Ingot54

Could be, MM ... could be. Australia has always been about 15 years behind the USA, so this is probably prophetic. Bit we here are not silly ... just slow ... :rofl: "It's called 'The American Dream' because you have to be asleep to believe it." Carlin's epithet's used to bug me, but now that I realise how direct you have to be to get people's attention, I accept it. Some of his stuff is a bit 'out there' ... but sure as eggs, he shoots straight. We don't have any George Carlin's in Oz ... and now you've lost him too. R.I.P. George.

Then it may follow that the more players there are, the lower the volatility, as the likelihood of any one of 10,000 players accepting a price becomes a higher probability. The more players ... the more liquidity. The only spanner in those works then, is market sentiment and herd mentality. We saw this over the past 10 days - herds and sentiment! Has anything really changed? Why was the DOW good value on TUESDAY, but stank on THURSDAY? No reason at all - the market was spooked by fear, that's all - value didn't change. Back to the topic ...

Yes, PA18 - there is always a voice of reason ... but it depends on your point of view too, and what you see as "reason." To me it is fairly plain, and instead of rambling, I will copy/paste from the Australian version of The Daily Reckoning: *************************** A Five-Step Plan Towards Making the World Right Again By Greg Canavan The gold standard removes the determination of cash-induced changes in purchasing power from the political arena. It's general acceptance requires the acknowledgement of the truth that one cannot make all people richer by printing money. The abhorrence of the gold standard is inspired by the superstition that omnipotent governments can create wealth out of little scraps of paper. - Ludwig Von Mises Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We will build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration camp. That's the bastion of money. - Adolf Hitler In a moment I'll reveal a 5-step plan that will ensure investors and retirees are rewarded not punished for saving. A plan that also provides a stable economic environment for businesses to plan for the future – without having to second guess central bank market manipulations. But first, consider these facts about how serious America's debt situation now is: The US Government ran a budget deficit of $1.24 trillion in 2008, $1.44 trillion in 2009, $1.58 trillion in 2010 and is on track for a deficit of around $1.3 trillion in 2011. Over the same timeframe, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and increased its asset holdings from $951bn at the end of 2007 to $2.85 trillion as of 27 July 2011. It simply printed money to purchase the assets. Not surprisingly then, currency in circulation in the US economy – the fuel for inflation – has jumped from $773.9bn in 2007 to $1.03 trillion as of 27 July. That's a 33 per cent surge in 3.5 years. Over the same time frame, the economy has grown just 5.2 per cent. That's in 'current' dollars. Adjusting for official inflation, which is more than likely bogus, the US economy has not grown since the third quarter of 2007. So all this money printing by the Fed and debt issuance by the government has achieved absolutely nothing – apart from enriching the ruling class to the detriment of just about everyone else. Money printing and fiscal largesse in other parts of the world have also only had fleeting impacts on economic growth. The message seems obvious. All the stimulus and increase in government debt is useless. It has a very short term and misleading effect on the economy. And it leaves a lasting legacy of an increase in a nation's total debt levels. Despite this obvious fact there is an unbelievably ingrained tendency for investment professionals, mainstream economists, journalists and society as a whole to ask what the government is going to do to fix things. If you're of that persuasion, here's a newsflash – government and central bank policy is the problem. Until society as a whole starts to recognise that, we'll continue heading down the slippery slope that we're on. But instead of criticising, I'm going to propose a modest and simple solution – a return to the principles of sound money. At it's most basic, having a 'sound' monetary system involves removing a government's ability to influence, manage or interfere with a nation's currency. In removing the government from the role of monetary management, a sound money policy puts it in the hands of the market. That sound money advocates handing monetary policy over to the market might alarm you. After all, the 'free market' cops its share of blame for causing all sorts of economic problems. But not many people stop to think of this simple fact – there is no free market in money. Central banks set the price of money and regulate that price every day. And as the evidence shows, they have done a pretty bad job. Taking the ability to create and set the price of money out of their hands would be a giant step forward in improving the economic system. To do this, gold needs to be officially recognised as a tool in setting monetary policy. But it needs to be done correctly. Returning to a gold standard should not involve tying gold to paper currencies at a fixed-price level. That's what the Bretton Woods agreement came up with after WWII and it was doomed to failure. Recognising there is no such thing as absolute stability is the key. Ludwig von Mises raised this issue in Human Action: The gold standard is certainly not a perfect or ideal standard. There is no such thing as perfection in human things. But nobody is in a position to tell us how something more satisfactory could be put in place of the gold standard. The purchasing power of gold is not stable. But the very notions of stability and unchangeability of purchasing power are absurd. In a living and changing world there cannot be any such thing as stability of purchasing power... It is an essential feature of money that it's purchasing power is changing.' With that in mind, a modern gold standard could be implemented via a series of steps over a number of years. In summary, these steps would be: Step 1 – Firstly the gold market needs to be a 'free' market. At the moment the US manages the US dollar against gold via the activities of the major investment banks in the futures market. The devaluation of the US dollar is 'controlled' although as more and more dollars come into existence, the ability to exert this control is diminishing. Operating this way is like conducting monetary policy back-to-front. It creates all sorts of false price signals and distortions. (See Step 4 for the right way to do it). Step 2 – In a free gold market, central banks must stop buying their government's debt and print money to buy gold instead. Doing so over a period of years would help set a stable free-market price of gold and provide them with a sound asset on their balance sheet. We have no idea where gold would rise to in such a scenario, but let's say it's around US$5,000 an ounce. Step 3 – National banknotes should promise to pay the bearer in gold. This way citizens have a recognised alternative to paper currency if they don't like the way their govt/central bank is acting. If inflationary policies were followed, people could take their notes to their bank and exchange it for gold. This would drain gold from the central bank and push its price up against the currency in question. It would therefore be a signal to central bankers to pull their head in. Step 4 – Following this process would mean central banks conduct monetary policy by ensuring their currency trades within a well defined and communicated range. So in the case above, the Fed could manage the dollar within a range of US$5,000 to $5,250 per gold ounce. If gold traded above $5,250, it would signal that monetary policy is too loose. The market would impose discipline. That way we wouldn't have to put up with the arbitrary decisions of a few central bankers – decisions that have caused so much trouble. Step 5 – Finally, gold must replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, or at the very least severely curtail it. This would actually happen in conjunction with the other steps. In reality, the US would not give up this 'exorbitant' privilege easily. And there you have it. We're sure there are flaws to such a plan, but nothing worse than the current system we have. The market is forcing some of these changes now. The investment banks are slowly but surely losing their grip on the futures market as their methods become widely known. Many central banks around the world, sick of absorbing surplus US dollars, are now buying gold instead of selling it. Gold is in the process of re-setting to much higher prices. Or more accurately, national currencies are declining in value against the market's chosen vehicle for sound money – gold. This simply reflects the economic damage and wealth loss over decades of monetary mis-management. But let's not kid ourselves that a concerted move to sound money policies is going to come from those who stand to lose the most. We'll need a crisis for that. The way things are going, we might not have too long to wait. Best regards, Greg Canavan Editor, Sound Money. Sound Investments ********************************** These things are beginning to stand out a lot more, to a lot more people. We are being shown the Libertarian way ... but does it have its flaws too? best wishes Ingot

