SIUYA

:2c:Good question and its an often ignored and this is one of those that has no right or wrong answer. You will just need to work out what makes sense with your method, form a valid way of measuring the SR and the way to build your continuous contract and then the key is to remain consistent to it. If you are day trading, you can almost ignore any continuous contract and just focus on the contract that is being traded. If swing trading /longer term trading then you have more issues. Especially around the contract expiry. Beaware that there is a difference between a continuous contract and a back adjusted continuous contract. (there are plenty of articles around and a few threads here with the same info on it) I would not necessarily back adjust the contract if short term trading and looking for SR, as I feel this is more relevant for long term back testing and properly taking into account when the rolls occur and adjusting for the backwardation or contango. Rather I would just use a continuous contract. Be aware of the gaps near expiry and work on your rules for SR......most data providers will supply these.

Impossible to answer, but there are no stupid questions when it comes to trading as it can be done in a multiple of manners/styles/methods/timeframes, but as you asked for probability...... Given the often thrown around number of 95% of traders closing their accounts, I would say you have a 5% chance of succeeding. Given this and you need to replace some current income stream, a lot would then depend on how much you need to replace and how much you have to trade with..... so given simple probability from my days in formal education was when faced with "this" and "this" occurring you needed to multiply.... Probability of succeeding * probability of making enough money = Slim However, there is no substitute for a good education, take your time, and the rewards for success are great, either and or both from a monetary point of view, and a lifestyle point of view (they can be potentially devastating from an emotional point of view). It can be done - just dont believe the hype of instant riches etc. (although this is also not impossible) Also ask yourself...... if I dont try this, will I regret it in twenty years? What is the cost of any three year University course? Why not try and get into the trading area in the bank you are working at and train while getting paid? Do I really want to trade, or do I just not want to do my high stress job?

just s some feedback..... I have downloaded sierra chart - so far i love it. The display was a little tough to follow as there are a lot of menus and thats just a matter of getting used to it. This would normally turn me off as normally if i dont like the vibe, I am unlikely to persist, but in this case it seems to have enough flexibilty to suit me, and the Kiwi inspired autohotkeys make it even more flexible. (thanks.) On a quick look it looks great. I love the ideas of trading from the excel type spreadsheet without needing to learn C++ if you dont need to. the charts look fine and seems straightforward and also the forum seems to have plenty of info on it. Given it can feed into different brokers and also pick up different feeds it is definitely something I will persist with. plus while not a major factor - the price is good.

yes for some people.....no for others.

I guess I lumped faith, trust, intuition all the the same boat, and just went on what he wrote in the book. Given your reason for wanting to read the book, then yes read it....as for me that was the crux of the book. Re Covels book. I was actually alerted to the book, his website etc by the spat and it helped alert me to a more formal version of trend following, which to be honest, while at the time we were trading in a similar manner, we were not systemised, we were using long volatility options (Taleb style). So for me the book was helpful. However it really was more a cut and paste of everyones ideas using quotes and ante dotes, but not rules etc, a summary if you like. Again it is a book I rarely refer back to, unlike something like the market wizards books. Interestingly enough over the last few years for various reasons I have tried to be more formalised, systemised and less intuitive. (Plus we are using less options). For me its more scaleable, less stressful, but also less profitable....everything is a tradeoff! (OK, while related, I guess this is not a book review thread.)

Not a stretch at all. He knew he was given a set of rules by some successful traders and that he was smart enough/intuitive enough to know that it was in his own best interests to follow those rules. A direct quote.... "My intuition told me that the most important factors would be how well we displayed the spirit of our training, took advantage of the opportunities that arose, managed our risks and handled the trading on an emotional level. Most of the the other Turtles thought our goal was to make as much money as possible".... "My instincts told me otherwise. If a trade came that met our criteria, I took it, no matter how risky it seemed. I was concerned with performing well on my own terms, not making money per se. My intuition paid off"

he actually states in the book that a lot of his early success was actually due to his correct intuition at the time - that intuition at the time told him to follow the rules as he was given them.

