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Everything posted by Ingot54
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Hi Tim - I love your Blog - I have bookmarked it for a quick daily trip - good things there, and thank you for providing quality. I also enjoy your posts on TL - very informative to me, with an uplifting, up-beat tone. I found the Blog of Timothy Ferriss (thanks to your mentioning him) and also bookmarked it - it is a 'must-read' for everyone wanting to get out of the rat-race FAST! In fact I hope many more TL members check it out. Please keep up the good stuff - already I am feeling much more positive and excited about the future - thanks to the great folks who I am meeting on TL, and the quality information they are sharing. Ingot54
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Rande - This is probably the best response I have seen from you - at least your words are beginning to be meaningful to my understanding. We are still coming at the problems of finding success in trading from different directions, but from your response, I can accept that there are more than one solution to solving a problem. And I also readily accept your compassion, and determination to apply your years of study and understanding of academic concepts, towards solving the complex issues some traders have, in overcoming seemingly insurmountable trading negatives. For myself - because I solved my own problems from an entirely practical (as opposed to theoretical) base, I find it very easy to be adamant that what I did should be able to be applied to most, if not all traders with problems. I needn't repeat ad nauseum what that was - I am sure readers are becoming heartily sick of my rants. However, I think we shall agree to disagree on the value of a Therapeutic approach based on psychology, versus an approach based on preparing one's self correctly for a lifetime of trading - eg learning the TA, developing an edge, executing a plan, focusing on a strategy, and committing to a consistent cycle of reviewing-planning-implementing-evaluating-reviewing-planning-implementing evaluating. It works - and it doesn't take long, and it doesn't cost anything. Thank you for your response, Rande - it has been most meaningful. Maybe some traders need your kind of intervention - I do not know - all I do know is what has worked for me, and I am excited by the breakthrough.
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I encourage you to do some trades, Rande. Even on a free demo account. Get into it - experience first hand the issues faced by traders. Feel the pain of a loss that can not be overcome by 'thinking like a winner.' Watch your account burn as you struggle to come to terms with the technical issues. Deal with the pressures that real traders deal with - that would be REALITY. Listen to the "dialogue of your mind" and see if what you are telling others works for you. See if you are trading your beliefs, or as you put it, a fabrication. See if you can grow your account, which, as you said, is a measure of your competency. Tell us if the "organisation of the self" is truly the key to successful trading. Find out if you too, "self-sabotage" and see then if "reorganising the self" is truly the answer. Maybe then some lights will come on ... you will reassess your arrogant remark "I am not wrong" - a ludicrous statement from someone who admits: " I do not trade and don't care to trade." It is possible you will begin to think like a real trader, and be able to work much better with real traders. You will begin to understand why so many traders "out here" in the real world, living the reality of dealing with real money, are seeing the Psychological support industry as so much BS. Then come back with your theories about 50 million year old limbic systems getting in the way. Only then will you truly have an insiders perception of the trading pathology you purport to have the answers to. You will also discover that trading is NOT the same as tennis or golf at all. You will discover that the issues that confront traders are unique to trading. You know, many Hollywood actors/actresses have actually gone out and lived in the role they were assigned to play, for periods of 3 to 6 months - some even longer. They were then able to bring living pathos to the role (Tom Hanks, Nicole Kidman, Russell Crowe, Dustin Hoffman and many others). You mention a perceptual map. I believe in the concept of perceptual mapping, but I want the cartographer to understand in his deepest gut, exactly what it is he is attempting to string together in that map. I liken it to a sewing teacher trying to help a vascular surgeon who is having difficulties with cardiac bypass surgery. It doesn't work. But once the sewing teacher gets trained as a surgeon, only then can it be seen where the surgeon's problem is, and a remedy found efficiently. Maybe instead of expecting the trader to come to you, you should meet the trader on his own terms - at the coalface, where the shovel hits the dirt. Rande - I believe you are genuinely trying to do something for traders, and I think you have a lot to offer. You are committed to your vocation and have a depth of compassion which I regard as one of the top qualities required by caring human beings. When I suggest that you roll up your sleeves and experience some demo or better still, live trading, it is in the interests of you, truth, and the support industry itself. Can you imagine the impact you would have on this industry if you were able to say that you have gone out and put into practice the things you currently know only in theory? How quickly would the BS be sorted out from the precious gems of your material? And how quickly would you drop your academic language, and speak the common language of the trader. Your next book would be a #1 best Seller, because you would be writing from the heart and the gut, not the ethereal world of academia. In my profession I did years of training before I became an independent practitioner. I am still training/learning even in the twilight years of it, after two similar careers spanning 44 years. I have been a lecturer/teacher in my profession. It is only because I have been able to walk the walk that I was then able to talk the talk. My words are of instant practical use, because they are not theory - they are BASED on theory, but steeped in 4+ decades of practice and experience. What you ultimately do is up to you, of course. It is not for an unknown like myself to be suggesting how you should run your business. I find that the longer I am engaged in my profession, the more quickly I eat humble pie, and I realise my knowledge is piddling when I think of those who went before me. There is no room for my ego, or indeed, professional arrogance. That's why I become so irritated when I see it in others - those on the periphery who really have no idea what they are talking about, because they have never gotten into the workings of the subject. In my estimation (which counts little) you would go from zero to hero in one leap. "I encourage you to check things out. Decide from there."
