SIUYA

what about those who have a fear of driving at all? So much so that they actually are such bad drivers when they do it they crash, or there are those that have no fear....they usually have the highest crash statistics (young men aged 16-26 say) Or those that do think they drive defensively but in reality have just been driving badly for 40 years. While I agree a lot of what is said maybe tripe, (or maybe the way its written is obtuse) I also think that there is nothing wrong with accepting others have varying views and possibly applying probabbility to these views still accepts them, with a hint of - not for me, but I can see how for some it is needed.Much as you might for a trade. Not everybody sees the markets the same, some have different issues for their personalities. So while the market is a dangerous place, you could also say, some markets are dangerous for some people. (bull markets wipe out bears, bear markets wipe out mean reversion types etc;) Which is why your second point is such a good one and also I guess why I might sound like I am defending Rande (which by the way I am not- I am defending his right to teach and the idea that his ideas might be worth more than just dismissing out of hand - weather he is any good of not is a different matter) Hence I do feel its probably only valid after you have reached a certain level of skill or knowledge, and you cant progress for some reason. Sports people do it, top managers do it, why not traders? (not for newbies - and yet what about all those failed child spots prodigies as they did not have the mental mechanisms to survive and thrive - evolution perhaps) What happens when you reach a stage and have some mental block? It seems what you are describing is exactly that....someone developing techniques to step up levels, to improve themselves.....can you say it has not been because they have not adopted or changed their beliefs.....if I recall rightly a lot of those market wizards blew up initially and then changed their actions.....you generally only do that because you change your beliefs about something, or the way you viewed something. Other less successful traders on forums also mention the same things before they became successful. I do think a lot of it might be tripe and who wants old intestinal gut, but when prepared right anything can taste good and whose to say its not a delicacy to some. (plus the nipple and breast feeding sideline - whoaa ) (Mitsubishi - heading to NY then skiing in Colarado - so glasses yes, but the goggle type - they have just finally had some snow, and a dump expected this weekend. My risk aversion to tree skiing/boarding is certainly increasing as I get older - maybe Rande could offer some advice - or maybe I just have to accept I will heal less easily and its no longer worth the risk. Its always fingers crossed you come back in one piece no matter the amount of preparation )

Possibly techniques to effective put into practice the very often heard advice maybe? Or another reason could be that they hear the advice but dont know how to effectively put into practice maybe???? yes...but what where the results - I mean the real statistical results of that often quoted/mis quoted study..... I dont think EVERYBODY acted the same way. Some did to varying degrees..... and more importantly ""The social psychology of this century reveals a major lesson: often it is not so much the kind of person a man is as the kind of situation in which he finds himself that determines how he will act." –Stanley Milgram, 1974 so maybe people might need help to place themselves into the situation .....??? and maybe some people are naturally wired in particular ways??? Most shocking to many was that what was predicted was in fact far from what happened - particularly topical to trading for many.....and yet it also showed there were no certaintites- amazing what experiments in psychology and being fascinated in the human condition can actually show us Either way its not as black and white (bored before my holiday Mitsubishi) :crap:

goggle "uk student extradited" for more info

Tams - you could apply that picture to soooooo many situations. dodgy FX/spread better/CFD providers to their clients. Goldman sachs to their clients European bond issuers brilliant!

If my monkeys in the room develop the system that works and you build your billion dollar company around it I will be suing your ass for stealing my ideas rather than investing in it! (Mind you I need to make sure the hamsters playing blackjack in the corner and learning to circumnavigate the airducts of major corporations for espionage reasons and front running are kept happy otherwise the revolution of the 99% might bring me down.)

sounds you might be a little envious Rande was worked out a way to monetise something he is fascinated in......whats wrong with that? So glad you have all the answers....why not write the one and only definitive book on it and reveal it to the world..... and what then do you do for those that dont have the answers or find your answers dont work with/for them? I see by your actual thought out answers to the questions still never actually involved ever actually asking anybody for help, now there is nothing really wrong with that...... Guess this is just where we differ, I was taught early on, and its actually a good question to ask a lot of highly (not just very) successful people what one of the keys/secrets to their success is....it is not often "I did it myself, " or "if you want a job done - you do it yourself".....no in fact many say - "find someone who is smarter than you, with expertise in something you dont have and get them to do the job". maybe just maybe Rande is smarter than all of us and he gives his money to those that do and then does something that he enjoys and is fascinated by and actually gets to charge money for it......wow....who would have thought. (on many other things we might agree - especially when it comes the the UK and the welfare mentality that exists here, I could tell you a great con man story here where the police said "we cant do anything" (my partner was the victim I reported it and we had names, address, bank account details of the criminals) and so nothing happened and yet I received 3 phone calls asking if we wanted counseling over the trauma of being a victim of crime - after telling them I needed counselling for the fact that nothing was done they got the picture :helloooo: - so I know where you are coming from) Anyway - a new week beckons - I have said my fill -thanks for the fun Mitsubishi and dont forget as mother used to say - it never hurts to ask.

