SIUYA

fib levels are one of those very personal things. One person can interpret it completely differently to another and they may both be looking at the same chart in the same time frame. A lot will depend on your definitions of other such things as "uptrend". "downtrend" etc; Also how do you determine from where to draw the start and end point from which to measure.....these are very personal and ideally should just be worked out for you in a sense for you.....and then apply it in a consistent fashion. Often you might say that if something consolidates or starts to bounce from a 50% retracement level then it is likely that the recent move is just a retracement of the prevailing bigger trend, and so going with that trend is a potentially safer trade. As a starter I tend to think about it as such.... If I determine an instrument is in an uptrend, and it looks like its having a pullback, and that pullback is near the 50% level, then if might offer a long opportunity. (note all the might and if words) and if I am long and the fib has extended, then the 100% fib extension from where i measured it might be a place I would expect some profit taking to occur. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/2/24865d1307596798-fx-eurotrash-eurchart.gif OR if if I thing something is in a downtrend and it has a corrective ABC move back up retracing the downtrend, then the C leg of the ABC move may be a 100% extension of the AB leg from B...this could offer a shorting opportunity. (sorry dont have picture at present, but will get one) There are ample sites around showing how to draw these, and every charting program while similar may also differ - so read their help logs. to keep it simple as a suggestion focus first on 50%, 61% retracements, and 100% and 161% extensions.....then see what works for you in regards other ratios. Otherwise you will find many many lines to trade from

if you just need historical data that you are then going to then build on, there are free options around (they might not be accurate enough) and IB does offer such abilities but unless they have really improved in this regard they are not great for mass downloading - too many throttling issues and I have had bad data from them. They are good for on going recording data daily. Esignal - the advantage they have is that they offer a broad range of instruments, and you will need Qlink to help gather that data unless you want to do it manually. A lot will depend on how many instruments you want to download. The thing you will be wanting to take into consideration as well are issue with the on going data collection..... eg; are you going to be able to download and add to your data base every day.... what happens if out of say 200 stocks - 5 of them have dubious data, or are closed. what happens if you go on holiday and cant download - how do you fill in the missing data How manual is it - and how many instruments are you going to use. You dont want to spend hours downloading and checking data every day. what happens when you have public holidays - how easy is it to adjust the data? What is the range of instruments - futures, FX, equities? if its for back testing you will need dividend and futures adjusted data otherwise you are wasting your time doing inaccurate backtests. If its just for charting its not as important maybe. Personally I use Esignal as it gives me a charting package and enough other facilities that make it worth while to not double up on things....and it supplies the data. To be honest I think there are better charting systems out there, but it gives me enough for what I need now.

good advice.... especially the last one.. Never deal with a deranged personality in business - especially if it is yourself. The otherone which you mentioned and is good advice - when dealing with such small or large courts - only present the facts. Keep the emotion calm - this is not some TV drama, and the magistrates look down poorly on those who dramatise everything.....much like trading.

Sorry to hear - my brother had a similar story Ingot and it cost him but he did not have the documents to back up his story. From personal experience I keep every document - and now thanks to the wonders of scanning - also keep a computer record separately as well. It seems like a lot, but about 2-3mins a day might save you months down the track - this also applies if the tax man audits you. (put all those records in a big bag shake it up and present them as your receipts - so long as they are all there then you are fine, even if it takes them longer to audit you Unfortunately these days you have to protect your own ass with all the documents and correct timelines as very few people in the banks are paid to take accountability and responsibility. Everything is compliance related and designed to protect the banks - deny, deny, deny, computer says no, is often the first response. You are right that you have to know how to escalate these things and get everything in writing.....often I have actually written an email back in point form having and getting them to confirm - my understanding - of things...... it goes a long way in a dispute and has saved me time. Otherwise I am sure you are now banking with some other reputable establishment ?

if its reasonably automated and not too high frequency how about a range of products. eg; CL, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, ES...... some of the currencies will get a bit correlated maybe. If going for just one instrument my vote is EURUSD

so what was the mistake? - buying shares after doing a lot of research - buying shares after doing a lot of research and then buying the stock because you could afford to do a strategy in it, and hence the research was a pointless waste of time - doing a buy write strategy - not having a stop loss - or remaining a stock holder if the mistake is having a loss - then you will make lots of them with a trading career

life is a gamble ......................

