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Art Krantz
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Everything posted by Art Krantz
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Well, I guess you can respect/believe who you wish to, that’s of no concern to me. These vendor/sales/public trader type folks have a vested interest in getting their PR out to the masses, but that’s a whole other slugfest. I certainly don’t disagree with your point about possessing an edge in your instrument/market of choice, but we’re not discussing trading edges. Anyhow, I don’t see why a balanced diet of fundamental & technical knowledge can’t greatly enhance an edge, especially a beginners outlook. But then that involves a bit of (extra) hard work & application. arifwise was scratching his head, totally oblivious as to why Euro popped to the downside on the back of the recent rates hike. He was advised (rightly in my opinion) to go broaden his outlook & research base. That would undoubtedly offer him a little more confidence & structure to his trade planning, which would knock-onto, & compliment his technical awareness. Tess wasn’t expecting him to enrol into an Economics degree course at his local college, but it wouldn’t do him (or anyone else, come to that) too much harm to become better acquainted with the key generic events which affect & drive these currency instruments on a regular basis. I guess each individual will eventually decide how much armour they require to get the job done. But I know which trader I’d rather have in my corner when push comes to shove.
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Those are pretty short sighted views if you ask me. Little wonder most retailers get so easily spooked & muscled out of decent (potential) core positions most of the time. Whether you like it or not, your technical set-ups are the result of fundamental flows. You can dress it up however you want (sentiment runs…psychological herding…supply demand imbalance etc), but the core drivers are numbers & data - pure & simple. I would have thought if someone was even half serious about making consistent long term profits in FX they’d at least familiarize themselves with what drives these instruments on a week to week basis & why? After all, if you’re looking to build a core position & aggressively compound via appropriate pullbacks and/or consolidation phases, you’re going to action those kinda trades if you possess a better than average handle on the fundamentals/drivers, & more importantly who is jostling for the ideal position & why. In my book that’s what separates the earners from the (constant) learners.
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You're prob better off running that pair via the shorter hourly studies back & forth off it's near-end s&r boundaries if you really have the urge to take it on. Recent avg weekly range prints are lacklustre to say the least, with this week registering a dour 73% of it's norm. 2nd quarter play on this baby has definitely dealt to the continued short bias, with 2.0180-220 a bit of a magnet. A pop under this flimsy floor here at that zone & a sniff at the early month lows would shake it up a little. Topside, I guess you're lookin at nibbles back thru 2.0410 (mid) & 2.0565-90 (top) of this sluggish range.
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It's normally a little lighter on bodies May thru July Sledge. Various combinations of them scoot off to take advantage of the hospitality marquee's at Roland Garros, Queens & Wimbledon. FOMC, or any other key data print doesn't really register more than a cursory glance forsearch. Positions are either squared off, bedded in or tucked well out the way if a heavy data print is on the radar. A couple of them occasionally take a swipe at a price if a data print coincides with one of their watch levels, but they generally only execute after the noise & excitement wanes, if at all. There's plenty of Grade A opportunities out there during a typical weeks play to strike the bat without having to rely on data prints for their corn.
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Well my dollar bills are out there on the line along with most other folks earning their keep on a semi-regular basis if you’ve a mind to try snatch them, so knock yourself out. If you’re smart enough you might sneak a small handful of them every now & again, but I can guarantee you’re gonna have to work smarter for longer than you’ve ever worked before if you want to make a habit of it
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knickers? twisted? not here. They're all fine, neat & exactly where they should be. Nope, you've missed that big ole point. There she goes whoooooosh...straight over the head & into the horizon Nice chattin with you private. Time to go sink a jug of cold beer & watch some sports.
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Unfortunately it's got absolutely zilch to do with attitude or hard work & we're swinging ourselves round this maypole so goddamned hard I'm about ready to flop with a dizzy spell :o Good luck to you private. Keep that body armour within reach
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If you join these chat sites for that reason then you're certainly in for a long, hard, painful slog. You stroll into joints like this to shoot the breeze & poke s*** sticks at the vultures (vendors) son, not improve your trading. You can do that all on your lonesome with a price action for dummies manual, a couple straight talking daily sheets to keep you abreast, a decent squawk facility & a good dollop of common sense. A reasonable grasp of psychology wouldn’t go amiss neither, beings that’s what pitches the smart cats amongst the dumb pigeons most every day. If you really want to improve your trading, or even obtain some (early & cost effective) feedback on whether you possess the muscle to cut it in this snake pit, you'll find yourself a fella who walks the walk & save yourself a whole sackful of misery & dough. You can cram most of the useless crud out there into a nice neat package & stamp it ‘return to sender’ for all the good it’ll do you.
