SIUYA

unfortunately in the share market this is usually associated with Insider trading or market leaks, and you can see it on many, many daily charts as well just before good news often....volume spikes or unusual trading before the news...rumours have a way of leaking It seems bad news is rarely leaked - maybe as most participants are long only in the share market.

two points of note Cory - print out this quote of yours - quality not quantity is important (unless you have a built in edge like a market maker/HFT front runner.) You can have all the patience int he world and no one is forcing you to trade - just go for the quality fruit. You cant loose money not being in the market, but you are more likely to in a crappy marginal trade 2 - Fib retracements can definitely help here. They can give you that extra patience..... Interestingly I have found I dont use fibs very often for taking profits - as I like to try and let things run (though I am aware of them, I find them distracting and tempting to take profits) BUT they do offer a guide to various entry levels TO WATCH, and when certain things happen there (or with enough experience you might get good at pre-empting them) they can help with areas to watch for ENTRIES. Now when it comes to Fibs - much like trend lines they are a very personal thing, so think about what you are trying to acheive out of this IN CONJUNCTION with what you know.

zdo - as an outsider - (ie; not from the US), I think when you look beyond the politics, as too much of it muddled with ideology and political grandstanding this comment is the key. Too much blame on Obama, or the republicans etc; when this has had a long history from all sides. Its simple, you dont fix a debt problem with more debt. The other day I went to a conference and it was bullish the US and two interesting stats came up - 1 - the inefficiencies of the US health care (note inefficiencies not absolute expense or who the money is spent on - in other words too much is spent poorly) compared to other countries, and 2 - the low low REAL tax rates paid by certain people in the US (and this really covers people who can structure themselves to avoid paying it - ie the rich and corporations) It was fascinating to see that the US could solve a lot of its problems relatively easy if the political will was there.... So ...not to get into a debate about taxes, health care etc, it was more a point that neither party wants to get away from losing power or more the point they dont want to piss off their real customers, so they wont do what is required..... It seems that the US already has a super congress and has had it for a while - corporate America.....

while I am sure you can dig out stats, what broker is going to tell you that most of their clients fail. Plus there are various levels of failure.... is stopping failure due to - a realisation they dont have enough money to really make it worth while from a time and effort basis - a realisation that the biggest winner is the broker and their PL at best is breakeven after costs - a realisation that they dont have the effort energy or focus required - a realisation that its potentially a boring, lonely job for some people not every failure means a monetary loss, I have opened numerous accounts with brokers and closed them out as I did not like the broker, or moved countries, or found a cheaper broker.

i have also wondered this over the years and have generally ignored it because the mean is usually a moving number as well - so the mean can actually move to where you bought or sold it rather than the price reverting back to the mean. Plus its another personal measure. I dont trade this way, but the closest I have seen someone incorporate this successfully is in two ways - bollinger bands using it as a level to reduce positions or exit them at extreme (by their measure) excursions from the previous price levels, and I have seen some others that use it as an entry zone for trend following and trying to time reversals in a trend back to a MA (similar to Option timers project here on TL) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project-25.html

and in much the same way a car makes you lazy..... I'm sorry the car made me do it, the computer made me lazy, blame the computer. There is a theme here xioxxio, and dont worry I am not being judgemental or picky or argumentative but not everyone views things this way. Hence why some people are able to apply full automation, others completely manual, while some try to get a mix in between. (plus Phantom - not everyone from Oz argues, its just we have a healthy (or used to) have a healthy culture of dissent which is healthy so long as its kept civil)

