Ingot54

I think we are missing the point here - this thread is meant to be a light-hearted laugh at ourselves and others ... who make statements just before they are wiped out. ... FUN ... I am surprised that people can not understand a light-hearted thread when they see one. The issue has nothing to do with whether TA works or does not work - the majority of people on the forum are committed TA traders. Last words of a trader: "I have a hunch ... "

Yes, Jivanjiao, I will continue for a short time - I keep commitments. But at some point I will fade away. I plan to follow through with another trade, and then to write out the rules in a way that can be followed. Because there is some discretion required, I will be as clear as possible where discretion is needed, and try to point that out when it happens. Thanks for your support and interest, Eralinks. I have a bit more to offer yet, but there will be a limit. Let's hope you can also achieve an objective here. Thank you Kobe756. The problem is not as much the strategy or the markets ... the problem is myself. Markets have always been challenging, and not all traders are cut out to meet the challenge. As I am under-capitalised and running out of time in life to achieve this and other objectives, something has to move in my sphere, and forex 'trading" is the weak link, and will have to move over. This is indeed one of the great methods, and will achieve success for the trader. In my case, I am unable to hang around while an account builds up over time. The small sums I can make with it are precious little compared to what I make in my day job, so for the hours I spend sitting on my bottom in front of a computer keyboard and monitor, I am rewarded little in dollar terms. Henry - we need to get the rules written ... after the next trade is worked through. I am leaving it that late to formulate rules, because I do not particularly want people to be getting confused about which rule applies on which TF and why it conflicts with this and that etc etc. First I want traders to be able to see that we do have something here ... and that will give them the mental commitment to look more seriously. If we give the rules first, then it is too easy to discard the strategy as useless, when in fact it may not have had a decent test. That is why I have jumped straight is to trading examples on a live basis - I want people to see that the approach using a higher TF is much more forgiving of an error, and that aligning the action in several TF is indeed the way to catch a nice wave. This week I am catching up with family in another city, so will have limited opportunity to post. Please bookmark/add to favourites so that you get the updates when we begin the week's trading. Thanks to everyone for continuing support - I hope not to let you down

Don't be upset on my account, ZDO - I stopped listening to you when I realised you are a greater cynic that I. I have been aware of the Illuminati and their antics since 1978 when I read Stan Deyo's "The Cosmic Conspiracy." You can not fight them, so why bang tin cans about it. Instead, you can foil their work. You wouldn't want to use the best tools if I told you what they are for the job, so I have to point to ineffective ways to keep you busy while others use the effective ones. I won't tell you here, because of your cynicism - nothing will do for you - too many opinions ... no solutions. So ... live with your head wobbling at what I do ... and suck it up! Incidentally, the peoples of Egypt and Lebanon are not entirely pawns, of some supposed Arab Spring uprising orchestrated supposedly by the money elite through the supposed intervention by covert forces infiltrating, agitating ... yada yada. I see it as the people rising up because they have to ... had to. Now, in both places, they are rejecting the governments that rushed in to fill the void left by the departures of Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi. Not happy with the manipulation? ... boot the new bunch out too. Now maybe that changes the ball game ... maybe that sends a message to some faceless group ... I do not care. I do not see what you see - thankfully. I see a result of another kind. When I hear you speaking with love, and tapping a small glass, instead of bashing a big, empty drum, then I might bother with your words. Otherwise, all I hear is clashing cymbals ... rings in the ears for awhile, and then fades away as an annoyance. Nothing achieved ... no residual good. My way is softer, enduring and effective. I don't have to prove it to anyone - it just is, was and will be the way. All violence ends with peace eventually, so feel free to advocate anything, except the way that works in the long term. I do not care how your head wobbles - one day you might open your eyes.

A temporary condition only, Bob We are only as good as our next loss! But thanks ...

Thanks Henry for your kindness. I bookmarked the blog, and will have a longer look at it when those cooler autumn nights arrive here All the best with your trading. Ingot

