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WinSum

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Everything posted by WinSum

  1. I agree. Learning how to add to your winners is a topic that is rarely discussed by ACD Traders and it is a important part of the ACD Methodolgy.
  2. WinSum

    Oil Pullback

    $60.88 looks like a good spot to start buying and $62.85 looks like a good spot to start shorting.
  3. Correct, Market goes from Balance to Imbalance and back into Balance and then back to Imbalance again. I use Market Profile to see developing Balanced Area, if your indicator is similiar, then I would agree.
  4. It sounds good, test it out to see if it will work for you. The only exception to your concept on how to identify a Balance with using "tight range" don't fit. "Tight Range" are begging for a Break-out and are not a stable balance area.
  5. A Balance Area will look like a Normal Distribution. If you show the picture below to a Market Profile trader, they will say the market is in "Balance". It's has a Normal Distribution profile and it closed back into middle of the chart at the end of the day. MP traders don't need indicator to see balance area, they can just eyball it. It just takes screen time to be able to recognize it.
  6. Sure, prior to last week, most ppl would agree the market was in an Uptrend. If you bring up a TPO chart on the Russell 2000 from 12/7/06 to 2/23/07, you can see a node forming on the top of the uptrend. From 831.90 to 821.30, the node was developing into a bell curve profile. If the uptrend was going to continue, it would break out of this balance area and continue its move up. There was a node below that and the POC was at 817.60. If price comes back into the POC of the prior node, this would be the uptrend has stopped and trend traders should be alerted and have their protective stop losses in place. They will no longer be bias long. People who were pullback buyers on 2/27/04 got clobbered because the other time frame buyers were no longer bias long. The price has gapped down below the prior node's midpoint.
  7. No, I have a TPO Overlay Demand Curve that I use to see the market profile structure but I do the Octet calculation by hand because my programming skill is limited. The ODC allows me to see the previous Balance Area nodes and its POC, so I know where the stop losses are likely to be located for trend traders. The interpretation is that the break-out Trend has come back into Value and a Stopping Point of the Trend has been created and the market will now transition from Imbalance back into Balance.
  8. Don Jones have software/service that you can get it from him , otherwise you will have to build your own.
  9. I'm also playing around with a new concept on stop loss placement on Trends. Here is another technique. From Don Jones's book on Value-Based Power Trading (pg 139), he uses a more longer term technique for position traders (minimum of 10 days). 1) There is no target price at the beginning of a trend. The stop-loss price for a trend is 1.5 octants from entry. 2) The initial stop-loss point is maintained until the first node forms. 3) After one or more nodes have formed, the trade is exited when price returns to the mid-point of the prior node.
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