SIUYA

does it seem slightly suspect to you that these countries were allowed to borrow more than they could repay and that lenders and market ratings companies encouraged this in the first place. That politicians pandered to the populace with promises that the average person fell for that we could all retire early without working and spend spend spend without care about when we repaid it..... that banks and industry can lobby to get bailed out when in fact they probably should have been allowed to fail, or that we allowed sooooooo much leverage into a system that it was almost bound to cause problems as all over leveraged investsments eventually do. Or that even as its seems universally accepted that Greece is unable to repay the debts, we still dont call it a default...... Humans, deny deny deny there is a problem until its too late.....then re band aid the problem and history repeats. (dont worry I am not a doom, gloom merchant or a conspiracy theorist - this is just normal) So no - to me its not suspect - the market is just being incredibly slow to recognise that the economies probably are more fragile, and when the penny drops everyone rushes around and tries to PYA (protect your ass) at the last minute as the hope and denial they had been hinging on evaporates....

losing money over an over again might eventually cause you to re-attune A friend of mine used to call golf a game of opposites and when its explained in regards many golfing aspects it makes sense - and that is an equally tough mental game to conquer. Hence your what you resist persists comment seemed similar - quick fixes and moving alignment further to the left to fix a slice does not work. (and personally I find golf a far better mental comparison to trading than poker is ) In terms of the best way to achieve it - as a suggestion - recognize that it is an issue (maybe its not ), and then work out if there is a problem what aspect of your trading it is affecting. You dont want to stuff up areas that work in the pursuit of some fix for some thing else.....do this before you even worry about how to fix it. and sometimes its a simple as this - some people should not be trading - what they are trying to get out of trading is completely in contradiction with their personality or desires - give the money to someone else and get a job you enjoy...

Great point and 100% correct, and that is why backtesting can give you an idea of how something might work, but is in no way a predictor of exactly what to expect....it is just another indicator. Data management is a major part of back testing, and the ongoing management of data when auto trading is another aspect that many do not take into consideration - especially if trading a variety of instruments. If you think you can set and forget then you can probably kiss your money bye bye If you trade longer term models, slippage can make a difference but having poor data makes an even bigger difference, and while many system vendors trade shorter term they still underestimate the importance of having accurate data that can cope with the real world. (Today I missed a stop as my slippage was a few extra points and it also meant I did not get a reversing order completely done - no biggie, but it turned a theoretically flat day into a looser - a model would not show this) I never challenge system sellers as I dont care for them but its definitely a point to make for those that do.

For the latest crazy sport..... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ9AQ9yppAI]YouTube - ‪Rope swing!!!!.mov‬‏[/ame]

comments if i may to inject thought into it....(my price levels are rough guesses) The first trade you did enter long 2392.75, why did you not take profits at the resistance near 2395? Instead it got stopped out. and yet the second trade you seem to enter at 2395.5 and take profits at 2397.5? If following breakouts, then you dont want to take breaks near resistance, as they are likely to hold the first time, you want to take breaks of resistance, and you have to be clear in the levels of what constitutes resistance and support of course. If you want to anticipate that a break will occur, then ideally doing that on a pullback from resistance the first time in a mean reverting instrument might be worth a go....very different to a failed break Also it looks like you entered the first trade on a break out of the smaller frame, and the second on the break in the larger frame.....that seems a bit inconsistent??? (sorry I may be reading this incorrectly as I dont ever use tick charts, but from a first look it seems that way)

I would say you are correct - that the past behavior of expired options will not affect the current options - however, that was not what was asked, and it may not be the reason why they want past information. Maybe they are trying to reconcile their accounts, trying to track the behavior of an option to see how it moves from the exchanges mark to market system. and yes you will often see strange things between options strikes and series. You need to then understand and then investigate why... does the system you look at only show the last traded price, does it show the mid point between the bid offer spread of the market makers, does it give a theoretical value derived from an average volatility measure, are you looking at your theoretical prices. Derivatives such as options will always add many extra dimensions as to their pricing, and there is a lot more to understanding them. Regards Sina - without more info i could not comment, but maybe volatility was coming off and everyone was a seller and the last sales were reported strangely, or a spread went through....who knows.

