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Everything posted by Ingot54
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The indicators used have been chosen after a lot of tweaking and experimentation with settings and effectiveness for the TF employed. I have proven the settings over time, but if you can do a better job with your tweaks, then please go ahead, but feel free to share the advantages you found so that we can participate in your enlightenment ADX CROSSES: These are the red and blue arrows you see on your chart. They are NOT entry signals, because they indicate ONE 4H candle too late for that kind of purpose. They may repaint - but that does not affect us at the time because of the other indicators we will have confirming. Refreshing the .tpl ... or changing the TF to another one, and back again, will usually reset the arrows if inappropriate. What they do: These alert us visually to the crossing of the 14-period ADX, signaling a change in trend ... or ... an improving/weakening trend as the DMi+ crosses the DMI-. ADX Indicator Alarm: Invisible on charts, but activated ONLY on the 4H chart on the template supplied. What it does: Sends an audio AND a visual alert pop-up box to your trading screen to let you know that one of your pairs has had a change of trend on the 4H.ks exactly the same as the red/blue arrows - both set to the 14-period ADX, and the alert default is set to "on." You can turn it off - just ask if you want to stop using it and I will explain how it is done. Some people find these popups very annoying - others live and die by them. Parabolic PSAR: These are the green and brown dots on the charts. What they do: They are not used to give a strict signal, but when used in conjunction with the 15M - 1H - 4H charts, they signal the end of a pullback and the resumption of the dominant trend. These give you the very finely tuned entry that allow you to trade the higher TF without the huge SL we spoke about in an earlier post. The PSAR settings are different for every TF. Why? Because we want them to be as reactive to moves in price as possible, without incurring whipsaws unnecessarily. Whipsaws happen - but we do not tempt them. That is why we do NOT use the default PSAR settings. The settings I use are my own, worked out by trial and error. MACD 4,21,1,5: Momentum Indicator with finely tuned settings, and coloured to give advance warning of change in momentum. What it does: The settings have been changed from the default indicator, to give us a faster crossover of the MA's, and confirm trend. The crossover of the 2 small MA's on the indicator, tell us that the change is happening, and should be confirmed by other indicators. STOCHASTIC: Overlaid in the MACD window. What it does: The settings are 14.3.3 for a good reason. Won't go into it here, but the levels set are 23.6 and 76.4 ... supposedly Fibonacci levels. Signals are strong when Stochastic crosses these levels in the appropriate direction - more later. Very powerful combo with MACD and TDI, as explained later. I have removed the "D%" period line from visibility, because we are not working from the K%/D% crosses, but the 23.6/76.4 level crosses. Other stuff ...: I have attached a clock to the charts to tell how many minutes/seconds remain until the next new candle. Also you will see the ADR on the Daily chart only, indicating the ADR over the past 5 days, and also telling how far the range has moved for the current day. That's all there is to this. Set up your charts, and the rest is in your head! I am certain this will trigger a few questions about how I find and trade the setups, and when I opt out of a setup altogether. Note that the files are inside the .rar file attached. If you can not open the file, you can download a free RAR file from the Internet that will allow you to access the files within. Ingot54 Template.rar
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OK - here is a screen grab of one of my desktop work areas, and below it is a shot of the 4H chart of EURUSD, showing the indicators used. In the next post I will post up the indicators and template for you, and explain why each was considered, and what its function is expected to be. After that, we'll have a break - I have family and trading of my own to attend to.