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You absolutely sure bout that?? I happen to know that 2 of those individuals have also surrounded themselves with a few pretty cute cookies down the years. That doesn't necessarily equate to them burning too much midnite oil though. It's amazing the lengths some folks will go to in order to convince other folks what requires to be done to get results Like I said, smart operators tend to exert far less (unecessary) energy than most folks, & that includes hard (long hrs?) work
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If there are any hard working smart fella’s out there in this game I’ve yet to meet one. I’ve rubbed shoulders with real ‘work hard’ junkies who burn their candles from dawn till dusk. I currently chase a dollar with one or two (savvy) individuals who book less than 25 hrs a week on the ledger, & usually less if they can engineer it :o The latter generally far outpace the former regards consistent profit returns too I can tell you, & in my experience always have. A smart fella don’t got to work hard. That’s why he’s a smart fella in the first place! He leaves all the hard work to those who assume that’s what they got to do to get ahead in this game.
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The amount of pain you two have inflicted on his ear drums this week I wouldn't hold your breath That'll be a 14 setting on that cci Jack.
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Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
Art Krantz replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
Yes, of course you gentlemen are correct. I'm getting my blogs & my logs mixed up. Certain sections of the site (not incl blogs) are unavailable to non-premium members, & I incorrectly stated so. I guess it's not too difficult to work out I haven't spent a whole lot of time on public forums. -
Depending on your specific strategy models, I’m sure you’ll unearth your fair share of opportunities stringing your line across those candidates. We don’t work outside of the more popular pairs to be honest Kiwi. Not because of anything detrimental, simply because we can spot, work on & benefit from endless opportunities where the liquidity & participation is generally adequate for our needs. We make most of our money on the back of the ill-informed & naïve herd mentality at consistent levels of conflict. In other words, where folks buy when they ought to selling & sell where they ought to be buying. There’s a whole industry generating sack fulls of wonga based around that one simple concept :o It therefore makes sense to focus on those instruments where “the herd” are likely to congregate & transact their regular business. If you’re a competent, successful micro timeframe player on your current array of instruments, then I doubt you’ll find life too daunting or difficult as you cast your net into the FX sea. The principles of supply-demand…support-resistance & common sense patience & discipline aren’t exclusive to one asset class as far as I’m aware? Just try everything out & see for yourself what works best for you my friend.
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Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
Art Krantz replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
I'm sure many of the non-premium members were rather hoping you'd have plumped for the other route It’s a shame more of the members won’t be able to observe your views & comments. I know they have the opportunity to stump up $80 or whatever it is to upgrade, but it’s still disappointing that certain sections of these forums are out of bounds to those who would possibly benefit most. Of course you must direct, run & manage your work as you see fit, & it’s personal choice as to who accesses said info, but from what I understand (from colleagues etc) you’re a top class contributor with excellent knowledge, experience & grounding in your chosen field. I for one am very much looking forward to your (& other quality T2W posters) participation in this forum & judging by the feedback & buzz surrounding the transfer of activity of you guy’s, so are a few more. I’m by no means attempting to change your mind or alter your decision, but I hope you won’t restrict your posts exclusively to the medium of blogs or private enclosure. That goes for everyone who jumped ship. I fully understand & appreciate the reasons all you guy’s opted to pitch out of T2W, but this joint is a very different animal altogether. The mods are very agreeable, competent, switched on individuals & Mr Lee directs this site with a fair yet firm hand. I’m sure you’ll enjoy this gig & I wish everyone continued good trading! -