I dont have any doubt that you believe your method is profitable I also believe that your method can be profitable - make no mistake about that I do however question your belief that you can be profitable..... 1- while undercaptialised, 2- while trying to implement a higher risk (yet also potentially higher reward) strategy of picking turning points which can be frustrating 3 - while you take quick profits and dont run a position after correctly picking a turning point 4 - while under pressure to earn income from this full time and 5- while at the same time questioning the positioning of your stops and the frustrations around this...... Please dont take this is discouragement but as food for thought

ez trader jr - what is lava?

if you do have a separate income and job, it most likely would solve some of your patience in entering and exiting as you will not then have the luxury of sitting watching and being impulsive, however, you will still be impatiently hankering to be back full time trading. It would also likely force you to really put your exits strategy into your plan - to me it seems as you have not done this - with comments such as "" It led to staying in positions too long or not staying in them long enough."" In other words - you dont know how long to stay in trades and so have not clearly planned for many eventualities - or you have not come to accept that often the plan will get loosing trades even though the overall strategy is the right one. Make sure your strategy is not just profitable in hindsight or with big enough stops that it becomes either unprofitable/unsustainable. In an ideal world, the plan is profitable enough that we just keep applying it with the knowledge/faith/belief that over the long run it will pay off.......and in the meantime make us enough money to have an income as well, and give us peace of mind that it will work.......in an ideal world.

example attached. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=24881&stc=1&d=1307838912 It shows two sets of lines - one dark blue the other light blue. The dark blue is a 20 bar Donchian channel based on weekly charts The light blue is a 100 bar (5 days x 20 weeks) channel based on daily charts Due to the nature of the program (in this case Esignal) the weekly seems more immediately reactive to moves and adjusts (or so it seems to Mondays, rather than waiting until the move may occur), hence from a historical point of view seems early, but when using it live it will be different. Personally I dont think it matters which you use, so long as its consistent, and you understand why you are using it. Pick one or the other. the reason for using the mid point is simple it gives a very clear indication to avoid certain bottom picking/top picking trades. It is an indicator as a filter only for me....and i dont use it to exit or enter (you will have similar issues as with a Moving avg) but unlike a MA it gives definite horizontal levels in the price. (as per maxr - yes you are right - squint your eyes look at the chart and you can clearly see a trend - thats why these are indicators and can be used to filter out trades, keep traders on a checklist and help stop them punting wildly - it gives them the definition of a trend - plus a computer often needs something like a mathematical filter to be able to squint its eyes and see the same thing )

6.50 am wake up as an optimist - turn on computer/blackberry check over night markets - smile or feel ill depending on position and what markets did. 7.15-8 beach, coffee, walk, exercise - let the voices in the head plan out the day (sometimes they help) 8-8.50am track though charts, plan day - read a few articles, maybe adjust some stops on currencies. commute to office (this is the worst part, but a sacrifice for company and an end to previous work solitude and boredom) 10am Aussie stock market opens - 10.30 orders settled and done...... watch and wait and research ideas, try to teach myself programming etc; etc; chat with people in office 12.30 - lunch - this could develop into those long lunches or a quick 30-60min trips to the pub or for a sandwich - depends on the weather or the trading opportunities. rest of the day (when I dont have some other thing to do) is spent talking crap, playing practical jokes, looking at markets, talking opportunities, biting fingernails and cursing the markets if its that type of day, swapping cooking recipes, telling crappy jokes, - typical mens shed stuff. 4pm market closes. Update PL sheets, analyse the stupid things I did for the day, think about tomorrow Maybe pilates, or some exercise (lately admin starts until I feel like going home - I hate that legal and compliance now seem to be ruling the financial world today and that accountants and lawyers are just basically another government subsidized industry to protect us from ourselves) See - by now its late in the day and the ranting and ravings of a bunch of old traders is starting to show through. adjust overnight currency trades stops and entries....curse the silly things I did during the day Drive home and enjoy the solitude and calm that only rush hour traffic can bring. Either go out with friends or cook and have some red wine with the crazy female partner while I tell her how exciting my day was and how interested in her day I appear to be - If I show enough interest in that then a winning trade might occur later on. Otherwise I get stopped out. go to bed as a pessimist for restful blissful drooling sleep of about 7-8 hours Actual pressing button time probably 5-10 secs, thinking time 23hours, 59 minutes 50 secs.