Just a quick heads-up for a charting package that includes Currency futures and Commodities futures. It is a free download. Data comes free with the package. Do not rely on the accuracy of the data - rather, this is simply for charting purposes. Keep in mind that I strongly recommend AGAINST using MT4 for active trading. There are good reasons NOT to use MT4 LIVE, but this is not the place to discuss that. I was looking for a decent charting package for Futures based on the MT4 model, and this is what I came up with: Forex | CFD Trading | Commodities | Futures | MetaTrader Strictly for charting if you are having difficulties with other packages. You will need to load the attached MT4 StochasticRSI indicator if you do go this way. Best wishes Ingot Stochastic_rsi_forex-instruments.mq4

I don't know anything about the above - just tossed in there to stir the pot. But can this stuff be ignored? Somewhere between the nutso's and the lobbyists, stands Ron Paul. Where does he stand in the spectrum of truth in all of this? Ron Paul "It's Time We Quit This! It's Trillions Of Dollars We're Spending On These Wars! Debate pt6 - YouTube EDIT: You'll find it all here anyway: http://whatreallyhappened.com/

George Carlin has long been an outspoken loudmouth comic, but putting aside his liberal expletives, I find he makes his point well. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0yhHHPc7IU&NR=1]George Carlin Illuminati New World Order Exposed - YouTube[/ame]

This thread could be a great launch pad for nutty ideas, disguised as revealing serious risk to freedom ... or could it be vice-versa?