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We being to get into some meat. Please complete the poll above post #1 - it will greatly assist in the way I explain what is happening if I am aware of the kind of interest the readership has in this. Some of you will already have worked out that I trade the 4H TF, based on the trend elicited from the higher TF - ie WEEKLY and MONTHLY. I do not trade those TF - I just use them in determining trend for using in 4H TF trades. "Oh!" ... I can hear a lot of clicking as some of you prepare to switch off - after all, don't you need Biiiig stop losses to trade the higher TF? Who told you that? Have you proved that yourself? Let me tell right here ... right now ... that NO it is not necessary to use huge SL (stop loss) in order to successfully trade the higher TF (time frame). Look at my DD (draw-down) in the current contest :- 6.13%. OK ... from another angle - if a wide SL bothers you, then why do you tolerate losing account after account, trading the noisy, scalping TF? What is preferable - using a wider SL (more margin) or losing your trade ... or worse ... your account? Which is more forgiving of an error in trading - the 5M or the 4H? In which TF does spread, slippage and requotes affect you more - the 5M or the 4H? In which TF can you potentially make 400+ pips - the 5M or the 4H? Do you like sitting in front of the computer all day, wasting your health and maybe losing touch with family relationships, while you struggle for those piddling little 5 and 20-pip trades? If so, then move along please - nothing to see here. I don't intend to start a discussion about which TF is "the best." On the other hand, if setting and forgetting appeals to you, with optimum entry, minimal draw-down and a sense of relaxation and success in your trading, then read on, join in, and learn something you can apply with confidence. You will never again go back to scalping ... unless you are already accomplished in that, and hopelessly addicted to it :haha: Here we are going to exclusively enter trades on the 4H chart ... but as the indicators I use are also calibrated to lower TF, we will use those as tools to fine tune where our entry is most likely to make pips. In that sense, the lower TF form a part of the trading strategy - they are not the trading strategy. The goal for this thread is to show you principles that work, and to actually give you the tools and setups to begin with. Everything I use has a place ... and a purpose ... and deserves its place in the list. In the next post, I will drop in the indicators I use, and the template that activates them in the way I trade. Then I will begin a series of posting charts, showing how each of the indicators is used, why, and what it looks like when set up correctly on the chart. This stuff is not hard.
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What do we create merely for the pleasure of watching it get destroyed? ... and afterwards ...
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Ok - I'd like to clarify a couple of things. Please do NOT look at my record in the current Forex Trading Contest and expect to be able to emulate that just by following what we discuss here. Reason? I am trading ridiculously large volumes - using little risk management, and exposing myself to large draw-down with each trade. At the end of the contest I will tally up the number of pips I made - even if I crash and burn, and I will guarantee that per trade, I will not have done as well as other contestants with better Sharpe Ratios (don't be concerned if you don't understand it - it's a bell-and-whistle thing for traders). So why am I doing better this time around in the contest? 1) Luck 2) I have been able to watch for longer, and close my trades more appropriately 3) I do have some skills 4) I do have a good strategy This thread will get some momentum shortly, but for now, here are a couple of links to provide background to where I am coming from: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-markets/9057-breakthroughs-led-trading-improvement-success.html#post109081 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/9278-your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise.html Now - I am in the middle of trading live ... and for the contest ... so it's steady going here. But shortly I will post some indicators and a template you can use, along with an explanation of how I do what I do. So you will be getting about 10% of the trading requirements for success. You could substitute any indicators/charts etc, and still only have 10% of what you will need. The rest of the stuff we discuss and do, will grow that percentage for you - for some it will be rapid, and for others, it will be conservative growth ... but grow you will.
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Have to say this - very nice work, TradeRunner - your numbers are outstanding. Pip-for-pip and $$-for-$$ you are beating me hands down in this contest. If you traded the volume I do, your profit would be around 190% now. Well done!
