Art Krantz

That ceiling will be softer than usual this morning judging by the London boy's reaction to the Merrill news. Aggressive buying on this pair into the open from Mid-East accounts should drive it (& GY in sympathy) thru the layered stops. Intraday specs & fast money stops continuing to get whacked on this 2 way ratcheting. Who'd be a short range player in this environment? Looks like your defenders are out in force this morning Andre. Rain check on the 9400

I'm not too sure how much use our far sighted views will be to you Sledge, but I assume (if) you're playing it from the short side off these lower top fades, then you've got the breeze at your back for now. Like Andre mentioned, euro/pound is a decent companion to your Cable trade as Sterling takes on water. Long as you're banking dollars & your risk is in line, then you're heading in the right direction I guess.

Yeah, he's so sharp he'll end up slicing a chunk out of himself if he aint careful torero :o We don't really have occasion to drill down (observe) into anything smaller than a 240 very often to be honest. The bigger windows tend to offer clearer views of the ball game if you get my drift. Anna-Maria will have a little game of tag on a sub hourly every so often if a real juicy Grade A opp presents itself, but it's a minority play. Pound is an easy sell v/s it's close cousins, as you're witnessing via your technical maps. Swiss was an underperformer coming into 08 & is merely playing catch up. The global fall-out isn't doing it any harm, but it has it's own internal fundamentals to address. It requires (along with all the others) close inspection as it buffers the technical reaction levels, as players will be eyeing the "next tasty treat". EUR is currently whipping it back off it's 3 year range pitch with that big weekly retreat during March. Just keep noting your strong v/s weak hit list, & position yourself accordingly (if you roll your trades on?). I wouldn't know what advice to offer on an intra-day perspective as we simply don't sing to that tune. I guess your technical map (levels from the big frames) will tell you which zone of activity is bossing the flows as players lighten up & head to the sidelines for a better guage. Nothing changes as liquidation goes thru it's motions. The fast money will get checked out & the real flows will pick up the slack.

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks. Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone. Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

"the russians are comin, the russians are comin"....when the going gets tough, the russsskies go-a-missing :helloooo: Easy money for those good ol boys. Any scratching or pushin and a shovin & they're off to their beds :o Ok skip, it's 22.00hrs & I'm sure glad this shift has rolled to a close. Lets go tease a dealer & steal his satchel. Another day another $ beckons the morrow.

They (U.S & Russian tiers) were sweeping stops underneath 152.80 as Anna & Tess were trying to pare off Andre. They eventually got their ticket but it was a little slow feeding thru that's all. Far as I can make out, French, Swiss & Mid-East names have been bailing on distressed prices all (european) morning & had very little joy either into NY. Mainly EU/Jap & CHF cross traffic. Similar scenario, although not as chaotic, on Cable & Dollar/Jap. Usual suspects (East Coast) attempting to pump wedges thru on the sly LOL. 154.0 to Friday's NY lows, of interest to latecomers...Jap traffic noticeably picking up into late afternoon trade. They sure whacked 2.0100 huh? Tess had that marker radared thru Friday. There's your key Cable fulcrum from here!

Like Cary say's, it's down to shallow liquidity. A good few dealers were paring off late into Friday's New York shift & those caught on the hop attempted to fire thru into the Sydney-Tokyo opening lap. Interbank were straddling 10-15 wide across multi-pairs into Tokyo according to colleagues & London desks have been squeezing (large) orders thru on thinning breaks, apparently using intervention rumors as a cloak. All sorts of dodgy games being played out there today. It will continue this week as those with keen agenda's (to work step orders) attempt to manipulate events to tag their books into the approaching long weekend.

A non-event today, with little or no interest in this, or any of the popular pairs. It’s drifted in light New York trade & the low risk shorts still hold the upper hand into Tokyo. Sentiment remains mildly bearish, with COT flows flattening. It’s pretty much neutral regards main drivers on this one with all the talk of BOE rates & (on/off) risk aversion on the front burner. The supply has churned over remarkably well considering, but if you’re short this pair (which has remained the clever play), you might want to use the near term techs to re-adjust your weighting again into this week action, as was the case lower down off the 205.0 dble bottom print. One of the tech fella's here reports Fib interest at current levels from the kick off 205 to the recent heights up at 214.0 for those of you who follow that stuff. Apparently, it bounced a 50% on Friday at 209.30 & presently resides at the 38% here at 210.50. Anyhow, clear upper-lower markers are very visible & tradeable.