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No - I have never seen DOM on the broker's platform I use. The broker is a CFD Market Maker' date=' but prices are accurately reflected, and consistent with MT4 quotes at all times. Unfortunately I don't have much data - I have not traded regularly for a quite a while, until recently (3 weeks). But you would have been correct previously - I did tend to take early exits. Now I do set my TP according to support or the DPP in a short (opposite in a long trade). at the time I set the trade, I set both SL and TP. To be candid, I would be better served turning off the computer and coming back later. It is the screen watching that creates the desire to lock in early profits. But I am doing fine this past week in resisting that, and I can relax a bit more. I firmly believe that as I begin to trust what I am doing a bit more that I will eventually harden right up to this issue. The other thing I am doing is cherry picking my trades and reducing risk. I simply prefer to miss an opportunity to take a trade if all the parameters are not in line. My record over the past few weeks is good, but the losers were due to incorrect placement of SL - the TP was eventually hit as planned, though of course I had been stopped out an hour earlier! I have stopped allowing such things to rattle my confidence - it was a technical error - not a fundamental strategy error. Carelessness had more to do with it, because I had constructed the trade on the 15M TF and didn't take into account the R1 level that was lurking! Had I looked at the 1H it would have been clear, but I had been stalking the trade in the 15M for about an hour, and simply "thought" I had the bases all covered! But exits is definitely an area in which I would easily improve profitability.
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The 11 Most Common Mistakes of a Trader Are...
Ingot54 replied to Ericthetrader's topic in Beginners Forum
Thank you Bob for the download link. The actual name of the Book is: The Ultimate Trading Guide ... not "system." I did a google search for it and was able to correct the error and get the right book. There is another .pdf file called The Ultimate Trading System, though it is a dangerous document for newbies, so please don't bother with that one. Cheers -
My problem is that I am in the very early stages of profitable trading now, after having lost a large account, and two smaller ones over the past 7 years. For the past 18 months I have made a few live trades, but have concentrated on technical stuff more than actual trading. My confidence is fragile, though inwardly I "know" I have passed the profitability barrier in the right direction. I prefer to trade the 4H charts as my guiding TF, but I enter down around the 15M or even 1H at times. I am using Daily Pivot Points and a couple of other things as S&R levels on which to base my TP. Problem is that the more you watch a chart during a trade, the easier it is to talk yourself out of the trade and close it prematurely. Now I have learned that most of the time my TA is ok, and my trades, if left alone, do go on to reach their target. So because of old habits, I have a tendency to want to close them earlier than I should. I set the trades up on MT4 and trade them live on another broker's platform, where I have more control over limit orders and slippage. You may or may not be aware, but since the "cash back" revolution started, brokers have been refunding traders $1 per trade, or some ridiculous thing, based on the size of the position. What these traders may not realise, is that SOMEONE has to pay for this, and it is THEM via slippage, requotes or widened spread. Suckers! I won't trade using the MT4 platform for this reason. And as it is I have to set contingent orders with my live broker to avoid slippage - straight-through orders always suffer a degree of slippage, which is blamed (by them) on the "latency of your computer - there is a delay and price moves on." Yeah right - 100% of the time against me!" Anyway - back to the trading situation. What I usually do is not look at the price too frequently. I usually scan around for what is happening in other currencies. The mental effort is actually much less than it was a few weeks back, but I am usually happy to have made the positive trade. I know that if I persist with my strategy, I will become more relaxed and just allow it to do its work. And this week I am going back to trading directly from the 4H charts. I am usually aware of the weekly trend and Daily trend, as well as all TF (including 8H) right down to 15M. It is a requirement of my strategy that I observe my indicators, as well as candle colour in the higher TF to check for agreement or lack of it. I used to have a 4H and Daily system of my own devising, that would easily nail 200+ pips over a couple of days. I don't know why I left it to play with the lower TF - I would have been better served honing that strategy until I had the skills to trade it in my sleep. I believe I am at the point where I am able to revisit that system and incorporate the strengths of it into what I do now. Such TF (4H and Daily) would probably lend themselves to the use of Heiken Ashi candles ... yes ... but I am happy enough with the Japanese candlesticks. The HA systems have a lot going for them too - once you learn to read them clearly - eg when the wicks are shortening there is a likelihood of reversal, and such things. Just involves learning a bit more and practice using them I guess. Renko I have seen, but don't know anything about them, or even if they are available for the MT4 platforms. Same with P&F charts. Regarding the trashing of my plans towards the end of my trades - not really - it is just that I don't wish to put my profits at any more risk than they have just been through to arrive in my a/c. I can see things through now, without taking early profits, but mentally I see this as the end of the trade - and I think I would find it hard to continue to see opportunity. Having said that, I have sometimes moved my TP levels further away - particularly when the EURJPY is on the move, and running hard in my favour - I love it! btw - what is a "DOM" - is it a demo a/c? I am not familiar with that term, though I have seen it occasionally.
