SIUYA

Why - in my opinion, the market will swing this way...thats all. The view is Germany is a stronger economic nation than the UK. Now a rise in the DM might be excessive enough to then negate this....but initially this might be how it goes. What will be interesting is which countries also close their borders, otherwise watch the rush of people to get out of their own countries - its not great coming from Greece (say) to the UK to work for 5 GBP and hour, but it that is suddnely worth a lot more - people may be more incentivised to move. Thats also why I think the Eurozone members realise they have to do as much as they can to not let it fail. However, if the EUR fails and the old currencies are brought back, this is my initial opinion....but I try not to trade off those unless the prices confirm it

it will get sold aff against d currency of the fudderland which vill rise agin

Damngernmouse - in answer to your question, my answer is in my post.... "I assume they are not random (as I dont believe that each and every subsequent price point is independent from those that have preceded it. So it is not a casino)"....its an assumption, not an opinion. I leave those to the brokers Even with studies showing that markets are random and you cannot outperform an index (or what ever benchmark you desire) a lot of this is seems to be measured from a long only, all invested no discretion attached point of view.....one of the issues with all back testing. There is also a difference in many of these studies between trading and investing. I also think that there is a separate question of --- Is the market price action random, or do managers/traders returns reverse to the mean ...which may be the benchmark to whatever index they have tied themselves to, and hence it is often thought that markets are therefor random and cannot be outperformed. if you are bench marking to the S&P and using this as a measure to compare hedgefunds then you will get pretty poor information for those funds that do trade other instruments. In which case you could be proven wrong. For many periods certain hedge funds massively under performed the S&P.....mainly as they traded other instruments, styles or strategies. To be fair you do need to compare apples with apples etc otherwise you can get distorted information. Not everyone who invests in hedgefunds does so to hedge their "main investment vehicle of long equities."

a lot will depend on what you are trying to pull out of the market. As first you need to know why you are trying to trade the pull back..... largely as one persons pullback is an other persons break out. Trading pullbacks in an established trend is clearly of a higher probability trade that the trend will continue - the nature of a trend, but the problem is that of measuring the pullback. So what is the context of why you are trying to trade a pullback. there is only one thing for certain......if you wait for a pullback you will capture every loss when that pullback fails, and yet you will miss some of the winners as the pullback does not pullback far enough, or never comes. Its a trade off.

Random question of the day - why is it many people will involve themselves in a discussion - get all heated up and distracted from the original question and yet at the same time not provide a working definition for which the discussion can revolve around.? How do I know the markets aren't random? I dont - but I dont care ....either way. I assume they are not random (as I dont believe that each and every subsequent price point is independent from those that have preceded it. So it is not a casino) All I need to know is how can I profit out of the market fluctuations regardless of whether those fluctuations are random or not.

CFRN - glass - thats why there was the mention of Pepsi , but each to their own. and when it comes to grudges - I am Australian - so we have our own grudges against the Brits (setting up a slave colony under the guise of it being a convict settlement - the nerve! - and she is still our Queen, heavens forbid - where will it stop. Join the far que and get in line) :haha: The Brits have there grudges against everyone - including themselves, mainly probably because the UK is largely a nation of immigrants from France and the old lost empire bit..... (if that offends anyone....sit back relax, breathe in, ask yourself why its offensive and then look up the meaning of the word joke) Sorry, do or die about possibly getting off thread....and yet at the same time it is topical as these are the underlying subliminal beliefs we may/may not have. The other thing I also thought to mention is do you have any thoughts on the subliminal effect tv channels like Bloomberg, CNN etc have? Personally I think they distract, almost precisely because of the subliminal effect they have on us.,,,, and what about the old Quotron (i think it was called the emotionless voice messager that Victor Neiderhoffer used in the office - the elimination of the subliminal effects of emotion is also interesting.

found this article - a bit of fluff, but still seems similar ... Making most of mind over matter | Mindfulness for business owners

all ways interesting.....but have not tried it.(coca-cola is better than pepsi) The wikipedia submission seems to imply it is largely ineffective, and for me it seems that (gee I feel like a coke right now) as traders rather than a subliminal message that pops up - without you really knowing (like coke is better than the others) can actually detract from what you are seeing - it might cause more confusing brain thoughts - generally I would prefer the in your face - buy here - sell here. Thats my personal preference (for coke) Otherwise I think the general mood, not associated with the market thoughts (because coke makes you happy) could be advantageous -messages such as ---- be positive, focus on cutting stops, let it ride..... those messages might have more impact. Anyway thats my two cents.......gee I feel thirsty now (thats it buy coke it will improve your trading)