Probably coz any one of those sassy broads would run him, those twitchy European screen-desk jockeys (& the order books) ragged within a week without decent back-up. One high energy fillie cranking up the decibel levels in the offices is pushing it….2 or more of them let loose on those laid back Islanders & he’d be sectioned under the mental health act by the months end :o Plus, I’m pretty certain that neck of the woods runs light on Jimmy Choo footware/designer store frontage. Hell, they’d kick up one bad assed storm if they had to go more than a week without exposure to a fashion emporium or two.

Worth noting though torero that the past couple sessions have been tickboxed by asset chiefs & fund managers. They've been very visible in the forex market due to month end adjustments. Month, & particularly quarter end will result in increased exposure from these characters as they shuffle their packs. Order books get balanced up into the fixing, so moves are prone to over-extension & irregular behaviour. You just need to take that into consideration when planning your entries, pare-offs & exits around these specific times in the trading calendar. The volatility & risk on/risk off switch has also been amplified due to the near term global market turbulance. Lots of folks are getting bullied & hustled out there as positions become spooked via the micro timeframe psychology. We currently live (& trade) in very interesting times. Expect more of the same this year!

I agree torero, although I'm pretty sure most folks have the ability to see straight through most of all that stuff. I don't think too much of it goes on in here. We're old school I guess. A lot of our positioning emanates from the Fundamentals & cross market observation. Sure, we hit the phones & do the rounds daily, but that's simply what we've always done. There wasn't always the luxury of computers & electronic speed dial trading. You get a pretty good feel for what goes on out there after a while. These wholesale desks & big hitters know their stuff. Some heavy traffic flows through their platforms on a daily basis. Experience has taught us that all this new fangled tech nonsense tends not to work too well on the currencies, apart from the hard & fast s&r grids. Compared to alternative markets, the easy trends are small fry & often irksome if you don't know how to negotiate them. Which is why Anna & a few of us here prefer to work our orders via the big timeframes. We get more bang for our buck & sidestep all the crap which infests the noisey templates. Plus it's what our customers/clients are used to. To be honest, we'd rather know a large, reputable shop or gaggle of aggressive specs are active or on the move at a certain level, than place too much reliance on airy fairy tech mumbo jumbo. But, if that's what rocks your boat, all good & well. At the end of the day, if you can fire a couple 5 or 10 mill clips thru the barrel & stay on the right side of the line, then you're home & hosed huh?

You characters aint having my flame/fire extinguisher for damned sure. Jimmy & the Kiwi are nodding negative too :haha: Anyhow, I thought you were the only whack job up that end?! She's been associating with you cowboy's on the fast desk too much for my liking. That'll teach you to kick up mischief during the pre-Fed doldrums!!

I'd still prefer to use $yen as my barometer into Geppy/euyen Andre, sturdier trigger lines, specially via the gamblin timeframes. Her 110.50 puts the brakes on: 163.50 - hourly overhead res, decent marker to next level @ 165.0 228.0 exposes 231.30 (50% of month H-L). Stops hit hard thru 228.20 + See how heavy they're layered to that 50% defense.

Certainly the case for Euro Bulls yeah. I guess they’re in re-boot mode ahead of next weeks rates gig. German Consumer confidence will have dampened the enthusiasm somewhat. Anna’s chart across on the EUR thread is the one to take the short-term views from re; the lower EU lines. But losing the 1.47 handle could expose her lower zone @ .4580 pretty fast if they (Bulls) lose interest up here. A definite fast frame play from underneath 1.48 back to the harder stops. Beats the hell out of me what they want though? At least they got Trichet & his inflation-growth balance warriors on the case. We got a set of bandits with their collective heads halfway up their ass.

Strong Yen backing off (up to) your 109 interests me, down to the uncomfortable BoJ zone of 105-106.5. Definitely interests big money specs too. Between 109-111.50 is your (jobbers) market. That channel puts me on the sidelines. Watching AUDCAD @ .8750 (lighten longs) & 8875. GBPCHF paid the piper off Andre’s ceiling (2.2970), now flat again. EURO still a strong hold & good buy off your .4770 upper tier. Nice s&r call Cable as you mentioned last week - strong buy back to initial supports .0450-60 Xmas volumes on the "to do" list.

I'd sure agree with that point. I know Andre (milliard), Anna & myself included, wouldn't touch (traditional) retail FX if you paid us. I appreciate there are a couple half decent operators out there, & if you're a hobby trader, then it doesn't really matter either way - but if you're playing this circus for serious dough, you won't be trading via the bucketshops anyway.

