JMC

Thanks Brownsfan. That was a monster move and I agree with your comments. I've found the edge in this setup is getting into low risk/high reward trades that are based on typical price action. You hear so much about needing a good risk reward profile in trading. But it is practically useless unless it has some basis in reality, i.e. how the market normally behaves.

Pretty interesting. Definitely no shortage of opportunities there. Oil is really moving today. Nice short entry opportunity in CL this morning at 8:11am EST. Entering at the EMA took little to no heat and moved from 82.35 to an intraday low (so far) of 80.25 in about an hour.

Great opportunity to get long this morning in CL around 10:08 am EST. Pullback test of the EMA area and then off to the races.

Not sure about the 15 minute chart, but I do experience days where the market seems to not respect the EMA (1 minute- 100 EMA) the way it typically does. However, more often than not, I do see a reaction at the EMA of some sort. Though it is not always a great trading opportunity. Today for instance, you can see from about 9:20am to 10:20am EST CL consolidated above a ledge of support at the EMA before breaking hard on heavy volume. Definitely a reaction to the EMA, but not much of a trading opportunity other than scalping. I suppose you could have traded the break of the consolidation but I always prefer selling a bounce back into the EMA. In this case, we didn't get it.

Oil has been tough today. Should have been trading the Russell. Three good entry opportunities so far. Have to see how the long entry plays out as we go into the lunch time chop.

Thanks Pat. ES can be tough sometimes. I'd encourage you to check out CL as there is a much better risk/reward profile. Some nuances I've discussed earlier. I pay attention to the time of day and prefer to trade a market that is moving with volume. Other nuances are tougher to explain. I prefer taking the first pullback after a trend change and am a little hesitant to put on a "with trend" trade towards the end of move. I'd recommend watching the 1 minute charts with the 100 EMA and watching how price reacts to this area. After some screen time, I feel like I've gotten better at being more selective on the trades I take. It may help to read up on some of the roots of this setup including: The Floor Trader Method: The Floor Trader Method Linda Raschke Holy Grail Trade: http://www.lbrgroup.com/images///raschke_pt2_0304.pdf As far as a stop loss on TF, depending on volatility, I usually use a .10 to .15 stop. However, most of my trading these days is in CL.

Three good entry opportunities in CL this morning, two long, one short. First one was an early bird special at 6:57am EST. Next two occurred at 7:54am and 9:25am. Last three sessions have been quite favorable. Getting a little choppy now.

Thanks. I definitely prefer the morning session in CL (appx. 8:30am - 11:00am EST) as that is when the volume comes in and you can almost always expect some larger moves. I also sometimes watch as we go into the last hour of the pit session and start looking for a possible entry if it presents itself around the 1:30pm EST mark.

Great day today in CL using this approach. Another opportunity to get long around 10:57am EST. Stair stepping higher. Wish every day was like this.

Some good discussion being generated regarding the use of the EMA and entry method. Thanks for all who contribute. Looks like were in for a Monday morning rebound. Two nice entry opportunities long in CL this morning. Depending on your entry method, tough to get into the first entry as it turned 2 ticks ahead of the EMA. Also, ES providing a nice entry around 9:22am EST. Took a little heat depending on entry method.

Oil getting sold today along with stocks. Two nice entries at the EMA into a couple of large moves around 8:50am and 11:34am EST.

That's a good observation. There are many winning entries that look obvious in hindsight. However, in real time, there are many entries at or near the EMA that would result in getting stopped out more frequently than you'd expect. Obviously, you could increase your winning percentage by waiting for some type of confirmation (ie. candlestick pattern). But, of course, you get the tradeoff of taking more intial risk, i.e. larger intial stop loss. In terms of MAE/MFE, I think it would be very helpful to keep track of these stats. My experience in CL has been that an intial stop loss of in the range of -.15 to -.20 and a target of +.60 to +.80 seems to capture most typical moves. However, we all know that typical doesn't always happen as every day is somewhat unique.