JMC

I do watch volume, usually use it after I'm in a trade for confirmation and even to look for signs of exhaustion (volume spike) for possible exits. I don't enter off of the Bollinger Bands, rather I use them as a visual reference point as they seem to mark the most likely move that can be expected off of an EMA entry. Not always the case as moves can often extend far beyond the bands. However, if I'm in a trade from the EMA, I would look at any exit prior to hitting a band as premature and cutting a winning trade short.

Retest of the EMA and there she goes...

Nice bounce off of that test of the EMA in CL. Wonder if we get another 1:30pm trade into the close?

Good eyes. Most likely a little of both.

A look at some opportunities in other markets today. Several potential entries in the ES: A couple of nice bounces off of the EMA in GC:

Also, for any other oil traders on this thread, you probably like to watch what the dollar is doing intraday. DX reacts quite well with the EMA. This morning you can see a test and bounce off of the EMA around 10:25am EST. Not that I trade this contract, but I do keep an eye on it.

Couple of nice short entries this morning in CL around 10:20am and 11:15am EST. Caught the first entry and once again got to cute with my stop and was taken out +2 ticks (Need to have more patience with moving those). Missed the second entry as I had stepped away briefly. Also should be noted I got runover (- .20) buying the pullback at 9:30am. Starting to favor Brownsfan's recommendation of briefly waiting to see how price reacts to the EMA before jumping in. Got to be quick, but it worked quite well on the first short entry as I was able to get short 83.70 using only a stop loss of 6 ticks at 83.76 above the recent high. I'd much rather take a 6 tick loss as opposed to a 20 tick bludgeoning.

I feel your pain. It's one thing to lose money and get stopped out when your wrong, in fact it should be expected (it's why we use stops). But when you are correct, to get out of a trade prematurely and miss the move, the move you anticipated to begin with. That's a whole new level of anger and frustration.

Looks like I should have held that short. Another low risk opportunity to get short as we just tested the EMA again. I passed on it as I typically do not trade after 2:15pm in oil. Heading out. Everybody have a great weekend.

Almost identical type trade yesterday at almost the same time of day (1:30pm EST). Short on a test of the EMA. Didn't take it, but about a $1.30 move in 30 minutes. Got to love CL.

Thanks BF. Thank you for starting this thread. It's had a huge influence on my trading. Got lots of screenshots I could share. I'll post them as I get a chance. Apologize for the black background. For some reason I've gotten use to it.

I am also familiar w/ NoDoji on the EliteTrader thread and she is pretty damn good. Uses trend lines and channels in addition to the EMA I believe.

Good points. I have personally gone back and forth on the waiting for candle confirmation for entry and just entering with a limit at the EMA. What I like about entering at the EMA (usually front run by 3 ticks with a limit order on CL) is the ability to take small initial risk, usually .10 to .20 based on volatility and then move stops even tighter once you get the turn you've anticipated. Flip side of course is you can get run over and stopped out more than you'd like. The way I figure it is that your dealing in probabilities, and if over time you were to map out your entries and exits (just as important if not more so) you would, ideally, want to see a method that gave you the most favorable prices. Combine the fact that you can often get slippage on stop entries, as opposed to limit, and I think any edge gained by waiting on confirmation (ie. candlestick formation), and the inherent added initial risk and slippage on entry, is probably erased or at least a wash when compared to entering at the EMA. Just my thoughts. Kicking myself as we type. Shorted 83.24 in CL as it tested the EMA, moved my stop to breakeven too quickly and was taken out +.10. Now it looks like we might sell off to the close of the pit session.:crap:

No specific criteria other than I prefer markets that do have more intraday trending type movement. I've found CL to be the best in this category. Since choppy sideways action can be a problem with this method, I like to enter during times of the day where you're most likely to see vertical development; usually the first 2 to 3 hours of trading and occasionally the afternoon session. Also, it seems the best trades in terms of overall risk reward occur as the trend begins to change, i.e. downward sloping EMA is pierced by price, EMA flattens out and is retested for support, go long, and vice versa. I really like the granularity of the 1 minute chart as you can really see these reactions in price at that EMA most of the time. From my experience, you can almost always find 2 or 3 great trade entries at the EMA almost every day. Problem is, like with any method, there are also entries that either get run over and/or turn out to be losers. Though I'm still trying to get consistently profitable with this method, I believe there really is an edge here. Maybe it just takes time to develop a feel for what entries to take, and which ones to avoid? I can post some more charts later on this afternoon. Would love to get a discussion going on this thread as I believe it's one of the best on TL.

Glad to see this thread is active again. I mainly trade CL and TF and use the 20 EMA (use a 100 EMA on the 1minute time frame) as my primary tool for trading. I've come to prefer actually entering at the EMA and managing from there. It seems to work great on most futures contracts. Here's a screenshot of the 1 minute chart of Gold this morning. Perfect textbook trend day movement with a nice $13 bounce off of the EMA around 8:20 AM EST.

10-4. Thanks UrmaBlue. Sorry to offer any constructive answers. Sorry to interfere as I'm sure you and your "team" are pulling millions out of the market everyday. Keep it up Chief. Good luck.

Try putting a 100 EMA on a 1 minute, all sessions chart. Best dynamic support and resistance level I've found. Works great intraday on most futures instruments, especially those that move such as DX, 6E, GC, CL, and TF, as well as some popular stocks, DE, GS, etc. I add Bollinger Bands with 2 std. dev. from the 100 EMA and it gives me a great road map for likely price action. Works best on trending days. Also, same settings work great on the 1 hour time frame.

Sure no problem. On my laptop this weekend. I'll post on Monday when I'm back at the office.

Since we're bringing up the subject, I figured I'd add my two cents. When trading ES, I've found pivot levels, especially daily R2 and S2, when combined with confluence of readily visible support and resistance to be incredibly effective. Weekly pivot levels are even more powerful and can often stand alone w/o confluence. For instance, ES reversed at R2 yesterday around 10:00am est and sold off until lunch time, stopping at the weekly pivot at 1279.25. This weekly pivot has come into play during each of the last three trading sessions and has resulted in significant reaction in price each time. Tough part is once your in at one of these levels, you have to manage the trade. I typically enter on the first test of a level with a 2 point stop. I will sit through one additional retest (or slight breach) before moving my stop to break even once price has moved away. I've found I've come to prefer taking a full stop as opposed to bailing on a trade before it has a chance to work out. For me, I feel it's better to be more selective on when and where you enter then to micromanage the trade.

Great topic for a thread. I'm sure each trader progresses at his own pace and has breakthrough moments that takes him to the next stage. For me personally, the two biggest breakthroughs were- 1) trading simple support and resistance w/ confluence for entries 2) using all-in/all-out approach. It has made all of the difference in my trading (ES intraday).