So far we have been through only one setup using this strategy. I am hoping some of you have been able to see the potential in using a strategy such as this to exploit trend in the higher TF. Try setting the template up on your MT4 and apply it to a few of the major currency pairs. It is not as complicated as it may seem from the outset - like anything you quickly get used to it with a little use, and eventually you do not even need to have as many charts to simply understand where trend is. I am happy to continue the thread if anyone takes a serious interest in the strategy, and would like to see another work-through with another pair. Perhaps we could use the EurUsd next time, or one of someone else's choosing. At any rate, I am glad I was out of that pair (GBPJPY) before the rally. The signs were just not clear that the trade was going to be in our favour, and at those times you just have to take the loss, or simply get out. There is always another trade. Personally I am thinking of quitting live trading - there are a couple of reasons for it: 1) I do not have the capital for it 2) I have been working hard to get trading working for me,for 9 years, and still am not doing any better than meeting trading expenses 3) I am not kidding myself that I will ever actually be able to do much better than I am doing right now 4) In order to meet my original objectives of replacing current salary, I expect to be increasing ROI - that is not happening for me 5) Family are more important to me than sitting at the computer bashing my head to improve my trading results 6) Trading takes up a lot of my time and my thinking - there is more to life I will still remain involved for a little while in order to complete what I have started, but I can see that in the future I will probably just fade away and become involved in something more profitable than trading the way I do. Writing poetry could be more profitable than what I have been doing! See my comments in post #12 here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/11833-39-forex-traders-profitable.html#post176048 Anyway - I have started this thread to give some of you some idea of what I found actually works. I remain convinced that if you approach trading from this perspective then you will have a better chance than you might have otherwise. There has been a little interest here - let me know if you'd like to continue. Ingot

We can not just toss the system aside and leave a vacuum. There has to be some sort of coordinated management. I don't think we know how to run a technology-based society yet - we are still discovering the stuff! But we have never before had to manage such a populous society, and to just plaster the governemnt with the blame is a little one-eyed, I know. However, there those in positions of responsibility whose sociopathic views on life are destroying a Utopian opportunity for many. Technology could indeed bring a wonderful lifestyle - and it is. But we are also enslaving ourselves to obtain it. There is a cost, and until we say "no, I am unwilling to pay that cost" it will roll on. I think that's what these splinter groups can see, but do not have any structure yet to be able to do anything tangible about the reckless and wasteful excesses of big government. Maybe the government really does have the solution to everything? What if they do not? I think all we ask of government is to NOT threaten our security ... but they keep coming up with hare-brained schemes that do exactly that.

Not only fledgling traders - about 60% of "traders" should run. I am about to do a runner myself, after 9 full years on 5th March, of doing this. What people may not realise, is that even when you make the move from losing, to profitability, it is still a VERY LONG WAY to self-sufficiency through the art of trading. I began this quest through trading my very first equities trades, on 5th March 2004 ... which just happened to be my birthday gift to myself, with the blessing of Mrs Ingot54. It has turned out to be a curse. 9 years later, after much damage, I have decided it is really never going to replace my income from my day job in the way I had hopes for at the outset. I still have my health ... and my family, but not my friends and not my money. I am giving up on live trading after having crossed the threshhold, because I still have such a long way to go to actually make $80k/yr that I know without a doubt, that that dog ain't gonna hunt. I learned a lot - I learned how to trade. But I didn't learn to "Trade for a Living." I know only enough of the principles to get me over the line, but I have a hobby already - I need an income. So just to be able to say "39% of Traders are profitable" is just so much crap, in my humble opinion. I have paid my dues, but I didn't get membership of that big club. No one sold me the dream - it was a deliberate decision to enable me to move from working in a stressful hospital position, to working in a care-free, work-from-home situation, where with a bit of work every couple of days, my income would be easily replaced. Some did achieve this - congratulations sincerely to them. Remember, you are not a trader until it says so on your IRS or Annual Income Taxation Statement.

On their own ... no. There are many movements starting up spontaneously all over the planet. People wanting to make a difference - anything ... and it is dawning on many people that the government is the problem ... not you, not me, not my multicultural neighbours, not the Mums and Dads in Afghanistan, Palestine, Israel, the USA or new Zealand, Russia, France or Baghdad or Somalia or Syria - no ... none of them The problem is with GOVERNMENT alone But people ARE rising up. People are DOING something, taking ACTION in their own ways, forming groups, attending rallies, writing letters to newspapers ... and becoming involved. These are the people who remember a better life. These are people who want to work, who have worked and who want their children to know the fulfillment of work. The greedy corporations have pushed consumerism like a religion on a population who didn't understand its evil, and who largely still do not. Since the 1950's whenHire Purchase began enslavement-through-consumerism, it was the end of the single income family. Now mum also had to have a job to pay for the consumerables, but she also had to have a car ... to get her to her work. The cycle had begun, and the corporations bosses loved it. Today we call them CEO's euphemistically. I have a name for them epithetically but this is a family show ... Today we have easy credit still in my country - take-it-away with nothing to pay, and no interest for 48 months. Thus they hook you on someone else's credit facility. Young people are in hopeless debt before they are 19 years of age. They are asleep. But some are awake. Some have stopped consuming and are opting for self-sufficiency. On their own, they are fragmented little specific interest groups. But it is beginning to dawn on people who our real enemy is. It is now a race against time to see who wins - will the people get rid of big government before big government asserts irrepressible control over the people, from which they will never recover without the spilling of blood? No mate, taxpayer leagues are just a fragment of a very big snowball that is yet to be built. But ... it will be built. (There is no short answer with me)

Post deleted - double posted!

