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SIUYA

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by SIUYA

  1. humans are naturally poor at valuing things and measuring and assessing financial risk. There are many experiments that show we act differently - and often irrationally with small changes in values. So yes....marketing and assigning the right value or incentive to manipulate peoples responses is key in how to charge. When it comes to value, I will happily pay $1000 for something I will use, but figure $10 is a waste of money for something I dont use. Plus there is the often underestimated value of time and wasted time
  2. electronic local sums it up perfectly - they are good for automating some things....managing the trade may be a different matter. Remember - nothing works all the time. Context is king
  3. anxiety is good, its natural. The fear of not sticking to the plan should be what we are worried about. We should not fear the market we should fear ourselves.
  4. ditto mysticFx and MM. if you gave it away for free, people will still want to change it, ignore it, not believe it. Charge....and people give it value. (religion comes to mind here for that added bit of controversy) I have seen many systems that claim to be great and charge for that, when they are not much better than a simple system you could apply with most retail platforms..... the market will pay what it can, and then after that the rest is marketing - marketing - marketing.
  5. the only thing that will statistically tell you that is historical examples.... of course past performance is no guarantee of future performance. ATR is a good measure, the context is not too bad - requires experience. Fibonaccis are often used (also often ridiculed). Pick something that you use and understand - learn how you apply it - and then be consistent
  6. the holy grail??? Some people apply a time limit, others a few bars, others just get out if it does not go in their direction right from the get go.... you choose.
  7. the exchange will have the formula and a lot will do with the broker you use. They usually have to comply with the exchanges minimums but also may apply their own. As a general rule you have to pay for the long options - so there is no margin. The short options are margined - this then depends on the broker...eg; some brokers will stress test and require less margin as you have calls, others may margin the calls in addition to the call costs. The broker should be able to give you are formulaic answer - if not suggest maybe another broker?
  8. for me the thing that is wrong - there is little context. Otherwise its just a back tested system to trade a variety of indicators. These usually get eaten by fees in my experience.
  9. i dont think it makes any difference these days. Before the advent of computers odd lots were a pain for stock settlements. now you just have to be careful of broker minimums and making sure they charge you for the order. In terms of splitting an order over the day...are you really big enough to worry.
  10. in my non expert opinion, but certainly experienced position of watching a lot of people deal with money after working on trading floors and trading rooms - you see a lot of corruption, greed, selfishness - plus the good things.... one thing I do know is that most of the greedy selfish and self centered people sleep very well at night. The reason being is two fold..... 1) they think that screwing people over is part of a game, and that they expect people to do it, and those that dont are the idiots. 2) they have very short term memories and they lie not only to others but too themselves. That way they convince themselves of their own usually self righteous re-written history....... its amazing to watch people tell a story a few days later about an event, have ten other people say ""thats not what happened"" and then have the same person look at you and say ""you''re all wrong, I am right - end of story"" This may also help explain why many need help in trading......self deception is often a wonderful and yet at the same time a terrible thing.
  11. google- maximum adverse excursion - it will give you another measure to look at. plus just because your stop is at a level it does not mean that you have to wait for it to be hit.
  12. unless you are hitting the market bids and offers, you are always going to be looking at history. I always shake my head when people talk about trying to compete with the institutions and the brokers.....its like an amateur rocket builder trying to compete with NASA. Understand your limitations and work with those.....you might find you make more money rather than worrying what everyone else is doing. There is no such thing as perfect information. Everything is relative.
  13. MM - in Australia a thong is footwear.....often referred to as.... ....Jandles, go- forwards, rice paddy riding boots, flip flops, camel toe sandles. You guys might now them by the brand name - havianas, or something similar. (while we are on this.... to all an sundry - Ugg boots are slippers people! They are not high end fashion, unless of course you like wearing dressing gowns and slippers down the road and still think we live in the 1950s) I thought that thongs might whet the appetite of our American friends......
