onesmith

What does your taking time to draw attention to that link return for you? How does it benefit you? On an objective scale I'm not aware of an ojective value other than if you choose introspection based upon my questioning what you're attracting to yourself. Thanks for your post. I've been bored by the direction those topics on randomness took as much as anyone but they created my obsession with non randomness. I'm more concerned about people finding this interesting than boring.

Risk/Reward is important but discernible risk/reward removes your entry from the random category. The footprint of your having taken the time to learn to calculate r/r forms part of the non randomness that's the essence of why markets are tradable. This isn't academic. Brownian drift of markets tends toward deterministic models dissimilar to random models. Not all buyers and sellers act with the same (random) level of disregard for stucture. Winners and losers both leave footprints. Order and structure that's non-random and discernable. From that point of view studying THE STRUCTURE OF NON RANDOMNESS cuts to the essence of what it takes to make money. I'm not interested in swaying opinions or convincing anyone of anything. I prefer keeping my beliefs and opinions to myself. I'm interested in hearing everyone elses thoughts and learning something here. Please use this exception to my more normal not sharing as an opportunity to throw your best at me and convince me what matters in your world is the really important thing I should be thinking about. Particularly within the realm of the existence or non existence of the non random structure I am claiming is the basis and driving force behind all markets.

From the point of view of differentiating real data from synthetically created random data the utility is limited to what I learn about real data. Within the realm of just the real data it is worthwhile distinguishing between random and non-random. For instance up is not always up. Just because direction appears obvious does not make it the true direction. I have observed losers buying dips and winners capitalizing on that. Correlating the actions of winners to anything that repeats is the essence of trading. Along with understanding the basis (losers leaving non-random footprints) or random lack of a basis for moves that fail.

I suspect there's a lot of info to be gleaned from what appears as randomness. I'm particularly interested in randomness from the point of view of determing when and how it might deliberately or randomly conceal otherwise non-random aspects of the data. My focus is the non-random aspects and integrating the effects of randomness such as this afternoons Boston Marathon incident interupting an otherwise logical buying opportunity.

Other than the players spoofing orders to hide what might otherwise be viable info there shouldn't be many random orders in the queue. Is the queue a viable source of the non random footprint winning and losing traders leave in the market? I'm curious about that study. What characteristics of the real data enabled determining it wasn't random?

TA is Technical Analysis of various aspects of price. It's based on the logic that price contains more info than can be discerned from reading the news or studying numbers other than price. For instance record increases in sales and net profit are sometimes interpreted as a good time to sell because all the good news has already occurred. Price is forward looking in that sense and traders will often counter-intuitively sell immediately upon the release of good news. Of course there are also times traders will buy good news in the hope more good news follows or everyone hasn't already seen the news. TA avoids getting bogged down in this quagmire by adopting the belief that whatever traders decide it's immediately reflected in the current price. Falgs is a typo where Mr_black intended to say Flags. Flags are a pattern that price sometimes forms on a price chart, similar to how the Double Tops and other things he mentions are chart patterns. He insists TA is crap and specifically these chart patterns ....are random and do not contain a reasonable probability of predicting whether to expect up or down price movement. Mr_black is saying winning traders base their decisions to buy or sell on something logical that we should be able to discern but he doesn't give much info about what that is other than implying it's non-random. I'm not discounting the possibility he's using a form of TA that relies on Technical Analysis of price because it's common for people to separate TA into it's various different categories of price analysis and then mistakenly refer to their favorite flavor of TA by the name of the specific category it is in. While simultaneously saying TA is crap. Hopefully Mr_black will see my note and clarify what he means.

Have a look at the IM in CANSLIM. CAN SLIM - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I have heard that randomly created synthetic data is able to mimic many features of market data and even be indistinguishable (from real market data). Assuming everyone contributes toward creating the non random structure within the real data ......... What is the markets structure? What is the non randomness that distinguishes real data from random data.

If ES volatility is at or slighlty below avgV and NQ v is above nq avgV then which one do you buy? Do you ever buy less than account size? If you intend to go all in and use your entire buying power everytime you take a postion then why is position size part of the equation?

R=HH-LL; // [avgTradeLen] avgR=avg(R,totaltrades); buyingPwr=acctSize/c; size=bPwr * (avgR / [F*R] ); // square brackets = bug or something you intended that I didn't understand You're probably sorting the net profit column of the optimization report. Export to excel, add a column that measures deviation of returns, sort that column, that's the optimal f that will satisfy your smoothing requirements, while forsaking net, unless your fitness function strikes a balance between net and smoothing. Besides optimal F, ... R is the only other moving part. I was confident i had thought this through when I wrote the paragraph below here but after thinking for too long I'm unable to determine if increasing R increases trade size. If it does then it's backwards. Substituting hard numbers in place of the variablies on line 4 is too much for me at the moment but that should be easy to resolve. If R is wired wrong it will need to be fixed before F will work. If R is wired correctly then you will still need the custom excel function to optimize F. As R increases it simultaneously increases trade size. R normalizes individual trades to a variable scale that causes fluctation in trade net and Equity Curve. Fixed size normally returns a smoother EC than variable size. Varying size is normally associated with increasing gain. Varying size can be used to smooth an ec but if you use range as the input it needs to work backwards from the way it's written. When anticipated range increases forgo the opportunity for increasing profit. Decreasing size will maintain the fixed net profit for that trade where the net per contract is increased for that trade.

