Attila

For a good cause: 7/30 - Tails

Candlestick patterns along with all other reversal setups/indicators are suddenly very effective when located around relevant price areas.. In a vacuum, they are hit and miss.

Noekin... wow more subjectivity to drawing them!.. I am starting to think on a long-term basis like my chart those trendlines are more dangerous than useful as the fundamental events that drive prices cause ebbs and flows I doubt care to respect a trendline.. Now between events (dailies, 4 Hr charts) trendlines a lot more useful.. Price levels on the other hand many magnitudes as useful..

The problem I have is the "need to know" and Trendlines frequently take me in to trades getting in front of momentum. Needing to know leads to predictions. I shorted earlier today AS price reached the trendline so a really tough trade as I did not even remember ti wait for failure.. Some say hard trades are good ones but I needlessly make them hard a lot. Trendlines should be used to get into trades (faded when they contain price) following the trend and not much else.. Breaks and retouches are very hard to play for me.. About 20pips green in the trade now..

Sooooo... What next???

Ran into this recently.. Lots of useful articles.. too many actually but one really stood out for me... "The Three Vices Of Trading" Brett Steenbarger Articles on Trading Psychology and Trading Techniques

I have come to the realization I am simply not ready to trade, definitely not in my current mental state. I thought I was but Monday showed I still lack self control. The amount of anxiety I feel when in positions much worse than before. Various factors likely responsible, possibly including trading in public. My recent financial debacle also has biased me mentally against the market's current level. Turning a small amount into a fortune I still believe quite possible but the paradox is the smaller the amount you start with, the more important EVERYTHING lines up well. Including trader skill and a sufficient fall back savings. Most importantly there cannot be intense anxiety while trading. I've tried everything but it won't go away. This one issue completely removes any chance of consistent disciplined execution and one I would rather not continue to try to fix in public.

Traded like something I cannot say here on Monday.. Lost an embarrassing amount.. Then last night... Odds were excellent this declining TL would be broken upwards.. Instead of taking ONE trade and placing a stop beneath the dive low of 1175 I spent $350 in trades between 1177 and 1179. My 1.75 stop can only survive a dip buy but definitely not breakout trades.. Death by a thousand cuts or Nuclear? I wonder. ES at 1206 as I type.. really hurts as I was stalking this trade for days (but wasn't sitting on my hands waiting and saving my stop money) Very bothered mentally.

Yes Thales, borderline stupid.. but it worked for a while though not long enough to reach escape velocity. ES Symmetrical building. shouldn't be long for resolution and 20 point move. Key is fading the opposing trendline BEFORE the ultimate break. Hopefully it doesn't peter out to nothingness.

Expecting a better outcome this time as I have a more settled mind than last time, when I was battling banks to save the house (lost it anyway), looking for work, and a myriad other evils. To say that was a pressured time is an understatement. No race goals now and could have started a new Thread but have chosen not to. Not bothered one bit if any others contribute in any way. I have switched mostly to ES from NQ as ES appears to be less crazy being more liquid AND not as focused as NQ. Ultimately a better barometer of the whole market. At this point the risk is unhealthily high for the account but I will manage until 5k, where the risk reaches my target. Week Start $1934 Week End $2682 9 trades for the week, no doubt helped by Thanksgiving. The 1.3717 Euro short and stop out the pain for the week... I knew it would likely reverse in that area (we all did) but I did not wait for the turn.. oh well. Got the loss back and some on the 1.33 bounce trade. Goal to under-trade, relatively speaking, with a slow account build.

Yes... However I have begun trading again this week and will post weekly updates beginning this Saturday.

Chris, So now you want to hold till after elections!!?? At the very least don't let it below 15.7. It is currently in a range that could break either way and you really should get out of most/all the position during indecision. You can get back in once the stalemate is resolved. Trade for fundamental and Technical reasons, not events. To carry a positions that apparently means a lot to you into earnings is not smart. Remember while you are in GE there are other opportunities you are wasting. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO GET THE MONEY BACK FROM GE... you are a prisoner only in your mind.

Thoughts on USD Weekly?

I simply refused to do what I should do.. After watching all those points go by I am wondering when the system trade is coming, so I take bad trades.. It finally comes, and sure enough IT has missed nothing.. True to form another winning trade, eerily effective. Why I went long just after the short signal?? I just don't understand why I can't follow it. Will continue to follow it's results and perhaps I will gain confidence with more data. This has been quite humbling.. Simulator here I come until I can be successful there won't be trading cash.. ekshay.. it's all yours for now.. it's a race of 1 again..

Crystallizes why systems so HARD to follow.. sitting and waiting for signal.. "should" be in the 85 area.. and it may not happen..

Huge temptation to short 1990 right now..

Statement for 09/22......

Statement for 09/20 and Today's Journal.. Managed to take a signal (there were only 2 within the periods I trade)!! Needless to say it was a short.. Today REALLY shows clear system trades. Very simple.. a useful (long..) Trendline is broken then trade the first reversal back to the Moving average.. Missed the Fed-stivities but that's fine.. I think NQ controls the Market on the long side so we'll see what that 2000 touch turns out to mean.. All depends on AAPL though.

As we all know, in order for real change in results to occur, real change in process must. There is a pretty good trader on ET (Lescor) that avoids monitoring his platforms to avoid meddling and possibly ruining trades. So accepting our flaws, automating as much as possible and having a life is the ticket as you have rightly inferred.. again.

When I was little I used to watch the Kung-Fu series with David Carradine and I remember Grasshopper having to close his eyes to make him see. With my eyes open and the markets going up I am hopeless. Meanwhile the system rakes it in because it cannot think or see. I have tried to go blind by going to one timeframe and audible signals only... but the pull to "see" more is so strong, and once I go there, non-system trades show up. Must add some more... A good bit of the time the system seems so WRONG but in 15 signals since last week there have been TWO clear losses.. what more could a trader ask for? Problem is it skips some trades that work out and sometimes I front-run it and get rewarded..

ekshay.. was just pulling your leg..! Trust me I know the pitfalls of flying too close to the sun!... One key element though as you can see from my week is not to make scalps so small a routine losing day engulfs a week of scalps. Sometime a scalp has an illusion of safety. There are days when the markets are clearly trending and offer a bit more than a scalp and more can be taken... THE pitfall this can lead to is forgetting the long-term plan to drop back to taking only what is on offer when the grind returns. And very smart to lay low when your undivided attention is not possible. That said long-term planning VERY valuable as it calms the trader which reinforces selectivity... All IMIO of course! Statement for 09/17.. shoo second page, shoo!

Thanks.. that was for 09/16.. By the way at this rate (about $60 daily) it will take 45 years to get to a mil, so get on with it! ( are those feathers I see?).. BIG numbers...

Statement for 09/17..

Kiwi, That's another book I have but will read someday..:helloooo:

Today's Journal... Took ONE system trade.. Just missed my take 7 target (need to adjust this somehow daily) busy most of the day but returned in plenty time to see and ignore the signal of the day... Somehow managed to overlook the very long Yellow TL stretching to yesterday get broken. Don't know where Thales got it but "It's a bull market you know". Seems like any number of green days in a row is possible..