what debate..... and no chocolate bunny sorry as (and I will add a trading reference to help you with where I was going) 1....you clearly have enough money to buy your own as rather than getting a car repaired you try and buy another one (like many traders rather than repair what works and might just need to be repaired/improved they often go back to the showroom and purchase the newest greatest thing in the hope it might work better than what they have) 2....i am sure such things as cancer, MS, heart disease, diabetes could be cured with a good nights sleep. (too often people ignore the symptoms of something that only once it is too late do they take notice, much like trading and repeating the same mistakes going to bed to wake up and still have the same problems) 3....there is no such thing as a burglar proof house.....the question what do you do if it happens. (as in trading there are no certainties and its usually a question of what happens when, too often its assumed nothing will go wrong, but what happens if it does.) 4....unfortunately rather than using another sport/task/skill/process to understand, you put it in a basket and dismiss it. (I used golf, and I am sure it is like many sports and trading - 90% of it goes on in your head, (and maybe thats why you dont play golf??? , it is always interesting to see peoples responses to golf as often those that dont like it just say it, those who usually really hate it, and vilify it with a passion such as yours have often tried and failed at it.....) (I try and fail but I still really like it) Point is Mitsubishi - using anybody who has expertise in a certain area is worthwhile when and if you need them - to completely dismiss out of hand their worth and skills and then use your viewpoint in the world to rant is a rather interesting and blinkered way to see the world. Looking at the benefits v costs is a fair way to measure things but when you use biased slants to justify you pre concieved ideas is exactly why taking the blinkers off is an apt way to see things......you (or others) may or may not need help in this. (ps....for you its all BS anyways if I recall )

So Mitsubishi - forget all your ideas about slugs and bunnies and politics for a minute. (LOL).... can I ask a few simple questions.... who do you go to/what do you do if you need a car repaired? who do you go to/what do you do if you get sick and dont feel well? who do you go to/what do you do if you house is broken into? who do you go to/what do you do if your golf swing is not getting you the results you expect/want?

Sorry...but this is clearly just a matter of accounting perspective - a stop or an exit form a system is the same. it is the point at which the entry trade is exited....how are they different? maybe its just a matter of definition but it irks me a little when things are discussed this way. For me a loss is a loss is a loss - no matter why, how or when. This I would say is completely system dependent (aka Zdo) - change the take profits to no take profits and test over different periods and you will get vastly different results. Plus when you talk about the greater the drawdown, you may have more stops per wins, but the drawdown may or may not change. I think you are being too general here. Often depending on the system your aim might be to build as many units as possible and run them, and stopping out at break even for example may lessen the number of trades on when you have a winner. You might then expect a big open profits drawdown far in excess of your closed PL drawdown.....for many this is a crucial element of the system, if it can be traded, if they can trade it. yes...because records are meant to be broken the back tested drawdown is virtually guaranteed to be beaten at some stage, and the reality is they might stop the system at down 20% (I dont mean to do anything more than post discusssions to the thread as I think too many go down the path of thinking a backtest is more than what it actually is and that often the same system can be radically different based on very small variations in that.....and this is I hope as you mention a thread for discussing the value of backtesting.)

sorry Mitsubishi but for me to actually believe anything you say or for me to take you seriously I would have to take off my blinkers and see the world from your point of view rather than my own - regardless of any facts. , and then we both might be wrong. its always better to change the system from the inside rather than standing on the outside throwing rocks in.....plus then once you get your ideas/views established as the mainstream, then surprise surprise you then become the mainstream....what then. Personally - history repeats, nothing is new, it was not better back in the day, I want the freedom for the bunnies and the slugs to thrive - it creates opportunities when you take off the blinkers.