Thank you very much indeed Kiwi & mister ed for your kind references. Kiwi; One of my regular (technical) port of calls is to the Dollar Index to see what that’s up to. It’ll offer a snapshot of $ weakness v/s strength. You might then choose to cherry pick your candidate of choice if it's playing ball & quickly then proceed to leaf through the appropriate pairs to adjudge a likely opportunity. For instance, if the buck is weak v/s the basket, I’d want to be homing in on the candidate which is displaying the dominant & aggressive behaviour patterns. If it’s the Pound, then I’ll trail through the cross instruments associated with the Pound to locate whether it’s also a Pound story (of strength) or exclusive to the buck. I’m always on the hunt for value v/s risk. I want an easy life wherever possible. If the buck is mired in heavy range traffic, then I’ll look outside for maybe a decent cross opportunity. Perhaps sniff out a Yen (v/s it’s crosses) or CAD (v/s it’s crosses) or Swiss (v/s it’s crosses) maybe an Aussie (v/s it’s crosses) story. It’s not always just about the U.S Dollar. There’s a big wide world going on out there & all these Central Banks & treasury houses have their own internal agenda’s to juggle. I like to trawl through my pairs on a regular basis & pick out minor & major trend candidates setting up. I don’t exclude anything. I’m looking for consolidation behaviour, potential breakout candidates & possible reversal (into supply-demand grid territory) potential. Basically any area or zone which I determine is displaying a potential imbalance opportunity. I realize fundamental information & newswire chatter isn’t everyone’s favorite biscuit, but we all work that ticket too. You can pick up some very good reasonings behind near term directional flows via that route, especially the validity of a particular level or zone of interest (strength of bid/offer currents etc). To me, it’s a complimentary balance of views. I don’t give either one (techs or fundies) priority, rather try to see each sides point of view & use that info to offer me an edge at that specific time. Trading is all about separating the wheat from the chaff. It’s a constant merry-go-round which changes by the hour. I try not to hold opinions or fall in love with a pair. I’ll just as soon stop & reverse or scratch a trade which has soaked up a good few hours of analysis if the reasons for taking a view are no longer valid. I hope that helps some. I also hope some of our newer friends begin to add their 2 cents into the pot
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Howdy Wasp Yeah, this is a pretty neat joint to hang out in. It houses some very switched on individuals spread right across the field. Much of the content revolves around the important aspects of what drives the market flows. I like the fact that the psychological/emotive credentials are often referred to & discussed on this site, which is good to witness. Some savvy contributors reside over here, & you fella's have brought along Mr Burrow of Phoenix, Firewalker & Gammajammer to add a couple more notches of quality to the totem pole. I'm sure there are others (including yourself) who have decamped this week who will continue to trickle across, & will add to the quality of what is a pretty top grade arena. I for one look forward to welcoming increased activity from you good folks. Unfortunately, time isn't always a great friend, but it's a breath of fresh air to peruse the content on here when time allows. I hope y'all find the place both condusive & enjoyable. Good to have you folks aboard
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:o you scaring the refugee's Andre? Best get your momma to bake a cake as a peace offering. Git her to bake one for the forum police too while you're at it. Got better things to do than sloping off down to the slammer to bail you out :o
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It will only really affect you if you’re trading intra-day. End of month/quarter/half year, etc can throw up excessive volatility as funds & key players shuffle their inventories & sweep back & forth on their book adjustments. You’ll also sometimes witness erratic price activity on & around the various fix (especially the 13.15 & 16.00 gmt) prints, as large orders & counter trade matches clear thru the system. A good deal of the time it’s nothing too much to worry about, you just need to be aware of the times & periods in relation to triggering orders, booking profits & managing your positions. If you're oblivious to that kind of activity you can get washed out pretty quick punting off a 5min chart, or get caught up on the tail end of a rough spike or two.