Fear & conjecture (psychology) rule these instruments. They’re acutely sensitive to news flow of any color or creed. Most of the ongoing chatter regarding: interest rates economic gauges (inflation numbers, foreign money inflows-outflows, housing, jobs data, blah blah) central bank activity (& whispers) global imbalances etc, constantly whip up the volatility & pitch & toss them around to intra-day & intra-week fair value camps. Technicals are merely your weapon of choice to price & balance the fundamental biases which pop the pairs/crosses up & down the chart map day after day. If you can get in tune with the psychology of the market - keep one ear on the fundamentals & the other one on the technicals, you got yourself an even chance of pulling serious dough out of this circus. Players are constantly pricing in the fundamental flavor of the day as the relevant item of chatter/news hits the market. Your job is to interpret & grade it depending on importance or relevance & match it up with your technical grid/trade plan. Sometimes, you’ll get an aggressive pop to the upside/downside, or an out of whack move, which is specific to a particular currency at that time. If you know what you’re looking for (unique fundamentals) you can work the short-term strength/weakness of that specific currency to your benefit. These instruments are awful fickle, as are the participants. But generally they’re pushed & shoved around by the currency packing the heaviest muscle. In other words, trade what’s in front of you now, not what might occur in a couple days/weeks. Buy the strongest, sell the weakest is a simple, effective game plan to wrap a strategy around. Pure common sense (a trait severely lacking in most traders) will also be a good friend when navigating these waters.

I think you meant Yen strength, but I get your drift. That’s a smart trade. Hopping on the back of that textbook s&r flip through 111.50 at the Round Number (111.0) put the odds firmly on your side of the table. Of all the lower tops/peak-trough junctions to catch it (apart from 117.0), you nailed the less risky option – good job! You trade OPM/Fund money or just your private pot torero? These threads are somewhat lonesome on this side of the site huh? Apart from your contribution, us 3 are talking to ourselves :\ Wonder where the original thread starter wandered off to? Sure hope his (EU) shorts caught a life raft. Thanks for the holiday good wishes man!, have yourself a great weekend too!

Yep, I back your comments re; the handover of risk. Worth pointing out though that the scared money will have front run that Asian low b/o on your well flagged chart there. The smart cowboys will have played the 15min, 2 bar pullback to the line & hopped on the rear end of the momentum. But I get where you're coming from. Majority of retailers tend to jump the tape on these breakouts, specially when they're printing at nervy levels. Or do they these day's??

Give your buddy Jimmy Rogers a ring. See if him & Steve Sjuggerud can purchase another skip full of Renminbi. That ought to help your (Yen) cause some?! Might also bring a smile to Hank Paulsons hang dog face too :o Or is he still banging the Dollar's drum?!???!! Tough to know which camp that fool is sitting in these days.

These are the new? naked, multi-stream (bank), tell it like it is spot operators in town aren’t they? I guess 12 months is a reasonably decent guage/trial period. How do they cope with layered size torero? You shoving much size through there at varying times during the London & New York shifts? We're informed they got one or two foot soldiers out there on the retail forums banging their drum, not sure if that's good or bad It’s difficult to obtain a true reading on these guy’s. Ross & Steve Demarest sure have (positive) history out there, but it would be interesting to hear how this engine holds up against all the chatter & jawboning. I only know one semi-serious player running tickets through them, but he's a whack job (& no, it’s not milliard – though he’s certainly a whack job lol), so I disregarded the conversation. They appear? to offer an alternative to the dirty laundry masquerading as legit spot brokers out there, just wondering if their walk matches their talk.

Hee hee hee, nice Daddy Bear clip. You flatter me with the entry grasshopper! Alas, I'm not so brave Remember, I court & flirt with the intent. Most important. Gotta prove itself first 2/3rds banked at your doji line - 1/3rd at the b/e. Your angry daddy bear doesn't scare me that much yet junior.

Yoooo hooooo Anyone home here? Or are y'all catching a lunchtime nap?

Yep. You got exactly what you wished for today buddy boy. Lower highs & lows still rule the grid. We're smack in the midst of your aforementioned accum range. Shorts still have the upper hand into todays numbers. They'll run this north into New York Andre, so I'm going to hang onto the long. If I don't Anna-Maria will skin my hide :o I'd rather take flak from you than have her hollerin in my ear!

Nope. They simply recognize (& it reflects) the revered, confucius like quality of the contributions young man! Keep plugging away & you'll too earn your trading stripes grasshopper! :o :o “It aint what you say it’s the way that you say it - and that’s what gets results†da de da de de, de da….. Hell, I got those Bananarama chicks spinning around in my head now. The blonde one looks hot though in that teeny, little black number