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There definitely is merit in using a runner in volatile markets, as you described, TN. particularly when there may not come another opportunity for a technical entry until another pull-back presents itself. And particularly when, in the case of oil the price has not seen these levels for 18 months to 2 years. The technical S&R levels *should* still hold as per the last time price got this high, but not necessarily, as we know. The metals (Copper and Silver ... +/- Gold) are experiencing more volatile daily ATR's these days too, and would also be classed as volatile enough to consider letting a runner go. The FA supports rising prices for oil, and technically we are taking advantage of it. If I was in a trade I would consider holding all of my original position until I was certain the trend had exhausted, or was in danger of pulling back. Sometimes it is good to plan for the likelihood of a runner situation - but because I don't think that way, any off-the-cuff decision to let one go would likely end badly for me, because I would not have a station in mind to jump off the train. It is a good strategy - I have been in a trading room where I saw the trader use it to perfection - he was able to select the point ahead (DPP or S&R) where price was likely to stall, and he was usually correct. He was a good trader, and I wanted to emulate that. However, I was not ready for it, and the platform was a bit complicated for me at the time (Fibonacci Trader). You make a good case for the use of a runner though - if only it were that easy all the time In my case I am usually happy enough to hit my target, and cast around for the next trade! This is because I am usually a bit exhausted by the time my trade hits TP, and am happy to wash my hands of it! That is a bit illogical, considering the spread is already paid, and the runner is in the trader for free.
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What I am picking up is as follows: 1) The system has to "suit the personality of the trader" and you mentioned you are not keen on scalping. You prefer the higher TF because of their being "more reliable" - something I heartily agree with, and because this is a system for a beginner, it is also something I recommend too. Most systems can be applied across the board, but I believe they probably should not be - some are constructed specifically for scalping, and others for the higher TF. We can get into that later if you wish ... when discussing indicators. 2) You are comfortable to trade $1 per pip per $1000 in account. That will give you at 2% a/c risk, only a 20-pip SL margin. That might be a bit too tight for trading the higher TF, where stops can be set around 60 to 100 pips at times, but not necessarily, if we get this system "right." The last thing we want to be doing is risking money right up to our limit, when we begin to trade. The reason for that is that "scared money never wins" we are told, and sometimes when the margin is at risk, we can talk ourselves out of the trade. That too is another item that we can discuss a bit further along. It will come up when assessing the reward:risk ratio no doubt, so no need to stress about it here. 3) Your choices of currency are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY. As mentioned I would like to review the inclusion of "Beast" in the list. It doesn't get its name for nothing. GBPJPY is a widow-maker when in the mood. It is a specialty pair, imv, and is best left to the experienced traders. having said that, I have looked at the ATR (Average True Range) for Beast, and in fact it does behave in a more docile manner in the higher TF. ATR is currently 137 pips, which compares to the GBPUSD with 119 pips, AUDUSD at 87 pips, EURJPY 121 pips and the EURUSD at 128 pips. So the tamest of them all in this group is the AUDUSD. 4) You are open to use any indicators, and prefer candlesticks - good - we are on common ground. I like to incorporate both Price Action and Indicators in my own trading, though there is nothing magical in either - just a preference. And the thing is not what you use, but how well you use it. You mentioned that you have your own website on TA. You may already have chosen some favourite indicators based on your studies of TA. Again - it's not which ones, but how they are utilised. I use a couple of MA's, Stochastic, RSI and MACD, and sometimes CCI, but sometimes I will stick to MACD and the MA's alone. That will depend on whether the market has been consolidating, or trending. Now this is the point where I am hoping others will chime in with a few indicators of their own. We need to be suggesting a few to look at, and to be saying why we want them in the system. If there is just me and you and Arthur, then the system will be a representation of a narrow range of input. Hopefully a few other traders will kick in here and make suggestions - this is not a one-man-band. A recent poll showed that 70% of TL members who responded were FX traders, so there should be a few available with ideas. Renner - your answers show that you have worked hard in your 18 months and are under no illusions. let's hope we can pull up something that will work for you. Believe me, it need not be complicated, and it won't be. We don't want something looking like this "Pizza Chart":
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Tim -you are amazing, mate - I read your post a few days ago, then took 2 more days to find it again! Your mention of The 4-hr Work Week by Timothy Ferriss [\B] has been a subtle discovery that will change my life - turn it on its head actually. It is off-topic in this thread, but I am going to start a thread on the work of Timothy Ferriss here: http://traderslaboratory.com/forums/showthread.php?p=113940#post113940 Thank you for the idea - forever grateful.
