Ingot54

Finally we come to the lowest TF that we consider ... the 15M. It is not really necessary to focus on too much here - and the reason we consider it at all, is to refine our entry, to limit draw down. Nothing else. As long as you can identify the trend and the pullback, then the issue of locating the point of resumption of the trend is not too hard at all. That is the sole purpose of the PSAR dots - and tbh we do not really need them on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly at all. Currently I have them displayed on the Daily and lower TF. I have to say here that it is a natural inclination of all of us to not miss pips when the trend begins to move in our favour. But this only gets us into trouble. What would you prefer - a trade that hits our SL ... or a trade that does not enter until the trend is clearly under way? I know what I prefer. So how do we overcome this? Perhaps the easiest and safest way, is to look for a level at which you would be most comfortable in declaring that the down trend has resumed, and place a contingent sell order there. You could then check in every 4 hours or so to see if your order has been taken, and manage the trade further from there. The only other way I know of, is to sit at the computer and stare until you go batty! That is not a life. Missing a few pips in order to establish a safe entry is far preferable to making yourself tired and grumpy while waiting for a trade to mature. I have had a computer freeze since posting the above, and price has hardly moved. Here is the 15M with a bit of a comment. So until I am able to see something worth posting, I will just let the market do its usual things, and wait.

As we have discovered, there is no rush at all to get into this trade. The price activity has become range-bound (congested) in the 1H chart, and until it breaks either up or down, there is little use attempting to guess an entry. What I have shown so far, is my reasoning, according to what I am seeing in the charts, and according to how the indicators I have built into this, are functioning. The signs we will need to be seeing here, are not so much a break of support - I do not look consciously at least, for these levels in this strategy. I look for the other signs that the resumption of the down trend is happening, and that is the formation of the brown PSAR dots ABOVE price, signifying the down trend is starting. This will start in the 15M first (I disregard the 5M because it is too noisy). We will see a series of dots in the 15M above price, followed by at least 2 dots above price in the 1H chart. Then we will begin to see the PSAR down trend in the dots on the 4H. That simplifies it a lot - however, there is more to this than the dots. We need to be seeing the stochastic 14.3.3 crossing downwards through the 76.4 level as well. And we have not begun to look at MACD yet. from my experience, I would have to say that the next chance for a short trade, will come after the stochastic on the 1H goes above the 76.4, and then turns and clearly breaks down through that level. That could be a couple of hours away, so we are simply have to wait, and stalk this trade, if it is to come to anything. The 1H chart is uninspiring.

Ok - it looks like we will have plenty of time to get ready for this trade, so will slow it down a little. Below I have posted charts of both the Daily and 4H GBPJPY. Both charts are showing a rally. After the sell-off of the GBP in recent days, it is understandable that we have some kind of rebound rally. What we need to be watchful for, is that this may be a turning point in the pair. After all, we have a new quarter in the year, March, and a new month. Anything is possible. On the weekly chart we can see a long-tailed candle, indicating the recovery at the end of last week.Today, that rally did noit go much further, and at this point, we have a doji candle, with a little over 9 hours to go before my Daily candle closes. We are needing the daily price to begin to drop now, but we take what the market dictates. I mentioned this so that traders do not think: "Wait a bit - I thought we were following the higher TF, and yet we are looking for a short, when the Daily and 4H are in a rally." Yes, we are looking to short, and yes these TF are in a rally. If you were one who was puzzled by this, perhaps this is why you are constantly puzzled when the market runs against you. Let's hope we can demonstrate our case here, and the rally is NOT the beginning of a turnaround. It could happen, so we delay our entry until we have the kind of confirmation we need.

OK - I will have to be fairly quick to deliver these posts before the setups disappear. Nothing wrong with that, but we could be missing our entries if I can not illustrate the setup first. Below is the Monthly and Weekly charts of the GBPJPY, to illustrate the trend is strongly down. The weekly at this point in time is showing a doji candle, but the trend is not nullified by this.

