Art Krantz

Could be wrong Andre, but it smells like a Sam Seiden or Scott Kaminski/Marketwise supply-demand thingy?! All well & good etc, but I'll take the "extremely accurate" pronouncements with a large swig of malt. I don't have any problems with the concepts & foundations of what these fella's teach at all, after all it's based on smart observation. But it aint all fluffy & straightforward as they make out. Give me a multi dimentional technical graph & a well lit peak/trough grid anytime of the day (on any timeframe you care to offer it on). Let the supply-demand grunts lead the attack & cut a swathe through the brambles. I'm more than happy to sit in behind them & let them take the flak

Morning Steve. Agree Andre, that 50/38% line on Buks post will unveil the likely activity. 2nd wave fall out will be the one to lure in genuine Yen Bulls. This was simply short covering in the main. The Pound/Yen shift off the 78.6 & back to test the support line at 232.20 will also run true to Cables near term axis. 32.30 is a key support & lack of att'n will be a magnet for that 231.0 figure. 229.10, the dual 4th Quarter 06 markers & 228.06, the 07 lows come into view on continued pressure.

Surprised you're not hunting with the Yen Bulls Steve? Again, far less stress gunning the carry positions than dodging bullets on these babies & more bang for your buck? You got a good handle on your set ups & tools, they'd keep you tucked away safely if & when the conditions get windy. Looks like you'll get a run on your trade in 15mins if the number doesn't shake up the dirt anyhow. Some heavy duty specs turning the Bears over on the Asians by the looks Andre! You sure got "your fun" by the looks. The China ticket & repatriation no doubt adding to the assault.

The focus items of the release.

640 is definitely the supply line here Andre. Cut & shift up or bail it? Friday, high end of the range, channel test blah blah. POETS day?? What's that some kinda UK thing?

Pleasure! I wish I had a few more answers, but unfortunately I don't. We're just like everybody else out there, looking to stay alive & grab a crust. I guess it depends on how you want to play these candidates. Pivotprofiler makes some very solid points on the technicals, & I totally agree with him regards his observations around the supply/demand zones. notouch also hit on a couple relevant points regards Fibs & the radar data releases. It’s good to see your site attracts quality personnel with sensible commentary. These candidates are highly strung & prone to whiplash as you’re finding out. But we all play them with differing views & back up artilliary. No-one has the monolopy on correct procedure, but I guess eventually we migrate to what works best with the information & experience we possess? Objectives also rank high on the tick list. I note you’re a heavy tech operator. That’s cool, nothing wrong with playing any instrument via a high percentage tech base, but you got to be aware of any impending data that’s likely to kick price around the park. Especially if you’ve legged in on close quarters inside a defined range or whip zone. Long as you can bodyswerve the bullets & don't blow up, you’ll find your balance. Like you say, it aint easy, but then nothing worth achieving rarely is? All the very best with your endeavors.

Hell yeah, that's the guy. Whatever you do, don't fire an invite off in that direction. This joint will be crawling with regulators Wonder whatever happened to him. If he wasn't loaded up on acid 4 out of 5 shifts then I'm the Pope.

You present some very pertinent points, most of which cannot be disputed. The smart money doesn’t however trade off an exclusive (technical) diet. They take advantage of the emotive peaks in the market. Those peaks are heavily biased around fundamental direction. The actual data prints are often of secondary importance. Most of the activity leading into & away from a key number or item of interest revolves around the expectation. And to a large degree, that is emotion based. I think we’re both more than aware of why prices become whipped on a consensus-actuals imbalance, that’s obvious. But the supply/demand zones are merely by products of emotion, & that is virtually always orchestrated by the smart money & their positioning. Those operators will, as you say, do business across a variety of timeframes, but they will definitely be conducting their business with more than one eye on the non-technical grid. Which is where my comment came from regarding overbought/sold riders. What I should have said was ‘overstretched’, which of course is when we witness the handover of dollars from the dumb to the smart operators, on whichever timeframe we choose to observe. I don’t dispute the importance or technical validity of the supply/demand area’s. But in the bigger picture, they’re simply holding zones. And those zones will, at some point, be manipulated on the back of the fundamental drivers. The bottom line of course is, that if you possess the skills & experience to extract a regular wage from the markets trading either path, then that’s all that matters. Personally, I think it’s counter productive to ignore news & generic fundamentals. It dilutes the options. But then that’s just my view. And of course, it’s healthy to hold & encourage opposing views!