On reading a lot of posts about the psychology of trading, the struggle between full automation and discretionary trading and the arguments between teaching trading v actually doing it, it seems that the majority are in agreement that there is a certain "art" to trading that can either not be taught or can only be learnt through direct experience. Additionally while the basis for a lot of the problems traders face are similar the solutions seems to be unique to the individual. With that prelude I thought a thread welcoming people to post their personal tricks of the trade so to speak. These tricks maybe things designed to overcome a fear, a hesitation or a recurring problem. They may be tricks designed to be a time saver, a money saver, or to eliminate a boring and tedious yet crucial task. They maybe merely what works for you in a particular situation. They might help discipline or focus, or might help eliminate distractions. They maybe be something you use everyday but it just developed and you often dont know you are doing it, or implemented it years ago and dont really consider it a quick tip for others, but it might not be so obvious to them unless its mentioned. Even for automated traders, they must have quick tips, time savers, data management tips, mental tips to keep the systems working, so it does not have to be just for discretionary traders I for one seem to always be coming up with variations of them, or things that work in certain circumstances - sometimes I stray and these help get me back on line. ******************* While I enjoy a good discussion, as these are entirely personal, there is clearly no right or wrong in any of these and are what works for each and everyone of us in order to either succeed as a trader, improve as a trader or open new doors of opportunity in trading. Remember these are meant to be tips - not full analysis discussions. What will work for you may seem insane or a little nutty to others - hence the requirement for artistic licence. (on that note, while I am sure questions will be asked ....if you feel the need to name call, abuse, think someone is bonkers and you have this overwhelming urge to let them know then while you have every right to do so, however in a thread such as this which is completely subjective it probably explains a lot about yourself that might require professional help....so keep it nice and arty with expressions of thats so fabulous darling, marvelous, completely insane but I love it!, the boys a genius I must have it on my wall) *********************** On that note a few examples from me to start.... 1....dont watch a PL, or risk or reward or other numbers in dollars and cents. Watch it in terms of percentages. This makes everything a relative value from pips, to dollars, to risk of equity, to costs of doing business. It focuses the mind on whats important and eliminates the desire to then convert those dollars into what they can buy in the real world which can cause problems in taking profits too early to lock in what the trader imagines they can buy, to not taking losses as they thought of what they no longer can buy. 2...three times a charm.....when I am looking at a breakout of something, I use this trick to make me wait and have patience. Often I find the first time something tries to break it fails, or it becomes merely and alert that something is going to happen. The second time, I might take it depending on the context, the third time - I am a complete idiot if if dont go with it. How often do we take the first break, get chopped out, make a little on the second, but then dont take the the third. (completely discretionary but this little mantra works for me when I am feeling like i have twitchy fingers to get into a trade) 3....While I dont do any fundamental analysis, I do read the papers etc. Before I do any analysis in the morning of the charts, I dont read these. If anything I only look at what the major indicides did overnight, and what the moves were....then I look at the charts, then I read the headlines - it allows my train of thought to focus first on what the market is doing and what I am seeing, before some journalist or broker poisons my mind with an opinion.

xioxxio - bit harsh to say automated trading makes you lazy...thats the point of it to avoid the issues of manual trading - a bit like saying a car makes you lazy - when in reality only you can make yourself lazy - while I agree with most of your sentiments for the manual trader you need to be on top of it and the context of what is happening can certainly provide extra inputs on a continual basis.....however I have to agree with eqsys on the advantages of auto trading.... yet at the same time eqsys - just because they are getting a percentage does not mean they are not trading with their own money - once they make a dollar, a percentage of that is their own money. I started this way and I felt the pain of loosing just as much as I do now - the difference is with someone else's backing you generally have less admin hassles, more resources and a bigger book. Plus while we know that there are systems that do make money autotrading - many struggle to get this far.....so eqsys maybe you are one of the lucky few so far after a lot of time and effort. I guess I am really interested in this subject and dont want to see it drive off into a slagging match from either side of the fence...please so now we can all agree that there are advantages to and disadvantages to both - how do we get the best out of both of them!

Interesting that the new world order and the one world government come from different spectrum's of the political/economic sphere, and yet really are about the concentration of power. I think Bob Brown showed his real agenda is not about the environment but about the capitalist system and power (and yes I do understand the arguments about having to change the very nature of the economic system to protect the environment.) What ever happened to the green motto of think globally act locally - maybe it has progressed to act locally as we will think globally for you and you will do what you are told. (has a familiar ring to it) history shows us an extremist and an ideologically zealous person regardless of their persuasion ultimately leads down the same path and the debate between weather or not democracy works best when everyone decides or just some elitist group democratically decides for us continues on in a different guise. and MM - alien invaders.....I figure it will be a virus or bacteria that will ultimately win the day.

