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Tiobingo
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Everything posted by Tiobingo
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This is a very informative thread. I haven't heard anyone mention Tradestation as an ES broker. Does anyone have an opinion? They are very inexpensive and I use them with other markets but I haven't traded ES with them. Any thoughts?
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Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?
Tiobingo replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
For me, the thing about technical analysis that is important to realize, is the belief that everything happening in the world that effects a market, is reduced down to the current price. So as price moves, it is supposed to be a reflection of the change in balance between the two opposing forces, buyers and sellers. Charts, indicators, etc. are just tools to help interpret the price action. In my view, it is easier to interpret price action than it is to interpret every fundemental fact (or fiction) that occurs at each moment, worldwide. That's not to say you can't take advantage of specific world events. I believe you surely can. But you can look at the price action and use technical analysis to take advantage of it. IMO, tech analysis works best when you focus primarily on price action and then use other TA tools to help confirm your assumptions. -
I think Robertm makes an excellent point. Results are more important than accuracy. And news events and spikes due to market reaction are common place. In the end we're dealing with lagging indicators, which do have their place but can easily be overused and overvalued. I look at price action and will test my ideas, like a breakout idea for example, and see how it did when happening in the direction of a slower trend vs. against a slower trend. The results often surprise me too. Intuitively you might think that taking a trade on a faster timeframe might be more effective when trading with the slower timeframe trend direction, whether it's on a slower ema on the same chart, or a slower chart all together. But often, the faster timeframe does quite well against the slower ema as it wants to pull back to it. To answer the question of this thread directly though, I would prefer to see a longer period indicator on my faster chart than to watch muti time frame charts. I prefer it all on one chart, rather than multiple charts. It's just easier to look at and saves monitor real estate. It also helps me eliminate the risk of too much information.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Tiobingo replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi Jonathon. Do you trade at all? -
I trade emini futures and I had a great May! Glad I didn't go away.. lol.. June has been pretty great too for the most part. I do feel like I need a vacation though.
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The definition to success is trading your tradeplan accurately and moving your account in a positive direction on a consistent basis. Apply proper money management techniques and the rest will take care of itself, so long as you remain vigilant. I agree with AmCan1 that you have to treat it as a business.
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Jajuanm2, that is very good advice. Setting goals is key to success. Moving the account forward incrementally. I have traded the NQ for quite some time with a variety of strategies, most of them in the 4 to 8 point range. Currently I use a 2 point range bar and have had very good results. My trades of late are in the 7 point range, give or take. I find that a trailing stop works well too and I could catch some larger moves on most sessions. It's a great market, for sure. I'm going to look at your longer term volume charts too. I like that idea. I think its smart to go for fewer trades to keep the trade costs down, if you can hit a reasonable winning percentage. Thanks..
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evroom, I apologize for missing the mark with your thread. It wasn't my intention to talk about me in a 'me' context. I was just using myself as an example. Sorry though because I didn't really want to get off topic. Your question is intriguing to me and I was just wondering if there was some other motive, other than to make money. It wasn't meant as a judgment to your question or idea. I guess I just wanted to understand the reason for seeking such a trade methodology. And now I can see from hunter1's post the essence of this idea. Not being a floor trader had me thinking about it differently.:crap:
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Nothing wrong with that WorldTrader. I tend to lower my expectations on uncertain days like Fedspeak days or big expiration days. So if I have early success, I'm inclined to quit early and get on with my day too. I don't mind a good excuse to turn the computer off once in a while.
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I love these kind of trade discussions. I'd like to add my 2 cents to some already very thoughtful and insightful posts. To me, context to one trader is goobly glop to another. It's one of those beauty is in the eye of the beholder, type of things. That's what makes a market, right? I view the interpretation of context as the 'art part' of trading. Here's what I mean. I have tried to reduce my trading down to a trade system that is easy to follow with rules that make sense and provide robust and positive results across different markets and timeframes. I base it on price action, mostly and use my very few indicators to either confirm my setups or to calculate my trade profiles. That is the objective side. I believe much of the 'necessary' context as stated in a prior post, is baked into the price action, or at least, enough to base my trades on, so I'm one of those guys. However, over time I have learned to improve my results by a few percentage points but adding about 10% art to my trading. I view this as interpretting some context -- but not too much. Too much 'art' impacts my results negatively and analysis paralysis becomes a problem. All of a sudden my system that was working, isn't as effective. So the trick is (for me anyway), finding the balance between my objective system and my subjective interpretation of context mixed in, just a little. After a lot of experience, and improving by learning from my bonehead mistakes, my feel for my market is worth more than it was in the past. In my view, only experience can give you this sort of thing. I do not believe it can be taught. Perhaps intellectually, but not in practical terms that would be meaningful to someone who hasn't put the time in to gait experience. As a result, I have even been able to reduce most of my 'discretionary' trade decisions into rules that have since become part of my objective system. In the end, my contextual (10% art side to trading) has slid over to the objective side of the equation and is now not really art anymore. lol.. That could be programmed I think, without much difficulty, although I am not a programmer. I hope I am making sense. In my mind I am.. lol..