It's hard to provide answers to those kinds of Q's ... you just take what the market gives, and I hope to demonstrate how I trade this, while remaining open to harsh critique if so be, and/or suggestions to improve the approach. Right now I am going to look at the GBPJPY which is in a pull-back from its downtrend. This is live stuff, so I hope price does not move too quickly and blur the lines before I get charts annotated and posted. I'll probably answer a lot of your Q's during this next post or two.

It's all cool Mr_Black ... this thread has had a bit of history and is just getting established as a regular thing. No miff was intended I am certain. And your participation and interest has also been appreciated - we all have a lot to learn. I'll follow your trading - impressive - and welcome you back for the April comp if you'd still like to come and kick ass!

I didn't say so - it was a question. But I take it as a joke - the thread is a light-hearted laugh at ourselves.

Baker - was your statement meant to be another "Last words of a trader"? Probably the best I've read so far.

Thank you BlueHorseshoe. I look forward to all Q's but do appreciate the space to develop the first set-up and walk-through, before the onslaught I don't want to get sidetracked before we really have something to look at and discuss. If people have questions already (I'd be surprised if the afore-going hasn't stimulated some), then please write them down. If they get answered as we go - good, but doing that will also teach you something about the way you think and see things, before they are explained. Looking back at past attitudes is a great mind-opener for the future. In about 10 to 12 hrs from the time of this post, I will have slept off my night shift, and be looking at a chart or two - maybe several, in order to step through a set-up and if we are fortunate, we might even see a trade we can enter. I have to be honest here - I do appreciate all feedback, because there are still sections of my strategy with which I struggle - particularly exits, as mentioned earlier. I hope some traders who have been in this predicament are able to step in and guide the way we handle them. While it is "my" strategy at present, I am hoping it can also become "our" strategy when a bit of wise experience from old hands looking on, can be brought to bear, to significantly improve it. I am hoping not to let anyone down with this, but I assure you we will get some good trades out of this, and a pattern to follow that will change the way you see the markets, and take advantage of what you see setting up. By the way - I answered Henry by saying I trade only 6 pairs - this is true. But that does not mean you can not have 20 on your watch list, and pick the eyes out of them to find the best trade. I only keep 6 going, because I find that is enough for me to concentrate on, and a trade well-done is worth a dozen half-done.

Probably one of the weaknesses of the strategy as it stands. Taking exits has been difficult for me, since everywhere people are saying: "let your profits run." I wonder how many of these people actually trade ... or are actually profitable themselves? I can tell you this honestly worries me in every trade - perhaps sharing the strategy here will help uncover the solution to this. What I usually do is take a look for weakness in the trend, and if there is "enough" taken out of the trend, I close. I can tell you I leave plenty behind, and want to learn how to take better exits. I usually let the markets do what they like on Sunday night/Monday ... around the first 8 to 12 hours usually, because Forex has taken to gapping-and-reversing every week on the open, and I want that to settle down first - it is false activity generally. Forex never used to have gaps - it was very rare - now it is common and expected. Not usually - I want to have a life. Because I worry about cataclysmic events these days - eg Mario Draghi and his big mouth, Greece, Cyprus etc - I find I am more relaxed being out of the market. And of course most market-moving news comes out of the USA on weekends, and this can have an adverse effect on my positions - why risk damage? Easy one:EURUSD - EURJPY GBPUSD - GBPJPY AUDUSD - AUDJPY I will usually only trade one of these at a time - the best one in my judgement. Another easy one: I eyeball the 6 pairs, and choose the one that is showing things like ... strongest trend, most to move to complete ADR and so on - factors that work FOR me ... not against me. I follow the calendar at Forex Factory, and have tweaked that display to display only moderate (orange) and high impact (red) news events. Having said that, I take little notice of the actual news, as far as making a trading decision. markets have been perverse since the GFC - traders want to do the risk-on/risk-off thing ... but we no longer know what that will be, like we did in 2005 - 2007. News used to be 'good or bad' for an economy, and markets moved accordingly. Now it is this "buy the USD ... sell the USD" safe-haven rubbish. There are no real traders any more - just gamblers, or people using inside information ... just my view. You will notice with news, that after all the froth and bubble settles after the event, that price continues the SAME trend it did before. It might be 20 pips higher or lower ... or more ... but the same trend is still in place. If you have a large enough stop, you can tolerate the volatility, but I can't do that - I prefer to be out of the market when strong news announcements are due. A lot of times the market jumps around when there is no news to back that up, and you will read on Bloomberg - hours too late - that the president of this/that bank said something controversial. Recently it was some silly understudy of the BOJ said something that sent the JPY pairs crazy ... then a more senior person refuted the statement, and things calmed down. Was that intentional? Can you predict or foresee these things? No - then that is why I like the 4H TF - you are mostly immune from the smaller rubbish, but can stay in a decent, strong trend.