My takeaway from this article is that the industry is under stress. The dishonest brokers have largely felt the wrath of an industry that was suffering, and demanded the impotent regulators clean it up. It may well be that with the disappearance of dishonest brokers, profitability might be returning to where it should have been for quite some time anyway. And with the improvement in profitability, brokers come under even more stress - at least those that behave like bucket shops. Those that are ECN's and have STP should not be affected - in fact they pray for the longevity of their clients, because of the fees and spreads generated for with each trade. Yep - they did such a good job of fleecing clients, that now almost everyone has been warned away. Only those brokers who did the right thing are now reaping those rewards - the loyalty of their grateful clientele. To be candid, I am still a little wary of articles like this. To say that profitability is now around 40% might breathe fresh life into the struggling industry - if indeed it is struggling at all. If traders think profitability is high these days, they may well be attracted back to take a second shot at it. After all, no one thinks of themselves as being 'below average' do they? Articles like this are the very best kind of advertisement brokers could hope for. That is the punch line - right there. The article is purely bait to encourage burned traders back into the industry. I am struggling to believe the numbers. 39%? I think they are pulling our legs!

Mystic - if you still hold the Aussie, you must be nearly at b/e? I see that it was you who sent it to the woodshed - it never recovered after you bought it! Did you buy above or below the WPP? You might make enough to paint the house shortly! Funny thing is, the darned thing can rally even while the Aussie current account deficit blows out to double the forecast! Go figure! Traders who dabble in macroeconomics are bound to end up insane in one way or another!

The news from BOJ today: "Mr Takehiko Nakao has been nominated to head the Asian Development Bank as Haruhiko Kuroda prepares to step down to lead the Bank of Japan." Both men are keen to see the YEN weaken, and Mr Haruhiko Kuroda is already on record as aiming to do just that, though he admits it is a side-effect of their fiscal policy to fight deflation, and not the main game: Japan's next central banker promises "whatever it takes" to fight deflation Yeah ... right! After the BOJ press conference today, the YEN pairs: NZPJPY ... EURJPY ... USDJPY ... CADJPY ... AUDJPY ... all weakened markedly. Our pet pair ... the GBPJPY ... is the only one of the majors that didn't rally. That is truly significant for us, because it does mean that the market is more interested in GBP weakness than JPY weakness. So while I think that we may not see our setup reappear today ... keep an eye on things ... it may just happen. Remember, after a period of consolidation, these pairs have explosive energy built up in them, and once the trigger is set, you can place trades with confidence of a strong run. One might think that after the rally (induced by the market selling off the YEN pairs) subsides, the GBPJPY might actually drop in the way that makes all of us happy. Right now all it is giving is a sound lesson in patience and vigilance. Looking through the charts, I can only see one significant change today. The 4H is showing the TDI has crossed back to the rally side, but importantly, it remains above the 50 line.. For the rest of it, the price is in a consolidation range. The 1H is a crazy mess stuck in a range of around 45 pips, with one attempt today about 16hrs ago, to break above this range. That move lasted all of 2 hours! I didn't attempt to trade it - not my cup of tea at all. Anyway - let's see what else is moving - one goes up ... another must come down.

AAAARRRRGGHHH!! Does capsicum spray work on these suckers? How about a thermonuclearmagnetic super pulse? Will that take the suckers out?

This lobbed into my Gmail box from Google: Yonatan Zunger - who works at Google said : "I have no idea why I find this clip so amusing, but I do. Some students figured out how to have a staged rendition of silent monks singing the Halleluia chorus from Handel's Messiah. I particularly like the short one on the far right." It took me awhile, but I finally cracked and had to laugh at the antics! Note the two hidden "monks" at positions #1 and #3 on the left

Suitable for Australian audiences ... but wherever you are ... if you have a J-O-B you will appreciate the insanity. Other suckers in over-taxed western nations may also relate to content! Warning - contains horrible thoughts! NB: If you depend on welfare for survival - we are talking about you! Do not watch if you do not wish to offended!

