SIUYA

Chito is nuts...but it takes all sorts (otherwise he has some secret like a well fed crocodile prior to the workout) Its a bit like short volatility options trading - its brilliant until its not.

not to be picky....what did he ever do to you guys??? I think they are pretty GENERAL rules that may be worded slightly however they are certainly not so bad. What if it was written LEARN TO ACCEPT LOSSES ? This is a discussion forum and while 90% maybe BS, or trivial so it could be argued is most of life.... (dont ask why I feeling bleeding heart today, I think it has to do with some self help and be kind to others management book I picked up and read a bit of last night. I just thought it was a bit harsh) What if it was more RULE # 1:USE MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE BE ADEQUATELY CAPITALIZED SO YOUR FOCUS IS ON TRADING CORRECTLY AND NOT FEEDING THE FAMILY RULE # 2: KNOW YOURSELF ADOPT A STYLE/STRATEGY THAT SUITS YOUR TEMPERAMENT and EMPHASIZES YOUR TRADING STRENGTHS and MINIMISES YOUR WEAKNESSES RULE # 3: START SMALL WALK BEFORE YOU CAN RUN, YOU DONT NEED TO MAKE MILLIONS OVERNIGHT RULE # 4 DO NOT OVER COMMIT SEE RULE 1 and 3, but also be prepared to commit 100% to your plan and testing and then commit to what you have tested that works when you trade. Have something you know works otherwise you are pissing in the wind and no one likes blowback RULE # 5: ISOLATE YOUR TRADING FROM YOUR DESIRE FOR PROFIT. SEE RULE 2 and 4 RULE # 6: DO NOT FORM NEW OPINIONS DURING TRADING HOURS. PRE PLAN YOUR TRADE. SEE RULE 2 and 4, and have a contingency as part of the plan for flexibility RULE # 7: TAKE A TRADING BREAK: There is more to life than just trading, take a bigger perspective, it might actually help your trading, but focus when focus is needed. Not really a rule but a habit RULE # 8: DO NOT FOLLOW THE CROWD. This one I do think is too generic - there is often wisdom in crowds. RULE # 9: BLOCK OUT OTHER OPINIONS. See rule 2 and 4 RULE #10:WHEN YOU ARE NOT SURE, STAND ASIDE. see rule 2 and 4 RULE # 11: NEVER ENTER YOUR ENTIRE POSITION AT ONE PRICE. System specific - see rules 2 and 4... just for zdo RULE # 12: NEVER ADD TO LOSING POSITION System specific - just for zdo, and know that this is also likely to end with system demise. RULE #13: CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT System specific ...see rules 2 and 4 RULE # 14: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN. System specific ...see rules 2 and 4 RULE # 15: LEARN TO LIKE LOSSES. Learn to accept losses and understand how/why/when they are expected as part of rules 2 and 4 so......I guess you are right guys - sorry my bad - throw out most of the stuff, stick to rules 2 and 4 and and you should be ok, or at least have some sliver of hope

Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has been buying the options........ If markets move slowly and liquidity remains in the options there is usually not a problem, however the issues arise when a big sudden move occurs .... 1....volatility massively increases, so the move against you hurts due to the underlying move 2.....and the volatility element of the option also increases 3.... the liquidity dries up as everyone is rushing for the liferafts 4....the guys who own the options are not going to take their profits quickly.....they have been buying options for this type of move and they are not suddenly going to say "well gee you guys who have been collecting premium all these months now want to just buy it back - from who.....oh me,.....sorry its going to cost. Remember when you sell an option - the most money you will make is on the day you sell it, and every day you might collect a small bit of premium, but it only takes one big day to watch those options increase in price (against you ) ten fold with the often repeated black swan events.

I would imagine it depends on the broker and instrument weather or not the options are exchange listed or OTC - some may give offsets Options Education | Strategy Papers & Trading Tools - CME Group

exactly......institutions mainly invest with these guys to diversify an existing portfolio - they are not looking for spectacular returns, even though the more aggressive ones can get that. Look at how they went in 2008. like most things comparing apples with oranges is not going to help, and some of these do move battleships around....heard of Winton? Point is these guys would not likely be using automated systems similar to the ones we see, they often have systems that spit out trades based on rather simple algorithims for trade entries and their key to making money is usually that they have a very diversifed potfolio of instruments to trade around the world. The trades are most likely entered via a blend of manual and automated systems that are done in house. Trading robots offered by others.....well there is the great if it works so well why sell it conundrum...... Personally - you need a diversified approach whereby you understand some things work but not all the time and a bit of manual discretion is needed. Though others will disagree. As far as platforms go for the retail guy.....try Sierra Chart, multicharts, tradestation. As far as using a robot some one else has developed.....no interest.