No - it was only me. I noticed at first that the chat box opened when clicking on "Forums" on the tool bar. I thought that I had landed on the "Chat" page again. But when scrolling down I saw that I was indeed on the "Forums" page. I can live with it, but can not see the use for a chat box that everyone can see. I can use Skype for that, and it is private. Might as well just stick to using the threads the comments should be in anyway. I have disabled the ability for others to see when and to whom I send PM's too. Thanks MMS Ivan

Trader commits suicide after killing 12 in gun spree | World news | guardian.co.uk Some people would be better sticking to cards! Trading is too violent!

Thank you for the Q Henry. I use a variable SL - between 50 and 100 pips away from entry. This varies depending on the strength of the trend prior to the pullback, and the proximity to news events and so on. I regard trading as an "art" in that it is difficult for a trader to simply follow the instructions in black and white, and expect to come out winning. That is the intent. The reality is different because of the infinite variability of market activity. I am not a guru - I am a trader who has struggled to get something together over the years that actually works for me. I wouldn't be surprised if it can be shown that there are lots of weaknesses in my strategy - I don't think that is the case though. Some trades get going straight into positive territory from entry - zero draw down. Others move 30 pips or more further, before resuming the direction indicated by the higher TF. How long have I tested this? I began getting this stuff together 18 months ago, and have spent most of that time working towards getting to break-even. Now I find that with using the lower TF to nail the pullback/resumption points a little better, that I am making pips. For example, in the trading contest I do not think I have gone more than 10% draw-down, and have not had a losing trade. Mystic hasn't put the latest figures up for awhile, but my a/c is sitting at +146% after about 14 trades, with no losses. The figures will show 28 trades or something, but it counts an open and a close as 2 trades. I should mention here also that I closed MANY of those trades before they really got going properly - ie they didn't get the chance to really run before I closed them for weekends, news etc. With more experience I could take a hands-off approach and do better. To answer the Q in a short way - no back-testing ... all forward and mostly small live trades. I do not personally believe in back-testing - but agree some people swear by it. EDIT: And it is us that is going to be nailing these moves

Hi Jivanjiao Sorry I did not get back to you earlier about this. It is outside the scope and intent of this thread to discuss installing indicators, as most people using MT4 are already familiar with the process. However, I Googled the question "How to load indicators in MT4" and here is one useful response: How to install MT4 Indicators? - Forex Trading | MetaTrader Indicators and Expert Advisors There are also Youtube examples. The easiest way is to place all indicators and templates you want to load on to your desktop, and then open "Computer/hard Disc Drive (where the MT4 file is stored)/ Then open the MT4 file, where you will see a list including "experts" ... and further down the list ... "Templates." This is where the .tpl file goes - just drag it into the window. The rest of the files go into "Experts/Indicators" Note: When you double click on "experts" there is another "templates" folder in there - DO NOT PLACE the .tpl files in there, or you will not be able to see it in the list, when you open MT platform. I can not help you further than this - I suggest you have a look at : School of Pipsology How to Use MetaTrader*4 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/beginners-forum/2427-how-import-indicators-templates-into-mt4.html EDIT: Once installed, open the platform and look for the folder icon with a star, on the top toolbar - this is the "navigator" folder, where your indicators are stored - just use your mouse to drag and drop them onto the open chart, and a box will open allowing any customising. The template will be found on the top folder under the "templates" icon (appears like a chart symbol). On the drop-down menu under "templates" you click on the "Ingot54_4H" template, and your chart will be instantly changed to the correct formation. Note: Once you have the indicators installed into "Experts/Indicators" folder, you do not have to actually place them onto any charts - this happens automatically if you use the template function, because the template is going to use only those indicators that were "saved" into it, when it was constructed by me. Hope this helps.

