Ingot54

This is not some "Strange stories ... Amazing facts" revelation. But if true, it will be quite a spectacular achievement. Remember all of that annoying spam that used to trickle into your email box ... some still does get past the filters and ISP walls. But now ... if we are to believe the story, about 50% of the world's 40-billon emails a day are now G-O-N-E! The cyber monster - the "Grum botnet" ... is dead ... finished ... gone, thanks to a concerted effort by ISP's and security firms. The mule computer system - using zombie computers infected by malware - usually without the owner being aware, has been stopped. Read the story here ...: Grum takedown: '50% of worldwide spam is gone' - Jul. 19, 2012 Believe it or not! It feels like some kind of revolutionary coup! EDIT: Out of place here ... mods - if you can find a better spot feel free to move this post. I've been away too long!

Thanks Bob … good to be back … what’s happenin’ … :cinema: All good here TN – got some kids settled in work, and refined my trading! Couldn’t be better than that! Nice to be back amongst friends Mystic. Ready for some pips? Seriously … it’s not like I’m some folk hero … I’m certainly not the Bob Dylan of trading But I’m ready to win some comps … let’s crank it up!

The comp is still open ... we just need participants ... and someone to run it. We can run it same a s last year, if people are willing to use OANDA ... or we can write new rules, stipulating start/finish times, and traders either posting a chart showing their entries/exits, or simply post the levels at time of entry/exit. If no one can run it, then traders could try to resurrect the idea of a comp through placing trades here to try to stimulate interest. I'm up for a new comp. Anyone else? Below is an example of a trade in progress ... that's all we would need to show, but post the chart immediately after entry to validate the trade as a comp. entry. Can anything go wrong with that idea?

Thanks everyone for the messages - yes I have missed you all. I won't be back as the penultimate contributor though. I simply didn't handle the kind of markets I was attempting to exploit - simple as that. However, I have rediscovered a recreational pastime I used to enjoy immensely, so have pleasantly filled the void, and wonder why I didn't "get it" 2 years after I started trading, instead of persisting, persevering and plugging on like I did for 7 years! I better stop here - I am almost posting again :missy: I am much happier away from the daily ritual, and am reacquainted with lots of things that I had neglected. I wish you all the best of the best for 2012. Life passes only once ... be careful whose promises you believe. Edit: I know you like a good earthy joke, Bob, so give me a couple of days to post up a couple of real rib-ticklers I found recently!

Can't find a "Christmas Greeting" thread, so popped this in here. No longer trading, and much happier for it. I remember you, my friends, and would like to wish you all the best of the holiday season - especially to those who personally believe that the original reason for Christmas has not changed. Regardless of that, there is no reason we can not continue to believe in a better future, and do what we can to bring it about. May your future be filled with hope and happiness. All the best Ivan http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/9358-song-day-6.html#post134790

And a Merry Christmas to you to Ahimsa. Lets hope the world is a more charitable place soon. kind regards Ivan [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAbaqzk66Vc&feature=related]WHAT A FRIEND WE HAVE IN JESUS by THE OAK RIDGE BOYS with lyrics - YouTube[/ame]

Best wishes to all Traders Laboratory members, regardless of whether you celebrate Christmas or not. This .wmv is a little different, but still something "Christmassy" Enjoy. Aussie Christmas.wmv