Very very sound advice - particularly when it comes to commodities and equities. As you have to roll futures contracts and there is a backwardation and contango issue there are various ways to produce a continuous chart - will it be continuous, will it be back adjusted and how.........hence there will be various charts that can be produced from the same data.....each with different price levels of support and resistance. (eg; is the support level for a December contract the same price level as the previous June contract even though there has been a couple of rolls in between with a premium for each roll.) Then there is the additional issues of is this an inflation adjusted commodity chart or an equity index or stock that has the dividends adjusted for it. The point is there are many questions and variations possible..... Take optiontimers advice and stick with what you are sticking with otherwise you will just confuse the issue.

all depends on the strategy really. Some strategies work best scaling in, others scaling out. Only historical stats can really tell you this, and then you get into a whole other kettle of fish of then how many do i scale in or out at at different levels?? The other thing to take into consideration is - does scaling work for me - does it make sense, does it make sense with the way I am trying to trade and my ideas of the market. If it looks great on paper but you cant do it mentally then so what. Like everything in trading its another trade off and no correct answer, if you can automate it 100% and test it then you might have some idea.

IMHO something that has been written in other threads and here and sums it up perfectly..... it depends on the strategy If you are short term looking for high frequency profitable patterns whereby you are taking quick profit targets, then its likely to be entries that are more important. If you are longer term looking to capture bigger moves, then the exits have more influence. everything is a trade off and if you mix and match poorly the strategies and the exits and entries then you end up baking a chocolate cake that tastes like play dough.

Sometimes when I reflect back on all the wine I drink I feel shame. Then I look into the glass and think about the workers in the vineyards and all of their hopes and dreams . If I didn't drink this wine, they might be out of work and their dreams would be shattered. Then I say to myself, "It is better that I drink this wine and let their dreams come true than be selfish and worry about my liver." ~ Jack Handy WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may leave you wondering what the hell happened to your bra and nickers. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they Wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher, smarter, faster and better looking than most people. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." ~ Henny Youngman WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may lead you to think people are laughing WITH you. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "24 hours in a day, 24 beers in a case . Coincidence? I think not." ~ Stephen Wright WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may cause you to think you can sing. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "When we drink, we get drunk. When we get drunk, we fall asleep. When we fall asleep, we commit no sin. When we commit no sin, we go to heaven. So, let's all get drunk and go to heaven!" ~ Brian O'Rourk e WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may cause pregnancy. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." ~ Benjamin Franklin WARNING: The consumption of alcohol is a major factor in dancing like a retard. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Without question, the greatest invention in the history of mankind is beer Oh, I grant you that the wheel was also a fine invention, but the wheel does not go nearly as well with pizza." ~ Dave Barry WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may cause you to tell your friends over and over again that you love them. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To some it's a six-pack, to me it's a Support Group. Salvation in a can! Dave Howell WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may make you think you can logically converse with members of the opposite sex without spitting. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ And saving the best for last, as explained by Cliff Clavin, of Cheers. One afternoon at Cheers, Cliff Clavin was explaining the Buffalo Theory to his buddy Norm. Here's how it went: "Well ya see, Norm, it's like this. A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo. And when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first.. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members. In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Excessive intake of alcohol, as we know, kills brain cells. But naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine.. That's why you always feel smarter after a few beers." WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may make you think you are whispering when you are not ...

not to be confused with a random trade

this is a crucial element that is often overlooked when you develop a "fear" of trading. and is particularly so when trading with a small undercapitalsed account. How you view money...... It does not matter who you are - if you are trading with a $5000 account, $500 means a lot both in percentage terms and most likely in terms of how you view $500 as you presumably only have $5000.....and that $500 easily gets translated into what else is $500 worth - a great bottle of wine, a weekend away, the kids school excursion.... At the same time, you need to value the value of a dollar as they say. In other words even if you have money you should not be cavalier about losing what to you might be trivial, as a loss is a loss is a loss. Probably why its advised to only trade with money you can afford to loose, and also dont think in terms of dollars, think in terms or pips/ticks/risk reward etc; etc. Additionally, the day trader has the issue of seeing the dollars tick up and down instantly in many systems, and what hurts more - giving away the dollars we think we made, or giving away some pips? and the pips they are trying to make mean every single one counts for some traders......If you are going for 1000 pips and giving back 100 is not such a big deal, but going for 4 pips, giving back 1 pip can hurt. This point is multiplied many times over when people step up from SIM to real trading - the additional element of money (however we view it) changes the mindset.