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You bet we are. Why would be any different to anyone else? We might have a different view of the landscape to you, but it doesn't necessarily make our templates right & yours wrong. We just got different aims & objectives to you is all. Listen, a level is a level is a level. I see 152.0 thru 52.80 on my long range grid as a potential high value ticket north for an aggressive compound trip. I also view the southbound ticket off the 160.0 thru 61.50 ceiling channel as either a profit booking-encashment opportunity and/or a flip short play. But the level or zone is also an opportunity for the fast money to hustle their $$'s too. If you're a candle watcher, a vsa slave, a pattern junkie or an indicator druggie you got a previous zone of activity which has resulted in some sort of reactionary play, yeah? Doesn't really matter (to all extents) how the level is engaged or by what means, just that the savvy players recognize the fact it's played ball before & is maybe worth zooming in on your radar for a closer look. The various methods one chooses to engineer the entry & trade management can then be cranked up & considered. It might not offer you sufficient risk to climb aboard. Who knows, but I'd much rather be eyeballing & working out my (risk) odds from a level such as this than getting mired & tangled up in no-mans land. Do you really wanna run your race with all the uninformed, clueless gamblers, chasing their tails inside an obvious action zone? I don't think so. That's where the patience & discipline part of the deal enters the equasion. I'll try offer an example here of what I mean. I've used the candle as my choice this time as it appears a favorite of folks here. The lower pitch viewed from both the 240 & 15 offer similar trigger alarms, yeah? Like I say, if you can pitch your odds (risk) to a worthwhile calc & you got upside/downside elbow room, then you're good to trot. How you manage the gig & what kind of targets (if that's the way you operate) you slug for are obviously down to you. Ok, I come in early today to get some work done, I best get to it.
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I look for area’s of activity which have responded to & resulted in price vibration Sledge. If a line chart picks it up or it’s best represented via the extremes on a bar chart then it makes no odds to be honest. As long as I can locate it & plot it on the radar, that’s good enough for me. Never exclude any option (line or bar) when observing your hot zones. I’m essentially seeking out confirmation of probable 2 way stop activity. What I do with that information when price arrives there, is wholly dependant upon the structure of the price behaviour at the time & what’s driving it. Quite often the gap between the close/open & the extremes of a cluster of bars on & around a key s&r level will offer me a channel of interest in which most of the order flow will begin to intensify & react. To me, support & resistance (supply-demand) isn’t represented by a singular line. The general vicinity which houses each-way traffic is always layered. Strong at the immediate edge of the transactional flow (usually 10-25 pips either side of a round number or well lit level), where the heavy offers will reside at the ceiling…..bids at the floor. I’m only really interested if this repetative behaviour takes place in & around the area’s I’ve earmarked. I’m also very interested in the behaviour of price as it pops up/down to one of those area’s of interest & backs away. Where it rests & how it plays out will usually tell me a lot about the potential of the level & whose beginning to flex their muscle. .
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Oh, ok I gotcha. I see where you're at now! That's an even better job then huh? Nice trading there! Yeah, it's got legs today. They're intent on running this, but then the $/Jap has got it's wings into NY & those boys will tear it up for sure with all that stop activity building up atop the big b/o zone. Data can be erratic for sure, & as you alluded to, it's down to the firm processing the lines. Anna-Maria & a few others observe the graphs every now & again, but our activity is a little bit slower than yours, so we're not so fussed about the micro action. Appears like you & one or two others on here have certainly got it taped though regards the micro technical graph geography. Mighty impressive. If it shoves regular $$'s into your checking a/c, then that's all that matters huh?
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Yes, it slipped down sniffing out lazy trailers. Didn't do a very good job of it though as most of the (trailing stops) damage was a little farther back beyond 162.50. I guess you compounded your position at the stage on the graph below? Sensible trade, nice play They got 165 in their sights to test tough upside supply stepped to 166.50, with layered stops back to interim defense @ 163.25 back to the b/o zone @ 161.50.
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$/Jap just popped thru heavy (technical) stops at the much touted 102.75 for 103 torero. A lot of desks have been primed on that number past couple sessions. Crosses will attract 'sympathy' accompanyment, especially GBPJPY. For extra confirmation on that pair; see Sterling strength (Cable & EURGBP). EURJPY has been well bid all the way through the pipe into late NY trade, knocking on from very heavy appreciation (stops) thru the key 161.50 ceiling. Just take a looky at your technical graph re; the EY, that tells you all you need to know regards that baby. Now, if I could just drag that pain in the ass vsa thread stirrer & the rest of those bandits out of the bars, we might earn a few more commissions before the day's out
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
Art Krantz replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Let it go Andre, you made your point. Let these fella's punch it as they see fit. -
:o :o :o