Market sentiment in FX is driven primarily by the economic and geopolitical news, whether short or medium term related. The key players in the currency market - Multinationals, Central Banks, Hedge Funds and the top tier Investment Banks that service them don’t give a stuff whether a triple top or double bottom prints an hourly touch on the EU or Sterling. Instead, they formulate their trades by analyzing the most recent economic news and geopolitical developments. Sure, technicals are critical for timing, but they don’t drive prices. Smaller players can front-run the big dogs due to their flexibility & the fact they carry less baggage, which is where a good all round comprehension (tech & fundamental) of the price chain bears fruit. The benefits being, the small guy can hop on & off the momentum generated by the order flows, which get churned week in, week out thru the fundamental (sentiment) of the big guys. Sentiment can often take hours/days to filter thru whilst the funds re-adjust & juggle their books etc. This is where technicals will become extended, floated, bounced & re-set. FX is probably the most multifaceted instrument class out there. The dynamics more or less demand a consistant & varied approach. To drop one in (exclusive) favor of the other is surely transacting with one hand tied behind your back isn’t it? Where do you suppose the overbought/sold riders emanate from? Like I mentioned earlier, the rumor mill amongst the tiered desks accounts for a good portion of intraweek momentum, & if that's not expectation based on fundamental weight I don't know what is.

We use the 5pm New York closing print (interest strip) as the Pivot Line calculation. Can't help you with your Futures queries I'm afraid. We don't trade them at this office. 100% of our flows are via spot deals. The money flows & contacts we communicate with don't trade Ftrs.

I see you utilize a volume fix on your price representation. If you're tech trading through the Futures route, then I guess that will assist in shining a light. Whatever floats your boat. As to your actual triggers? again, that's determined by your set up log & individual trade preference. I work a very similar process to Anna & Buk. Anna's ops are specific time engineered & level dependant. We grade a channel according to the larger level & whether it's supply or demand related. Buk's are a little more slack given his guy's loosen off the stops & their objectives are wider placed. A simple % grid or chock quadrant will time you in if price is channeling though, whatever your aims. Long as the level warrants previously high level activity & the Big Figure back it up? (weekly, monthly s/d line or a confluence area determined by a math rule), the quad will help to identify a probable strike base in the absense of data. Of course all bets are off leading into a key release as the bias will be wholly determined by the consensus/actuals & any revisions or backwriting. Doesn't really matter what means you identify to climb on, as long as your techs match the bias. A strategy structured exclusively around patterns better be tested thoroughly though, otherwise it'll ship you in & out on so many false signals you'll wonder whether you're on this earth or fullers LOL.

Fault lines can be compromized in the absense of news output sure. However, most of the hard & fast moves usually occur on the back of a Fundamental release. Minus the immediate danger of a key economic reading, prices will trade with a technical bias, & the British Pound likes channels. Just look at a 240 or a 30 minute spec chart if you're intending chasing price within the open-close session. The impact of the big dog releases are keyed in depending on where the big players are looking on a week to week basis, & sometimes on a day-day level. It also doesn't help when the rumor mill gets cranked up either They usually begin doing the rounds a day or so before a major event. Prices can & frequently do become extended on a regular basis. If you're well versed on your pair of choice, you can bounce off the technicals intraday. I could elaborate, but I'd possibly fill this thread & bore you to tears I'll just say, ignore the fundamentals at your peril. The releases used to be a darned sight easier to trade than they are now. Even when you line your data research up & cube it, the price strikes get stretched due to all the breakdowns & revisions. Even the top drawer analysts calling out the reccomm's to a spot desk in real time have to be on top of their game to blanket the current data strikes, & these cats have the cutting edge terminals wired into the circuit. Your best bet is to fit your technicals extremely tight to your surroundings & be aware of when the Big Dog Data is setting up. Watch the price moves a day or so prior to the major news, & keep your eyes on prior weekly, monthly limit lines. These levels usually trigger the desk flows.