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evroom1, I'm not perfectly clear on what your trying to achieve. Are you trying to trade without charts or are you trying to make money as a trader? Hopefully you can see that the objective might be different for those two choices. I trade and do quite well. My trade setups are based on price action. I then use my very select (and few) indicators to confirm the price action and to calculate my targets and stops. I incorporate a very simple trade mgt scheme (kiss) and quit most sessions with a positive result, moving my account forward at a steady pace. As my account grows, using very tight and controlled but simple money mgt, I scale up my position size over time, sticking to my very effective and simple to follow rules. That's it. My obejective is to make money trading. It's amazing what one could accomplish with simple, clear and concise objectives. I wonder about the motive of learning how to trade without charts. To make money? Or, something else?
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Teamtrader, thank you for the response and the chart. Please don't take my comments to be negative or argumentative. That is not my intention. I enjoy a good trade conversation and my questions and comments are in the spirit of 'furthering our cause' and for learning. I'm not retired but I can sure identify with tired! I live on the West Coast so getting up early to trade day after day, while going to bed most nights too late, well.. Let's just say I can identify with being tired. lol.. I can see the divergence you speak of. What I have learned with this sort of approach though is that it is one thing to identify diverging indicators after the fact, when you can easily see how the price action reacted (past tense). It's entirely a different matter to live on the right edge of the chart, in real life market action and then try to identify divergence and make accurate trade decisions based on what is currently forming -- or seemingly so, but not really. It requires a lot of guessing and discretion. "Is this divergence finished? Is it just beginning? When do I decide that it is valid and how then do I base my entry?" I imagine you probably do have rules to follow. I am content with my 67% ongoing win rate and I suspect it's better than most traders can achieve over hundreds if not thousands of trades. It's based on price action and not lagging indicators. I do use indicators but not to base my trade decisions on. I use them to confirm my decision and to help calculate the size of my trades. And while I would always want to find ways to improve my results, I would have to remain respectably skeptical, but with an open mind, as I said. If you find a signal service that would try your idea, I would be interested in kicking the tires and taking it for a test drive. I am certainly willing and wanting to learn something new. I apologize if I got off subject as you were seeking to find a signal service. But you sparked an interesting train of thought and I wanted to respond in kind. Cheers..
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Charles Lindsay wrote a very interesting book in the 70's I believe, call The Trident Trade Strategy or something like that, if I remember correctly. He talked about a concept called 'ringing.' He kept a log of the daily OHLC and would put a paranthesis around any price that made a pique or valley. He developed some simple math equations that he would plug those 'ringed' price values into and came up with a very effective trade strategy. To this day, I utilize the concepts of his ideas when I look at my charts. Charts, being the operative word here, lol.. But he showed a way to trade without charts and without tape reading.
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Teamtrader, do you consider a 70% win rate 'reasonably successful?' I personally believe that a win rate over 65% should be considered 'very successful." I think it is hard to maintain a win rate like that over time and anybody achieving that level of success is doing something extremely right. Are you suggesting that your indicator would have a 95% success rate? Please forgive me if I misunderstood your comment but you have piqued my interest and I must say, that I am respectfully skeptical but will keep an open mind. Here's a question that I once was confronted with. It's the story of two trade systems. One made 9 winning trades at $222.22 each and had only one loser, but it was a $1000 loss. The system won 90% and made $1000 in profit. But what if you got two or three of those big $1000 losses in a row? The other system had a big $2000 winner, but also 9 losing trades at $111.11 each. The system only won 10% of its trades but ended equally profitable with $1000. Isn't it wise to let your profits run and to cut your losses fast? What system is better? What about a system in the middle, that won 5 $400 trades but lost 5 $200 trades? Same $1000 profit result with a 50% win rate. It would seem by your comment that if a 70% win rate is reasonably successful, then this 50% win rate must really suck, no? Win rates are just one part of the puzzle. I remain respectfully skeptical. What good is a 95% win rate if 5% of the trades could wipe you out? Wins and losses come at a random clip, afterall and losses will cluster up. Guaranteed! I'm not suggesting your system does that, but I am merely trying to say that I have heard these claims many times and have yet to see one work. Please show me.