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Do you believe in serendipity - the fortuitous windfall or good luck that came to you unexpectedly, while you were busy searching for something else? I do, because it has happened to me. It happened again this week, as I was reading one of Tim Racette's responses to a newbie trader looking for help with the eMini's. Tim casually mentioned Timothy Ferriss like this:
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Your response puzzles me: "We disagree. But I am not wrong." Such a response tends to close off dialogue, and alienates those who might perceive it as a touch of arrogance. There are areas in life that are NOT black and white - and belief systems is one such area. People can acknowledge the reality of their situation, or they can behave like Pollyanna. But there is no escaping reality. The "evidence of competency" to you, is ascribed as a growing account. The converse is not necessarily true - it is quite likely that the failure of an account to grow could also be evidence of inexperience. I do not see it as somehow being a bizarre derangement of a "self" that I am living out, and which manifests as a failure to grow my account. Frankly I find the concept completely academic, of dubious usefulness and little practical application in healing the ailments of struggling traders. It might fluff out the contents of a speech, a course, a conversation, but where the rubber of the mind truly makes contact with the bitumen of the trading world, is in the determination of the trader (the "self") to apply the lessons learned. I am NOT creating the conditions of my failure, but I am certainly creating the conditions (knowledge, commitment, discipline, strategy) that ensures my success. There is nothing pathological ... nothing healed ... just common-garden hard work and application of my ability to the problem. I can tell you that if you think that your success came simply from switching from thinking like a loser to thinking like a winner (mindset) then you have a very short memory. I would class my current success rate as transitional, with a bias towards more profit than loss. I can stand in these halls and categorically state that my thoughts of being a winner or a loser do not enter into the equation ... even remotely. My personal thoughts are those of a person filled with gratitude that I have made a great discovery - that of getting real with my trades - nothing more or less. I faithfully apply my strategy, and I reap the rewards. Other things are disciplinary issues, of which I have spoken at length on other threads. You tend to complicate the simple, and pigeon-hole things that should not be confined. It is not a matter of slotting traders into two camps ... "profitable or seeking". In fact, all traders are continually seeking - it is the point of Maslow's hypothesis, that humans will continue to strive for higher actualisation - self-actualisation first, then the actualisation of others reached through transcendency. How is it shown that "Your beliefs trade"? In my experience, if "my beliefs trade" I would have been profitable much earlier. Now that I have been enlightened to what my true barriers were, I see that I was simply ignorant of being adequately organised in my approach to trading, and I lacked an edge. Nothing more than that. These problems I solved all by myself, without the "fabrication of my beliefs creating dialog in my mind that do the trading". Can't you see how utterly ridiculous such a concept is? It seems you are very far removed from my reality in your own world. I would say to you to please reexamine your approach. If it can be shown that an "un-psyched" trader like myself can solve my own problems without examining whether my mental dialogue is fabricating a negative trade, then I suggest your approach is not as black-and-white as you suggest. Might it not be possible that you are introducing complications to the procedure that are not only unnecessary, but fabricated themselves? I suggested you are complicating something quite simple, unnecessarily. Like Homer Simpson, who suggested "Alcohol is the cause of, and the solution to, life's problems" you are complicating trading so that any trading problems become psychological ones, and then, along came James ... with ... lo! and behold! ... the solution! Rande - you would do quite a lot towards decathexis of this situation if you were to give some anecdotal evidence of your own trading experiences. Are you profitable? Are you self-sabotaging? Is your mind constantly creating the conditions of your experience in trading? Is YOUR trading account growing? Is the current organisation of your "self" competent? Are you profitable, or are you seeking? Are you trading a reality - a mind dialogue - or a fabrication? Few people ARE indeed organised to 'trade well" ... are you? I am genuinely interested in how your own trading is going. If you are "not wrong" then I expect your trading account will be immense, and your success rate much nearer to 100% than 50%. Those that can trade ... trade. Those that can't trade ... teach ... psychoanalyse ... sell support services. Of course - if you are not a trader, then your credibility is nearer zero than hero, unfortunately - only a successful trader should be attempting to "heal" the unsuccessful. Of course, if you are like the rest of us - still learning, then that piece of humble pie is already cooked and sliced for you. You too can be wrong. Rande I will desist from attempting to hold you to account because frankly it is beginning to look like I am trolling, when in fact I am interested in only the truth. I hope others continue to make you accountable for your high-brow statements and look for the evidence that should also be accompanying the theory. If you want to reach people with your 'therapy" you will need to begin to provide tangible evidence of the truth of your theories.
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Try substituting the word "committed" for the word "stubborn" Tradewinds, and I think you begin to see the positive side of your approach. The word "passion" does not need to mean "obsession" either. I thought I would throw that one in there, because you need both a passion and a commitment in order to have the motivation that the outside world perceives as persistence. In my view you have those qualities, as does Davidjohnhall. David's story is actually very encouraging, because it shows that personal honesty pays huge dividends, and truly it is the best way forwards. David also shows that by revealing the 800lb Gorilla in the room and dealing with it, you can then move on to dealing with the 600lb Gorilla, and then the 200lb one ... and so on. Eventually all the monkeys are caged, and you get on peacefully with it. Tradewinds, are you doing ANY live trading yet? I ask that because I too went through a stage of not trading because I didn't want to blow up again. But I set myself a small goal. I wanted to find a trade that actually embodied to the letter everything in my system. And all I wanted to do was take that trade and make a few pips to encourage myself that I was on the right track. The trade WAS successful, and so I decided to continue to look for JUST ONE TRADE that met all my conditions. I had to remain transparently open with myself at all times, to refrain from drifting back into the impulsive kinds of trades that had dogged my trading earlier. It worked so well, that now I have no fear of trading as such. Over the past three weeks I have traded 5 times each week. The first week I made 50 pips nett but the second week was a loss of 80 pips. This week I made 50 pips (round figures all of these). I have no fear or uncertainty left in me regarding my setup and execution. I do have uncertainty about the outcome, but I do not let it bother me. What I do is look over my trade while in progress and if it retains the qualities that convinced me to take it, I persist. My loss week came about as a result of trading in a lower TF than normal, using a SL that was unsuitable. So it is that a little insight overcomes fear. I didn't need to brainwash myself in any way - just recognise what the true reason for the loss was, and get on with the next trade. Truth (light) will always defeat fear (darkness) and if you search for the truth in any failure, the result will be the dispelling of fear. Enlightenment leads to insight. Insight leads to confidence. Confidence leads to taking the trades that your strategy gives you, unconditionally, knowing the outcome will provide either a) profits or b) opportunity for enlightenment Suddenly you will find yourself on a positive journey, as both wins and losses point the way to further wins. Failure to be open and honest with losses, as David so graciously shared, can only lead to more secrecy and fear, instead of insight and profit. Maybe you should try some live trading again?