Re the Curtis Faith book..... I think to better understand where he is coming from for the book, it helps to understand his history. It is not as Forrsetang says a trading book, but more about his beliefs of the role and importance of intuition (for those with sufficient experience) in mechanical trading. (I too am a trading blox, Curtis Faith supporter and trend follower and yet have always struggled with the idea of pure mechanical trading so it resonated with me) My two cents is that the book is not worth the read as a trading book, but more as an extra to pass the time, and confirm possibly what you may already be thinking. In short its not a book I refer back to a a continual basis - and this to me is the sign of a good and educational read (wait until its a $2 paper back). On that note you are better off reading other more interesting things.....my recommendation which surprised me for its application I found to the mind and trading was Dan Gilbert - Stumbling on happiness.

As I understand it spread betting came out of the costs of actually trading the underlying - particularly in the UK where stamp duty for stocks is a killer. It has grown from there and in the UK is tax free (subject to conditions) and hence a viable option for many.... this is a very valid argument for it success. Yes - you will also have the counter party risk and the issues of widening spreads. However for the upsides of leverage, low costs and flexibility for variable position sizes and different instruments, there is definitely a good reason to trade via a spread better for some traders. It is just another speculative instrument. Now if its a scam or not will depend on the provider.

charitable giving can be a very personal subject and I have a few rules that I apply in a general sense, and dont have any favourites. I usually give to.... local charities rather than global ones. eg; bush fire brigades, volunteer organisations for the elderly. charities that actually change perceptions or improve conditions such that they 'self empower' people to help themselves. larger charities that can prove they are properly managed, and the money does not go into administration.... its sometimes scary seeing how little money gets to the actual cause I also often sponser friends if they are doing a walk or run or something when they are trying to raise money for a particular cause. I usually try and avoid charities that try and cure medical conditions just so that we can live a little longer than normal....purely personal.

a combination for me.....but I view backtesting as a way to test ideas more than to actually run a system on I have used ninja, multicharts, trading blox., and my own excel system

Hi Kiwi - I have heard good things about SC but never really used it - is the autohotkey you show in the pictures something that comes with SC or an an additional extra program that was written? I thought I might look at SC for a little project I am working on, thats related to this thread. I plan to use an automated intraday entry method via a simple script of some sort (eg; MA cross over) , and then a discretionary method for exits - so that any stops get manually adjusted either intraday on an end of day basis. The remaining positions that are open might be held for days/weeks/months. It will be linked to IB TWS. currently I am thinking MultiCharts might be best for this - except it does not have a DOM and manual trading off the chart - but Sierra charts could also be worth a look. Given you are a heavy user of SC do you have any thoughts on how easy this might be implemented via SC? thanks.

Rules of the competition! If your really wanted an equalizer - a percentage differential would be required given the differing sizes of the indexes. However - maybe this can be applied next time I have updated the various suggested ideas as well to the spreadsheet. (Edit: yuppie money I switched the SP and NDX for your numbers - makes a difference for the various % amounts, but not for the absolute - is this correct?) tl_competition.xls

As I have had some spare time, and this sort of stuff sometimes fascinates me (sad maybe ) I whacked this together quickly - so it might have a few errors. but basically if I have read this correctly, the summation of the three indexes is the simple way to determine participants levels and the overall winning result. I have attached a simple excel spreadsheet - so if there are errors let me know we can quickly fix them. In the spreadsheet all you need to do is update the current prices (yellow) and the current leader column and chart should update. the chart is also just a simple one to see the spread of people. tl_competition.xls

nice postings Forrestang.....makes for good reading of the on going thought process and shows its pretty simple straightforward repeatable stuff...... Which has got me thinking, always a dangerous thing! so as food for thought..... Do others sometimes look at certain styles/methods/habits and think.... its too easy, I must be able to improve on this and make it more complicated, or do things differently to others (the search for the holy grail????) or at least think ..... if its this easy then I should be able to capture more out of the trade and pick all the little moves, if I am selling out a long, why not short it? (overtrading, and not sticking to a simple plan and setups???) I ask as often my mind wanders into the second thought process for me, until I snap out of it and walk away.

