot has attracted a bad rap now for a good while, & the double barrel kick from clueless punters & scum bag (retail) brokers really pisses the genuine players off big style. On the whole, those dirt bags (brokers) attract exactly the type of punter they deserve, & vice versa. Most of the crowd who have jumped on the wagon over the past few years are under capped, over leveraged, & gunning totally inadequate strategies for their intended aims. They do very little (initial or ongoing) research, planning, testing of sorts or even understand the generic marketplace & what makes it tick. Little wonder they go underwater so quickly. Most of them are a brokers wet dream. The minority who go in amply prepared & with eyes wide open quickly find out (as you appear to have done) the reality is very different from the rosy, sexed up picture being painted by all the bullshit marketing. But there are alternatives out there for you & any other player who has their head screwed on, & has been ever since these slime balls began sprouting up over the last 5 or 6 yrs. All’s it takes is a little snouting & ferreting around & a confident persona. Ring the larger supply houses up & talk through with them what you’re looking for. They’re not ogre’s. They want to do business with professional players. If they can’t accommodate you, then push them to recommend an alternative over & above the lower tier retail shops. Ask them if they have contacts into private money or short to mid-term investment vehicles seeking an avenue outlet etc etc. How can you get on the lower rung of the Interbank engines blah blah blah…… These fella's (dealers, clerks, reps) speak to a lot of customers every day (including spec desks/hedge outfits/CTA pods/high net worth punters etc) & know what's going on out there. You got to put yourself out there & hustle these characters. They’re not going to come knocking your door. Not many have the balls to contact them. As long as you’re confident, know your onions & you’re polite yet ballsy, they won’t hang up on you. As Anna-Maria said, if one possesses a keen awareness of what’s what out there & has his-her shit wrapped tight then the options are a little more varied.
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Why doesn’t that surprise me any. I ought to have figured you’d be sticking your beak into places & things that don’t concern you. I guess we’ll have Mr Krantz informing us he’s a major investor in Oanda next?! Mind you, that’s not such a shabby income stream judging by the bemusing attraction, apparent high strike-out rate & account pumping antics of the gamblers. Think maybe we ought to divert & branch into retail shop distribution Annie Oakley? What do you reckon. Grease the slimy palms of the laughable regulators & we're home & hosed.
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Sure, but all I was concerned with was that the important little tag (retail) was inserted in front of your comment regards cowboys & thieves. Quite crucial to distinguish between the hobby shops & the legitimate working environment. I’m afraid I can’t comment on the rest of your post, & I wouldn’t imagine Mr Krantz or Ms Gistane (Anna-Maria) could either. We don’t ply our trade in gamblin shops. If folks are sufficiently equipped & loaded with sensible (FX) market skills & experience, (note the word sensible!!) then they really shouldn’t be wasting time, effort or indeed, their own money hustling hobby shops & getting distracted with all that nonsense. There are firms & groups of investors out there with pockets full of greenbacks only too willing to bankroll the serious hotshots. Instead of wasting energy on things which can’t be changed, funnel it into area’s that can make a difference. Slinging regular 5 & 10+ million clips (of someone else’s mooool-ahh) thru a decent Prime or heavyweight (spot) dealing engine will return far more bang for your buck than pissing around with 5th rate hustling shops. And that kind of financing will open those kinds of (Prime Broker/top tier supply) doors. That’s providing of course one possess the aptitude & psychological maturity to handle both themselves & (regular) heavy size. Retail shops exist for a reason. I assume most folks are savvy enough not to require the likes of me to lay those reasons out on the line.
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That's a pretty (general) sweeping statement you make there buddy. Stick RETAIL in front of the above highlighted text & your comment maybe holds water. I can assure you there are very distinctive levels of quality between the institutional & retail engines within the spot market. Pricing, delivery, execution & working practices are worlds apart.
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That wouldn't be a vieled reference to all the talk of this supposed coordinated rates cut chatter doing the rounds would it Annie Oakley? Care to lay a bet that item of mischievous spook speak slipped out of Hank Paulsons office?! 2.0220 the fulcrum then huh? 0100 canned & panned.