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Observations of a Noobie Trader for Other Noobie Traders
Ingot54 replied to Dcash's topic in Beginners Forum
Ah yes - I do agree with you on that MM - if there is ONE secret to trading, it is that the plan must have an edge ... in other words, it must be flawless. "Flawless" does not mean it must be the best. It just has to have a winning edge. It can be simple or complicated - doesn't matter - it just has to have a positive expectation, and then be executed well. Which brings us around full circle - it does not matter if trading IS about making money - without a flawless plan, you won't make money. So the ogical step is to remove the idea of making money, and focus on what MAKES money ... and that is excellence in trading. Trade well and the money will follow. The chicken obviously comes first in this story (the chicken or the egg) - the plan has to be right and the money will follow. Money will not follow a flawed method. Regarding those who want to take your money - I do not think it is fellow traders as much as it is the market maker who is the adversary ... if indeed there is one. The markets we trade are very liquid - and that is one of the factors traders have going for them. It would take very deep pockets indeed to toss the Forex markets around ... or a very big mouth, in the case of the central bankers at news time! In my battle against the pseudo-psychology that pretends to have the solution to trading woes, this would be an excellent point - the problem lies in a flawed plan, and in flawed trading methodology and strategy. -
I have never heard such pathetic explanation of the human condition in all my decades of walking this planet! I am sorry for your approach and for the beliefs you espouse, Rande. I am not sorry for my indignation, or for confronting on this. You want to reduce everything to the level of the animal - you state as facts that we have animal over-riders governing our every activity, and this is typical of the unwashed academic of today - instead of recognising man as a distinct and unique creation amongst other creatures, you drag him down to the animal. I totally reject this thinking. Yes - you will have friends who nod in agreement, or nod ignorantly - but if this is what your years of study/learning has made of you, I don't think you will ever have anything to offer me. Your caveman theories actually do explain quite well some of the fright/fight or flight theories, but conveniently ignore the unique qualities of man - that of spiritual (note that this is NOT a religious situation, but a spiritual one - there is a huge difference) depth in the human being. I speak of the kind of depth that allows a man to be an over-comer of adversity, through resourcefulness and inner strength. Spirituality is what gives man the transcendent ability to rise above circumstance - to be afraid but act correctly regardless, because he has a certainty within. It is my interaction with higher values that give me a reason to trade, to work, to live my life unselfishly and to contribute and to attempt to bring others up with me. What animal ever does this? The fact that I have been able to basically work out my own trading and my own trading success, without reverting back to my "baboon ancestry" immediately provides me with evidence that your words are simply academic crap. This is nothing to do with evolution, or religion, so before people go rushing in to take this off topic, I want to state that. What it is about is that we have a situation where a human being will be confronted by fear of loss. There are tools available to assuage those kinds of losses, but human beings are basically too lazy and too spoiled by affluence to get out of their own way and learn to master those tools. Instead we are happy to sit here behind behind computer screens and read without question or comment, some academics sprouting theories that are baseless nonsense. I have had my share of study and learning, and I am in my 7th decade of life - all of my life has been spent in the scientific field of chemistry, physiology, biology and medicine. I have a lot more to learn yet. But I am not going to sit here and be told by some other academic that it is because of the animal in me that I am having trouble trading because it is not my fault - it is the 50 million yr old gorilla brain in me! Look - if you want to be unafraid - calm, detached, confident in trading - then you will NEVER achieve that without having an edge, and understanding that edge. Do you think that some trader sitting in the middle of Bombay or Delhi is worried about his "reptilian brain" or what his "limbic system" is preparing for him, or how his "Amydala is interpreting" the move against him of 3 ticks? No - he probably is more concerned about learning to master his trading - he knows that a move of three ticks is not a threat to his financial life, or indeed a physical threat. His "fight or flight" response is to get his head deeper into his technical learning, and his understanding of his trading principles. If people want to listen to this academic nonsense to explain why they are unable to overcome a lack of knowledge, or a lack of mastery in a very difficult vocation, then please be my guest. The cross-infection between Zoology, Anthropology and Psychology is unwarranted and unscientific But I implore all of you - to use the head that you have, that is far above the chimpanzee, to understand that there IS another explanation and approach to overcoming ignorance in how to trade. We do not need comparisons with animals or evolution to explain the laziness of an entitled group who expect to participate in financial markets long before they are technically prepared or trained. Instead we get this pseudo-science fed to us - totally unprovable stuff by the way - that somehow it is not our fault - the problem is in our heads. You have a brain - use it. Get over your laziness and failure