SIUYA

50% retracement might not be a fib, but on most systems its the easiest way to get a tool to show it. Personally I find the 50% retracement better than the 61.8% in FX, One of the first books I bought as a youngster was Amazon.com: The Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich (9780934380034): Edward D. Dobson: Books It basically just talks about buying at a 50% retracement.....so its simple and not really a recommendation as a book but interesting as food for thought. However, the real issue with Fib/or any retracements is - which swing are you retracing? sometimes they are obvious, sometimes not, but they can offer a good indications of levels sometimes - however I would apply another generalized rule I have learnt. Trade only on the first attempt at them, 2nd and 3rd attempts are usually likely to fail.

are you asking TRO ---- How do or where do I get this indicator to put on your screen?

Mitsubishi - very true. I once dared to ask about a famous persons indicators and weather or not the numbers actually stacked up in tests, not as a judgement but out of interest and in terms of the best way to use them. There were two responses..... from himself - no, they were best applied in context and in combination with other things and used only as a helper (plus there was a bit about, these are proprietary indicators that others pay a lot for etc) from his followers - I was burned at the stake for even suggesting such heresy. (This was on an open chat room on Bloomberg - so one might think there was some level of professionalism there...but no.) Needless to say I took the developers advice and used them as he suggested - his followers however I decided to steer well clear of as they clearly assigned a lot of meaning to something even the developer suggested you dont.

I am sure there are others, and apart from actually having a resting buy long on the low in anticipation then what about a measure to say, if the market bounces X ticks above the low.... this is not dependent on time at all. (I guess this is more classed as the activity element of it) Basing it purely on a time frame will mean you miss the move or get on too late. ....and while you say its 9.15, or 9.30.....apart from press releases the market does not care except maybe the time splitting order algorithms.....this adds another element, as opposed to just saying on my visual/system timeframe if this occurs, regardless of when in the day, I will do this. What I do find interesting in looking at smaller time frames/smaller tick sizes/levels is that you really dont need to be in a hurry as there are many more opportunities that alert you. Sure you might miss some trades, but equally so, the simple measure of waiting for a reaction often works - depending on your attempts to either scalp, swing trade, run things etc. (as zdo says - system specific) either way you need a consistent measure of what appears to be a "rejection", and I think its the consistency that is key...in the right context (I use TRO as an example, he only takes trades if they are 20 ticks from the high or low - it can be as good a measure as any I guess) Plus I am probably rambling now.....all food for thought

so is that a combination..... No Fear --- have no fear of the trend (your friend) No Surprise ---- dont be surprised when the trend continues (dont disagree with him) No Hesitation ---- have no hesitation of trading with the trend (dont argue with him) No Doubt --- there is no doubt that the trend will end at some stage, until then repeat.....until your friend becomes a new friend

not really. If you are trying to capture the meat of a move, or get on longer trending positions then it does not make much difference. Of course their will be slight discrepancies/tracking errors if you were to back test between the two, however on a lot of different simple tests i have done they are not a major issue using either one.....the highs and lows will get you into more trades often quicker, but also miss some of the losers....its a trade off depending on then where you might set stops etc. etc, etc. when it comes to using a close or not, I guess patience and the more I push myself into that mode is whats works best for me.....hence the wait until close as opposed to anything When it comes to the automation part of it then there are differences, but for what I am ultimately trying to do it should not make a massive difference (I hope/think ) eg; today on a system i am testing, I shorted the EUR USD 3 times this morning, stopped them all out, and the fourth got on board the recent move down - however the difference between using the highs and lows v the close on a 1 min chart is a few ticks. When the drop has resulted in a move from 1.312085 (the final short) to currently 1.31470. (In real life I however had set a trailing stop too close and did get stopped at 1.3170 against all my better judgement - while still live testing these things will happen :crap:, as opposed to remaining short with a stop ALERT currently above 1.3156, or just letting the whole thing ride.....the joys of testing and teasing) Plus Yertle, if the close is relevant, how is the open not relevant? unless you can predict the close, the open is ideally the next best place after an on close trigger is fired.....

agreeing with the other two..... plus if you want a system that is good, cheap, reliable and has the ability for both programmers and non programmers to develop automated systems on then try Sierra Chart. it has some simple automation methods using spreadsheets whereby you dont need to program a lot if at all. While it has what appears to be a steep learning curve at the start it is only because the system is very detailed, but once into it it seems to be able to do most things, simply and easily, and the programmers also quickly respond to new requests if they can be done.... additionally, you can pay for programmers to do work that is not too massive a projects and I know from experience they are good value if the project is straight forward and not too complex.

only for a simple and clear reference as to where market is relative to the recent past - but generally no. For me - I wont sit and wait for a bar to close, but when trying to automate things, or when using backtesting I will use it as opposed to just highs and lows.