a good bunch of questions raised there predictor and as you say it will cause many varying responses of "this is right, this is wrong", which for I dont think your article deserves as its an interesting thought piece.....so as more food for thought. One big difference between varying tests is in what you are trying to achieve and for whom you are trying to do it. For many they test to be able to grow and compound returns - for clients, while as an individual trader you might have far more degrees of freedom in this respect. Also maybe I missed it, but there are big liquidity issues with the compounding around many tests - depending on sizes of accounts....not such an issue for small accounts of course. Clients dont pay you to not grow the account....one issue is that if you are too successful they take money, if you under perform they take money, if you sit on cash, they pull money when you are at your worst backtested expected drawdown just as its about to turn around etc;.... On the issue with stops.....you must have some sort of take profit, or exit level, or you could easily get into a position at the incorrect time and only do one trade, never to see the instrument trigger again....and this raises another issue with some testing - it can be argued that you can never do enough testing - is 10 years of data enough - 30, 50 years. Many systems work in certain markets and for some we have had bull markets for the last 30 years. diversifying systems and instruments it could be argued is the last real free edge available?? and it is precisely this that allows the compounding of returns..... eg; 10 instruments/strategies, year 1, 9 breakeven one makes 100% - funds under mgmt grow by 10% year 2, different 9 BE, one makes 100% - funds under mgmt grow by 10% from a base of 110%... etc; etc; IMHO...backtesting gives nothing more than a road map of what to expect in terms of return and cashflow movement assuming that the market conditions you tested in remain the same going forward. So I guess the big difference is that the assumption you make is not that the backtesting predicts future returns, but rather that the backtesting offers an insight into your predictions of future market behaviour.(you may be wrong) Hence another reason to have various non correlated (this is the crucial element) systems. Or alternatively as you suggest - just go for it and realise that luck in terms of timing and not skill is what pays.

why did many people smoke, why then did they all decide to them become anit smoking (apart from the law), why did the Nazis gain so much power, why would humans be interested in who is having which face lift today and who is sleeping with whom, why is a stock trading on a PE of 15 considered cheap one day, and when its trading at a PE of 8 it is considered expensive, why SMA and not EMA....etc; etc; as Tams said self fulfilling prophecy, and Predictor makes a very good point about pre computers.....plus for many its easy marketing as opposed to doing real research and going against the grain. You should ask those who use it and swear by it, or ask any broker why it works - as you have already found there is no real reason at a guess. (I once saw a so called expert say that as every one was watching a 20 day indicator he was watching a 21 day indicator......WHO CARES! For the good/bad trades you miss, there will bad/good trades you get - regardless.)

checked out the videos from post 1133 - nice to put a name to the legend I too have issues with ironing.

Gee Mitsubishi initially on reading this I thought yep you are on it - all those stupid fat lazy good for nothing in bred people who range from those that clean your house, build the roads, operate the schools, run the banks, the institutions in society right up to "everyone" should be demonised and cleaned up.....much like certain tyranical societies have done in the past and certain ideolgies at present and I am sure in the future would like to control everyone with their version of what is right. It seems you dont like those that look for excuses, nor do you like those that gamed the system as it stands....that makes it easy for you - everyone is an idiot Aren't you offering your own brand of sales pitched psychology here without offering any real practical solutions to help apart from maybe join your local "your'e all idiots - grumpy old men " group (YAI -GOM)??? My father is a part of this group - its depressing, as I dont see any positive inputs from such thoughts and while you may not need to see a psychologist I am sure these rants might make others think you do..... Either way.....you are free to choose ....would you like to take that freedom from others? Personally I blame the accountants for all of societies woes - off course after I blame myself every morning, but by the end of the day I know I am part of the solution and those sticking accountants are still out there causing mayhem and undermining society.

do you have a broker....they are most likely to help here.....or at least should be able to I remember trying to put together a similar list for a database years ago and found it difficult to get a simple easy to access list without having to pay for it or have access to bloomberg or similar. Alternatively it might be a matter of scrounging and piecing it together... sorry if this is not much help a quick google returned this which might help - http://dareminator.blogspot.com/200...r-industry.html

all narratives are true; some of them actually happened (from a letter to the editor of the economist about Religion and America, it is paraphrased, but I thought it could be applied very well to 1...how people see the market, 2....how people relate what they think they saw, 3....how people relate their trading expertise (especially some vendors - though not a dig against them - they are a necessary part of the machine) )

in keeping with the fun and food for thought to open the mind/discussion.... if a psychologist came to you claiming to do your accounts, fix your car, clean the house then you might ask questions, but if they said they might have techniques to help with mental issues (not the illness types) then surely they are best qualified. Again logically we might think that a psychologist that trades would be better than one that does not, however, have you heard the old saying "the best builders have the worst houses"......my guess is that might apply in the same way. I think any accountant/gardener/cleaner/psychologist that claims they can get you to make money in the markets is one to be wary of....however one that might offer some qualified advice/processes/ideas/training in their technical field of expertise that might actually benefit you, or how you conduct yourself might have some merit. Whether that is of any value to each individual is entirely up to that individual ...... I presently dont have a garden, but I do have a cleaner, and I often wish I had not taken my accountants advice.....to date I have not needed a pyschologist but I often suggest to my partner that she should see one.... So I guess logically - as per usual - each individual has to make the choice dependent on their circumstances for themselves.....unless of course the gardener offers extra benefits