The question is ... WHERE ... is the matrix! You are right ... we are doomed ... and we are doing it to ourselves. If the gun nuts don't get us ... the human rights protectors will ... or Google. Who is the greater threat to our privacy, liberty and peace? Oh where ... oh where ... are those plans to have picnics on the sweeping lawns of the creek bank with the grand-kids, with parrots screeching in the trees and kangaroos grazing peacefully just a few metres away?

DB - I wish I hadn't read that - I will never sleep soundly again! That article should have been posted in: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/15505-does-my-head.html But in either place, I would be just as freaked out! It is probably a bridge between both threads - scary movie indeed! We are beyond 1984 ...there is no turning back ... no place to hide ... we can no longer know the enemy.

Just a word of warning .... Today the YEN is expecting high impact news from the BOJ on three fronts which could badly affect our position in this trade. Currently I have an entry - short - from 141.01 on demo. There is a small profit there, and I am going to take it, and watch for an opportunity to get back in after the dust settles - IF the trend resumes its downwards path. Given that the BOJ does not list the timing of its announcements, and given its propensity for shocking markets (intentionally) I am taking this precaution. We already know the BOJ and the Japanese politicians want a weaker YEN. If the news goes that way today, we could find ourselves staring at a 200-pip move north in the GBPJPY ... or nothing ... or a strong move south ... if the news actually strengthens the YEN. I do not think we should take that risk. There is always another trade. I am out of this position as of now @ 140.85 ... but looking to re-enter later if the downtrend resumes. Remember we are trading the higher TF, but this news today is three-fold, and has the potential to put us into an irrecoverable loss situation, because the news is a potential trend-changer. Not all news will do this - in fact most news causes a blip, followed by a resumption of the trend, even though it may be at an altered level. Trade carefully, and keep eyes open for other trades as well.

For those following this thread, we have our entry signal. I didn't write it on any charts, but this could be shorted at any time now, from around 140.90 if you can get that price. I am not advocating financial advice to anyone here - this is an exercise in understanding a strategy. What should happen now is that people mark these levels on charts and perhaps take a demo trade, and see where it goes ... but more importantly, see WHY price goes where it does. As mentioned I have no problem eating humble pie if I am wrong - I have no success figures to claim here - I am merely showing how I trade. As you can see from the 4H chart - it is impressively set up to take the short now - our patience has been rewarded, and I am expecting this to return us some sweet pips. I can see this finishing somewhere around 138.40 which is the most recent closing low from 27th February. The fibs 61.8 would have us close this at around 139.55 so there should be around 140+ pips in this trade. Remember, I am still trying to get the market to do what I say, but have never succeeded, so ignore my ramblings. Anyway - it is 3.40am here, and I should have been asleep 4 hours ago, but I could see this setting up, and did not want to miss the opportunity to demonstrate the trade as it happens. Good luck if you are following, but remember, I am not recommending any live trades here. We have not even seen one trade work out yet, and there has been no discussion and very few questions. Enjoy.

Since posting the charts etc in post #34 above, the market has continued sideways. I think we have dropped about 20 pips. I think 141.00 will be a battleground. If you are thinking of trading this, I recommend placing a pending short around 140.85, with wide stops, and a TP order, because this pair can mover fast ... and if you are not at the computer - at least you can take profits somewhere before a rebound. Other info: The Average Daily Range of the GBPJPY is at 139 pips right now, but it moved only 41 pips today, 86 pips yesterday, 107 before that ... so we may catch up with the average very quickly. The Euro and London sessions are due to start shortly, as I write, so watch carefully. I hope you are watching other pairs too as we develop this thread. I have not written about any of them But I can see the GBPUSD is looking like it also wants to drop lower. I think the central banks are all due to make some kind of speeches this week, so be wary.