hi Rande (yes its me again), always interesting as usual, however in the spirit of opening discussion I would like to make some comments/suggestions/observations. I have also been having similar discussions with some trading friends that have revolved around this very subject, so its topical. as you allude to later, for many traders they have this search for consistent results.....the desire to be right in the face of uncertainty. This is the reason it is recommended to have trading plans so that you know what you want to do when certain events occur, and hence there should be no uncertainty. This however will still not prevent people from wanting to be right and consistently so.....the search for consistent results can be inconsistent with trading profitably. A trader should happy to be wrong so long as they are consistently profitable......and this seemingly nonsensical statement messes with the mind. It is easy to accept that there is uncertainty in the market, its hard to accept that you cannot master that uncertainty, or that you have any control over it, or that you are going to be wrong as much, if not more than you are going to be right. There is nothing consistent about it, even though as a trader you aim for consistency, and yet at the same time, consistency in following your rules is an important element. mindf...k number 1 acceptance that you WILL make many, many errors and that you are fallible is very hard to overcome. Most people when asked a question are afraid to answer a question when they dont know the answer or many cant even say "I dont know" and yet they will very quickly give opinions and act on their own opinions in the same circumstance because they believe they are right.....what gives????? Once you know you are more likely to be wrong, and accept this, then you still need two other things....1...a plan to reverse the wrong decision, and 2...the ability to act on that plan. So there are plenty of elements that make being wrong so hard to accept. It is probably more the pride than the fear (or I am sure these are related - public fear of loss of face etc) that holds people back. I sort of disagree with you here....his training is not based upon certainty as a lawyer....its based on him being able to convince others that he is right, and he would surely understand that some outcomes wont go his way.....and yet it is not his life or equipment at stake, when he is wrong, and there are variations of results when he is wrong...not the black and white of the markets....... there is no certainty in the law either (arguable of course ).... he probably still got paid even when he was wrong As an engineer, there is a lot more certainty in mathematics and proven processes than the markets, you dont need to accept that , and yet if you look into a lot of professions....there are many cases where there are errors/mis judgements..... Which then relates to this which I feel does not make sense in Jims case....or more to the point, I imagine it shows there is more that just a simple fear response of losing going on..... but he was right.....so in other words he had a fear of what ??? being right again for the exit??? yes probably, but then nothing has changed, a trading plan is only right in its entire plan over a series of trades, its not partially right, and then partially wrong....its either right or wrong, after the trade is exited., and trading sucessfully is not about one entry, one exit or one trade....its about a series of trades. So in other words if he is just fearful of being right, and by closing trades down early, then he is actually confirming that he is wrong in his plan.....so in other words he is actually being wrong even more than he thinks he is......:doh:. Again another mindf...k when you think about - that by thinking you are right you are actually being wrong. this is where I think there is that extra step as well......how is it that people can SIM trade profitably and then loose money when its real????? In SIM trading it will still show if you are right or wrong, so surely the fear factor associated with this not there.....I would suggest its one of two things.....1....the trader while SIM trading was actually dishonest with themselves or 2....there is as you mention a money narrative at play, and this money narrative is a different fear/impulse that that of being right and wrong....its more about how you view money/self worth (whatever) and so you have a whole other mindf...k to contend with on top of all the others and while related it could be completely separate. IMHO. Otherwise, yes I think everyone can agree that change comes from within, its possible and it takes time etc; etc..... I just think there is far more going on than what is given, and often the point of trying to acheive consistent results is not the end game. Too often this search for consistency actually causes the problem. We search for consistent results in wanting to be consistently right, when in actual fact you should aim for consistency in application and knowing and accepting that you will be wrong a lot! As an aside what I do find interesting is this.....the allure of day trading is far far harder than people realise. Not only do you have the various mindf...ks (give me a better word for the layman please), but you also have the fact that - the more trades you do, the more decisions you do then you are at greater odds to make a mistake, and yet by day trading you are forcing yourself into this high turnover decision making process. So either get a computer to do this or realise and accept you will be wrong a lot, or expand out of day trading. Ask yourself do you want to be right, or do you want to be profitable. I will take being wrong plenty so long as at the end of the year I am profitable. (presently my mojo has left me, I not only dont have a view on the Aussie stocks I am trading, it appears no one else does, so I have plenty of time to think about this )

i think the hotdog eating was more controversial than you might imagine....much like trading goggle Koybayasji hotdog news

looks interesting doubletop11 a couple of questions if I may.... I've Done It! I have finished my automatic zone drawing indicator for ninjatrader and now working on transporting it to Tradestation, then I will make it available for a bunch of different platforms....... are you thinking about doing it in the C++ format - for such platforms as Sierra chart or Esignal? ....are you planning on selling this, offering it as a subscription, making it freely available? 4.) I have found that using the secret chart I can run around with very small stops and every trade can start out like scalp then turn into a big movement if price so allows. I would post some entries that I've taken in the past week, but I would rather do it in real time or predict them just to show how these zones are working. It also requires you to run around with 3 contracts at least. ..... why does this require 3 contracts?....I look forward to seeing something in action...even historically as a guide to what it can do. It seems that rather than having to manually input zones, you have automatically developed a zone finder (if thats a way to put it).......are these zones alerts for your secret charts to then focus on entries or can you further program the zones to incorporate entry/exit rules? thanks.

