SIUYA

for those interested in bitcoin... for those interested in the art market.... for those interested in markets....value and manipulation for those interested in aspects of china - read the comments section. (you might have to register and log in to read.) Art as the sophisticated man?s Bitcoin | FT Alphaville

I appreciate the response, but I just disagree with you in what you think you have, and your last comment tells me all I need. Good luck and good bye.

There are so many contradictions here ....its confusing. You have 44 profitable automated strategies - but you cant use them on a computer? You need context, there are too many conflicting lines of code and by the time a computer picks it up its too late???........by the time the codes are input....ummmm??? That would mean they are not automated, they require a lot of discretion and hence you are back where you started. Having to hire people not to follow rules but to allow for context and discretion. Plus I thought previously you thought people were unable to process the information in the markets.... and hence the original post? Again confusing.... Its working, but you dont yet have an office once its setup and running by itself....then you unveil your method....WTF??:spam: Your backer --- I thought you were the backer?... You want a trainer to stay disciplined - I thought the automated strategies were easy to follow any idiot could do it.... ---- what about the other four plus overseer? Already I think you have blown most of your winning trading budget on data, computers, office, salaries, trainer, overseers. ............................ I am always happy to give the benefit of the doubt that you are not scamming anything, but the only other option I can conclude from this is that you are a dreamer. (nothing wrong with that, but dreams and trading are a dangerous mix) Not to discourage you but you might want to give this some more thought before committing money to such a venture.

You are in a catch 22.... ....you do realise this has taken you back to where you where in the original post. 1....and you are right - most pros either wont take on your system as it either does not work, does not work for them or if it does they will then reverse engineer it and do it themselves. These days if its a simple system its not hard for anyone to automate and test most things. 2...If you believe enough in the system that it works and can be followed by a monkey (or automated) then you dont need to pay a lot.....but then it can be automated. If it requires discretion and needs more than a robot to work, then you are back at point 1, or it will cause the system to not work in which case you are loosing again. Everything is a trade off.....assuming you have a profitable system that should able to be followed by anyone - then you dont have a trading mindset problem but a business model problem. (My brother is in the construction industry and often complains his employees dont think or care - i tell him he does not pay most of them enough to think and then ask him why it is he works for himself, and not for others - its a trade off) Good luck.

are you kiddin! You think we are after statistical data - leave that alone - we are after a system.....something that will take all the hard work out it and be a money making machine. if it works then we have a system that we can collectively market, sell and make plenty and show to us that you can make money being a complete idiot with totally random systems.....at least thats enough to fool some.....

I did one better for you Blue.... the first serial number on the £20 note I pulled out of my pocket started with a D - hence you can have a sell day (D for down) The last number ended in 1 which would give you Thursday 1st.... Random enough?? Blue - sell 1st August.

c'mon Patucca - you always say you dont care and now you are wanting some award - hint hint- probably awarded for number of posts at a guess - and are all steamed up. Boo hoo As in trading persistence pays - but as you never follow the normal rules you may as well give up......:haha:

You have been spoilt of late. you expectations of a $20 per day move are too high.

Wealth Management products in China.....definately a bubble. Wealth Products Threaten China Banks on Ponzi-Scheme Risk - Bloomberg it has everything, people desperate for returns.... accounting manipulations..... a side effect of other government policies..... huge size and growing.... based largely on trust and reliance on the weakest link not breaking..... inconsistencies and fierce competition.....

coin flipped.....tails. I also randomly picked the Friday 8/2

or excuses ...................

.................. The first strategy with the options is simply trading gamma - you are offsetting the time decay of the options against what will become historical volatility....a good strategy when used with some leverage for those days when you wake up and a crash occurs. Grinding markets probably wont hurt too much, but will still cost none the less. the other pairs trading strategy with some statistical arb thrown in also makes sense ---- IMHO - --- it looses it when the talk about unrealised v realised profits come in. Accounting fudges are delusional. Its simple if you have a pairs trade and you take off one leg at a profit and leave the other one until it also goes into a profit or back to BE then no matter how you cut and dice it - you have a simple directional trade in which you are crossing your fingers and may as well have done that in the first place once you change the nature of the trade. I do think ticks has done the right thing in a few respects but many then fall into the trap of changing what they do and not understanding it. Put simply - if markets are cyclical in nature and you are willing to risk they will swing back then wait put on the single trade that you would do when and if you would take off the first leg of the pairs trade - end result is the same with less brokerage.

try Commodity Systems Inc. ? EOD Market Data and Trading Software Though I am sure there are other cheaper variations around most data needs to be assessed for accuracy and also you may need to build your own continuous contract based on the raw data depending on when you would expect to roll a contract.

Sorry....you are from a family on this list and you cant find someone to implement a system that makes such good money....????? You cant do it? If you are from a wealthy family then you might have a better chance of finding the right people at the hedge funds that already trade and manage money for such families. Put the onus on the to find the right people implement the trades and have them explain why the live trading does not match the back tests. So you have not tested this live? Is it scalable? (Lets not worry about the compounding part - what is the capacity of the account assuming a fixed capital amount) If you like maybe I will trade it for you for a 20% cut of the profits. Send me your account details and I will organize your bank to transfer the money, set up the necessary contracts, separate administrator, auditor etc - I am fully licensed You supply the risk capital I will push the buttons. Happy to be a robot if its that good. ........................ now let me put my non believer skeptical hat on for more due diligence.