  14. These reasons will change over time for me persoanlly and I would imagine for many people over their career, but at present......... I'm interested to know what your reasons are for being a trader. A.....initially i fell in to the job back in the 90s.After starting as a junior runner I was approached by an older manager to work for him. Worked on a futures floor, then the equity options floor. After my first two weeks of full time trading I knew this was the job for me. So basically I became a trader through luck. What do you love about it? Is it the money, the risk-taking, the self-cultivation? A....initially, I loved the excitement of being able to make money just by using the brain and the speculative aspect of it. This quickly dimmed when I realised there is a lot more to it, and the excitement is not a great aspect of the job, trading should be boring, a process....at least for me. Now I am more focused on process, and building a business around the trading (a seperate issue) as to be frank I am a little bored of the computer and keyboard punching.. The real appeal of trading that I still love, and which inspires me is the management of risk. The understanding of risk - when to apply it, when to scale up, down - when to avoid it......when you are in the zone - this to me is about risk management. (as some of the early market wizards used to say, manage the risks/losses and the profits look after them selves). The daily ever changing nature of markets and the endless number of recurring opportunities still inspire me at base level. About ten years ago, I traded for money - as I travelled a lot, and needed to fund that, and I also took about 6 months off but found it bored me to tears. Unfortunately for me (or maybe not) I am very risk averse and hence the money I make will never put me on the cover of Forbes, so while its partially about the money, its also not, but i do like the instantaneous aspect of the PL as a measure of sucess. What images or analogies does trading conjure up? A...usually incorrect ones that imply more glamour than the reality actually is. I currently share office space with 14 people....all with different styles and ideas...all trading theor own money (and some client money). Most wear thongs (or flip flops), board shorts and t-shirts to work, and sit in front of tonnes of computer screens. Some come and go during the day, others work non stop....Last week was not a happy office in general as most of these guys got caught long (some had some big uranium company exposures - ouch), but they are all experienced enough to know that its all part of the speedhumps. While others made a lot of money last week.... There is no fixed image in reality. Why are you proud to be a trader? A....I have no pride or regret....to me its a profession. One thing I dont like about it is when people who I dont know ask what I do and then ask for tips - for some reason it is always "how can I double my money" - my answer is - go to the casino and bet red or black - or people make comments like - "you are just a gambler", or speculators are evil......my answer to these people is - I hope you dont insure your house, use a bank or particpate in any government funded activities - as I help make a lot of these things cost effective, liquid and I pay my taxes - probably far more than they ever will. That usually shuts them up
  15. setting up a company in any jurisdiction is easy....weather it be an LLC, ltd pty, LLP .... Its what, and why that is important!! if you take client money - you need licences (to a certain extent) if you hire people you have extra issues such as super, taxes, HR.... some taxation authorities require you to disclose the nature of the business....income or capital gains.... if you are not likely to go down these paths why bother? if you are trading your own money - or family money - depending on the place - look at trust structures instead (now thats a whole other kettle of fish....but well worth while for flexibility if possible)
  16. interesting side note on market manipulation.... at most exchanges its deemed inappropriate or out right illegal. Putting in false bids and offers (spoofing) to lure people into trading. Many operators and brokers have been pulled up on that by the regulators. However if you look at the recent advances in algorithmic trading thats is exactly what they are generally designed to do....flush out orders and snip snip snip between them.....and yet the exchanges dont seem to think that this is market manipulation. From an old school perspective, and many of my colleagues agree....its exactly the same. Its just that in the old days the operator was a human, and now its a computer. However on saying that, I dont watch volume, I dont care about the numbers of buyers and sellers showing as I know that the market is formed only by the price action of the trades.....and so the market manipulation side of it is irrelevant to me. My view is if you are showing in the market and are live then it irrelvant until you trade.....ever had the problem of being in the cue and not getting set at the low, even though it traded there....? potential means nothing, deal with the reality. (This also ties in with my ideas of the market that they can go up and down based on a lack of traders on the other side - sort of like a vacuum. (others say the same things but in different ways) example; trading the SPI (Australian equity market futures index) look at a 1 min chart recently. Even though the market has been going down the last week, the index often fell slowly, and yet got sucked up very quickly - say 30 mins to fall 30 ticks, and then rallied back 20 ticks in 4 mins.)