to take action. Educate yourself about the markets you are trading. Stop making excuses for your own failure to move your butt. Many come into trading thinking that the disclaimers don't apply to them - but that's what they are there for - the markets are going to educate you, unless you educate yourself. And many come into the markets thinking that in a few short weeks they will be able to buy-low-sell-high just like th glossy web-site said. So it doesn't work out quite like that. The "few short weeks" get extended to "a few months" but the reality is that the process may take Y-E-A-R-S to understand all that has to be taken into account. The markets thrive on new participants. And obviously there is quite another parasitic market thriving on holding the hands of those who have not done their homework. If people think that the pseudo-science of the animal kingdom is going to make one scrap of difference to the required knowledge of what to do when the market turns against you, then please - continue. I belong to a group of traders who KNOW I am much better than that - I know how to use my brain to find my own solutions, and I am succeeding at that. And guess what - not a psychological idea in sight! Psychology as applied to trading, glosses over what is actually a very corrupt and dangerous financial pursuit. Those who think they can get their heads straightened out so that the fear of loss they are feeling becomes a bit numb, are deluded. What they really need is a sense of appreciation - to get rid of the "easy-come-easy-go" mentality, and to begin to truly value their money; to get seriously hungry for the knowledge and ability to engage the markets on the correct (technical and strategic) terms; to stop playing in the muddy waters of psychology, which is a cop-out ... a crutch ... an excuse for failure to apply the principles of learning and engagement in difficult financial markets. I get quite angry and feel like abusing those who are lying to traders about what is really necessary to move them from their folly. I find it quite extraordinary that a "professional" person can come onto a forum and peddle such nonsense. It doesn't matter if 100,000 people all believe something that is wrong - it is S-T-I-L-L wrong ... the number who believe it does not make it right. Guess what - the problems will not go away until YOU decide you have had enough. The markets do not exist to give YOU money. What is true in trading is not going to be found in dealing with your so-called limbic system. It sounds nice. It sounds plausible. It creates an artificial void begging to be filled, and lo! here is someone who can fill it for you. In fact there is an ENTIRE industry feeding off such theories today - creating-then-solving mythical problems. The industry has reached critical mass - it is even respectable now, and has its guru's and shining lights. Sorry - I think I am a little above this approach. EDIT: I do have to agree with your opening statement, Rande - "Trading does not come natural to the human brain. For the vast majority of traders, it has to be learned." From there you had a golden opportunity to truly get traders onto the correct path of education. Why didn't you? What is your motivation for persisting with this red-herring of evolution and the Baboon mentality supposedly inherent in traders?
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Thanks for those definitive replies Renner - in my view you have been quite diligent during your 18 months, and if you keep working at that rate you will not fail to achieve your goal. I am going to retire for the night (getting past 2.15am now) but I like your idea of aiming for the higher TF - 4H is about as low as a beginner trader should go, in my view - but 1H should be ok for someone who has been slugging it out over 18 months. Some people are joining the price Action bandwagon, and throwing their indicators out the window. I am not one of them, though I am a member of Nial Fuller's Price Action group, and I strongly believe in PA signals on the higher TF - I have 8H candles on my MT4 charts - let me know if you want the Period Converter .mq4 file and I'll put it in the Indicators section.for you and anyone else to use. I might put this on the table as food for thought before I go: Consider trading NON-Correlated pairs, and no more than 4 pairs - preferably TWO. The reason is that you can easily MASTER two pairs, and once you do, you will never need to trade any more than two .... ever. The EURUSD is positively correlated to the GBPUSD. You didn't mention the USDCHF - but it would have been off the list anyway because it is more than 90% NEGATIVELY correlated to the EURUSD ... counter productive to be trading both. The AUDUSD is a Commodity currency, and a good one to include - usually trending and fairly steady. AUDJPY gets us away from the Euro and the USD, so we will be looking at a pair that is less under the influence of those two. The JPY is known as the "twin" to the USD - ie the GBPUSD will be in positive correlation with the GBPJPY. It will remain fairly true for other pairs you substitute for the GBP in those pairs. To simplify the list - I would probably cut out the "Beast" (GBPJPY) unless you are comfortable with its volatility, and I would add the AUDJPY in it's place. It's really academic at this point, as we will probably be wanting to trade only one ... max 2 pairs at a time. And the further we get away from the Majors, the wider the spread is going to be. I forgot to ask which platform you are using, Renner. If you are already familiar with the MT4 platforms, then this could be an excellent one for the purposes of this exercise. I suggest before we go adding specific indicators, we discuss our requirements - ie what we want to see price do and confirm, before we commit our money to a trade? Time to snooze - but please continue in my absence - I am certain there are better traders amply able to contribute further from this point.