You are asking a question that can not be answered Jivanjiao. If I say "Do not use " *** " broker because of " *** " reasons, I might get sued by them and be asked to prove it. If I say "use " *** " broker because of " *** " reasons, then if you make a loss, you might want to sue ME. I suggest you go to: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/beginners-bootcamp/12903-best-forex-broker.html and do a lot of reading. Become a member, and ask questions there. I use a broker based in my country, Australia, because our regulations are tougher than the USA regulations, which in my opinion are weak and useless, because the USA regulators do not have the courage to charge criminal brokers and punish them for their dishonesty. In Australia, we do not tolerate criminal fraud by our brokers - at least when it becomes known. Companies are de-registered, and the directors punished by fines and imprisonment. This does not happen in the USA as most of the criminals are contributing to the political campaigns of those whose duty it is to oversee a fair and honest system. It is the corruption you see the USA accusing everyone else of, but blind to their own. Take MFGlobal MF Global - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and PFGBest PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized | Zero Hedge as recent examples of the USA regulators failing to fulfill the duty they are paid to do, as guardians of the public. It is a scandal and a disgrace for anyone to preside over such obviously corrupt activity, and not take any action. A disgrace, shameful. We are right off-topic here, but your questions have hopefully been answered, and my attitude to corruption in high places revealed. My best answer is to keep small amounts of cash only in any trading account, and try to deal with a broker with an established good reputation. Do not deal in a jurisdiction where the politicians are weak, and lack the will to provide justice to those weaker than themselves. I wish you the best of luck - it is getting harder to find anyone dealing with money today who is honest and fair. I apologise for the long answer, but this is something that angers me, and of which I like to warn others.

Back again ... Henry - don't confuse a pullback in the higher TF as a change of direction. Having said that, we can not be certain that we do NOT have that change of direction - that is why we bounce off the TF we do, in search of the trend and the pull-back and the entry. Right now, it may seem a bit tedious - but in fact it does not take long to eyeball a few charts and nail ONE setup. It's not possible for me to post all of them in one thread - particularly when attempting to explain the strategy. When something doesn't work out according to the rules - suddenly we have a great learning opportunity. So let's look at this and see what went wrong ... and what went right ... and where are we right now with the GBPJPY. You already know that price "breathes" - ie moves from open ... up ... back to open ... down ... back up a little ... and closes. That is the basis of the candle stick, or the OHLC price bar. So the Monthly and the weekly candles are still a work in progress, regardless of what they look like just 2 days into the month/week. I'd put my left * on it that the GBPJPY will drop this week ... though I was wrong before (once) Eyeballing, and looking at the MACD Histogram/Stochastic on the Monthly / Weekly charts, confirms, for our purposes, that we are indeed in a down trend. Everything else - including the Daily, is a tool for our purposes - and that is, to identify pull-backs to the main trend Are you looking at the price fluctuation, rather than the basic trend? When the GBPJPY decided to move, it's "get outta the way" ! They do not call her the "Beast" for nothing. Our job is to get in front of that move accurately and at the best possible entry. That can mean placing a pending order and waiting ... or simple taking an entry when price moves past a level we deem as indicative of the resumption of the trend. How we decide what that price level is, will be determined by: 1) The Stochastic crossing the 23.6 or 76.4 and/or ... 2) A sharp crossing of the TDI on the 4H chart and/or ... 3) ADXC crosses (arrows) on the 4H chart indicating a change of direction as seen in the change in price in the current candle, but passing support on the previous candle - actually the candle on which the arrow appears. Do not forget - the "ADX Crosses" arrows do not appear on the current candle, but the previous one. However, they are triggered by current price causing the ADX to cross, and this is shown by the arrow now appearing on the previous candle. And remember that the "ADX crosses" are NOT signals to enter/exit the trade - they are just another confirmatory tool we use to understand the moves. Do not be too concerned or confused by that - truth is it is just another tool to let you know we have a change of trend. Just like the TDI on the 4H chart does. But the TDI, when crossing from above the "50" line usually indicated a good move in a pair. As I write, I can indeed see that the TDI HAS crossed to the short side, and is above the 50 level. But I would not regard this as a strong signal at this time - it is but one cog in the wheel. Now if you look at the Daily chart, we can see price is stalling at the moment. It has not made much of a higher high, and has only reached about half of its Average Daily Range (ADR). So it can still do anything - it can rally hard if the YEN weakens, or it can plunge in our expected direction, if we see GBP weakness. I do not talk too much about currency strength these days - it's a dirty word in central banking circles! I don't want to offend a banker! Anyway - some charts for you to mull over, and please keep firing in your questions. It is early days in the thread, and I am certain I will also have a bit of egg on my face at some time. I don't make too many claims about what the market might be doing - I still have heaps of humble pie in the fridge from previous occasions when I was wrong ... that I have to eat! BTW - ignore the current open position in this pair that you can see on the charts. That has nothing to do with this discussion.

Hi Henry - thanks for that question - will be on in a few hours, and will try to flesh it out then. I am certain others will have the same question ... and more. Cheers - family time first

Thanks MMS - will give this a fly later.