bank forex rates are a rip off, however if you are only doing one or a few transactions then they are fine. Opening an account that gives great rates, pays interest and allows you to switch between currencies, without the use of leverage is the best idea. Something like Oanda is good as they dont charge platform fees etc;

not necessarily so. If the trader thinks 5min bars are better than 6min bars then yes - the trader is likely to be deluding themselves, however it can still be a more visual representation that suits the system they are trading, with little relevance to what the market is thinking, as it provides a visual measure to use, or a way to trigger a trade setup. doesn't this go against what you just said above.....and I guess this is what you are getting at, it is more important to understand the context of what is happening based on your designated time frame - for trade lengths - rather than bar lengths. This is the setup, the trigger may be the bar close - or previous bar low/high ---- which is just as arbitrary. it just provides a trigger - the rest is a setup. Each bar is insignificant in itself but together they form the flow/the pattern/the mood of the market, however if you say you want to go short (based on some rationale/reasoning/setup), then you can either go short immediately and just accept it, OR you could wait for some trigger of confirmation your setup idea might be correct. This confirmation might be arbitrary, but it still might be better (or not ) than a random entry......assuming of course that you are trying to get into a trade idea with the smallest possible risk, and to have that trade have a high likelihood of immediately going for you. Many of the support and resistance levels could be argued to be just as arbitrary, and yet you still need a trigger unless you just have prices sitting waiting to go......

While the highs and lows may form boundaries, the close does give a "relative measure" to the previous closes - for that particular time frame.....think about this in terms of watching a single sgiggly line of a 5 min chart without the highs and lows as boundaries. Sometimes even this can give a reasonably clear picture of whats happening without the noise of the highs and lows think about it in terms of a market that is actually going nowwhere and continually reverting back to its close which might be in the middle of some large range bars.

I agree with the first two posters - its arbitrary, however if you test for a particular method, then stick with that for consistency. I find it funny when someone says it works on a 5min bar, but does not on a ten minute bar.....to me it does not make much sense.....anyone else know? Personally I find I like to use he close of bar as just an extra confirmation that there is strength for the move I want - ie; if I think something is going up, i dont want a spike to get me long if I am buying breaks, I want a close of the bar (relative to every other bar I am looking at) as an extra confirmation that the move might have some vailidity. Now before it starts - yes - the spike I talked about could just be on the close of that bar and in fact is still largely irrelevant, however I view it that if I am trading a 5 min chart, and the last few 1 min charts of that bar have been above the buy level, then that tells me its more of a valid break as opposed to the probability it just happened to spike on the close......maybe I should look at the last two 1 minute bars, maybe, maybe, maybe.....but for me its just something that helps confirm things for me. The other thing about on close of bar, is that if using more automation it can stop multiple triggering of systems if they whip up and down through a level, when you only want the bar to fire once on the close. Sure you might have it fire just once per bar as well.....but then this is just as arbitrary. This is the key for me as I try and automate somethings....making it work with a system as opposed to just firing all the time. I also find it an easy measure when looking to say short a rally. I am looking for some sort of pullback to occur before I short. .....a close of bar, or a low of the previous bar is just as arbitrary.....but you have to pick something. I have mucked around with range bars to try and minimise the issues involved here, but have found in fast moving markets, the range bars can often give a distorted view - iel 5 range bars might occur in one minute bar - so while they are good at eliminating some of the noiseless chop, the downside is the reverse in quickly trending markets.....so I use range bars as a visual que, and have stuck to time based bars for triggering ......realising its all arbitrary anyway. - all these squiggly lines can really mess with the mind......:doh::crap:

Rules may not help your anxiety if you dont have a sound basis for those rules....ie experience, backtesting, a fundamental idea of how you think the market works and how you can profit from that within your personality -----otherwise all you will do is deviate from those rules and continually try and change them. To minimise the anxiety you need to accept that not only will you have losses, (no matter how they are called, or how you get them) and that you will quite often be wrong. If you cant accept that then all the stop placemen for ideal/optimised/backtesting etc; etc; will not make one iota of difference. To try and identify the noise level will still leave you with the same problem - you have to accept that there will always be noise and you then need to work out how to minimise this noise - or at least learn to live with it within the parameters that work for what ever system you adopt.....and then tweak the 1 atr, 2 atr position sizing...... as bullandbear hits on - I think an underlying philosophy of the markets might be more important, and then the stop levels will fit that......

I had to look up Leptokurtosis It sounds like a skin rash. I have been out of the markets lately as I moved, but just starting to edge my way back into it last week with some training drills. Interestingly enough one of the things I have been looking at/thinking about is varying bet sizes slightly for what I have been building on....so it will be interesting if you start another project. If I could add anything as far as ideas, thoughts then happy to do so as you do have a great way of describing and explaining things. I would say, that ultimately a lot may end up looking the same from the point of view - ultimately we are looking to build the biggest positions possible with the smallest risk possible to capture the largest gains possible.....how to do that is the many and varied road. From an option trading point of view once you start looking at fat tails and/or Leptokurtosis (if my reading of what it is is correct) then it would be interesting.....and yes I prefer the dumbing down of statistical ideas into lay mans terms too

sounds like a bull market climbing the wall of worry.

who is it with? then others with experience might help. Dont forget that a lot of these systems are linked to live data and regulated companies - depending on how segregated it is these might be regulatory requirements at a guess. Otherwise its just marketing. If you are having serious issues with revealing this info to a broker or such - then it might be best not to use them. Otherwise Use a rubbish email, fake address and name until you have to actually provide proof to open an account.

