SIUYA

i would never claim trading is scientific because it is exactly that - subjective. Each persons view differs in many respects....hence why when people ask - give me something that works.....just does not work. Most systems only work some of the time - hence its certainly not science. Thats also why I dont try to count things like elliot wave - but to me when I see things like a 50% pullback in what I think is a retracement rally in an uptrend, and we have not done what I could see to be 5 waves, etc; etc; then it seems a pretty good bet that some of the pseudoscience might actually give me some odds the trend might continue....an if it does not, then i stop out. It can work for everyone in some form - it just may not work for a computer.

most expensive words in the English language - this time its different As a mob of humans we dont generally learn lessons such as this as our memories are short....(soon it will be what GFC?)....not to say Linked in may not be a success over the long term. It might be one of the few exceptions. Its when people throw out ideas of traditional valuations based on cash flow, earnings etc that it becomes pie in the sky stuff. Personally while economists actually like to think the stock market is a mechanism for raising capital ....yes it is, they often forget that it can very often also become a place of dumping assets with very high multiples. It then becomes a means of transferring wealth between the many to the few. I too like linked in but it does not make it a great investment at certain prices.

yes - where it starts where it stops and where you are at any one particular time depends on the person and as clmacdougall says - bias, context and trend. Elliot wave for me works best when it presents itself......you can often see 5 clear waves in something with a clear 3rd wave.....that is a clear alert for me the trend for those waves might be tiring..... but I never try and count the waves....I let them appear.

why jump from $10000 to $100,000 - why not implement it in increments. 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 OR and I recommend this to every one --> get rid of the monetary element of it and focus only in percentages.

i apologise tradewinds - I thought you wanted to be able to delete posts from a thread you started as per the heading.....I think the thread is for open discussion, the blog possibly should have other rights which I can understand the blogger can choose to ignore, delete rubbish. But ultimately when it comes to the threads, ignore works, and as its a public form you have to put up with the public.

most alpha is simply returns above a benchmark.....this is only relevant to those are happy to loose money when the market looses but claim they outperformed. Most traders would consider themselves uncorrelated absolute return generators without reference to a benchmark and trading only a few instruments and not a portfolio.....

you can ignore little brother.

no need to apologize Rande, this is all about discussions and where they lead, its more I am not explaining myself..... I am more talking about pricing psychology and how we react to the ideas of price and value....not about why we buy things.( If we only buy things for self worth then this is different.) Why is it we will place more value on something that has a price of 1cent than zero, why is it that we often have irrational perceptions of value, discounts and such. The things marketers prey on.....

the thin wedge of big brother

first you get the money, then you get the power then you get the woman.....say hello to my little friend (the printing press) (for all those too young to know of Scarface - Al pacino)

The US is different to here in Australia, but from what I do know a LLC is a limited liability company (the equivalent of a proprietary limited company (pty ltd) in Australia). This is usually the management company that advises and/or manages the funds. There can be two companies that look after the fund structure/entity. The investment manager and the investment advisor. The manager looks after the day to day running of the fund, and appoints the investment advisor to make investment decisions. The funds (the assets) are generally held in a trust structure of some sort - these may have units or shares. These are what are given to the investors. The Investors generally never invest in the manager/advisor. This structure is common, but not the only one. It usually involves costs of legal, compliance, accounting. An alternative is individual managed accounts, however, then again you run into requiring licences depending on the jurisdiction, size of assets, who you are targeting etc. There is a lot involved and well worth learning a lot prior to running other peoples money....it all looks good until you loose and the clients complain. regards the 15% loss.....yes I read that also and hence the suggestion, dont reinvent the wheel, get professional advice and proper documentation...a typo like that will ruin you. These documents are designed to protect you from the clients, and contrary to popular opinion, they dont protect the clients.

while the article criticizes him, so far not many others seem to have been able to give alternative solutions, apart from the let it fail and see where the chips lie.....well that is exactly what happened in the Great depression, Bernakes specialty....arguably the New Deal was what helped stop the depression worsening was similar to the current pump priming (maybe without the infrastructure build). Now depending on if he is successful or not will be a matter of history. I wonder if the Casey report is as critical of the free market zealots who helped cause the current situation? they certainly had no humility.