THE NEW MARKET INDICATOR Whether we like it or not, today’s markets are trending … trending away from Technical Analysis … away from sound Fundamental Analysis … and trending towards the previously-neglected third member of the trio … SENTIMENT ANALYSIS. For evidence of this look no further than the events of the past 5 years. Since 2006 I have been writing about, and lamenting the decay of Fundamental factors as drivers of currency trends. In 2006-2007 we saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average “rising because oil is rising” and “rising because oil is falling.” In fact the price of oil as a driver of market activity has diminished … for the moment … unless you trade the currency of oil-based economies like Canada. Why? Because of market sentiment. Forget the Fundamental drivers … and forget the Technical reasons for moves in markets. Those things are still taught as elements of market analysis, but are becoming more dissociated from the reality of market movement than at any time I can remember. A new terminology has emerged over the past few years, given as the reason for the absurdity in market behaviour. That terminology? Risk-on and Risk-off. In other words … Sentiment! And in still other words … emotional perception. Why is it that we still hope to make sense of a market where the main driver of activity is the perception that it is “more ok” today to take a risk than it was yesterday? I believe this comes right down to traders taking of a mental position on where we think price is going to go, as opposed to the high probability of where price is likely to go, based on more tangible factors, rather than sentiment. So many of us struggle to analyse the markets technically and fundamentally (or combine both) to gain our edge. The markets have been preoccupied with the concept of entire nations being declared bankrupt – even when they have been technically unable to repay their borrowings for several years. Debt has been heaped on debt as the day of reckoning has been pushed further into the future. For Greece (and soon the other members of that dubious group – Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal) the day of reckoning is at hand. Traders and watchers are no longer mesmerised, but highly anxious to secure an outcome that will not see any disastrous collapses. Is collapse inevitable? I do not know. But those in the world with the problem of having too much money and nowhere to keep it, really do have a problem now. For the past few weeks the investing world has been hanging on the outcome of meetings of Eurozone financiers. Two days ago they got their decision – the bailout of Greece, and the recapitalisation of the banks seems assured. The Risk-on crowd have emerged jubilantly and the EURO currencies have soared. Fundamentally, things have just gotten worse – further debt has been created, just as some debt has been written-off. A partial solution … a temporary solution … nothing more. Europe is sowing the wind with their bailout … and I sincerely hope they do not reap the whirlwind. I believe they have weakened their ability to withstand the financial pressures ahead. Have no doubt – the debt can only be settled in one of three ways – eventual default, austerity measures over a very long period, or hyper-inflation. Technically, things have gone into disarray – just as the natural ebb-and-flow of prices seemed to have become orderly again. Sentiment seems to have taken over the markets. So how can traders turn this to their advantage? How can we use Risk-on and Risk-off sentiment to make money in this seemingly chaotic trading environment? The answer is in re-thinking the way we approach our trading. When markets are euphoric, as we have seen over the last couple of trading days, prices over-shoot far more than they rationally should, creating an excellent advantage for technical and fundamental analysts alike. This happens regularly in all time frames and is nothing new. What is new is the extraordinary range of these moves that we are now seeing. When price “goes parabolic” it will naturally suffer a correction – frequently based on the soundness of established indicators. In my forex trading signal recommendations, I aim to exploit this new market sentiment, and occasionally some of my signals may not seem to make much sense. Sometimes I will be correct, and occasionally I will be quite wrong. The signals are meant to be a guide and are the result of the thinking of just one person – me – who is infinitely smaller than the markets. In truth, I have no idea at all what the markets are going to do next. So do NOT put real money on my signals. My free signal service is updated daily on week days, but usually I don't place much weight on signals for Mondays and Fridays. The signals are only there as a guide to complement your own analysis, and are NOT designed as stand-alone trading recommendations. Best wishes Ivan Ballin (aka Ingot54) Posted in forexapplepie.com

I don't think you need Siuya's assistance, OT - I think you are doing a pretty good job. I am also in the middle of something. Cheers, thanks, and best wishes Ingot

Well put. I don't know what the chart is, but I would be interested to follow it day-by-day to see how it develops. Good learning opportunity there, but certainly not a good trading opportunity as the rules define them. We are trading pull-backs in trends, and I don't see a trend currently as defined by the rules. The 21EMA is neither above nor below - it could more correctly be described as "at" the 65EMA. Thanks to all who commented.

Had you chosen a 20-period EMA there would not even be a question on whether there is a trade setting up. Therefore I would be looking for much better candidates to trade. Now you can kick me for saying that, and say that I am not trading strictly mechanically. But at a time when it is unclear where trend is going, I would not want to gamble on whether we are seeing an up-trend or a down-trend. Can anyone looking at that chart, say we have an up-trend, therefore we are looking to go long tomorrow? Equally, can anyone say we have a down-trend,? Because price (21EMA) has NOT crossed the 65EMA, technically the up-trend is still intact. We should be looking for opportunities to go LONG. I hope you one day find an example of what I was trying to (unsuccessfully) convey, about the EMA being "pulled" back up from downtrend to up-trend. If you look at a 1 Minute chart, you may see what can happen to an EMA when price is volatile. It doesn't really matter what I think - what matters is what I do with what I perceive as a "good" trade or a "not-so-good" opportunity. The example you gave, Optiontimer, is a little too ambiguous for me, and I would pass at this stage. That inside bar can do anything it wants - as can any bar for that matter.