LOL... and yet I guess this is a matter of degrees - I sway more to the point that someone with good techniques with skills over certain subjects can actually apply those skills to things they may no little about technically, but can see certain "mind blocking" / blinkered responses. In doing so they may offer advice on certain techniques - FOR WHICH THEY DO HAVE THE SKILLS......these can ideally be universally applied to many activities that require mental gymnastics. (assuming the educator is actually skillful in diagnosing the problem and able to help rectify or offer advice on fixing issues) In this way while the coaching input is only a part of the whole I dont think it necessarily should be dismissed without thought. That is all. I also think (this is the big proviso) that many coaches for trading, and many other professions/skills/sports is only really best applied AFTER many other skills have been achieved and it is road blocks hindering performance, or that extra leg up that is needed to enhance performance. So not necessarily for new players. Now back to that phone throwing practice! Eye on the screen use the shoulder, control the anger.

Can you answer that question in plain simple English? I am a skeptic but I also realise great coaches dont need to have played (whatever game), and they especially dont need to have played well. They might just be able to offer their expertise in their particular field to help some with mental roadblocks they may face - thats why there are sports psychologists... If Rande has seen a lot of traders he might be able to see repreating patterns that he can help, and often much like the "emporer with no clothes" sometimes its those that have an outside (naive maybe) perspective that might actually offer new insight. Wile I agree with some of wht you say Mitsubishi, do you think maybe you are being a bit blinkered?

possibly when you have multiple sales teams with multiple products so that you can cut and run quickly if need be - maybe they are traders???

after reading my quote - it was badly written, but in answer to your question....try Interactive brokers. They have a great options platform. I dont use them but I often hear people quote think or swim as an options platform also. sounds like you are after a scanner of sorts. when looking at such large transactions, often you need to know if there was another side - ie; was it part of a roll that had been previously done, was it some sort of portfolio program over existing longs, or was it even just a new position - sounds lie a large transaction for a one off, but there are many things it could be - dividend strips, pairs trades, swaps/warrant rehedges, massive punt. To be honest, I think these might alert you to do more digging, but exactly why many of these trades are done, are often not known as you dont see the other side to things. Do you think these sorts of trades want to be telegraphed to the market....and if they did, why? (food for thought)

Like many things, IMHO sometimes you need a light to switch on to even realise it. Personally for me - circa 1995-6 I realised how impartial thinking creeps in....even if it not based on deep seated ideas/character flaws/upbringing etc. Story goes as follows.... I was market making equity options, and I used to chart things by hand on the floor adding to some charts I had printed out first thing in the morning. As I was always doing this and interested in charting, folks on the floor always asked my opinion (even if it was worth very little). The light for me moment was when....one morning asked what I thought of a particluar stock we were trading, my answer was "I have no idea, no opinion, and so I am doing nothing" - about half an hour later someone sold me some calls giving me a long exposure. Rather than hedging them up I thought "gee they were cheap, I must be bullish now". 30 seconds later I hit myself and hedged and then went short - knowing that somewhere, my thinking had been clouded - how was it it could have no idea and then because someone else said/did something that I was suddenly sure of a position that I was given, and did not plan.......for whatever reason. (the short was a punt that if I had no idea, the call seller might have one ) Ever since, I have been aware of biases that can creep in, so little tricks I use to try and avoid this are turning charts upside down, argue the point from the other viewpoint, if I am short, see if I would be comfortable being long....... FWIW - While these may or may not overide deep set individual biases in someones character, they do help keep an even keel when viewing a market.....hence in my world implying some sort of impartiality. In terms of being born into it....you would not be human (or maybe have some sort of autism) to be impartial to everything. My guess is some people can recognise it and switch it on/off better than others. I have seen some great traders and one of their great abilities was to be able to switch from being long to short without problems - not on a whim, but they had no "love" of their previous positions. A five minute mental timeframe memory! (Zdo - glad to see the x-dressing was a faze, unless of course a female perspective on the market helps , it gave me a laugh)

Glad you (sort of) explained that --- I thought Zdo was taking to one of his internal characters - or had taken up cross dressing....it certainly made the head scratch I had a slow one

suggestion - take a 4 hour chart. then take the same instrument, use a 5 min chart. eyeball it, then dump into excel for more in depth analysis.