Very topical for me - as I am a very process driven discretionary trader that has been trying to automate parts of the process...some parts sucessfully, others not so. Using simple tests I have found that while certain things work very successfully, its those times that they dont work which is what we are trying to avoid as traders. As a very simple example: MA crossovers work, but why take shorts after a market has fallen for a few days and is hitting support and is likely to consolidate and chop around....this is when the chop depletes the PL sufficiently to make them not work......and unfortunately the binary nature of the computer just applies them all the time. So while you can possibly automate other levels into a program, and it has been pointed out that the permutations and combinations then start to become untenable, I certainly dont have the programming skills to apply the context I have learnt over the years that my brain can seem to do naturally. The best example to explain this I have seen is that you dont need to explain the rules of physics and gravity to teach a 5 year old to ride a bike and balance, but try getting a computer to do it is a whole other story. All I can do is try and automate the processes to help my decisions, or allow more markets to be traded..... however..... the approach I am adopting is to use my brain for context, and the computer for the entries, and possibly the exits. (I dont like automated exits too much as they seem to get butchered by the bots, and I dont have problems taking losses) So much like a market maker, I am prepared to be given a trade and after that I work out how to manage it.....the context part comes in knowing when to turn on and off the automation. My stumbling issue at present is finding a system that I like enough to be able to satisfy the needs of 1...being stable and reliable enough, I dont want to be trading 24 hours in case the system goes berko 2...easily worked - learning C++ etc is an option, easy language is easier but again other issues arise, as Tams said a lot of simple logical stuff can be programmed, its the rest I cant do, and often it seems cannot be done...eg; getting a system to pyramid, and at the same time move stops to BE for each new trade, but at the same time maintain different stops for different entries and move them to BE at different times....it can get complicated, but manually its much easier. 3....compatible with different markets and data feeds (many systems work great just for FX and not for equities) and I dont really want to have multiple systems with multiple problems. 4....able to manage the discretionary part with the auto trading part (a lot of systems seem to fall down here as the overrides a difficult or fraught with problems) 5....then there is the whole portfolio approach issues...I am not interested in auto trading one instrument ...this is where I see the biggest issues. 6...reliable data management and other such issues - do you know how many errors creep into data, and how long you can be stuck trying to work out where they occur and how to fix them.. You dont want to be spending hours each day fart arsing around on this. 7....having compatible broker systems that can then manage the open positions, and can hook up to the trading and charting system, has reliable accurate accounts (needed when trading many instruments) that is not too expensive or dodgy. Many systems cant even get data into excel in an easy format, try scanning, try getting historical data points for 500 stocks that is reliable.....they are getting there, but getting systems to talk to each other is important So far most systems seem to offer 80% of these, but its the last 20% that causes the problems, but I know it has come a long way in the last 5-10 years as well and is continually improving....but to date I am still relying mostly on manual discretionary trading Many market making firms and other HFT systems have more IT staff than traders and the IT teams work on specific issues such as data, speed, algorithms, risk management, so how would I expect to be able to get a great systems as a retail trader that can compete with these guys.... I dont, and hence the work around of trying to combine manual and automatic trading. This is a bit of a rant, as I have a hangover and seem to get close but no cigar on a lot of things with a system, but then it falls over...maybe I am asking too much - most likely but if you dont ask you dont receive!

comment as requested ---- you only did one thing wrong, and you know what it is and you know why you did it. Yet you are questioning the wrong part of the process. You went early (nothing wrong in that, at least you are guaranteed to not miss a trade), This anxiety of hanging on while it chops is normal and natural - so nothing wrong with that again You took the trade off as a result of this natural anxiety - understandably so.....BUT here is where you went wrong IMHO. "When price spiked down on 27th July, I thought it had run too far - too quickly" So the price is moving in your direction, you were right, you wanted to get on the trend and let it run, you had done the hard yards, all you had to do was not think and sit on your hands.....:crap: I use them and I hate that I do, but the words and thoughts ---, too quickly, overbought, oversold, over done, its due for a reversal are largely meaningless..... Point is - dont focus on making a better entry, as while yes it might have been better to have waited and had a better timed entry....you only know this through hindsight, the issue here and IMHO the mistake was in the premature exit based on trying to eliminate anxiety after the worst part of the anxiety had passed....its like locking the barn door after the horse has bolted and feeling better about it.