PWP - I am attaching the three charts that you have picked out as trades. The GBPUSD looks great in hindsight- but I can tell you that at the time the dip down right through the 65EMA, the 21 EMA dipped BELOW the 65EMA, invalidating the trend. There was NO WAY I was going to take a trade where the right hand edge of the screen was showing a change of trend at the time. As price rallied, the 21EMA was still at or below the 65EMA on the day, causing much ambiguity, and I think you would have been hard pressed to get the trade qualified. The AUDCHF on my charts did not qualify, because price failed to break lower than the signal bar price. See chart. I simply was not watching the EURGBP so I can not say whether I might have traded it as it unfolded. There was a brief period of profit there, by the looks, before the current rally. I could not say with any confidence that I would have taken any of the three examples you have chosen. But I sincerely believe you might have seen the signals and taken those. I am looking for much better candidates, and my post was a confession that I was not finding the kind of trades that I like to take. I don't think any of the three examples would have inspired me - I can tell you 2 of them did not catch my attention, and I scan right through my watchlist EVERY trading day. I don't watch (or didn't watch) the EURGBP. Anyway I do thank you for taking the time to post those couple of charts - I do appreciate it. I am only responding because of the way I am seeing these. Maybe I missed them and really should have picked up on their setups - I don't know. Cheers mate - and thanks - it takes a bit of effort to get these charts together for posting.

Sorry to hear that Russell. Thanks for the chart.I hope you are able to nail some good trades shortly. I haven't found any currency trades over the past couple of weeks. It made me wonder if something is going on with the markets that is related to all the fuss over at the Bank Of Japan and the Swiss National Bank. Traders who follow these pairs would have noticed the sometimes-violent bounces off support/resistance these two have been displaying over recent weeks as the two Central Banks have been attempting to weaken their respective currencies. The markets have deeper pockets than any central banks, and so each time the price is sent back to support, price has rebounded like it touched an electric fence! For the USDJPY the level is in the zone 76.30 to 76.45. Any lower and the BOJ comes in and forces the Yen lower (weaker). For the USDCHF it is .7190 to .7230. Any stronger and the bank intervenes. (It appears the opposite on the chart below ... a weaker JPY would rally in the supplied chart). This kind of intervention has meant that some of the trades I was watching didn't happen. I was beginning to think that if central bank manipulation could continue to disrupt the natural flow of markets so easily, then how could any of it be trusted. I didn't want to post this negativity on such a good and positive thread, but Optiontimer encouraged me to do so, because there may be other traders who may be thinking along similar lines. My main error was in thinking that because I was not finding setups, then something must be wrong. In fact nothing is wrong - it is the cyclical nature of markets, as OT has kindly reminded me. There is no rule that says we have to be finding trades every day ... or even every week. Good lesson for me. I was reminded too about Jesse Livermore saying that he made more money through "sitting and waiting" than he did through trading. I found a link to a site that actually summarises Livermore's main maxims: Lessons from Legendary Trader Jesse Livermore | Black Swan Insights And don't forget we have the link in post # 319 to the "Reminisces of a Stock Operator" pdf here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project-16.html Thanks to Optiontimer for his patience.

Incredible post! Absolutely revealing.

I don't know how badly bent you have to be to enjoy this kind of stuff, but read on, and I hope you get a great laugh! I am definitely twisted! Prankster David Thorne behind McDonald's hoax | Information, Gadgets, Mobile Phones News & Reviews | News.com.au and the main prank is here: Bees Like Yellow. The McDonald's story is hidden in a link in the second-last email item ... http://www.27bslash6.com/images/maccas.jpg If you liked those, then you will also like this: "I have read your website and it is obviously that your a foggot." and this: Next time, I'll spend the money on drugs instead.