I completely disagree. You need more than just enough trades, you need enough trades over a valid period of time that incorporates all types of market conditions. Otherwise you are merely cherry picking. (Given you have a number of asterisk in your post it seems more of a disclaimer )

I dont know where to post this, and I figured this is as good a place as any given the folks who read this thread and the nature of the thread. A friend of mine writes a blog which can be found at Trading diary of a late riser He has been trading for over twenty years, and while he has had the normal ups and downs I am pretty confident he has been profitable for about 19 of those years. At a guess he aims to return 50% plus on his money by being nimble, using a little bit of leverage, but most importantly using a lot of low risk entries. He focuses on day and swing trading Australian equities and gives a good blow by blow of what he thinks through out the day on various stocks and is pretty much real time in that he posts his actual thoughts ideas and many prices. For stock traders I think its a good spread of thoughts and maybe if you are trading Aussie stocks you might make some good money from it as I know he makes a good living from only trading. He does not sell anything, does not care to and probably will not respond to any questions but it makes for an interesting read into the insight of a experienced trader for anyone interested.

I understand, however not everything is a result of speculation as such....depending on how you define this of course. I give you kudos for what you are doing, I just feel that you need to be very clear in what is included, and ultimately it is next to impossible to tell the reasons for the trades.....but maybe this is not the point..... eg; speculators are trading in nat gas, and the hedging type market makers decide to hedge/spread in the crude market, and the heating oil market. eg; a long term holder of an equity (say a bank stock) always sells calls against their holdings every two months, and either rolls these calls or sells them against their holdings each time. the market makers generally buy these calls and to hedge in their books sell the underlying stock. eg; a client requires an average price swap over the period of a week in a particular instrument as part of a portfolio, and sometimes the averaging of portfolios - depending on the exchange reporting requirements - see these prices be executed at close to but not exactly within the market, in order to report the entire portfolio at the one time.

treat it like any study subject..... there is no substitute for making notes and summaries in your own words. Use cut and paste for any relevant charts.

This needs to be anonymous, otherwise there is a chance to game people who go early! Regardless.... My choices are to use the closing prices as at Monday 13th September as my guesses. (mainly as its my birthday and this guess is as good as any)

For me a couple of interesting things/questions have popped up in this thread, that always remind me of certain traits common to traders and habits..... 1) for a day trading site, where most traders don't hold positions over night, why even have an opinion for the long term.....seems to go against everything people talk often about. 2) even many who are bullish seem pretty pessimistic about the long term, and the reasons given seem locally and not globally focused. For centuries humans have been prophesizing doom and gloom, and yet here we are living in a time where globally people have never been better off. 3) are people trading the price action or the fundamentals? 4) with MMS compliments about people being smarter than him.... brains in this business dont mean success. 5) we cant predict the future even if we can imagine it, and even then this is more than likely to be flawed even with a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong. 6) the most expensive words in the English language - "this time its different" 7) its what we dont know that will hurt us.....the black swan event......so given the bearishness we are probably going up. 8) regardless of what our own personal political or historical views are, the market does not care.

completely random guess - could it be related to a spread of some sort, or a related option trade whereby this it the hedge or the other side of the spread. In some markets these can be reported at prices that are close to the market, but still outside the market at that time. The other side of the spread could be anything but likely to be another contract month. No dig at anyone in particular, or any style - but one of the issues I have always found with people attempting to track or understand every trade often misses the point that so many trades are merely hedges, parts of option spreads or generally unrelated to a directional view in an instrument.

the spammers getting anti spammers to add to the spam, fantastic! Sort of like buying a T-shirt with a massive slogan on it and then walking around as a billboard. Did you read about the guy who was trying to be the most spammed person in the world? I think he turned out to be pretty disappointed with the result.

I know that I cant predict the future. So I am going to move all my trailing stops up in a normal manner for both the longs and the shorts and then let the market tell me. In the meantime if pushed for an opinion....bullish, looking to short. Lucky for me, I usually dont act on these decisions.

Cory - there is nothing wrong with the intense focus of a finer time frame. So long as you remember that its a lot about sensitivity. I have attached a simple Risk reward calculator I put together - its simple straightforward and no guarantees for accuracy. But its a handy thing to be able to check out the sensitivities using a what if scenario. (vary any input that is surrounded by the box, eg; % winners, risk in ticks.) The other thing that can kill you over time is the mental attitude of the focus, and the ability to temper the desire to trade v the opportunities that are present. but you are young and eager i am old and slower....so I understand where you are coming from. SimpleRiskReturnCaluclator.xls