not taken in any other way bluehoreseshoe.....so no problems however I think when it comes to day trading the algorithmic/sytematic/automated trading strategies and the robots, are different to those of the ling term ones.....thats all. Plus some of those funds do diversify across different time frames. Most of them (at a guess from what i have seen and heard/read) also use manual traders to input the trades spat out by the computer as they manage the trades rather than just let the computer fire them in. And as mentioned by Mr You the platforms are different to the systems and strategies. Yes the link by Jez Liberty is very good and links to other trend following sites for those interested. (Jez is a great guy and very switched on)

Most of those mentioned - Dunn, JW Henry, Winton are LONG TERM trend followers, and some of them are very systemised. There is a lot of controversy about their systems in terms or are they broken, how systematic are they, how diversified they are, how long/short term they are, if they actually produce alpha.etc, etc; This is very, very different from what most would consider robots for day trading..... Others of note can be found here - a very good site to further investigate Trend Following Wizards Performance | Au.Tra.Sy blog - Automated trading System

onesmith has got it right - ignore the percentages...... When they talk about "all time high" it was talking about it because that was what they used for the entry trigger. Covel talks about (but controversially so - may or may not trade) long term trend trading....and often a measure to trigger an entry into an instrument is to buy recent new highs, or all time highs. You could use the same ATR stops on any entry trigger method, however 10 ATR stops are likely to be considered very wide unless you are long term trend following

it can be a new picture to put in your thread - What do you see. (using a simple filtering technique --- I would think some people would choose 2,4 and 5 with the most profit potential )

Rande - nice article - if anything this applies to me as one issue I know I often face. It boils down to overtrading Whether because I used to have the fear of missing out due to inbuilt deep seated evolutionary reasons, mother and father issues, or the fact I started trading as a market maker whereby you ideally had to do a lot of trades and create opportunity, or I had a generally philosophy of saying "yes" to everything, or maybe its just plain boredom, or a self destructive "we all get what we want out of the markets reality" - who knows - its probably a combination of all of them Either way - in working on solutions - such things as process, practice, planning - having feedback from others, automating processes, getting up and walking away - not watching the screens when a trade is on, not watching your PL, eliminating anxiety by having other hobbies to do, drinking , improving focus on what is important in the market (context, as opposed to the minuscule issues of worrying if the global cabal of international conspiracy theorists will tick my stop to the cent), then these are just something traders have to work on....that suit them. Remembering () its not about something being right or wrong, or for reasons of why in first place (this might help as it could deal with the reasons in the first place)- you want things that work.....whatever the reasons. (if rubbing you lucky rabbits foot eases your fear then great - nuts, but fine) just a bit of topical reading as well. Life can be like a balloon when everyday problems blow up in your face

good luck Mitsubishi - if you take something - like EW - and try and improve it, etc; then if you go down the path of trying to create a model that explains everything and becomes a model that the market has to fit I think you will struggle.....now I know you are probably not saying this and while Precter may be a fanatical devotee - so are many other perma bulls, bears and they usually have their day in the sun. Often its better to be nown for something than being a flipper with no conviction - it makes for good tv. For my Elliot wave theory is a good generalist theory of how the markets work/swing/move - in waves. Now those waves might as often be seen in a series of 5 and 3 wave counts. Period. Personally - if I see something that in the context of other things - eg; support, resistance, 50% retracement in an existing trend - AND - I can clearly see 5 waves or I can see that a 3 wave retracement would also co-incide with a 100% of the A wave to C waves then it gives me a higher conviction for the trade. I am interested in counting the interior waves to try and then predict what is going to happen in the future - no. (much like Tom Demark - 9-13-9 counts, they are indications and a general theory of how markets appear to move) - are they predictive? Only if you want to be frustrated and proved wrong like so many of our predictions ---- as opposed to anticipations of possibilities/probabilities.

FYI for anyone interested http://thepatternsite.com/CandleEntry.html he will likely have some info

