daVinciLite

Hello, Thanks for the book and video link. I enjoyed the video. It is kind of like “trading therapy,” as Nassim puts it. But once the video is over it’s back to the real world. I saw his video on “Volume Strips” in 2011. It was and still is great therapy. It may be even more entertaining and therapeutic than that cab drive Nassim talks about in “Black Swan” because of Steidlmayer’s many twists and turns, or can I say mental gymnastics, that he specializes in. I’ll definitely will read the book since it is right down my ally and will need it in the years to come. I was mistaken in my use of “concave” as it relates to the profile. I assumed you were describing the shape of the profile. Yes, “concave” in the Antifragle context means the more volatility or harm a system has the more it is hurt. Where as an Antifragle system is “convex” thereby getting more benefit from that same volatility or harm. Are you saying that “Trading with Market Statistics” may be concave because it uses statistics? Here are some Nassim links you may enjoy: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33kET2YPWls]04 10 2012Nassim Taleb - YouTube[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QiiFSOrJhQ]Nassim Taleb Speaks to a Clueless Congress (Part 2 of 2) - YouTube[/ame] After Words with Nassim Taleb - C-SPAN Video Library Good Luck, dVL

Hello, Interesting post since I just finished rereading Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” and boy can I be fooled by randomness. As he sums up in the end of that book’s second edition: “We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract.” Well the correct use of Market Profile is about as abstract as they come. So it is no surprise it is misunderstood. The strength of the Profile allows one to differentiate the “concave” from the excess or as Nassim would say: the fat tails. So you can tell if the market in “concave” or in excess (fat tail). The profile is nothing more than flattened out 30-minute bars. But Steidlmayer was very creative in what he did. Too bad he has problems applying his own tool. I guess he scorns the abstract just like so many academics. I went through the “Trading with Market Statistics” threads a year ago. It taught me to pay more attention to the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and VPOC (Volume Point of Control), but I could not find an edge with it that was better than my current method. The VWAP and VPOC are very important prices though. Intra day market activity definitely takes them into account. Good luck, dVL

I was talking about two things: The Sierra Chart number bars and IQ Feed data. The SC number bars are now 100% accurate and DTN IQ still has a very good reputation. Been using them for over two years now with no problems. Sierra Chart and DTN IQ feed: a match made in heaven. I combine the IQ Feed data and my trading account all in one chart so I can have good data and place orders on the same chart. Good Luck, dVL

'Did he leave money on the table -- he does care about how he "feels".' did you mean to say 'he does NOT care about how he "feels"?' The re-constructed belief (based on a lot of emotional labor) was the the market does care and has no intent in any direction toward me. Did you mean to say 'the market does NOT care'? Thx, enjoying your posts.

Best article I have found that explains why our current “herd” is being lead to a slaughter. Why Our Recession Call Stands | News | News and Events | ECRI dVL

Here is an interesting video of someone who is following simple logic on Greece: Greece `Highly Likely' to Leave Euro - Video - Bloomberg dVL

The Euro was never workable in the first place. It came form the minds of elitist who know nothing of the real world. As long as the leaders in Europe can keep hope alive, the market place will keep hope for the future of the euro – it’s just too painful to face the truth. But sooner than later the Euro as we know it will come to an end. At a minimum the PIGS will be thrown out. Then we can go along our merry way once the world takes its medicine. This audio link should help you understand the situation: Cowen on the European Crisis | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty dVL

I think the CFTC will be calling on him to do some DNA work. They may take it to the 12th demension as they create their own Avatar. dVL

I’ll bet any amount of money the Occupy Wall Street crowd (mob) will never even hear the name Corzine. After all Wall Street is all a greedy gang of Republicans, right? If you hear his name mentioned from any of their gatherings (riots) post it here. It’s just not going to happen. dVL

You bet I do. He can take all his income as salary and pay the higher rate but he doesn't because he is a hypocrite. Anything can be rationalized (rational lies) but he is still a hypocrite. Regards, dVL

Another hypocrite ... Warren Buffet. He may owe as much as one billion in back taxes: Warren Buffet May Owe A Billion Dollars In Back Taxes - HUMAN EVENTS dVL

Very interesting question Tams. I am looking forward to reading someone’s answer. I have some ideas but I'll keep my mouth closed for now. Regards, dVL

I understand your point and I agree in principle, but if there are more people taking from a society then giving, that democracy will cease to exist in the near future. It will turn into some sort of totalitarian state where others are forced to “give” what they have. Cuba has elections and they have a 99% turn out rate, but of course there is only one candidate. Why are you so sure all wealthy people pay taxes? Do the wealthy in Greece pay their share? I am not an expert, but from what I hear the answer is NO. The multinational GE paid very little US income tax last year. You are missing the whole point of the question. It is not about the wealthy or poor telling anyone how to live. It is about fairness and the right for the “rich,” not so rich and even the poor to earn a living in freedom. Again, not all taxes are paid by the wealthy. From what I see people who live on social assistance for a substantial length of time loose their dignity. With there dignity gone, they have a hard time contributing anything. Regards, dVL