Before proceeding, take a look at this - for some of you this will already be old stuff. But this stuff is NOT surreal ... it is happening. Carbon Tax

In 2007, references to Carbon Credits being bought by corporations - particularly Goldman Sachs, and it may come as a surprise to some ... Al Gore and his family ... began to appear in the mainstream news. Fast-track carbon trading, says Goldman | The Australian Al Gore, Carbon Credits, the "Green" Scam and... Goldman Sachs? | Jr Deputy Accountant What???!!! Al Gore, the "Inconvenient Truth" man??? Yes folks, you have been had ... but the thread is NOT about Al Gore and his cruel hoax. It is about the results and purpose of that hoax, in small part only. The Global Warming / Carbon Credits hoax is being used here only as an EXAMPLE. If you want to talk about the right / wrong / science is in / out on AGW ... then please start a new thread for that. What has happened is that the Carbon Credits trading scheme is going to be the vehicle to usher in a global power structure, where Centralist Government, controlled by corporate interests, will be able to manipulate the price of Carbon in YOUR country, similarly to how they manipulate the price of Stocks, Metals and Commodities already today. The CBOT and CFTC do this already by manipulating the level of margin required to trade these instruments. By increasing/decreasing the margin requirement, and by short-selling huge numbers of derivative contracts, markets are steered any which way. So for a bit more reading ... and to pave the way for further discussion, here is an interesting article from Tuesday's "Rolling Stone": Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes? | Rolling Stone Politics Perhaps you will understand a little more about globalism, fascism, extractionism, and the simple over-involvement of lobbyists and corporations, in the process of government all over the world. We will then be able to talk more about "Extractionism" ... or ... its real name ... fascism.

This brings me to the reasons I included the Dylan Ratigan /Ed Rendell "Democracy for Sale" video in the first post. If you listened carefully, you would have heard Ed Rendell say: "38% OF CORPORATIONS IN THE USA PAY NO TAXES." I don't know about you, but I am wondering how that came about. Here in Australia, foreign corporations that invest in this country (Australia), can escape taxation here, under dubious "Double Taxation" rules Australian corporate taxation for multinationals It is easy to see how a bit of creative accounting, coupled with the "38% pay no taxes" situation, could make Australia a very exciting investment situation indeed, unless I am just being paranoid, and everyone really IS honest after all. But we are digressing. What has this to do with the rise of Fascism and the West? We shall see in due course. I would like you to try to understand something first. Watch the Dylan Ratigan video in the first post, and here in ZDO's great thread at Post #12 THE EMPEROR WEARS NO CLOTHES! Ratigan Spells-It-Out! PAY ATTENTION OBAMA!!! - YouTube Now pay attention to the first 20 seconds of that video. Tatigan mentions a term I have never heard before, but I believe it is 100% synonymous with and congruent with, FASCISM. Only the word he uses - "EXTRACTIONIST" - is a euphemism for "Fascist." Had Ratigan, and others used the term "Fascist" or "Fascism" I believe they would have been dismissed immediately and never gained any traction. But we live in an information age, and wherever a new term or idea comes up, people will sniff around until they get to the bottom of it. Ratigan says in his opening 20 seconds statement: " ... our government can't acknowledge the root cause which is the fact that there is an extraction in trade practice in banking in this country that has been going on for a long time and covering it up by printing money is only a recipe to make it worse ..." Focus on that word "EXTRACTION" and I'll see you in a little while ...

So already you may ask "what has that to do with fascism?" To begin with, ensure you understand what fascism really is. In a nutshell, it is the involvement of corporations in government to the extent that political parties no longer matter - the state is owed by, and serves, the interests of the corporation. In other words, the money in business has BOUGHT the politicians, and government no longer serve the electorate, but the lobby, and the corporation. You can find more, and even variations and examples throughout history of fascism, here: Fascism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia That was easy. Up next - a bit more reading ...

The rise of fascism ... is it at the bottom of the problems we are seeing world-wide at the moment? http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/08/17/democracy-for-sale/ That little link was a spin-off from ZDO's great little thread here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/10473-not-just-another-release.html#post125947 Pay particular attention to the COMMENTS at the bottom of the Dylan Ratigan video. Then we can talk.

Dylan Ratigan continues to tell the truth: GET THE MONEY OUT OF CONGRESS!! EDIT - (link failed) http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/08/17/democracy-for-sale/

Aboriginal Bush Tracker - Somewhere between Karratha and Onslow in remote Western Australia An Australian tour guide was showing a group of American tourists the Top End. On their way to Kakadu in one of Australia's famous National Parks, he was describing the legendary abilities of the Australian Aborigine to track man or beast over land, through the air, and under the sea. The Americans were incredulous. Later in the day, the tour rounded a bend on the highway and discovered, lying in the middle of the road, an Aborigine. He had one ear pressed to the white line whilst his left leg was held high in the air. The tour stopped and the guide and the tourists gathered around the prostrate Aborigine. "Jacky," said the tour guide, "what are you tracking and what are you listening for?" The aborigine replied, "Down the road about 25 miles is a 1967 Dodge Ute. It's a red one. The left pront tyre is bald. The pront end is out of whack, and him got bloody dents in every panel. There are 9 black fellas in the back, all drinking warm sherry. There are 3 kangaroos on the roof rack and 6 dogs on the front seat." The American tourists moved forward, astounded by this precise and detailed knowledge. "Good grief man ... how do you know all that?," asked one. The Aborigine replied......... I fell out off the pucken thing 'bout half an hour ago!".