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Please Share Your #1 Trading Rule You Adhere to with Discipline
Tiobingo replied to rxs0005's topic in General Trading
Don't confuse your personal needs with the needs of your trading. "He who learns to walk away, lives to trade another day." I think it is important to have clear stopping rules. For me, I want to take what the market will give me as opposed to trying to impose my personal needs on my trade decisions. Somedays it will be less, others it will be more. I can accept a losing session if my rules tell me it's time to quit. -
I thought that the day started out a bit scary, with some long whip saw style bars on the charts that I like to trade. Oddly and surprisingly enough, all my trading ended up quite excellent. I had strong winners on the Russell emini, the NQ, and the EURJPY cross. It reinforced for me, yet again, to never try to predict how the markets will trade. My trade system seems to always know best.
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The market is infinitely changing that's for sure. I have a handful of robust systems I rely on that are dynamic and take into account the ever changing markets. They have served me well now for several years and continue to work for me. I'm the kind of trader who will just stay with what's working until it isn't. But so far, it keeps working and I'll keep trading the way I do. My two favorite trade books are two obvious ones; Reminiscenses of a Stock Opererator and Trading in the Zone.
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Crude is certainly an excellent market. I am hoping one day we'll be trading in a cleaner type of energy source and that crude will ultimately dry up. lol... For now though, I'm with you on crude. Great market to trade nearly every day.
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The correlation between markets has always been a fascinating subject to me. John Murphy wrote a great book on the subject. The thing I would add to this conversation is that like anything else in the markets, correlation falls into the 'clue' department. You can gain good insight but I think you also need to always remain skeptical. If I am trading an emini like the Russell or Nasdaq, I'll also watch the Dow and ES (all 4). One of the 4 tends to lead on a lot of good moves. But the NQ (nasdaq) might lead one day while the Dow might lead on another. I saw the Dow, ES and NQ breaking out to the upside and I was in a Russell trade and the Russell just couldn't get it going, or so it seemed. But then, right at the point of frustration, it finally burst upward and achieved my trade objective. If you look at a 5 minute chart or 233 tick chart or whatever on one, it won't necessarily correlate with the same timeframe in another. I have won on a long Dow emini while also winning on a short Nasdaq at the same time, for example.
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Trading Firms Put Their Money on Poker Experts
Tiobingo replied to macdfx's topic in General Trading
I love to play poker with my buddies every week or so. I use what I have learned as a trader to help me win at poker, not necessarily the other way around. I am not a pro poker player nor have any illusions of grandeur. But I typically win most of the time. My trading discipline has helped with my poker play. Getting away from a hand is similar to bailing out of a losing position, for example. Pot odds, r to r, and some abstract stuff definitely cross over between both worlds, imo. -
I found this post very useful too. Thank you. One thing that I thought of when reading this post was the idea that it takes 10,000 hours of hard work to become a real professional at something. That's about 1250 full 8 hour days, or 250 weeks working full time 5 days per week, about 5 years with a few timely breaks here and there.
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This was very useful, thank you. Do you know if this change affected other markets? How about the Dow, Nasdaq or Russell eminis?
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Hey TJ, I was in your trade room today. I just discovered your room and thought I'd take you up on yur free service. It was great, thanks.. I learned a lot already and can see how important it is to be disciplined. You mentioned UTA a couple times and then I found your furom here on TL. I'm new to this actually so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but what exactly is UTA? You mentioned it but didn't show it in your chat room. By the way, I know you warned against taking live trades without some practice and learning how you call trades, but I decided to roll the dice and go with your calls. Excellent!! You won 4 out of 5 currency future trades and they were very easy to follow. Also, the other traders in the room were very nice and helpful. You've got a great thing going and I hope you do it for a long time to come. Thanks again. I will most definitely be subscribing after my free two weeks.
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Hi Guys.. I'm new to TL and just found your thread. Are there any good Market Profile trade rooms that you know of? I found a live trade room that I really like but it's not MP. The trader that hosts the room, TJ, is real good though. He really knows his stuff. Anyway, I would like to learn more about MP if there was a good live room to join but I don't know of any. So far though, the room I discovered and am currently in is proving to be great and I may just wind up staying with it. Wasn't boring, that's for sure! Just thought I'd share..