  17. Mystic - I stoppped using ninja trader. I never really got into it, as i did not like the feel of it and the feedback seemed that it had issues with recent upgrades, so i focused elsewhere. For friva - given your trading it seems you might be best looking at anyone of the systems mentioned and seeing what you like. Each has a different feel, different style.....and so its up to you.....as each user is different. There is also a lot of fourms around for each which more specific questions might be asked. they all have trials, or a cheap to test for longer periods. Some brokers might also offer soft dollar options for CQG, bloomberg etc; if you pay enough brokerage.....this could also be an option? One other option might be OEC as it has the charts and broker all as one.
  18. only good for either..... 1) leveraging other people/employees 2) limiting liability.....no so much these days as you generally have directors guarantees 3) getting a licence to operate other peoples money when it comes to trading with others......thats a whole other kettle of fish, but a company structure is a possibility. If you are an individual why bother with a company, unless there are tax advantages in the jurisdiction you are in. is the company designed to trade its own money, other peoples money? is it a trading company or a broker, an advisor. why bother.....it adds extra admin if its not really needed
  19. plus with a trader education site you may need to be licenced......
  20. no offense taken and good to add to the list...... however CQG, and quite a few other packages get limited by the markets they trade......unless I am mistaken you cannot trade equities through CQG.???? Plus there is always the costs associated with a more professional system, which affects many people..... all depends on what you require.
  21. Hi Ingot, ..... I get your point and we do agree with a lot of things.... but what you seem to be suggesting is more regulation/protection for the trader/individual. I think we have too much regulation already that is not necessarily that effective.....and extra regulatory training wont help.....especially given that the information is already there.....largely free. the disclaimers and information are there. the education is there....see the exchanges, internet, the snake oil sales men. people choose to ignore it already. we dont need the thin wedge of extra regulation and ''çertification''..... it will give too many people another excuse
  22. as groucho marx said ....I don't care to belong to any club that will have me as a member" :haha:
  23. I agree with Tams.... Bloomberg, while greatly improved, is not a charting program. Major ones to look at an research as each has their advantages and disadvantages....plus it greatly depends on what instruments you trade and the info you want. Sierra chart, Multicharts, Metastock, Ninja trader, Amibroker, Tradestation, Esginal, advanced Get......the list continues.......
  24. Ingot - ""I stand by my position that in order to participate in the financial markets, traders need licensing ... something that at least guarantees they received instruction and knowledge. I think you might have taken the issue further when you brought in the regulatory side of the industry - but I know that it is toxic and broken - no amount of regulation can fix it, without destroying what it is. The regulators have NFI what they are doing anyway!"" I miss your point Ingot.....on one hand you want licensing, guarantees, but then you agree with me that even the experts cant fix a lot of it as it involves fraud, overselling, overleverage; etc; and/or the regulators dont know what they are doing..... This is exactly why I dont think we should have regulations - it will just cause more problems and people will mistakenly think they are better armed with information, and in the meantime it will just add to costs and administrative rubbish.....and will solve nothing. Best let the market do what it does best......educate some, and fleece those that dont want to do the work, think they know better, or as is usually the case - take on excessive risk and pat themselves on the back when it goes well and cry poor when it goes badly. History shows this will always repeat, and regulations wont change a thing. Most people dont read the pds and disclaimers as it is, and you want to introduce more??? Better to get rid of them, have one - "YOU ARE LIKELY TO LOOSE", and then if people choose to ignore this, limit how much they can loose by limiting the leverage...... and I would bet you, people will still ignore it and loose more. Think to the last scam run by the institutions - a ban on short selling.....what a joke. the regulations dont help the traders. (Re the CFDs - if people actually look at what they are - they are bets. It is then entirely dependant on making sure you have a good bookie who is honest or at least runs a straight shop. If you are an investor in these without understanding how they work then........run to mamma. Otherwise, go to a regulated exchange traded market.....this info is here, its available...people choose to believe the hype rather than use their brains) By the way - I know many brokers, I think most of them a snake oil sales men - even if they are my friends . Many are good and resposible, but they are compensated by comissions ...but I also know that ultimate responsibility is with me.
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