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As promised - a thread has been started to discuss my trading strategy. No big claims - I have enough humble pie in the fridge already! http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html
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OK - got your attention - let's deliver on the deal! On this thread I plan to work with other traders, to come to a better understanding of how to approach trading in just one of many ways. Successfully. ie trading with longevity ... and perhaps if you can grasp the principles ... you might achieve a lot more than mere longevity in the markets. The Retail Forex Market began growing quietly in the new millennium, but it had been possible to trade through your own bank since perhaps the 1970's. I became aware of online trading in 2004, though it had been operating quite a long time before that. I made my first online trades in March 2004 - 9 years ago now - trading equities through a bank, using no leverage. Today, if you are reading this, it is likely that you are using the retail forex market to generate income for yourself through currency trading using leverage, rather than through your own bank.That's if you enjoy the hands-on approach to trading. You can always use a fund ... up to you ... your money. End of history lesson. You will need the tools of your trade: Trading platform, data feed, broker, indicators, money management plan, business plan, journal, strategy, experience ... (what's that you say ... "experience"?) ... and ...MONEY ... once you are ready to trade "live". You already have a computer terminal ... and hopefully a machine with enough grunt to process the data feed, and a couple of screens (one is really enough) to expand your desktop working real estate. Of course you will also need other help - some kind of mentorship, of which the Internet is a very rich source, through forums such as Traders Laboratory. Most traders cut their trading teeth in such places. The canny traders worked out early that the best way learn, was under the mentoring of another successful trader, and were willing to pay for that. Others were quick to recognise "what works" and began trading profitably after their self-taught apprenticeship - of whatever time that took. That's about all the preamble we need to discuss at the outset. Happy to elaborate on any of the above at any time - I just think it is a bit redundant to be going over stuff most of have known for years, though new traders are encouraged to ask - we have all been there, and the vulnerable feelings are understood. Feel free to register your interest in the thread. I have an approach that I am going to teach/discuss. I would like to keep the thread "pure" for the purposes outlined above, so while questions are welcome, side-issues will not be given much oxygen. The thread will be strong on principles that work, with a sprinkling of actual examples. Traders Laboratory has threads dedicated to the discussion of specific currency trading, and we can utilise those later on for live or demo trading. I have commitments in my real life, so will try to respond quickly. I live in a GMT +10 time zone and occasionally sleep too! Feel free to ask questions for further clarification.
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Still on the nutso conspiracy trail ... but there is some truth in EVERY jest ... Watch until 1:08 where Matty Damon really begins to let it fly!
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How many have watched Kevin Costner in "Field of Dreams"? This clip is not only pivotal to the movie ... I believe it has a message pivotal to each of us in the struggles to be overcome in our march through life. 2 choices ... 2 outcomes ... one human spirit.
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OptionTimer - coming from you that really does mean a lot. Thank you.
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I am in possession of the HG ... yes I am. But I did not find "it" ... "it" found me. It is "my" Grail, and can not be shared. Each must attract their own Grail. It will come to you, but you need to present the right kind of conditions that attract it ... just as I did. Patience - with yourself and with the market Persistence in your belief in yourself and your dream Commitment to education Focus on your goal Ruthlessness in discarding the mythology of trading (ie the things that do not work) Consistency in application of your plan Methodically apply your rules In fact I think I could do a far better job of showing you how to attract your own HG, by directing you to this thread: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/9278-your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise.html There is a lot there ... so allow yourself a few days to absorb it. Finally, in a few days I will be starting a new thread, which addresses more of the things that you can apply practically, to make an immediate difference to your trading results. I hope I am not coming across in an arrogant fashion - the Internet can make things appear thus. By sheer good luck more than anything, I found the trades and got the entries that brought me to this place. In the next 4 weeks, I hope to continue to attract that kind of trade to my notice. To those who are not currently making startling profits ... help is at hand ... do not give up. Cheers Ingot
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Another reason to enjoy the Internet and modern technology. Thanks for that gem.