What does a collage degree, having blue eyes or living in NYC have to do with anything? There are plenty of people with those qualifications that pay NO federal income tax. Amazing how people can bring race and education into every political idea. People of a certain race are NOT smarter and people of a certain education are NOT the “smartest in the room.” In many cases educated people can be a lot dumber then usual. If I hire someone for a job, don’t I get to tell them what to do? We hire politicians for a job. Maybe only the people who pay the bills should have to right to choose who gets elected. At one time you had to own property to vote in the US. Of course this will never happen nor do I want it to, but it is still a curious question. Another question: Can a socialist ever get elected if the people paying the bills were the ones making the voting decisions? Another question: Why do so many US and English citizens get away with paying absolutely no federal income tax? Regards, dVL

With no “skin” in the game, should someone who pays no federal income tax be allowed to vote? After all, if current trends persist, how many taxpayers will be left to pay down the record national debt? A non-taxpayer can vote for redistribution with little perceived loss on their end (notice I say perceived). What do you think? dVL

The best strategy is market understanding and the ability to put price in context of the current trading bracket, both long term and short term, along with reading the order flow. The ability to think in probabilities and possible scenarios is something that is completely unnatural - especially for technical people like us. So learning that is a gradual process. I am a discretionary trader first and foremost. But I can't stop myself from creating a mechanical system that builds on my discretionary tools because I am still a programmer at heart. I do have some free stuff for Sierra Chart users that I posted in the SC message board under (Warrior Trader). Regards, dVL

Sounds like you are were I was two years ago. I was a professional programmer (still am I guess). You are in for a wonderful and fulfilling ride..LOL. If protect your capital while you learn you should come out ahead. I don’t post much anywhere because I didn’t learn much from message boards. I basically watched as many order flow/market profile webinars that I could get my hands on, with membership to a cumulative delta chat room for 6 months. I didn’t get into the programming until late last year. Some of my journey may help. The first programming task I did was to track responsive activity – contracts that HELD the bid or offer. Then with that under my belt I started tracking initiative activity. Now I am going to track the buy and selling spikes. This is after I could see things manually. Not many people on here like the footprint chart, but it is an advanced form of tape reading IMO. Good Luck, Looks like you are willing to do the work necessary to be successful. dVL

OEC is not TT or CQG but it gets the job done. I use the money I save to buy Sierra Chart/IQ Feed and use OEC to execute. There were problems in 2009, but things have been pretty stable for me since then. dVL PS: I also have a good relationship with my IB that predates OEC. You will probably get better customer service if you go through an IB.

You shouldn’t. Unless you let your broker make your trades for you, which is what the complaint is about. Is OEC responsible for people who mindlessly follow some else’s advice and then complain that the broker (IB - not OCE) just wanted their commissions? Sheep get lead to the slaughter. dVL

FYI, The NFA complaint has absolutely nothing to do with OEC's technology. The NFA had problems with one of their introductory brokers. dVL

Then only difference between an algo and a manual order is speed. An order is an order and it shows up just the same. Although a large percentage of trades are from algo’s, the goals of the prospective parties can be completely different. Some are taking ticks out of the market while others are accumulating long-term positions. Things change but they stay the same. Also, an algo does not have intuition. Quant firms go belly up all the time, just like everyone else. Hope it helps, dVL

Dalton does not believe in going into too much detail when it comes to value areas or volume point of controls. I agree with him – trading is not a science. I get into the detail when reading the footprint chart. I had a lot of screen time before Field of Visions came out, so I have not bought it yet. If someone has been reading tape of many years, I can understand why they can’t give it up. But if you are new, go with the new technology – footprint charts. Regards, dVL

Do a search for "Order Fow Advice." I list some MP sources there. Jim Dalton's site and books have helped a LOT. I also take screen shots and document my observations on a daily basis so I can review things later. Been doing that for 2 years now. It really gets things into the subconscious. Stay tuned for a daily ES market profile update that I will put out before the 9:30 open from time to time. You can get consistency but I'm not sure about the certainty. dVL

I want to create a system that goes beyond mechanical rules. It should take into account that there was an outside day yesterday (ES) and the odds of downside continuation were very good today. So the variables it uses changes from day to day. Very difficult, but it can be done with some form of artificial intelligence. dVL "That sounds like over educated and under intelligent" John Gotti NY Mafia

Do you think the trend will continue up? How is price reacting to the POC? How has the market traded the few days or weeks leading to the current day? Where are you in the trading channel? Is the POC at a good trade location? The first level of trading is mechanical. The second level is placing all the relevant market activity in context. Only then will you be consistently profitable. Most people never get to the next level. Good luck, dVL