Yes the 80/20 :doh: Most trend following systems when tested might be more like 40/60 or 30/70 Trend following systems that might have a ratio of winners to losers can get this same ratio in a trending market depending on what the markets do.....rattling off markets only trend 20% of the time is pointless. Its as worthless as saying 80% of options expire OTM therefore its a low risk trade to sell them, Even with these ratios - when markets do trend and these are of course long term trend following systems - not applicable to day trading - they actually make good money without a doubling up of the losers (Matingale system). In fact they cut their losses. trend following as a strategy is usually about as far from martingale as you can get. Maybe this comment says it all "There is a version of a betting sequence which works for trading , but the information about it is private." - the secret sauce

According to Zupcon from his own experience even ten computers wont get the same results....and your example of of school exams has way too many variables to really be worth a comparison IMHO. Plus unless its multiple choice marking it is too subjective. (example I once re wrote an essay for a practice trial run copied word for word from someone who got 19/20 I received 13/20 - it reinforced my faith in the education system) But you raise an interesting point.... It would be fair to say most is mental - but first you need to have BUY IN from the participants. They need to understand and believe a system - simply handing it to them will not mean they will be successful.....and the results are not a mental defect or problem that needs to be fixed. Simply employing someone to run a system will not work for other reasons such as. ....and we have to assume the system is profitable over the long run.... .....and that people understand this, and know how it works.....(the buy in) ..... and that people are paid and also know that they will still have a job after diligently applying those rules even after a string of losses ( Hence another variable as to why people often dont follow rules) .....and that the system has no discretion - other wise why not give it to a computer. If you have ever heard from people trading in prop desks - often they reduce their stress through a simple mechanism - telling themselves - 'hey its not my money'..... and when it comes to hiring people - pay peanuts and get monkeys - or are you saying you will pay top dollar for people to simply follow some rules????? When if you have a simple set of rules that can be easily replicated and followed with very little discretion then UNLESS it can be shown that by using discretion and overriding those rules someone can get a better performance than the application of the rules then the default position should be to follow those rules.....why then dont people follow those rules? I think it boils down mainly one of or a combination of - ...they dont agree with the rules in the first place as they did not develop them (buying into an idea is crucial in many areas) ....they think despite evidence they can improve on the rules (think of human history and development and progress. I dont know if this is something that we wish to alter.) As to why someone who is employed and told to blindly follow the rules - easy - fire them when they dont and find someone who can - thats the joy of that side of the job ............................................ ........................ For trend following.....from your post# 40 """"By your post , trend following is practically impossible , 80 % of potential trend entries fail.Technical analysis is junk science or voodoo science , where cognitive biases distort perception of technical set ups , hence why mindset is 80 %. Without the 80 % mindset , you can not use crap science."""" Curtis Faith a turtle trader who supposedly was the most successful of them understood his role was to follow the rules - and thats why he did well. He has also discussed where he knew it was hard to follow those rules, and why many did not. The others did not follow the rules - the trend following worked - but people did not follow the rules because Plenty of people have developed successful and not so successful trend following systems - they developed them! Riding the drawdowns on such system usually cause people to stop or to tweak them for all the wrong reasons. I think (and going back to your first post and linking it to here) is you are looking at the difference of why people need to meddle and make excuses when given a system....as opposed to the mental aspect required to actually do the work of understanding....and this is where the hard work is. (Like I said its mental and we may be talking about who is on first - but all the mental aspect is as to why we get under stress when actually trading. Most of it is because people don know what they are doing BEFORE the start, or reviewing and positively tweaking when they do trade. Alternatively this could simply be a business discussion about why is it that employees will not do what they are told)

Absolutely - that is why you need to test and train and review and not just blindly follow a system.... ....and WTF "only psychologists" - you dont need to be a psychologist to understand and get this. Also here is a hint - test, train and review - it will help reduce the stress without the need of a professional. As to what to test - your own system! Welcome to life ......which is why when it comes to trading for most people they need to do more than blindly a system......and you know what.....the fact that the markets wok with uncertainty means that we have to constantly do more than blindly follow. You have merely introduced another bias by thinking we can accurately measure, model and perfectly map a system than can be blindly followed. ....and here is the point....... just blindly following a system that is not yours and understood by you based on how you think markets work it is almost doomed to failure. If you can give a system that works to 10 different computers would the results be different? The point is - if you dont have a system that you know, understand and believe in because you developed it then you are likely to not follow the system......and that is the problem. People think I just need to follow the system - why cant i follow the system - i need help following the system...... Its because they dont really believe in or know the system - they dont know them selves and the reasons why they do things and how they think the market works. The work is far more than simply being 80% mental when it comes to blindly following....and that is just one reason why X% of traders fail. If they developed any system themselves most would be likely to give up before they even start. ................ A lot of this clearly is revolving around discretionary systems as computerized automated ones should not be the issue - assuming they work. We might be like Laurel and Hardy here discussing who's on first but I get from your first post that you think it is about following a system, whereas i think its about developing one.