I dont use those systems - so no comment. I would say one thing - when starting - save your money for trading - there is a lot of information for free on the net - you just need to do the homework. Once you are versed in something and might like to find out more about it then maybe spend some money, expand your horizons and book shelves into those books many recommend. Paying money for a quick fix usually wont work. Otherwise, the only other thing you will learn about the markets is that it is entirely up to YOU, in terms of what work you will do, what strategy suits you, how much time, effort and energy you wish to put into it, and then how you can react, adapt to and cope with the many trade offs that trading of any strategy puts in front of you.

click on the persons name and a sub menu with it will come up

you dont make any sense nor seem to understand what happens in the markets, nor what Lloyd was saying in the video.... so I doubt you will be draining any ones accounts

yes i did watch the video did you? you clearly have no idea about how markets and market makers work or did not listen....he did not say where the market was.... he said if a producer could sell it forward at 80 (ie if its trading there) the project becomes viable but at 40 it was not. So guess what no one will give them financing unless they can lock in the price at $80. To do that you need to have people like GS who will help facilitate the liquidity and it needs to be trading there or at least the forward does. and after your comment to MM - you confirmed it.

No. They are just another participant. Do you think they know about every trade in the market, every participant, every rationale for why others might be trading? They "might" be able to amalgamate enough order flow in certain instruments to have a good enough insight to be able to front run orders, but I am slightly confused as to what your point is regards the above comment. Your example about oil implies a slight conspiracy mentality which I think might be clouding your judgement.... or at least a misunderstanding of the last three minutes of the video I think you will find there are very few actual traders at firms like goldmans (they do exist) but most of them are trade clippers, market makers, brokers and other types of middle men.

I agree with Spidey, but you have to check exactly what it is you are buying. Often with some brokers you are effectively spread betting or using a cfd and they will report the market prices.....the only way is to check. Sometimes, the type of account you have with the same institution might be slightly different as well.

post number 69 for Tams and the where's Wall street picture - now thats ironic

if you believe GS they are a market maker. Goggle Blankfein market maker.....you will get this sort of response ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein defended the firm during an interview on "The Charlie Rose Show" Friday. Asked by Rose whether Goldman investment advisers had ever bought securities from the firm, sold them to clients, and then bet against those same securities, Blankfein paused. And after a solid six seconds of silence, sought to explain that Goldman's role as a "market maker." "We're like a machine, that lets people buy and sell what the want to buy and sell" Blankfein said. "That's not the advisory business. That's just a facility for market making." Blankfein argued that there's no problem in selling clients a security that Goldman will then bet against, because that's the nature of the market. "By the way, we would'nt even know," Blankfein said of the conflicting market positions.

you are correct Ole. Many of those studies find that MA by themselves are not that reliable. But dont forget there are a lot of 'subjective' parameters that go into what to study in those studies. For someone to cover all the parameters, all the statistics, all of the time for all the instruments in a study - thats probably statistically impossible. Plus often these things are studied not from a trading point of view but from an investors benchmark view. Nothing works all the time, but it does not means it can not work.

A man was walking down the street when he was accosted by a particularly dirty and shabby-looking homeless man who asked him for a couple of dollars for dinner. The man took out his wallet, extracted ten dollars and asked, "If I give you this money, will you buy some beer with it instead of dinner?" "No, I had to stop drinking years ago," the homeless man replied. "Will you use it to go fishing instead of buying food?" the man asked. "No, I don't waste time fishing," the homeless man said. "I need to spend all my time trying to stay alive." "Will you spend this on greens' fees at a golf course instead of food?" the man asked. "Are you NUTS!" replied the homeless man. "I haven't played golf in 20 years!" "Will you spend the money on a woman in the red light district instead of food?" the man asked. "What disease would I get for ten lousy bucks?" exclaimed the homeless man. "Well," said the man, "I'm not going to give you the money. Instead, I'm going to take you home for a terrific dinner cooked by my wife." The homeless man was astounded. "Won't your wife be furious with you for doing that? I know I'm dirty and I probably smell pretty disgusting." The man replied, "That's okay. It's important for her to see what a man looks like after he has given up beer, fishing, golf and sex."