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Observations of a Noobie Trader for Other Noobie Traders
Ingot54 replied to Dcash's topic in Beginners Forum
I think you are making two erroneous assumptions MM: 1) That the trader opposite has deeper pockets than you, and can run a position to bluff you out of yours. 2) That "the guy who wants the money the most will win." You are assuming (point 1) that my plan is easily defeated by someone who doesn't care about my plan. The point of my plan is that is has a positive expectation, and it does NOT always win. At SOME point the opposite number WILL get my money - but not ALWAYS. Don't assume that some hungry peasant is going to beat a good strategy EVERY time - they simply don't, and they won't. There would be no market if all the hungry-Jacks simply won every trade - they don't. If there is such a player with deep enough pockets to run a position, then a trader who is trading "well" will protect a position by closing it at their predetermined stops, and reenter when the trigger signal is given. That is what I would call 'trading well' - and I can not see how that could be construed as "not wanting the money more than the opposite number" The opposite number will only get your money if you fail to trade your plan - ie if you failed to stop when your rules say "3 ticks and get out". It then doesn't matter if he runs the trade 30 ticks - if you are not in the trade at that time, because of your skillful trading, he can be as hungry as billy-o and it won't allow him to touch one cent of your money. My brain tells me that a trader who has a WINNING strategy will overcome a trader who just wants your money, regardless of how 'hungry' (read: greedy) he is. He might win the a battle or two, but he can NOT win the war. Strategy will overcome brute force. I expect you will hold your line on this ... but so will I. What is the point of developing a winning strategy, if all you need is the Bank of England behind you, and greed? -
I have a mate who likes to take profit on half, and let a runner go. But personally I feel uncomfortable with it. My belief system is that my preparation was for the 'most' I thought was available, and I am very pleased if I get it. Closing out say 2 out of a 3-contract position, means you are risking a dip/pullback on your remaining 1/3 of your initial profits too, or running 1/3 higher. The Damocles sword. I prefer to be "clean-and-away" with my capital safely in the bank, and the next trade coming into my sights. While I am running a position on a trade that I initially planned to be already completed, I have an opportunity cost in the trades I *should* be in, but aren't because I am preoccupied by a lesser trade. Those additional pips available via a runner can turn out to be expensive. In other words, my thoughts are that if letting a runner go is a part of the plan, then by all means operate the plan like that. But (and you didn't suggest this) if a decision is made ad hoc to let a small position run after the TP was hit, then the plan has been violated. If running a small position is part of the strategy, then the conditions under which to do so should be written into the plan. I'm all for flexibility, but even then the strategy should be: If-this-then that If-not-then-continue The consistency to execute the plan, as well as the commitment to continue operating it after a couple of losses, is the best form of discipline I know.
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So sad, The Negotiator. I would not want to even consider that this is the across-the-board attitude of these folks. But it does confirm what I mentioned on the other thread, that components of the Psyche sessions do include sound trading principles too, and it is more likely THOSE principles that are making the difference, than the therapy/counseling sessions. But whether the procedure of sound preparation is taught by a Psychologist or whether by a house-hold name trusted trader, as long as the principles remain intact, then the student trader should advance. Like you, I have always done as full an analysis as I could before hitting the buy/sell button. Most of my past failures have NOT been that I didn't make profits - it was that I didn't take the profits when they were available. My preparation these days includes target levels, and I set them faithfully. This means leaving pips on the table sometimes, but I read in one of Rob Booker's short eBooks once, that we should always leave something on the table for the next guy. That is a generous principle too, and one that ensures we always get out of the trade in good time, with at least some profits intact. Most traders who pay for services are likely to conform to the directions of their tutor. As long as they are led to apply sound basic trading principles, it does not matter too much what other "filling and fluff" the courses are padded out with. They will still receive the help they seek, and the Psychologist will get another testimonial from a satisfied, and "rewired" client. I know there are areas of overlap, and that there are ethical operators, but the trading industry success figures are fairly static. Someone is making a motza (a killing) out of the sheer ignorance of eager traders - about 90% of traders it seems. Lambs!
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Hi Renner Yours is a different form of an extremely common question, repeated all over the world in hundreds of Financial Markets forums. Mostly the responses are callous, sarcastic, dissing and rude. Often the person asking for help is never seen on that forum again. But Traders Laboratory is different ... in a way. You will get your help ... but you will need to roll up YOUR sleeves! I am expecting you to provide as good as you get - ie you need to define some guidelines such as: What time frame are you expecting to trade? Are you wanting to scalp, swing trade or position trade? How much capital are you expecting to use to get a return of 10% per week ... that is 46.4% compounded per month - extraordinary figures for someone who has been trading for 18 months. Will that 10% return be enough to cover your family's living expenses? What do you consider a "good risk:reward ratio"? What have you been trading up to this point? (Pairs, position size, risk:reward etc) What systems have you tried? How long did you persevere with them? Did you master any single system, and if so, what was its short-coming, and what do you consider could be done to improve it? Have you been studying Bar Charts,Candlesticks, Moving Averages, specific Indicators, Price Action, Proprietary Systems? Have you tried trading any of the hundreds of systems available on a few of the popular forums? Most of the information is available on the Internet - it is found on forum archives, or through Google "search". You have come to the right place - but I am surprised that you are issuing a challenge, where you seem to be the main beneficiary. It might have been better to ask if someone was interested in working with you to build a mechanical system ... same thing ... better approach. Regardless ... If you wish to engage the people on the forum - and I will happily help where I can - then you need to tell a lot more of a background story. So far ... so good ... and we wait for the next instalment ... and the challenge is back to you now - nothing comes on a golden plate - especially when you have had only 18 months of searching. Most of us have done that in spades - I have had 7 years at this game - and I am not about to hand anyone the keys to the executive washroom, who has done only a fraction of the struggling, and felt little of the pain. I want to see some effort and sweat from you. Answers to all the above would be a great start. And yes, I would love to help.
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Did anyone get some feedback about this, or was it just a fishing trip for some easy email addresses from the gullible? I was wondering how anyone trading in "American time zones" could come under the class of "late night forex traders!!! Now if you were to write "non-American time zones" I would understand the caffeine stunt. Here in Oz, the US markets do not open until around 11.30pm, and the lively activity continues for about 5 hours to 4am or so - a few hours before the Asian markets open! Did I miss something here, or did this guy really think that Americans stay up late swigging coffee and trading the slugging Asian session?