I saw a great t-shirt at the beach today on it was written - ""everything you know is wrong"" I also reckon he could have written under it if he was a trader - ""So I assume I know nothing""

you are heading in the right track, and there is no real right or wrong regards your stop loss, and the choice of running positions or not. You need to pick something that makes sense to you and your strategy, you can follow and be comfortable with, and that ultimately makes money. if you are buying breakouts and not comfortable with running things, and/or plan to be out at the end of the day anyway then having targets makes perfect sense.If you wish to have an automated trailing stop, or wish to take partial profits - or whatever, you have to just be comfortable with the different risk return trade off and associated trading results that evolve. This trade off is what you need to be comfortable with - can you watch profits disappear, are you happy to be chopped out more often as profits turn to losses...etc:? If not then targets will work for you. This is more important than the actual process you choose, because if you cant stick to it its pointless anyways. (example- the other day I was shorting the ASX SPI contract (Australian equity futures contract) my process has been to take smaller profits on it at present as while I am bearish I dont wish to get caught with giving profits back when whipsaws occur. So naturally I am disappointed when I take profits after 10 ticks and it falls another 20....but so what as my plan is to take those ten and wait for the next rally to short again. For me at present (and this does change as my view on the market might also change) the pain/anguish/disappointment/frustration of missing the bigger moves is less than the pain/anguish/disappointment/frustration of getting whipsawed.)

do you know the best way to succeed as a trader? Jump on the bandwagon

IMHO - I think this is the sensible approach, however most people do the opposite, which is throw themselves in and blow up or loose money and then search out a plan and a method and then try and understand what to do, it might explain a lot. Would you try and practice the law or surgery without studying for years the basics....? I think this then becomes the next step for a lot of traders after they realise that while it seems simple, it is in fact simple with an evil twist. Being quitely confident is probably the wrong approach as the confidence usually comes from other aspects of ones previous life and the assumptions of other areas of success. Where as when it comes to trading you virtually need to say right from the start and then almost every day - I know nothing, everything I am thinking and deciding is possibly wrong and after that you are open to possibilities (a bit extreme maybe but i think its better than thinking I know what i am doing only to be proven wrong a lot of the time). This I guess means you are constantly trying to call on un tapped resources (and possibly previously unbeknownst resources) but with an open mind. (This might be the zen, inner being hocus pocus, secret, voodoo, whatever people finds works for them is cool) BUT...before all this, rather than analyzing fears, as most of these actually only develop after trading, beginners should work out what it is trading will give them, why they are doing it and understand the lies and marketing spiel from sellers of systems etc; implant a false reality of dreams and idealistic trader fantasies....this is what needs to be eliminated from the mind and then once dealing with reality, a lot of the fears dont actually cause a problem or exist, or even manifest themselves. (one of the big fears that get implanted is that if these other guys are making money, playing with the big boys and they say its easy - why cant i do it - so you search for another easy fix.....what other industry charges so much and delivers so little of reality?) after the circular journey above do we then often get back to where we started - but with a whole encyclopedia of knowledge that is purely subjective and changeable - and accepting that it is changeable is important, and that there is no one way or 100% sure way of doing things correctly. Once you let go, you dont really think in terms of fears etc, I think you just do it - that whole subconscious, conscious thing....

Absolutely they can be two different persons within the one shell.......it happens all the time in other real life situations. The upstanding business man who skims from his clients, the professional soldier who seems emotionally in control in high pressure situations but cant handle day to day life, the politician who stands firm on high moral values who visits prostitutes and snorts coke off their butts in their spare time... extreme maybe, but I think this has a lot to do with the money narrative Rande talks about and then a recent post by nHallet on visualization...... Often we see ourselves as a struggling trader and like the idea of us against the world.....and so it becomes such. We want sympathy for our losses, and yet brag abuout being a big trader. Who has seen adds for retail investors teasing them to play with the big boys..... Or we feel there is less pressure managing other peoples money because ultimately its not yours, you were only followoing a mandate, so long as you out perform a benchmark its all right....etc. There are lots of other scenarios, and thats why its important to not only work out who you are, but what you want to get out of the markets, what you perceive your image to others to be, and also to yourself.....how often have people been embarassed to say they are a trader/speculator in front of others??? and so they may secretly want parts of being a trader and are afraid of other parts. In changing enough about themselves usually is not enough unless its the right things in the first place.....and maybe its not about even facing up to the fact that there are certain aspects of being a trader that are not great.