If you are sitting next to someone who irritates you on a plane or train... 1. Quietly and calmly open up your laptop case. 2. Remove your laptop. 3. Boot it. 4. Make sure the person who won’t leave you alone can see the screen. 5. Open your email client to this message. 6. Close your eyes and tilt your head up to the sky. 7. Then hit this link: http://www.thecleverest.com/countdown.swf

Not exactly a joke ... but a light-hearted Ed Seykota like you may never have seen him before. I found and pasted the lyrics for those who are twisted enough to want to sing along. The Whipsaw Song (bet you don't listen through to the end ... you might, Bob) [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM]The Whipsaw Song - YouTube[/ame] You get a whip and I get a saw, honey You get a whip and I get a saw, babe You get a whip and I get a saw One good trend pays for ‘em all. Honey, trader, ba-by mine. What do we do when we catch a trend, honey … etc. We ride that trend right to the end. Honey, trader, ba-by mine. What do we do when we show a loss, honey … etc. We give that dag-gone loss a toss. Honey, trader, ba-by mine. How do we know when our risk is right, honey … etc. We make a lot of money and we sleep at night. Honey, trader, ba-by mine. What do we do when the price breaks through, honey … etc. Our stops are in so there’s nothing to do. Honey, trader, ba-by mine. What do we do when a draw down comes, honey What do we do when it gets real big, babe What do we do when it’s even bigger … We stick to the plan and pull the trigger. What do we do with a hot news flash, honey … etc. We stash that flash right in the trash Honey, trader, ba-by mine.

Hmmm. No more share tips for you, Bob ... and I am reviewing my Christmas list.

Bill Gates reportedly compared the computer industry with the auto industry and stated, "If General Motors had kept up with the technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon." In response, General Motors issued a press release stating that if GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with the following characteristics: For no reason whatsoever, your car would crash twice a day. Every time they repainted the lines in the road, you would have to buy a new car. Occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason. You would have to pull over to the side of the road, close all of the windows, shut off the car, restart it, and reopen the windows before you could continue. For some reason you would simply accept this. Occasionally, executing a manoeuvre such as a left turn would cause your car to shut down and refuse to restart, in which case you would have to reinstall the engine. Only one person at a time could use the car unless you bought "CarNT," but then you would have to buy more seats. Macintosh would make a car that was powered by the sun, was reliable, five times as fast and twice as easy to drive - but it would only run on five percent of the roads. The warning lights for the oil pressure, water temperature and alternator would all be replaced by a single "general protection fault" warning light. New seats would force everyone to have the same sized butt. The airbag system would ask, "Are you sure?" before deploying. Occasionally, for no reason whatsoever, you car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key and grabbed hold of the antenna. GM would require all car buyers to also purchase a deluxe set of Rand McNally road maps (now a GM subsidiary), even though they neither need nor want them. Attempting to delete this option would immediately cause the cars performance to diminish by 50 percent or more. Moreover, GM would become a target for investigation by the Justice Department. Every time GM introduced a new car, car buyers would have to learn to drive all over again because none of the controls would operate in the same manner as the old car. You'd have to press the "start" button to turn the engine off.

I can't remember, Ahimsa ... it was a very long time ago! :rofl:

Hi Russell Thanks for baring your trading soul for critique - takes courage, and I thank you for your openness. Just my opinion here, but once the conditions I had set down to fulfill my trading plan have changed, I have to reassess whether the trade still fits the rules. If the reward-to-risk has shrunk, then should you proceed? My own trading is based on the probabilities of the trade proceeding in a favorable direction. What are the probabilities of losing more than 2% of your capital in these two situations? Would you have entered these trades based on the exact same conditions being presented to you without the existence of those gaps? Have those gaps really added to the likelihood off successful trading, or have they introduced further risk? I know gaps sometimes get filled, but that is because of the swinging nature of price over time - it is not actually a set-in-stone event that must come to pass during the life of your own trade. What is most interesting and important, would be the case of the trade remaining within the rules. If in doubt - get out. Avarice has the right attitude, imho - preserve your capital - they won't let you trade if you don't have it. There is always another trade - and there will be other "good" setups. Don't get attached to a trade - only trade the best setups ... or "true" setups. Still learning these same things myself Russell, so I am in no position to preach - just a reminder of helpful considerations.

Pat Martino - his fingers were burning up the strings. Thanks JEHS - I found a new artist. Something a bit slower tempo ... and heavier ... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7g5YKEEPoI]‪Everybody Hurts - REM Live‬‏ - YouTube[/ame] Don't forget - the guy/girl next to you isn't always OK.

You'll keep! We golfers have long memories!

That is really inspiring, Optiontimer. It shows what can be done with discipline and patience. I am looking forward to the coming week, and the opportunities which will come for trading. Good trends begin after huge Fundamental upheavals. The EURUSD ran up to a high in July 2008, but then turned and created a beautiful down-trend, many segments of which were very tradeable. We do not know, of course what will occur, but we do have a strategy to approach the opportunity. Cheers Ingot

Well done Russell - those are very nice numbers - congrats. for such a good record there. You are setting a good standard there - and you show what can be done. Thanks mate for sharing this with us.