I have this thread on ignore now, and will keep it that way. But I have come to believe that all this thread has done is show us a mirror, and in there, we can see our fears. Few of us have been able to recognise that a fear-response is NOT the solution. Nor is passively lying down while "they" come for you - even if "they are NOT "coming for you" ... the fear exists that "they" might! There are solutions to these kinds of problems facing mankind - here in the USA ... here in Australia ... here in the Middle East ... here in Mexico ... here in * (insert your plot of ground) ... My wife dragged me to view this with her this afternoon ... on her desktop. Of much I was already aware ... in fact most ... 98% perhaps. But the best part was the HOPE it left me with, as a reward for watching it through to the end. It is no use being defensive - that only gives "them" more power. We must learn to become proactive. And harmless in our proaction, so that we intelligently reduce the threats that present themselves to us though the violence born of other people's fears. We can take action to neutralise the violence and grow a healthy, thriving planet - something that we can be truly proud of. I intend to, and I will quietly encourage my friends and workmates who are also filled with fears for their futures, to do the same. Open up your heart, let your spirit respond, let out the potential within, and let the oppression lift. Take hope and hold on to it. [Look for the segment where two, murderous rival gangs made peace with each other] Warning - not for everyone. The Movie - An unconventional documentary that lifts the veil on what's REALLY going on in our world by following the money upstream -- uncovering the global consolidation of power in nearly every aspect of our lives. | Thrive There is a trailer to watch first if you like ... or jump straight in to 2 hrs of a new approach. I think we have the answer now ... whether "To arm or to Disarm"

From the fun ... to the important and the serious. In my quest to leave this world in a far better state than I found it (but not going anywhere soon ) I invite you to first of all view the trailer of this movie. If you already know what this is about, but have not had an opportunity to view the full movie, please set aside an easy 2 hours, and watch ... listen ...hear ... and resolve to act in whatever way you can. I do not regret giving up 2 hours to hear probably the most important message to meet my ears in 60+ years! The Movie - An unconventional documentary that lifts the veil on what's REALLY going on in our world by following the money upstream -- uncovering the global consolidation of power in nearly every aspect of our lives. | Thrive

Very nice trading there, Mr_Black Well done. Which contest is this - I didn't see it on TL anywhere. Is it a TL contest? I think your pip count alone in one day has eclipsed all of mine for the month of February!

Well ... I've had a change of heart ... I'm sharing ... and I'm sharing my strategy publicly. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html'>http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html Let's see who can do what now. :missy: Let's put a few theories to the test, and see how willing and able people are, to follow a method that is working quite well. Let's see my strategy fail now because 400,000 people will now be using it, and it will no longer work profitably. :rofl: Let's see the brokers changing things so the strategy doesn't work any more. What I am thinking is that we may see people UNABLE to help themselves - they may want to tweak, change, add, subtract, detract from and add to the approach, until it no longer resembles the original. The theories are now under the microscope. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/15784-how-trade-foreign-exchange-market-forex.html

When I click on "Forums" the Chat box comes up. (Appreciate the facility btw) Is the link corrupted? Can not access "Forums" Cheers Ingot54

Finally ... the proof you have all been waiting for ... Ingot54 is a complete mug! Bob Collett - do not say a damn word!