emazing - making money is what its all about, and thats the bottom line - if you can do it then great. Taking a few points over and over again does work for some. Without getting in any debate over which is better or worse - stocks or futures, as you mentioned you have done both.....as have I - and each has their advantages and disadvantages Point is both of us do agree that futures can be tough - trading on steroids etc....and yet why do all these ''sales pitches'' seem to imply to the retail guys - trade with the big boys, trade only a few hours a day etc.....when often that is what gets the inexperienced into trouble. A few contracts for most people means nothing in the scheme of the big boys (every tried to move 1000 contracts ??) Too often people want to hop straight into the racing car without first learning to drive. They overlook the disclaimers surrounding the risks of leverage and focus on the "easy pickings"...... I guess I am being a little protective of stocks (my first love) and touchy about the slime bucket shops that prey on fresh meat with the lure of futures being the best thing since sliced bread, with the sales pitches mentioned above. (not that I am implying this is at all related to you) Years ago I worked on the futures floor and hated the egos there, I moved the the equity options floor and lost a lot of the cowboys and joined the thinking mans club. So I guess that could be the alternative sales pitch - ""trade stocks and options for the intellectual buzz, if you want to be a gambler and hang out with the riff raff trade futures - anyone with a small account balance can do that job - it takes a real talent to make money in stocks."" - reverse snobbery - you know it happens!

I unfortunately learnt the hard way and watched a bunch of no names - even though they are friends on option floors and learnt from my own experiences. You watched the guys who were calm and patient, who did more than bully their way around who put on the good bets - those that were more conservative and there for the long term. and Tim, while it sounds narcissistic maybe, but you forgot to add yourself. The influence you have on yourself is immeasurable. Apart from a few on the list already mentioned - Swagger, Livermore, Swartz who I read about, 1....Ultimately the one who swayed me the most had to be some of the readings of George Soros, and the ideas of small bets until the market goes your way and then you go with it with bigger bets.....not really day trading but the principles can apply, 2.... and even though as option traders we were already structuring books around long volatility plays and looking for big moves before the books and ideas came out - Nicholas Taleb with the Black Swan ideas put them nicely into word form in a book. 3....Joe Ross books - 5 minute trading, trading as a business etc, helped give more a formal format to the old gut feel you develop while working with pencils and paper beofre the old fashioned computer screen and instant chart.

unfortunately a lot of books only become books when they get fluffed out enough to become a book. Systems dont take a book to be divulged. The classic of this is the turtle trading system. The same old BS that gets trotted out is also often not BS- more often than not its ignored even though it works.....funny that. One I liked was ""Trading systems that worked - Thomas Stridsman"" This will give you a great guideline to start..... as for a trading system that works all the time with exact parameters to suit everyone that can be put into a book and sold that everyone thinks is the holy grail - ---- dream on.

suggestion - donchian channel - but the mid point is used for determining the trend. Below - generally downtrend, above uptrend either use weekly (eg: 20 week) on the daily - or use 100 day (5days*20weeks) They will give slightly different levels on many systems

and so the question maybe should be -- given most traders will loose - why do they trade futures when they start? IMHO - its because you rattle off the math of picking up 4 points and multiplying it, putting into $ and often people cant see past the prospect of winning big dollars to realise there is more to it. While this actually has little to do with the decision to trade stocks or futures - the real reason you can do what you do is because of the leverage..... and that cuts both ways. it amplifies the losses. futures definitely have the advantage over stocks for their leverage and their liquidity, but is that a temptation that becomes a curse for many?