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Krantzy: Stops below 5520 appear to be of more concern (to the thumb suckers) than semi-serious Jap flows. What the hell do they pay these jerk off's to do all goddamned day long?!????????? Ya, your 2.0100 was/is a slam dunk all night long....fast money's been eyeing that since the top channel @ 0220 pitched the supply. You really rate all that Russian shit?? I think it's ghost money myself - those characters might venture out when the flows are full, but you don't usually see them when the going gets tough...well, not via London outlets anyhow. Updates would be nice ever once in a while - Reuters went walkabout today :o :o zdo: Not to the extent that it would be noticeable, no. Trouble is, when liquidity dries in circumstances such as these, the wholesale & top tier crowd go into a huddle. Things can get awful tetchy as moving (ratcheting) size becomes problematic until full visibility (Frankfurt & London) occurs. Dealers (at certain retail shops) holding overweight positions or top heavy biased order balances won't be able to offset if counter parties are unwilling to take their flows. The big desks (Primes & majors) will handle & sort their internal flows first, & filter party traffic second. Times like this when you get to witness who really is doing their job correctly...& it's usually NOT the retail fly-by-night jockeys.
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It’s comical to witness, it really is :o Actually, on second thoughts it's incredibly sad & pathetic, but you gotta giggle I guess. If one of those 4 star ECB and/or BoJ generals so much as farts near a mic this week we’ll have the “intervention pussies” screeching & hollering like sexed up banshees. Deutsche have suspended some of their super troopers on the Asian desk apparently, for order book irregularities. Every time you attempt to slice a wedge thru the Yen crosses via Fimat or BoNy, the screen belches atcha. What’s all the skittishness occurring over at BoA all about Krantzy? Anna couldn’t shuffle out there earlier either. Jesus H Christ, a little turbulance & those f****** junior high dealers & supervisors out there at the so called ‘big desks’ begin pissing their little panties. Wait till they really have something to contend with. Times like these we get to see just how f****** useless these college kids really are with their folders full of worthless degree garbage.
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They don’t really get too excited about individual economic releases torero when running positions on these animals. Intraday is a different ball game, but it’s rare Art or Anna will drill down & get involved in that arena to be honest. It has to be for a very specific reason before they’ll waste energy chasing these bucking bronco's all over the grid. I know she’s got 2.0850 (weekly tech interest) & the aforementioned 2.1250 flagged on trips back up + the 1.9650 & 1.9450 zones tagged to the downside. Anything which occurs either side of their entry-stop-next interest zone barriers is usually given a low interest rating. I can’t really be of any more help regards your observations as I have no idea of your trade structures or aims etc. I do know they will occasionally allow a pretty loose rein (stops) on their initial entries (& usually cover them via option plays or jobbing exercises etc) if they’re particularly interested in getting aboard at a value range or supply-demand camp. But then, a lot of their larger positional plays have less to do with technicals & more to do with fundamentals & psychology. If you’re viewing it from a shorter timeframe play (sub hourly) or a tighter risk option, then I’m not your man I’m afraid.
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You’ll find most of the factors which drive this pair will emanate from the local influences (Swiss/British vibration). Dollar-Swiss is sometimes impacted by movements in cross exchange currents, such as GBPCHF & EURCHF. Typically, interest rate & key inflationary data which prints Franc negative, will knock onto Swiss weakness & in turn drag on the Dollar-Swiss. The only times that outside factors affect the rhythm of this pair is if a move on Cable or Swiss gets extended via a rogue print in say NFP or a unique fundamental development kicks Cable or Swiss cross pairings temporarily out of whack. A good deal of importer-exporter activity also transacts & feeds this pair, especially given it’s close border (geographic) proximity to Eurozone & GB.
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Krantzy & Anna-Maria trade it ever now & again. I know she's had it on her radar as it flirted with 2.2570-50 (daily) & again further down here at 2.1250 (hourlies). It's average daily (weekly) range coverage matches that of the volatile Geppy, as opposed to the other popular pairs. They certainly don't daytrade it though. Preferring to run it via the slightly longer timeframe outlook given it's propensity to trek thru the levels fairly effortlessly.
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Not surprising really torero. Geppy has plumbed 10 handles (1,000 pips) in 3 session closes from the strong 213.0 ceiling, stalling out at decent support from 4th Q 05-1st Q 06. Fierce thrusts like that require a breather to assess the damage before considering their next move. Risk aversion has continued to spook these instruments & the 2 way flows will be jerky affairs until one side or the other gains a confident foothold. These pairs, particularly Geppy, sure require a trader to adopt & embrace a well defined trend/range combo strategy.