In any trading strategy, there are rules. Some are very rigid, and some are to be treated more like principles, that you do not break. Treating rules like principles does, however, give us scope to use discretion, as long as we do not overstretch our experience quotient! Remember that. Some people here are very close to giving up on trading. I understand, having been through that about 2 years ago. It was a time of anxiety for me, as I had spent a lot of money and time trying to get this trading working. All I can say is to hang around here, and see if this strategy can help you. Stop whatever trading you are trying until you can see if this is something workable for you. The space in your head has to be right, and getting into something different may just work. Now - I have posted a few charts below. I have a 23-inch monitor, so I have a good view of the charts. In the first pic, there are six charts. This is the basic setup. You will have the following charts: Monthly weekly Daily 4H 1H 15M If you place the template on the chart exactly as I have supplied it, you will see that I have set some windows differently form others. This is adjusted in the "Indicators/Edit/Visualisation" section of the template, and is located by right clicking the chart, and selecting "Indicators List" 3rd down from the top of that drop-down menu. I advise not to change anything there, though you can't do any harm ... you can always refresh the template to restore my defaults. Feel free to customise the appearance though - I realise my charts are not everyone's visual dream! Once you have examined the Monthly and the Weekly charts, you will know the trend, and no longer need these charts. We will never trade against the trend. We will always only trade in the trend direction. Counter trend traders are skilled tacticians - not for us at this basic level - even if you see a "nice setup." Why? Because when price is falling, for example, it will have MORE falls than rises, and those falls will be swifter and yield more pips-per-move than the counter-trend pullbacks. But the counter-trend rallies have an extremely important place in our strategy. It is these little pullbacks that provide us with our entries. Master the counter-trend entry points, and you will succeed as a trader. Simple as that. Now - here are the charts - basic setup, then determining the trend, then the working screen. From this point onwards, I will continue using the EURUSD as an example of the trades we can accomplish using this strategy. In the next post, I will go back and select a setup that has already occurred, and step through it. This may stimulate a few questions, so feel free to interject at any time - we are not in a hurry. We need to get this right for you, the trader ... and we will.

Those are the main indicators. I have carried over a couple of other indicators I use - the PSAR and the Traders Dynamic Index (TDI). I still use them for confirmation of signals, but it is likely we can clean up the charts a little - remove them - and still not lose much by their absence. * PSAR : This is an old favourite of mine, but many traders miss the brilliance of it. I do not use it to enter/exit trades the way it was originally designed to do. I use it to tell me where on the lower TF the trend is moving. For example - if we have an uptrend in the 4H chart, but a downtrend in the 1H chart, we are looking at the pullback we need to get into the trend. So we drop down to a lower TF - the 15M chart, to see what thje PSAR is doing there. If we have a resumption appearing on the 15M chart, we wait until we also see 2 dots of the PSAR appearing also on the 1H chart (= 2 candles). That is our signal for entry. More info: Introduction To The Parabolic SAR * TRADERS DYNAMIC INDEX : This is a collection of indicators so arranged as to give reliable signals It is a system in itself, but we are only concerned with the crossover of two of the lines. It is particularly reliable on the 4H chart, and the actual speed and angle of the crossover can be extremely indicative of the strength of the move we want to trade. For more info, see the attached .pdf below. I also have a clock to countdown to the end of the bar - you can choose to remove it from appearing if you find it too much clutter to bother with. Further, I have included the ADR indicator, and an audio and pop-up alert for the ADX crosses, so that you have a faster heads-up if a signal arrives. Later I'll begin looking at some trades, and as we go, explain how each piece of the strategy exists symbiotically. Don't forget to use the poll at the top of the thread - We do not really need to qualify ourselves if we don't feel comfortable doing so. And no one can see - even me - who checked which part of the poll - it is totally discreet. Dean Malone E.A.S.Y. Trading Method.pdf