For people like myself, this is exactly what I need Optiontimer - I have used written-down rules in the past - usually do ... but took it for granted this time - unsure why I haven't committed such rules to paper this time - maybe because of the paper trading, and not using a live a/c yet! I am unashamed to disclose that I was remiss in doing this - covering up silliness only fools oneself. And I know I have made myself appear less than smart in this thread, but I am answerable only to myself and family, and I have gained immeasurably more through being open about my trading situation, than I might have through toughing ... or bluffing ... it out! Thanks for your patience Optiontimer and the other traders who have replied with kindness. Some people spot this stuff and it sticks. Others like myself need to visualise it before that happens, and that only happens when it is in a written form. The week has been a bit slow regarding trades, but I am not impatient to trade - only impatient with myself to take on board the principles I need. Thanks for you helpful response(s). Best wishes Ingot

Thanks for that site, MMS - I have definitely bookmarked it for regular chilling out! I liked these: Racehorse Unaware It Just Cost Some Kid New Braces | The Onion - America's Finest News Source Prosthetic Arm Stuck In Vending Machine | The Onion - America's Finest News Source I needed a bit of light-hearted distraction this morning - thanks!

Thanks Cees No - I am certain you haven't made an error. Initially when I was paper trading this method, I was making heaps of pips. I made 2400 the fist 10 days, and then last week I closed with nearly 830 pips profit, including a couple of losses. This week I have not been able to find one single trade, after revising my interpretation of the rules. It seems in the early part, I was taking the trades the day the 7sRSI closed in its FIRST "ticked-down" position. But I was shown that I was actually getting in too soon, because: a) I was entering BEFORE the previous high/low was surpassed (and this I understand was correct) and b) I entered at the open of the new bar, instead of waiting until the END of that new bar. I am still confused. I think now that I was just lucky to have actually made pips, in trades that were not really valid at all. Below are 2 charts of the USDJPY from 9 hours ago - the EOD bar. In chart #1 I show what the chart looked like immediately before the new bar opened. I was not considering an entry, because: 1) The 7sRSI was just on it's "alert" down-tick. and 2) Previous low had not been passed. I actually had this pair on a watch-list for tomorrow, and turned on my charts tonight to see that the pair has gone troppo! It makes me think I have either struck an aberration (you can't win them all) and the setup was very nearly complete, except for price beating the previous low, or I was right to ignore the pair until tomorrows close, to see what it looked like then. This is driving me crazy. I know I am complicating the simple strategy somewhere, but can't figure out where just yet. It will be a simple thing once I "get it." I will re-read the rules and see if I can get something into my extremely thick mind. I am not too anxious about this - I know that it is just a matter of getting the true picture, and this can be easily sorted in a moment, once I understand correctly. I am really pleased to have found such a great strategy, thanks to Optiontimer's sharing with us. It does take quite a lot of time and commitment to post what he does, and I am very grateful for that.

Thank you Cees for posting your chart. My question also relates to timing of entry, and you can see where my confusion is coming from on the chart attached. I feel once I get these issues sorted out in my feeble brain, I might attempt a live trade. I applaud your willingness to expose your thoughts to the forum mate - thank you. Your posting is really helping me come to terms with these things.

Hi Avarice I am still coming to terms with this system myself, though others seem to have a pretty good grasp already. There are two things about your entry: 1) Should you be waiting until the previous low of 56.60 has been broken? 2) Did you enter the trade a day early? Please see my questions as sincere. I thought the first point (1) needed to be fulfilled, as I had taken this technical entry myself in some trades in other instruments, and was told it was premature. Secondly, I am still trying to sort out the difference between the trigger/alert bar, and the entry bar. From my point (2) I though the bar needed to close with the 7sRSI ticking down, and you then take the NEXT bar, the following day, providing price has passed the previous low. Maybe it is my head - foggy from too many night shifts I am trying to trade this method with some kind of consistency, but somehow I seem to be managing to complicate it without trying. :crap: Have a look at the chart I post here, and let me know what you think. I am trying to be objective so please don't see this as criticism by any means, mate. I know how that can hurt when you are already doing your best.

Anyone can answer this if you are an IB client: Have you found any gapping issues with IB? I am just asking, because of the comment that there is no tick data with IB. Price can move a long way in 60 seconds - limit up / down for example. If this is not shown on the chart for 60 seconds (maybe I misunderstood) then traders are not to know if their stop -loss / take-profit has been hit or not. A gap may be an uncommon event in any case, but can be costly. It may not make any difference to whether I use IB or not - it's just something I need to understand a little better than I do. After all, one minute is not much when trading dailies. Thanks Ingot

This is where the saying comes from: "As lonely as a light-house-keeper": Yer on yer own! [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fapXUqagiFQ&feature=related]‪Ocean's Fury Unleashed‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tpl4Cr3-Tm0&NR=1]‪train colision‬‏ - YouTube[/ame] EDIT - Oops! Sorry, wrong thread. Oh well, it's done now.