I get that. ......pre-narrowing the search to a few near optimal time frames is beneficial. Some time frames nearly always have lots of noise and little if any signal. Logically it makes sense to toss out the time frames that are not likely to give signals. ....but if you only try things everyone tries you will never be pleasantly surprised because you never do anything different than anyone has already done. It can't work the way everyone thinks it should. We are not the only ones smart enough to be efficient, to follow the scientific method, to stick to what's sensible or whatever label you prefer for doing what everyone who is educated knows is the rational thing to do. For the specific case ...which time frames should be excluded. The absence of any time frame is a mistake. Counter intuitive for the win everytime. That timeframe that only gives one signal over some rediculous amount of time like an entire lifetime, is the signal that's strong enough to model strats (using the significantly small enough sample size of one.) that will work on every timeframe and every symbol. var: sensible(efficient), inefficient(invertsensible);

There is a lot of information in those time frames. It's going to be tough seeing it until you change that belief.

randini, Your posts are extremely helpful. Thanks. I hope my thanks encourages you. The motives and aspirations of other members isn't always clear even after studying them but suffice it to say they are going to do what they do regardless of what you do because that's the path they are on. It shouldn't have any affect on you. Carry on. I want to hear more of your ideas. It's a refreshing change from the norm.

Right click on a blank area in a chart and select View Data Window. Then right click in the Data Window and select Save. Specify .CSV for the filename extension (not txt) and it will export all the values that are plotted and automatically include column headings. When exporting from within code you should also use csv rather than txt for the filetype. And FileAppend (instead of print) because it accepts variable filenames.

Price is a derivative of, ....or determined by the analysis of !! .... IT'S PAST CONTENT !!! This constant analysis and revaluation never stops! It is there 24/7 ! :-)

LaReindeer, I googled OTA REVIEWS like greedygekko suggested. Save your money. Work on improving your ability to spot vender / poser / snake oil. Ripoff Report | Online Trading Academy | Complaint Review: 695810

yes no To make this easier to debug, remove the comment (in the sender) that says "calculate moving average". If you have something difficult you feel needs a comment then put the comment after it, on the same line as it refers to so it only takes up one line. Repeat this process of reducing the complexity until there's a minimum number of lines of code you don't understand. Then study those things. I assure you this process will enable you to debug anything. And indeed it's necessary to achieve this proficiency because for instance in this case you think you're looking for a specific solution but you're going to want to solve other things after you have your that solution. If you just want the solution to what you've asked then ....you can access the most recent daily avg on a 5 minute intraday chart by replacing ADE.BarID (only in the receiver) with ADE.BarID+1; As you begin to understand the nuances and their implications you will want something that also works on historical bars so it can be backtested. Change the reference to ADE.BarID back to how it was. Then in the sender, define mySum=summation(c,49); Add a logic gate (in the receiver) branching to separate formulas for avg depending on whether time corresponds to last 5 minute bar of the day. ADE.BarID is equal to d+t/10000. Only the last 5m bar of the session (at end of day) corresponds to the same ADE.BarID as the *daily* charts ADE.BarID. //sender var: mySum(0); mySum=summation(c,49); // receiver var: eod(1515); if t=eod then avg=MA else avg=(mySum+c)/50; plot1(avg,"avg"); // not MA

If you write out each line in long hand style rather than trying to do this in a loop then you will have a greater chance of finding your mistake. At the moment it looks like you're talking about multiplying by close[n+1] but your code is multiplying by close[counter-1]. One is using addition and the other uses subtraction.

Time set to cme exchange. You should probably edit 830 and 930 (to 930 and 1030 for your purposes). I'm aware you're using this on a 2m interval but you should stick with the time specified (plus or minus n hours rather than something like 0932). var: myH(0), myL(0); if t>830 and t<=930 then begin if t[1]<=830 or t[1]>930 then begin myH=H; myL=L; end else begin myH=maxlist(myH,H); myL=minlist(myL,L); end; end; plot1(myH,"myH",green,black); plot2(myL,"myL",red,black); if c>myH then plot3(1,"orb",black,green) else if c<myL then plot3(-1,"orb",black,red) else plot3(0,"orb",black,white);

var: id(0), myH(0); once begin id=text_new(d,t,H,"myH"); text_setstyle(id,2,2); end; myH=highY(0); if myH<>myH[1] then begin if year(d)<>year(d[1]) then begin id=text_new(d,t,H,"myH"); text_setstyle(id,2,2); end else text_setlocation(id,d,t,H); end;

I second your recommendation to study what Michal Harris of Price Action Lab's has disclosed. Everyone (serious) like all of you posting to this thread, should understand the advantages and disadvantes of artificial intelligence. Some of you should specialize in it and take it beyond where it is, to something that can benefit us as a species.

You're using code other than the code you posted. It's easier to give you the correct answer if you post the code returing the positive infinity error, along with the symbol, bar interval, date and time of a specific case that produces that error. Calibrate your symbol to exchange time or accept the resulting confusion. That's not so important when debugging simple problems but everyone capable of helping you with complex bugs will expect it and it's something worthwhile striving to get right from the get go.

steve46, do you use still use the blue trendlines and blue zones you drew on this chart?

That works. Thanks.

First link returns the correct page except for the area where it should be displaying the latest posts list. Within that area it says "You have no permissions to view this page". The second link to todays posts works correctly. This started after clicking an icon that said "disable top stats" which was probably associated with the "latest posts" list displayed near the bottom of http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/ That icon to "disable top stats" caused a screen refresh which included a message at the top of the page that only appeared for 1 second before disappearing. It said To re-enable top stats you will need to .. but there wasn't enough time to read it and that's why I'm speculating it was a hastily written kludge that said "contact admin". The icon to disable top stats is no longer present on my screen but you should be able to find it. It might have been a pulldown menu option within that list of lastest posts near the "bottom" of that page. It's not a cookie because I deleted all of those. I'm using Internet Explorer 9 with the latest updates applied.