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The bottom line is: You have no way to be certain your broker is honest. Go with long-established firms. Keep your account lean. Read posts #6 and #7 - pretty much sums it up. Beware who you believe: Nongqawuse - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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And that, my friends, is the moral of the story. Human nature. Greed. A virus that affects us all, in one form or another. Greed = fear of future lack. Think MF Global and PFG Best. Whatever the reasons they paint on it - these brokers did not care about the security of their clients. No broker does. Segregated funds? Don't make me laugh! The funds are only segregated so they remain intact when the secured creditor gets first call on the assets of the bankruptee ... that is ... your broker! In addition to conceding a possible deficit at the broker-dealer, the latest plan narrows recovery ranges for holders of MF Global's $2.2 billion in unsecured claims. Such creditors, which include the Silver Point group, are now projected to recover between 13.4 percent and 38.9 percent of claims, a range that had been pegged at between 11.5 percent and 41.5 percent in the earlier plan. The updated proposal specifies that lender JPMorgan Chase & Co will recover all of its roughly $7.8 million in secured setoff claims against MF Global units, and that an unsecured liquidity facility, for which JPMorgan was a key lender, will recover between 13.4 and 38.9 percent of its $1.15 billion claim. MF Global Customers Will Get Most of Their Money Back: Freeh
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Candlestick patterns are far less effective than they used to be, imho. I find them less reliable as PA indicators, as so many of the moves in price are now driven by economic and political imperatives, as opposed to market pressures. Now you could argue that the political and economic drivers have always had an influence, but you would get strong disagreement on that point from me. Whenever you have politicians affecting markets for the purposes of their agenda, you will get knee-jerk activity, and that can not be seen "developing" in candlestick patterns. Take for example the current determined weakening in currencies of the major countries - particularly USA, Europe and Japan. The zig-zagging going on every time Mario Draghi, Ben Bernanke and his cohorts, and Shinzo Abe open their mouths. This stuff is calculated to move the markets ... and it does ... often unforeseen, and unheralded by any candlestick pattern that I know of. One tool that I am resorting to, to combat this erratic volatility, is the line chart. You might just as well have asked: What is your favourite line chart :rofl: :rofl: Draghi comments knock euro, yen resumes broad falls | Reuters But seriously - the line chart based on the closing price - independent of time frame largely, is an excellent tool from which to draw Fibonacci levels, for example. Today, I place higher importance on lines than I do on candlesticks ... sadly another casualty in a world obsessed with disrupting the stability of markets - regardless of how much the manipulators talk about preserving the market. Some strive to preserve it ... others scheme to use those efforts to destructively exploit it. Such is life - play out here with us at your peril!
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If you have 15 minutes today to enrich your life ... this is probably a good place to use that 15 minutes. As it goes further, it gets better, but the finale is amazing. Enjoy ...
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Brilliant example of what happens when someone comes to the markets more keen to make money than they are to learn the method. That would have been me at the beginning too ... and I paid some dues ... oh Yeah! And still pay some! Good judgement Comes from Experience Experience comes from Bad judgement
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Professional surfer Marti Paradisis won the Big Wave award in Sydney on 14th February, for this monster ride - 9 metres! https://vimeo.com/54347671#at=0 Marti got $AUD20,000 for a life-time, and 40 seconds work! Keen surfies can read more about the event, off Tasmania's south coast - at Pedra Branca - here: Marti Paradisis wins 'Biggest Wave' at 2013 Oakley Big Wave Awards. And credit for the heads-up from the Australian Broadcasting Commission for airing the footage to begin with: Tasmanian surfer scoops big wave award - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Well done, Marti - - how does he do it? And did you hear his ape mates go ... well ... ape!
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Gekko - there is one thing far more powerful than all the computer power in the world ... more irresistible than 100 speeding locomotives ... more deadly than the most-skilled of 1,000 snipers ... and more authoritative than all the presidents in the world. It is ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... a wife! With three terse, curt words, she could have saved LTCM and Knight Capital ... Stop. Trading. NOW! Worked for me.
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D'oh! Of course ... thanks mate! There are always broader ways to see things. btw - my post above should have read: " I started in the contest late for various reasons... " ... it didn't make a lot of sense otherwise. Cheers - GL in the contest. Ingot
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Agree with Mystic, BlueBay - excellent insights, and thanks for sharing those views. It all resonates with me and my own trading experience. (Hope you didn't mind my abridgement of your great post) btw - I would definitely sell my strategy ... if I could price it right ... $47 ... $97 ... $197 ... :rofl: It would take me three minutes to explain it, and another three minutes to get the client set up. After that I would rest secure in the knowledge that he would not trade it past his first loss. Anyone who has to purchase a strategy is not trying and not reading decent forums enough. But a trader who has a useful strategy that is making money for them, has already done his homework.
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Thanks Mystic. I started in the contest for various reasons, and for continuing reasons will not be able to take part much. I note that I have only made 3 trades ... but for counting purposes it appears that an entry is one trade, and an exit is another trade. So it prints that I have made 6 trades. It seems that those contestants who are showing an odd number of trades, still have a trade open in the market at the time of your screen grab. Just a little more trivia from me, which you have all come to look forward to! :rofl:
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Bit of fantasy? True?
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This is one I got today when activating a gift card from Bob Collett Industries! I cut out a small screen grab of part of Bob's terms and conditions ...