I could not work out how to get the pictures showing, so I dumped them in word..... very topical for a male dominated industry such as trading Why men die earlier than women.docx

Hi Phantom, Do or Die, Maelstrom - anyone else..... I think a thread is judged by its participation, question asking and longetivity more than the number of thanks and likes it receives, and for that you guys do well.....the work you all do, and any general participant to most threads adds to the discussion - as this is a discussion website, not a blog for individual processes. Even the agitators have their place. A bunch of thanks and likes is probably less educational than a good discussion and thought provoking Q and A session that we all learn from - give thanks on a website a value and they become worth more than just a passing repetitive gesture thankyou.....imagine if every post had many of them, they would be ignored. Dont forget Phantom, if you sold it and gave it a value you might seemingly be more appreciated than not giving it a value and giving it away for free - the strange vagaries of humans and their assignment of value when it comes to pricing.

why is he a fool.........?

a guy in an office I used to work in used to stand up with raised arms when a big trade went his way - after a while he forced us/begged us to make him close all his positions when he did this - he knew his overconfidence would cause him losses in the near future and history showed his exuberance was a clear sign losses were coming......so it was stop, close positions. step back and breathe again. and yet.....there is an argument for trading bigger as you become more confident and are seeing the swings in the market clearly. I guess there is that fine line between confidence and cockiness, and it manifests itself in a variety of ways and is different for different people. Just another thing to test us

nice little assessment robert. Much the same as when looking at larger funds and comparing them - things like the sharp and sortino ratios (among other things) provide some insight allowing better comparisons.

Thanks Tams - Ted - apart from TL, one of the more interesting places on the world wide algorithm. Reality is people have been doing this in one form or another since they started making tools. Think of what a road, rail way line, expanding city is. When it comes to trading - read Soros and his relfexivity theories and see how they fit pretty well with algos. Worst part is that as it was touched on - a lot of the time, we have no idea how these work and their impact, and I think many of the programmers probably are in much the same boat Skynet is here already - think doomsday cults - its just that there are enough checks and balances to keep things in place, when the algos become the checks and balances, or determines we dont need them, then I guess it will be too late. then evolution/mother nature will take over and the giant algorithms of the universe will prevail and we will be a mere blip in history......:missy:

they are completely different.... a channel of moving averages might look related as well. and off course they all are as they source the same data, but similar looking means not much. Rosanne Bar and Heidi Klum are similar looking - but what a difference a difference makes. suggest you check out http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project.html for a good beginners ideas about trending strategies.

this exists - most threads that degrade are then often restablished and the fool is often shown to be the fool or ousted. Then there is the ignore button. Unfortunately Tradewinds this is a public forum, and while I am sure many dont necessarily mean to be provocative, a lot of context is lost through the written word that we have to often be super sensitive about and almost apologetic to the extreme. What you propose is tough to instigate and raises questions - who is a peer, who reviews, how is a review conducted, what rules do people need to apply/comply by. Personally I prefer an open self regulated forum where polite dissent is encouraged. Dont forget that this is an international forum - there is a lot of missed humour and sublte nuances missed that one person thinks is normal while another deems not appropriate. While I agree the name calling is crap to read and does show someone who constantly does it is the fool - hit the ignore button, a wise man should be happy to have his thoughts provoked and should be encouraged to provoke others in discussion. Once they start the name calling on a consistent basis - especially to defend their position, it tells you they probably cant emotionally control them selves - and if they cant do that on an open forum with anonymous participants and only pride at stake - do you reckon they can do that in the market with real money at stake - ignore.

this is the important element in tracking volatility. (sorry if there was any misunderstanding, I was not meaning to come across as provacative, more thought provoking as volatility is often misused and taken out of context and more often becomes part of the vernacular without such a discussion as this pointing out some crucial context elements)