Ok - let's move along a little. One of the first things to do, is to bust everyone's favourite myth: "The trend is your friend." I'm here to tell you: THE TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND Look - as traders, we want nothing more than to get aboard a nice trend, The problem is, by the time you spot the trend, it is far too late - your ideal entry point has vanished, and you are chasing the trade. This is where the indicators come in. The ones I have chosen are there for good reason: They help identify: * the trend * the strength of the trend and * the slowing and turning of the trend. More importantly, they can help pinpoint the beginning of the trend, which most traders would consider to be some sort of prized mythical cup In post #5 above, I have given you the indicators listed there. I will quickly explain why they have been chosen, and their strengths and limitations. If we are to be mechanical traders, we need to understand the tools and how to use them. Nothing is perfect, and so we need to also be able to use what I call "informed discretion" and this can only come through experience - sorry if anyone thought trading stuff was easy. Simple? Yes. Easy? Depends ... Let's begin. Our indicators will tell us the trend's beginning and turning points most of the time, but not always, so we are needing a filter or two to give us the highest probability of finding and riding a good trend. * ADX Crosses: These are the red and blue arrows you see on the 4H charts. Note that they are NOT signals to enter trades, because not only do they appear after the candle closes and the new one begins, they can repaint. We need to dispel the myth of repainting indicators, lagging indicators and so on, because they all have their place in trading, and certainly I am making good use of them in this strategy. If there has been a change of trend in a new candle, the arrow will NOT appear until the DMI+ has crossed the DMI- in either direction. All the arrow does is tell us that. ADX itself is an indication of the strength of the trend, but this is not what we are using here. How we use the indicator will be come clear once we get into the actual setup side of this ... (coming ... it's coming) ... More info: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-dictionary/12204-adx-definition.html * MACD: The particular MACD we are using for this strategy has been chosen because of its early warning features. MACD is one of the best indicators of momentum we have. It can also act as an oscillator, but its main purpose is to tell us when a trend is insitu, or not, and visually we can see how much momentum that trend has. The particular MACD I use, can be customised to show us the very early hints of any alteration in the trend. It has multi-coloured bars to further illustrate what is happening. More info: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-dictionary/12219-macd-definition.html * Stochastic: Perhaps the most popular and reliable oscillator available. It generally consists of two lines, and traders get warning of the slowing of an old trend, or the beginning of a new trend after consolidation conditions in the chart. In my strategy, I have made one of the lines invisible because we are not acting on the crossing of the lines of the stochastic itself, but we pay very close attention to the crossing of the LEVELS in the indicator window. I have chosen the 23.6 and 76.4 levels, as they are reportedly Fibonacci levels. In any case, they are a little more confirmatory than the standard 20-80 settings most traders use. I make quite a lot of use of this oscillator in the setup. The other point worth mentioning here, is the setting I use. The stochastic is set at 14.3.3 which might seem a bit slow to some traders. Remember we are trading 4H, and when the market is serious about its move, we want to know it can be trusted. The shorter settings (5.3.3 and 8.3.3) are more volatile, and likely to five false signals - we don't need that. More info: Stochastic Oscillator - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com Continued next post ...

Welcome to the thread, OptionTimer - I am honored that you have stopped by. There are similarities here between what I am doing, and the strategy you have proposed in your great thread: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project-14.html#post175004 I use an Australian broker - AxiTrader (demo for 2 years) because I believe while Australian regulators and regulations are amongst the best in the world, our regulators are powerless to assist if there is a dispute with an off-shore broker. If you don't deal at home ... you're alone. I occasionally use IG Australia (subsidiary of IG UK). Because of some serious issues with IG which I have not been able to resolve through cordial dialogue, I have decided to withdraw my patronage of 8 years duration. This is not the place to air those issues. The prices sourced by most MT4 brokers, come from a smorgasbord of major banks and the Interbank constituents generally. Today, most brokers have their own favorite mix, designed to give them competitive spread offering. One MT4 broker I am aware of, uses all of these Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Westpac, Sucden, BNP Paribas & RBS, to offer spreads as low as the ones I have just screen-grabbed in the pic below. I also have demo accounts with FXCM, IBFX and Oanda, but after having issues with requotes, platform freezing at the instant of placing orders, wide slippage and so on, I have opted for a small account with AxiTrader as my first MT4 live broker. I looked hard at GlobalPrime - another Australian broker. There is no FIFO with Aussie brokers, and you can be long and short (hedged) at the same time. Global Prime Forex - Metatrader 4 FX Trading & Managed Investments Retail Forex is quite different from the commercial brokerage houses, where a commission as well as spread is charged, and a ridiculous leverage is allowed! Insane to be using 400:1, and I have seen 800:1! (Google "800:1 leverage" and you will be gobsmacked!) That sums it up - happy to elaborate further ... but you will never get the short answer while the long one is available!

Thanks Mystic and welcome to the thread. I appreciate your presence, and look forward to some dialogue where I hope we can uncover ways to improve this strategy.