usually there is only one village idiot - they provide the comedy fodder for the others, and the best part of it is that the village idiot is usually the one with blinkers on and thinks that everyone else but them is the fool.

you mean????.... noooo!!! tell me you are kidding......... all those things they say and then you mean we do them in reality....... (4 is ok if you have enough experience) my take - 1 and 2 occur, then 3 and 4 occur (maybe in reverse order) (today - as I get back into it after a hiatus and I am trying to get some rhythm back (but it is still no excuse) I was definitively guilty of 1, not of 2, not of 3, not of 4....and low and behold in a crappy EURUSD since 2pm I now have a short position of 400,000 EUR (dont ask why a short for reasons, how or where....I am actually not that bearish and dont have a view - its just the position I have ended up with) that worst case might cost me $125 for the day.......let it ride......who cares what you think ( ;) I just want to see it go down, otherwise I cut it.

cross talk (as in double talk not as in angry) maybe Rande but ---- this is not what I try and do at all. While people talk of the mood of the market, and give it emotional context of what a few people are thinking), if I am short term trading I could not care less about trying to understand or read anyone else's emotions (the market as a whole for me has no emotions). For me others fear and greed have nothing to do with it. I want what i consider to be good entry levels, and then I want the market to go my way - if anything the detachment is to NOT think about what anyone else is thinking but to actually just see what is happening in the realm of possibilities and probabilites of movement. If anything it is the thinking about others that causes problems - questions such as "what if the market turns from here, what if others rush for the door, how do i pay the bills if I dont take this profit, what will the boys down the pub say when i tell them i had a ten bagger today" etc... when I am trading at my best - the simplest thing to answer when asked what do you think is - I dunno, the market looks likes its still going up, down, sideways and then to act on that, based on the thinking that is done either before the market or in your strategy and tactics development.....not in the application of them. (One reason I would still like to automate more) simplistic maybe but thats my POV and it may differ from others.(does that make me a trading sociopath??? )

maybe a detachment from a previously perceived reality to a new one where reality is far less forgiving of excuses, deceptive self delusional behavior and purely evidence based???? and WTF ---- if a guy is pointing a gun at me because he owes me money it makes me s..t myself and I have every right to that reality - this aint the movies - he is clearly a nutter - but i get your point damm - ECB - and their interest rate gun

I think zdo is making the point (and if i am reading him right) that if you are going to generalise then fine, but comments such as this can be misleading/too general "What "seems" to be true often isn't the case.. I've tested dozens of systems and most systems that use price stops perform worse" http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/money-management/11897-why-do-some-people-not-place.html While this is not a grammar/writing lesson for all of us it is quite important to clarify somethings and often it helps clarify those things for ourselves and helps others as well when writing these things. Point being - just because you have tested dozens of systems and MOST (but not all 55%??) perform better without stops does not mean much. It actually raises more questions such as - how long did you test them for, what were the characterisitics of the tests that did better with them, without them, do they perform better in bull markets etc. Than again with the distinction between trend and mean reversion systems (the penny in front of the steam roller systems unless you use an exit) - the point is the same - why do you think this, have you proven this (this can never be a fact as their will always be systems disproving it), is there a difference between systems that performs better with an initial stop v a tight intitial stop v a trailing stop v a loose trailing stop. etc etc; How do these systems performs based on when you take a profit......as you need some form of entry and exit from a trade and basically a stop is just one form of exit - think about it ----- a take profit is a stop. Especially after we just discusssed the differences between stops - hard, mental, initial, no stops, tight ones Not to be picky as we are all guilty of it (even zdo with his crazy wild doom and gloom or are they be happy it could be worse threads) however I do see his point and it is important to make the distinctions between specific examples via the overplaying of the recording.....as its probably not played enough maybe. (no dig at anyone - even though I used your quote Predictor - just an observation for us all maybe we should use the words trade exit and entry via a particular method more than just stop)

what I see - a bunch of red squiggly lines and an instrument that is trending up (throw in some extra context which might help to formulate a trade tactic but it is a start)

one mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter..... I absolutely believe in freedom of liberty so long as it does not interfere with my desire to be leader of the one world government. (I noticed this one - "impose strict religious tenets or laws on society (fundamentalists)" they had better lock a lot of people up then unless they have a good definition of strict)

if you define something you put yourself in the position of having to then cover all bases for where it does not fit your definition but you still need to have the ability to regulate it - the regulators dilemma.....however yes - a working definition of varying degrees (VHFT, HFT, Maket Makers, automatic traders, day traders, weekly traders, phone in and chat private bankers) would at least be a good start.....

gotcha - you are distinguishing between stops. ie; there are price stops, hard stops, mental stops, account decimation stops, max account loss for day stop etc; etc;....... yes - not everyone has hard/automatic price stops, not everyone uses price stops - given the normal/usual regurgitation of money management using price stops - how would you suggest one size their positions using no price stops as a basis to do this. A manager saying you can trade X contracts and loose $x per day - if you do in one trade or twenty I guess is one way.