If the voices in you head are whats interesting Ekhart Tolle is worth a read (thanks Zdo for the reference) Personally I dont get into some of his stuff but it can be interesting and relevant and it does talk about the voices..... .....no it does not .....yes it does .....why I ought to wring your neck you m....f , ..... stop it your only hurting yourself. ......no I am not .....its me I am hurting which is myself..... stuff this both of us are going back to trading - the voice in the head there is much easier to understand .... yeah....plus you r stutting to blubbber like zdo...peeps have a good weekend

Friday ramblings.... aiming for consistency is what will probably kill you......you might get 8 mths of profits and then blow it all. why not take half the money and go for a big kill early on.....try and make the 100% in a few months. Then stop. Odds are this is a better bet than aiming for consistency - as others has mentioned this game is generally not about consistency. Its about waiting for opportunities. just a thought......

then they are reliable if they are all wrong. :haha:

too many variables to tell in half these things - never stops people from trying i guess.... plus - snbc and 'secret' must be right Quick and dirty analysis.... they say gold bulls are selling puts and hence crushing volatility ......which means they must be bullish and hence its near a bottom..... I could reply..... ...put sellers are willing to buy gold at lower prices (but not here) and are prepared to sell puts to accept delivery at these levels. Which would mean they might think its simply a good yield play or are willing to step in at lower levels. If they were really bullish they would be more likely to buy calls and get real upside - this would increase the vix...... Its all really a guess.....but if enough people think that this is a good level to put some risk on by selling puts then it could create a vacumm due to a lack of buyers, and put covering down below - might be even more bearish if they are wrong. Impossible to tell as we dont know their motivations, their hedges, their previous positions. All we know is that volatility usually ebbs and flows. as the writer says... "Traders have begun selling put options at inflated premiums, because they expect a turnaround in the gold market to occur. " - maybe a relevant question is - are the inflated premiums there for a reason ? Its all about risk transfer really. - Without the normal doom and gloom - people are worried that the bankers are a little bit hooked on the crack of QE, or the economy is or dont know how to really get off it - indecision never a bearish gold sign.

If this is true then thats why a trader should test, train and review - so things become automatic. The brain of a 5 year old does not need to understand physics, gravity and such to ride a bike but they can do it. We are not wired naturally to assess risks and probability - in fact we generally do it poorly- again this is why we test - to convince ourselves of it....and one of the reasons why you cant just pick up a set of instructions to trade and follow them. Probably the same as driving a car, bike, plane..... By training well you eliminate the noise and concentrate on whats important.....not sure what else to say. ...... Problem is most dont or dont do it effectively - there is another thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/16609-humbled-trading-log-40.html#post182965 which for me is why the mindset pre/post actual trading is important as well. ...................... .....as to getting a life - while I dont like the negative aspects of trading I much prefer this to a dead end corporate job where you still have 2million bits of info and nothing to apply it to or one sitting around doing nothing, and as such I understand the trades off involved and still choose to do it.....is it addiction or enjoyable..... go figure.

Bob did you realise that this link coincided with your post number 666 I only needed to look at the King World news home site - 5 articles listed about the shocking news behind gold.....how its going higher......no need to read further for me. But I did....according to their business section the only business in the world concerns gold :doh: Another one trick pony with a fixed set of beliefs. Which is all well and good, but it does not help trading gold. It merely reinforces a SHTF belief...... Me thinks they might be better spending their time doing other things before the world goes down in flames.....but hey - each to their own. Patucca will be back - he is probably just stashing his gold somewhere....dont know why if he is 70 years old though.

IMHO - You could probably summarize most posters good advice in this one aim or goal. If you dont have this basic goal worked out as a rationale for how you think market moves then applying the wrong method (or any random method) will be useless. Repeating this will just be insanity. Looking at any pattern in isolation without consideration of this rationale and trying to objectively measure it will just cause frustration. Forcing a method that does not suit your rationale will be like trying to force a square peg in the round hole....why do it. As the poster said " I have no sense of what will happen next." - probably as the rationale for how the market moves has not been thought through. Your rationale may in fact be completely bonkers - but if it makes sense to you, can be shown then that with some money management and simple risk management you can then tweak how best to extract money from the market when it fits your rationale using various appropriate methods then perfect.... To use the previous market trading floor and fruit barrow picture analogy....if you dont have an idea of why others will regularly buy off you at a higher price than you paid - then you will be left with nothing but rotting eggplants...no matter how good your sales techniques, quality of produce or location, location location is.

even if its brandished in most internet sites most dont do the work required even before trading, and after it....or if they did then they just went through the motions....your original post pretty much confirms that from what I can read. You list a bunch of excuses from traders that you think are idiotic and that they should be fired if they dont follow the system they are given. "Trading and successful trading is a simple process , it is the mindset of the trader which prevents them from being successful, they complicate it as listed above with all the issues and problems they create." Is that the general gist of it?