zdo - when you are back from that other frustrating but somehow rewarding game of golf, you might be interested in this. A friend writes this blog - trading diary of a late riser - and he has just switched into writing a new one - I think you might find it interesting, (personally I am not like him, but I find his thoughts and responses something we all have, and how we deal with them interesting) Trading as therapy

if you are only after something like that for expiry day only you dont need a platform really. Unless you are in a really crappy market with big spreads, on expiry day all the in the options both puts and calls will generally be bid just below their intrinsic value, while the at the money will swing between partiy and effectively zero for the day, apart from people wanting to exit these options. If you are looking just for expiry day action, there is generally not much more to it than that and getting a course of sales for liquid options and comparing it to the course of sales for the underlying for the day should confirm this. If not I would suggest the market makers there are taking people for a ride.

depends on the system and the data feed provider.

warning potentially offensive.......which I approve of and encourage. • My neighbour knocked on my door at 2:30am this morning; can you believe that? 2:30am! Lucky for him I was still up playing my bagpipes. • I sat on the train this morning opposite a stunning Thai girl. I kept thinking to myself, please don't get an erection, please don't get an erection - but she did • Paddy says "Mick, I'm thinking of buying a Labrador.""B'Jasus," says Mick,” have you seen how many of their owners go blind" • Man calls 000 and says "I think my wife is dead” The operator says how do you know? He says "The sex is the same but the ironing is building up!” • I was in bed with a blind girl last night and she said that I had the biggest p*nis she had ever laid her hands on. I said "You're pulling my leg" • I saw a poor old lady fall over today on the ice!! At least I presume she was poor - she only had $5.00 in her purse. • My girlfriend thinks that I'm a stalker. Well, she's not exactly my girlfriend yet. • I was explaining to my wife last night that when you die you get reincarnated but must come back as a different creature. She said she would like to come back as a cow. I said you’re obviously not listening. • The wife has been missing a week now. Police said to prepare for the worst. So I have been to the charity shop to get all her clothes back.

I agree with the sentiment - but you also have to add that even though you might know what the worst loss is in the past - you must also be aware that while this gives you a measure, your worst loss is yet to come using the system..... in other words that worst loss figure is there to be broken!

there are plenty of winning strategies around, its the application of them that gets sold by hedge funds and trading firms. ......hedge funds make their money via leverage - leverage of using other peoples money and applying a strategy....sometimes this strategy works sometimes it does not. ....trading firms get their leverage using other people (ie; many traders bums on seats) and either applying a lot of strategies, or the same strategy over many markets. If they sat on their own and applied the same strategy then their returns on a small amount of money does not compare to trading and leveraging up either other peoples money or other traders. both really only get paid and make big money via performance. Newsletters, brokers and sellers of strategies only make their money via recommendations and not the application of them..... and there is a massive massive MASSIVE difference between having a strategy that even though it may be successful, and running that strategy as a business.

yes....like anything you have to learn it and there is a lot of information there. they do offer paper trading accounts on request and they have lots of checks and alerts you can turn on to stop you from having fat finger typo errors. I dont trade lot of option contracts now, but as an ex market maker who did use electronic systems theirs is very good - it was derived from or works in conjunction with Timberhill the options market maker as they are owned by IB.

ooohhh. just as one little extra to throw in the mix..... democracy is not freedom. (especially when you only have a choice of tyrants and no personal freedoms from those tyrants to vote for)

surely in day trading this is an attempt to circumnavigate that by speeding things up, plus context (I guess my version on regime change) is everything, as nothing works all the time.....often the edge people look for is just that learning to sit and wait is a good thing But it can work for others, and my guess is that too often people either dont find a workable plan because they dont look, OR dont find a workable plan that they can live with that suits their personality, OR as it seems maybe in your case for where this might be heading require more that just a working plan to satisfy themselves? Lets see where we go..

yes - but past performance is no guarantee of future performance.