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
milliard replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
:o The first paragraph will have me chuckling all w/end, nice one sir. The second is simple, plain common sense. Unfortunately, those very pertinent comments will be lost & forgotten to most by the time the computers are switched off for the night.- 2244 replies
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Ecb are hawkish re; rates Abe. They’re commited (as are the BOE) to containing inflationary pressures, but of course are very aware & mindful of the conflicting pressures (growth v/s inflation) which our (US) economy are attempting to juggle. As Anna-Maria mentioned, when you get contradictory & opposing views & actions surfacing, the differing camps begin squaring up & re-positioning. This causes turbulance to prices, which in turn results in traders jostling for fair value (regards their positioning) & quite often, prolonged range behaviour until the scenario plays out. You then witness breakout, often violent in it’s behaviour, especially if the range begins to coil up. Obviously, if you possess the strategies to navigate these differing trade conditions, then you can shave profit both inside a range as well as in trend mode. If you don’t got those tools, then you simply have to wait patiently until conditions revert to your preferred method of execution. But it can be very beneficial if you recognize & understand the background of why prices are doing what they’re doing & what will influence their eventual destination if a certain scenario begins to play out. That way, you can begin establishing a core position in your favored instruments & not get hustled or shaken out of them prematurely via all the bustle, noise & heightened transaction costs which affect the smaller or gambling timeframes. One of the benefits I guess of digesting a balanced diet of Fundamental & Technical input.
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I was quite surprised how stellar most of the daily range averages held up today to be honest. The popular pairs were ticking at circa 78-82% for the most part into the London fix. Last couple book balancing sessions they've been contained in the low 60's, which merely confirms Krantzy's earlier comment re; the flip flop risk calls out there. Yen pairs especially, have honored their intraday range averages so far into the new year, with Cable & Swiss slight underperformers. But then the climate has dictated those prints to a certain extent. I guess as (if ?) range contraction ensues, it becomes ever more important for you intraday players to quickly compute your (adequate) risk to position exposure parameters on the hoof as the day unfolds. Particularly as some of these big levels from the higher timeframes come into view.
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I agree with your comments bout mugging the Yen pairs with rigid entry boundaries. Not such a tricky proposition if feeding in via the larger timeframes. Your spread on that pair (avg 3 & change) isn't too shabby to be honest. I'm pretty sure the normal retail deal on Geppy strings out to c6-8? That definitely is criminal. I got 3 zones of interest on this one. Large (tiered) profit & scale stops are resting up a ways @ 221.10 through 223.60. Those are the secondary profit wedges from the p/b shorts off 239.0 laddered to 236.0 Above 213.50 to 216.90 lies 2 way stop interest (strong bullish to 216.0) from the latecomers. Good fade interest inside this channel. 205.40 is a strong weekly line. Aggressive Pound defensive zone here & at the moment, harbouring weak compound sales stops...could change drastically if 213.0 isn't breached & consolidated. Those are the zones which are being "traded"...Anything in between is purely down to (& being traded by) the 'flavor of the day' spec brigade. Good hunting
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I was right then. Sorry for not recognizing you off the bat. A lot of names/faces filter through the net along the route! Yeah, everyone is still pretty much in the groove. Tess is over here till the summer & the others are still at their various firms/shops. Mark is buying up property on the Island of Cyprus like it’s going out of fashion, LOL. He’s got a trading pod set up over there – Krantzy’s shipping out next month to help steady the ship. Quite what they’ll make of him over there is anyone’s guess. A 240lb rack of intimidating Texan muscle, resplendent in Stetson & havana will cause a ripple or two….especially when he can’t obtain a good sized fill on the hoof :o Good to see you’re staying ahead of the curve. Appears some of that simple old stuff rubbed off huh? We still mainly interact via the private forum to be honest Cowpip. The others won’t frequent public domains, but we merry bandits don't mind this little corner. It's not as wacky as most of the public garbage out there. Ok, it’s a wrap for me tonite. Don’t you just hate the twilight gig. Mind the gaps & dodge the bullets! Andre.