I can understand that dilemma, PWP. I appreciate that you may not have arrived at that +1400 pips without keeping your stop in place. I also appreciate that you may never get the 3000 pips, or 5,000 pips ... or 17,000 pips that the market offers from time to time, if the stops are trailed too closely. These profits are there - just take a look at a few of the Monthly charts, so it is not a hypothetical situation. The alternative is to switch off the mind and follow the rules ... follow Kroll ... and take what the market gives. Except at some point you have to decide what kind of profits you are willing to accept, and that includes accepting that some will be left on the table. I think out of 10 traders following the OT / Kroll method, most would strike an entry at nearly the same level. Yet it is hard to imagine more than 2 of the 10 taking an exit at the same point. Exits are what sort out the calibre of the trader, imho only. There is NO profit until the trade is closed, and I believe this is an issue where it will be hard to reach consensus, let alone conformity/uniformity. Is it better to take an earlier profit and then seek a new trade / re-entry, or watch the profits erode in the HOPE that the trade will eventually turn around again and bring in a bonanza? Taking arbitrary profits precludes the trader from participating in the big wins. I guess it comes down to what you really want from the markets after all.

I know I am going to cop heaps for saying this, but here are the thoughts you asked for, PWP: What is it that you want from the markets? To my way of thinking, a trailing stop to lock in at least 1100 of those pips may have been a way to get what I want from the markets. There are always other trades. How many trades on average get to more than +1400 pips? Maybe my thoughts are defective and need a bit more bashing about to bring me to conformity. I know the purpose of the OT strategy is to get into juicy long trends, but I think we have to be a little more rational about it - we do not have a crystal ball, and if the market hands me +1400 pips, then I am not going to be dreaming about 3,000 pips without locking some of it in. As pure TA traders, we are supposed to trade what we see. But it is a fact - and no one will convince me otherwise - that the higher up the TF traded, the more FA comes into the equation and must be respected. The SNB and BOJ have both placed traders on notice that they will not stand by and watch their currencies appreciate ad infinitum. Consequently it should have been no surprise when the CHF pairs and the JPY pairs reversed rather violently the other night. I was watching the markets at the time, because I chat on Messenger with a trader mate who scalps, and we were discussing this very issue. We watched the CHF pairs and the JPY pairs hit support, and then rally violently, from where they are slowly trickling back to where they were before intervention. The CHF pairs averaged 1000+ pips rally, and the JPY between 250 and 450 pips. The point is this - when you become aware of likely Central bank Intervention in natural market forces (and you could make an argument that Central Bank Intervention IS a part of the "natural market") - you then have to cover your position somewhat. My pockets are not deep enough to allow 1400 pips to be in my a/c and then allow them to flow away again. How many more trades will you see that deliver 1400 pips+ ? If the answer is "quite a few" then why not take profits and get set for the next one. If the answer is "very few" then again, the solution is to accept that rare event as it presents, and take or lock in profits. PWP - it is easy for someone like me to sit back and offer free advice after the event - it is a bit cruel, and I accept that, and would say that this is just one person's view, and not meant in any way to hurt you. If you read back through this thread, you will see that I have had to learn a few lessons too - and I suspect OT will have something more to say about my attitude after this "opinion." Regardless, I accept that, and even look forward to it because I do not speak from the position of profitability that he and yourself are coming from. That alone should tell you how little my opinion is really worth. Best wishes Ingot

Hi Optiontimer Well done on the trades. Regarding the "quiet" thread recently - I found very few suitable trades worth taking. This week I can see a few beginning to set up. Maybe in the next 24 hrs. Also, with respect to the GCI platform (in above post) - it is based on the time zone GMT +13 - unsuitable for me. I was unaware of that at the time of the post.