Rande - while I appreciate all the deep and meaningful Mummy and Daddy did not love me and I need to somehow get self worth from activities, I was more asking if you had any opinion on the behavioural economic studies being done these days that show we make poor judgements with regards to values and monetary values - not self worth. Sorry if my first question did not make this more clear. The point is - not involving individual self worth questions,- are we hard wired to make poor economic decisions or is this also cultural or a result of our up bringing in your opinion. Or is this not really an area of expertise for you? thanks.

looks like you are reinventing the wheel for what is commonly seen as a unit trust. I also think that you would want proper legal documentation done to iron out inconsistencies, and make it more an iron clad agreement. Plus upon reading that you might find depending on the jurisdiction you fall under, any complaints might cause the authorities to either rule that you are in fact taking on clients, or would have different taxation implications. Additionally the caluclations of NAVs and your internal accounts to look after all the varying client/owner statements is pretty difficult - there are multiple vrirations of how this can be done. There is a reason lawyers and accountants make a fortune out of the funds management industry.

good advice.....often I kick myself for doing too much on the fly, when the best thoughts are usually done after the market, such as - "" given we are in a bear market, today was strong, rallying toward resistance, tomorrow if it opens strong and there is no real follow through I will short at these levels."" Often when rushed I have had a tendency to suddenly get bullish thinking its a buy buy buy, when I have not done the homework.....impulse buying at its best, usually turns out to be the worst.

on that Rande, is it the attitudes of power, worth, money that gets drilled into us by our parents, or does this stem from something more innate/more primal regards the ideas of possession and loss? Do our brains actually hit a road block to do with money, and value or is this taught? I ask as there are now so many economic experiments showing we are not necessarily rational when it comes to assigning values to things.

and "7" and an "L" and a "I"

buy a farm, but a gun, learn how to live off the land.

that one is applicable to all beginers

or maybe he had been doing it for so long he thought he could get away with it......hasn't he heard the old "I'll call you on my mobile as these phones are taped" tradewinds---- when it comes to insider trading, the general rule is anything that could have a material effect on the the share price that is not publicly known that you then buy or sell shares in that stock. (Even if you are just exiting a position that you were long). (underlines for the key words) In other words once you have knowledge of something that could be seen to move the price, and you act on it, you could be considered an insider.....so it should really be up to you and or your broker/CEO/analyst to be aware of this, and often you can ask NOT to be told of certain information, unless this information is being made freely available to anyone. This is why is hard to proove it, yet also easy to imply it. (I know of someone charged with insider trading when they bought shares throughout the day, then sold some of their shares on the close to reduce their position, as they were questioned by their bosses about the size of their position. They thought they were questioning that the position was too large, when in fact it seemed that the bosses knew (suspected) a takeover was coming. Sure enough the takeover came. Nothing came of it, but the mere suspicion and actions at the wrong time can raise alarm bells) You can insider trade and loose money and still be convicted Different rules for different countries of course.

if you are a day trader, then a trend lasts a day. If you are entering on 5min charts then 12 of these might be enough to form a reasonable trend, but the hourly chart might be in chop. so yes ..... how to define a trend is completely up the the trader, but not necessarily how long they plan to stay in the trade....you could enter on 5 min entries, and let things ride for days or months. More important is to match what you are trying to do, in defining for yourself which trend you are trying to become friends with. Some trends are downright treacherous bas...ds.

take a set of rules - put 1000 people in the room, odds are a small selection of people will break those rules for their own advantage. Change the rules, or change the people, my guess is the same will happen. I hate to say it but maybe his best trade would be to cut his losses and disappear to another country if he could.

while I agree - there is the other flipside that its more important to match the system of exits and entries....if you are short term enough then a correction may in fact be a trend Personally I cringe when I hear the words over bought, oversold, expensive and cheap.

Stealth marketing maybe

Reminds me of Seinfeld - George Cantstandya - ma-newer – (related terms: small, quirky bald man) 1. a new way to think about the word manure 2. quote: if you think about it, manure is not really that bad a word. I mean, it’s ‘newer’, which is good, and a ‘ma’ in front of it, which is also good. Ma-newer ,right?” – George 3 Plus when it came to parties, plenty came, it was just those folks who were unreliable. If you are prepared to travel just for a party then maybe you are an Aussie....driving 6 hours one way for a party was definitely seen as a normal thing.