stock shorting is a real pain, and its definitely a different set of skills required, but when mastered (and in the right market) can be very profitable, mainly as markets generally fall faster and harder than they rally. Plus I guess there is the added bonus of a fall from $100 to $50 is a 50% fall while a rise from $50 to $100 is a 100% rise - which one becomes easier? I have been in a few short squeezes before when stock gets recalled - never pretty as you just know you are f...d, its a matter of degree. In the US there is definitely a lot more availability to short and it seems better facilities to do so, as you definitely need a good stock lender who has a good book for stock loans, otherwise if you are back of the que it can be terrible. I think Australia instigated some of the most draconian short selling prohibitions during the GFC and as always short sellers are demonised when markets go down. I watch a small gold stock here everyday where there is $1000s of dollars of free money with company issued options being sold below parity - except you cant short this stock as there is no one to borrow it from....so you cant take advantage of it.....talk about frustrating Plus in the US you do have more derivatives - and liquid derivative markets to be able to buy puts - this is often not available elsewhere...

were you going to hold it for this time, or are you day trading? if you are day trading - forget and it move on to the next trade otherwise that :crap: :doh: will never go away.

on having a look at it, the last little rally has moved to give me my first entry.... a simple retracement so I can sell into some strength. red line shows where i would be likely to stop out (its not hard and fast as i dont wish to be spiked out) and its larger than normal as I expect that the upward trend could have a little more in it. But ideally if i can start to build positions as they go my way....it would be nice...so start with some small qtys first. I would also like to see the low of 1.4570 taken out for a little for negative confirmation. Normally I like to go with the trend a bit more and sell into weakness, which I hope to if any downtrend progresses, but I have been patiently waiting for this one and so realise I am going early. ....except the weekly trend is arguably down from jan 2008

logic usually comes with hindsight when the successful soothsayers can say - i was right. Even when the real reason for the rally/fall was not because of their reasoning anyway! Personally I have been waiting/waiting/waiting, and my call is look to start putting on shorts in the EUR USD now - however you normally do it for a larger move down. I will be looking to put on shorts with close stops and build them - it all depends on how aggressive you want to be in terms of waiting to sell into rallies or short the down days - up to you. (this is all personal opinion of global marco ideas, and is not based on any real technical reasons except that if you look at the weekly charts, this could potentially be a lower high in a series of lower highs)

ah-ha the holy grail of trading. you need to make sure that you have enough money to stay in the game. the risk of ruin is called that for a reason. When you are undercapitalised you will always have this issue The pressure of perfect entries v lack of capital v pressure of needing to trade is going to make your trading extremely difficult.....maybe a new job - for a period of time - is required.

as Tams said in his wonderful manner..... these answers are here, freely available and most of them revolve around the same old thing of dont fight the trend, run the profits, cut the losses, wait for the opportunity, have a plan and be consistent. Most of the 90% seem to want to prove that these things dont work, and the few times/examples/people that going against these general rules succeed they trump out as the new holy grail. I have done it as (or tried ) I am sure most have, and some continue to do it to their peril - you dont need to reinvent the wheel. The lure of taking on the market and picking a top or bottom is more addictive and just as soul destroying as the worst narcotics.

it makes sense for Soros given his early role as an equity analyst and his belief in the reflexivity of markets...... if Gold really goes, why not have access to something that ideally should really participate in the upside as if its costs are fixed but the profit side of the equation is all blue sky, but if as a well managed company might offer downside protection if gold comes off or goes nowhere. Personally I dont have a view on gold, but if pushed viewing the GC #f on esignal I would look to a short with a close below 1520.40 with a close stop, it will take a lot for the uptrend to come off. The other thing it gives me a gut feel of, is it will go for a new high and then fail. Otherwise, the trend is your friend and if you are long hang on.

which is in worse condition - the US or the EURO - if you want to sell the EUR, which currency will you buy. and since when does common sense have anything to do with the markets?