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The idea of having a written trading plan does not come into question - those who say they are trading successfully readily agree that having a written checklist definitely plays a pivotal part in their success. note that I have substituted the word "checklist" now, for the word "plan" because at this stage you have an unwritten plan, and now to crystallise that, you need a written component to check off when establishing your entry. Here is a sample: * Check trend in weekly / Daily / 4H / 1H (substitute your own) time frames and agree that the significant trends support your directional bias [ ] * Is there major news due that will conflict with or compromise this trade [ ] * Check EMA on your entry TF to concur with higher trends [ ] * Check Indicator (1) and (2) ... and so on to confirm trigger and entry [ ] * Establish the point of placement of Stop Loss order - the point that will signal the trade has failed [ ] * Establish Take Profit level in accordance with strategy (pivots; S&R etc) [ ] * Examine Reward-to-Risk-Ratio ... it is within strategy expectations [ ] * Calculate position size. Does it fit the Reward:Risk [ ] * Is this trade in conflict with other positions (positive/negative correlation) [ ] * Are you comfortable with every aspect of this trade [ ] * Is there any reason NOT to take this trade (headache, emotional upset, fatigue, have an important appointment coming up, should be somewhere else, poor Reward:Risk, one of the key parameters of the strategy is NOT quite right etc) [ ] The list is not exhaustive, and I invite critique - add/remove items. The actual checklist will take less than 10 seconds once you are used to it, but it is the FINAL step before entry. The real "work" of establishing the setup also does not take long - flicking through a couple of TF and checking indicators doesn't take long. And calculation of SL and TP levels, and Position Size, and thus Reward: Risk also can be done rapidly, especially if you use software to assist with these calculations. There are heaps of position sizing calculators available on the net - if you want one just ask, and I will attach one for you. Keep in mind your check list will be unique to yourself. And because it is 'yours' you are free to have whatever you want on it. My idea is to add new items to the list to check every time I find something in a failed trade - was there something else I *should* have checked? Then it goes on the check-list. BTW - For a more detailed approach, you might consider Googling "Anna Coulling" and look for links to Trading Plans. She seems to have several sites - all seem ok. Finally I borrow a "Trader's Prayer" from her: May my assessment of today's price action be based upon the facts, all of the facts and nothing but the facts. May I not be influenced by fear, greed or the ill advised comments of others, which may be made in their interests and not in my own. May I take into account the past history laid before me on this chart and make my assessment based on my knowledge and logic, and not on my emotions To which I hope we can all say: Amen!
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Well Steve, you have me intrigued now As a fuzzy retail trader I am curious about how you know "how to play the game" and how that "game" is different from any other "game" that is going on at the same time that I am playing the retail game! I really understand the difference between wholesale and retail, and that "theirs" is bigger than "mine", and that they can pee higher, but you have only half-stated several things, without elaborating. Your post promised ... but didn't deliver. You mentioned that: ... the art of the game is * how to judge where that (support) is based on an arbitrary distribution * it sure as hell isn't at traditional support * where your profit targets are * the impact of news and economic reports on the time horizon * and how to properly bet so that you can exploit a significant move On top of that you stated: "the way to go is to learn how the big players operate and find a niche" and It made me realise I have no clue "how the big players operate" since I have never met any. Those I might have heard about (ie through the writings of Jack Schwager or through those "in the know in forums such as this) don't know I exist. If they did, I presume they wouldn't have the time or the inclination to chat with a puny retail trader, and lead them into the innermost and most hallowed secrets of "wholesale trading". So, getting out of the tongue-in-cheek mode now, and getting serious, how does one, in your view, learn how the big players operate, and "find a niche"? This could be the basis of a good discussion. Victor seems to have gone on to brighter and better things since he dumped the "retail" players who built his business for him, on a "free signal" basis. I dumped his service as quickly as he dumped his original supporters.
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Observations of a Noobie Trader for Other Noobie Traders
Ingot54 replied to Dcash's topic in Beginners Forum
Fully agree - get the method right and the money takes care of itself. Getting the method right initiates the learning curve ... and that is why you can not put a wise trading head on newbie shoulders. Had I understood this principle - and it IS a principle - as I came into the trading world, my learning might have received a magnificent boost. I didn't know that I didn't know the skills to work at. -
Man - what a privilege that would have been - I could write on the edge of a postage stamp the number of 'big name' artists I have seen live. Here in Australia we had a late start on the rest of the world - today we can get the good ones to Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide ... and maybe another capital city or two, but some never make it to 'down under'. This featured artist today toured Oz in 1973 with his 4 brothers - the first Black Group to ever tour here from overseas. Yes, it was The Jackson 5 and although Michael was planning to include Australia in his "This is It" world tour in 2009, he never got to begin the tour. History records he died on 25th June 2009 - three weeks before due to commence his series of 50 concerts, starting from London. The most memorable song for me was this one - and if you are a fan, you will have noticed as he got older, so did the strength of his voice. When choosing the version today, I noted some stronger vocals from him with this song, but the one I think I want to remember him most by, is the youthful version below. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqU1VywcZBM&feature=fvwrel]YouTube - Michael Jackson - Ben - OST - Live Performance - The 45th Annual Academy Awards® (1973) - HQ Sound[/ame]
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Forgot to attach an illustration of the Indicator. Enjoy.