in an attempt to help... Software... You seem to have this covered and if it is a long term project then learning any language will not be a problem. If going down this route then others are better qualified to answer. For me, I have always used excel for a few reasons - its flexibility, ease of use (I use a lot of macros and so am self taught vba), the massive number of users worldwide and help, cost, and the only real downside i see is its speed and for really big database files it is not ideal. Basically this all boils down to what suits you and what you like. Data... This is the biggest nightmare IMO. Mainly because of cost, accuracy and details both in terms of instruments and depth of what you need. Ideally tick data is the basis for everything and so the best, however it is clearly overkill if not needed. One issue with data is the on going maintenance and getting it into formats that are usable and relevant. Plus the accuracy often leaves a lot to be desired. There are many data vendors and they vary in cost and accuracy, and there are probably only about 5 of note- the same names always come up. Most will determin if you just need a download, or live continual data going forward....for back testing, i suggest you go the simplest cheapest option, get a download and then build your system - you can add to it later. Additionally trading futures you have the issues of continuous contracts - there are some threads about building those, here and elsewhere......a real pain (I will try and dig up a file I had on it, but I think it has been loaded here on TL) Data Organisaton See Q2....a lot will depend on how they give you the data and how big it is. For me I use text files for the same reasons I use Excel....but I think there are probably more efficient/faster ways of doing it. Plus they can usually interact with most other systems. As part of building a back tester you do need to have two other things of note - how to analyse the data, and how to store and compare the results of the test. Again Excel is simple and easiest. For all of this, work out a plan of what you want, where you want to get to and what is not relevant - it will save you a lot of time. There are plenty of good ready built systems out there that will save you a lot of time and effort - multicharts, NT, Siera Chart, Tradestation etc etc; Currently I prefer Sierra chart. So again dont replicate what has already been done. (I think if you really get detailed you will need to build your own) Often these system have a lot but not quite enough.... hope this helps.

another article re trying to define HFT and the issues involved. Scary if they start lumping HFT and algorithmic trading - even us fools know they are different. a subset maybe - but different. Europe

Connect.....here is your first mismatch. You say you need more military discipline, more confidence etc; etc; Then you ask for a comment on the settings you are using. It is not the settings. you need more internal discipline (not military discipline) and a better understanding of how you react to the markets. Merely changing settings will not help. If you wish to know the best settings to use, understand what you are trying to get from using those indicators and work out or test which numbers work best for you. Dont fall into the trap....and it is a trap of avoiding your issue by focusing on a different problem. (take this as a helpful rather than critical comment )

Tams is right. There are also free tutorials from MarkPlex dot com

before any discussions turn to arguments.....a simple Wikipedia search shows DELTA has many meanings...... (my personal choice when discussing finance is the second one) Mathematics (ε, δ)-definition of limit Delta (finance), a first order derivative of an option pricing formula versus the underlying spot price Delta method, a method for approximating the distribution of a function of a random variable Δ, or difference operator Δ, or modular discriminant Δ, or symmetric difference Δ, a change of state between two before and after state schemas in the Z notation a classification in the arithmetical hierarchy a classification in the analytical hierarchy a classification in the polynomial hierarchy , an inverted delta representing del, a vector differential operator Delta connective, a unary connective in t-norm fuzzy logics δij, the Kronecker delta function δ(x − y), the Dirac delta function So, as this could lead to an interesting discussion (hence my desire for conciliation), maybe a few diagrams, and clearer explanations may make things easier.

try googling "quant finance forum" or try " nuclear phynance" and who knows maybe more than 10% may only be related to trading Be pre-warned though - these guys are maths geeks. (not there is anything wrong with that), and they will argue over it all day. There is some great info there - it just looks at the world differently to many here, and a lot has to do with arbitrage, options, swaps, and models for portfolio.s as a prelude into asking questions this is what you might get..... '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' Hi Looking for some qualified opinion/advice on choosing a automated trading platform. It should link to IB's API (most do I think) and go beyond to common technical analysis vodoo. All considered that I can't programm at all. I want to be able to create my own math based technical indicators and apply more complex models. Those popular tradestation/multicharts seem very easy to build systems, but also seem limited to purely classical technical analysis and don't allow flexibility? Is this observation correct? Does this Easylanguage allow the creation of my own quantitative indicators or to put it in other words where can I type in my formulas?? Checked out Matlab, seems great but how hard is it to learn and also it seems much longer to build/test strategies then in those technical analysis platforms?? Thx and appreciate any qualified feedback!! ANSWER....... Posted: 2011-10-26 00:54 Matlab and hard in the same sentence. I think you've stumbled into the wrong forum... ANSWER............ Posted: 2011-10-26 10:23 Dood, better return to your books. This world outside ain't made for you... ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' so unless you love your maths, read but be wary of the locals

well done - if you only traded once for 110 pips in a range of about 130....multiple trades maybe different but still well done.... however .... how is going with the trend more unprecise? I am sorry - but if you can find the soft spots - the high prob turning points - who cares how (there are many ways to do it) and are happy to let things run -, then what you say does not make much sense. I ask as it goes against prevailing wisdom - plus what works for me,- and the fact that you let things run when you say you are better at picking turning points would suggest that it would make more sense to pick those turning points that give you the greatest possible gains would it not? Maybe trading around with taking profits and re-entering can add to that, but how is going with the trend more unprecise? thanks. (of course I am assuming you are going long the EURUSD (6.58 UK time 1.58 EST time appears to be the low for the day--- and I believe that its in a downtrend of late)