From Texas! ) Subject: 2011 DARWIN AWARDS EighthPlace In Detroit , a 41-year-old man got stuck and drowned in two feet of water aftersqueezing head first through an 18-inch-wide sewer grate to retrieve his car keys. Seventh Place A 49-year-old San Francisco stockbroker, who "totally zoned when he ran", accidentally jogged off a 100-foot high cliff on his daily run. Sixth Place While at the beach, Daniel Jones, 21, dug an 8 foot hole for protection from the wind and had been sitting in a beach chair at the bottom, when itcollapsed, burying him beneath 5 feet of sand. People on the beach used their hands and shovels trying to get him out but could not reach him. It took rescue workers using heavy equipment almost an hour to free him. Jones was pronounced dead at a hospital. Fifth Place Santiago Alvarado, 24, was killed as he fell through the ceiling of a bicycle shop he was burglarizing. Death was caused when the long flashlight he had placed in his mouth to keep his hands free rammed into the base of his skull as he hit the floor. Fourth Place Sylvester Briddell, Jr., 26, was killed as he won a bet with friends who said he would not put a revolver loaded with four bullets into his mouth and pull the trigger. Third Place After stepping around a marked police patrol car parked at the front door, aman walked into H&J Leather & Firearms intent on robbing the store. Theshop was full of customers and a uniformed officer was standing at the counter.Upon seeing the officer, the would-be robber announced a hold-up and fired a few wild shots from a target pistol. The officer and a clerk promptly returned fire, and several customers also drewtheir guns and fired. The robber was pronounced dead at the scene byParamedics. Crime scene investigators located 47 expended cartridge cases inthe shop. The subsequent autopsy revealed 23 gunshot wounds. Ballistics identified rounds from 7 different weapons. No one else was hurt. HONORABLE MENTION Paul Stiller, 47, and his wife Bonnie were bored just driving around at 2 A.M.so they lit a quarter stick of dynamite to toss out the window to see what would happen. Apparently they failed to notice that the window was closed. RUNNER UP Kerry Bingham had been drinking with several friends when one of them said they knew a person who had bungee-jumped from a local bridge in the middle of traffic. The conversation grew more excited, and at least 10 men trooped along the walkway of the bridge at 4:30 AM. Upon arrival at the midpoint of the bridge, they discovered that no one had brought a bungee rope. Bingham, who hadcontinued drinking, volunteered and pointed out that a coil of lineman's cablelay nearby. They secured one end around Bingham's leg and then tied the other to the bridge. His fall lasted 40 feet before the cable tightened and tore hisfoot off at the ankle. He miraculously survived his fall into the icy water andwas rescued by two nearby fishermen. Bingham's foot was never located. AND THE WINNER IS.... Zookeeper Friedrich Riesfeldt ( Paderborn , Germany ) fedhis constipated elephant 22 doses of animal laxative and more than a bushel ofberries, figs and prunes before the plugged-up pachyderm finally got relief.Investigators say ill-fated Friedrich, 46, was attempting to give the ailing elephant an olive oil enema when the relieved beast unloaded. The sheer force of the elephant's unexpected defecation knocked Mr Riesfeldt tothe ground where he struck his head on a rock as the elephant continued to evacuate 200 pounds of dung on top of him. It seems to be just one of those freak accidents that proves... 'Shit happens' IT ALWAYS SEEMS IMPORTANT TO THANK THESE PEOPLE FOR REMOVING THEMSELVES FROM THE GENEPOOL.

hindsight......there is nothing about the shape of the hammer that signifies selling has reached the end. its only a visual representation of what has happened. The trades must occur for the hammer to occur, it is not the hammer (or any other pattern magically occurring and making the market bottom. (Cart before horse analogy) In regards something working in the right situation....The context you mentioned previously is more important, otherwise I am sure you will find plenty of hammers, nails, blowtorches and wizamajingets. (plus FYI if the first thing you do is plug another site here you may have sealed your fate )

weekly portable harddrive backup for data files - this way if the net goes down I still have records. regular save the latest incarnations of any spreadsheets/WIP/Word/bookmarks I might be working on to dropbox as well.....this way I can still generally plug and play Emails - backup by hosting providers - up to a certain limit at least. I used to have two computers automatically backing each other up, now I work from a single laptop. There could be better ways to do it I am sure, but in a perverse sort of way, if all the junk goes due to a catastrophic failure its not a bad thing - so long as I have what I need.

if my memory serves correct, the reference to Denise was a typo Rande made to you - in that it was meant to be private, and my reference was to her as - who cares about Denise in this conversation. OR maybe I really am a sicko and think she (who ever she is) is still up for it.

not sure if this is directed at my last question, or exactly what this means, however at a guess as the Rat reversals are mean reverting on a day basis at least, are you saying that you should also apply something similar on a yearly basis, ie; look for the yearly to mean revert also, ie; be a selling rat on the USDEUR, and a buying Rat on the USDCAD??? If so, when you say to only go one way -choose a side, only be a red or green rat.....then surely this must change ??? thanks.

I agree TRO - dont over trade.... so what you are saying is that you must apply a filter of some sort to these trades. Otherwise, every time you have (in this case) a red bar, green bar on a 1 minute chart, within the 20 ticks from the low range you would have to take it. In your experience What is the filter for the Rat? Why is it some trades are worth taking, while others are not? Is it just a matter of context? or is to trade like a rat just a metaphor? thanks.

jswanson - thanks. Interesting. FYI - Years ago I did a similar test on many different stocks. Deliberately choosing bull and bear markets with hindsight in a number of ways - to ensure I saw the best and worst of the best and worst. I used equities as they clearly had open and close prices - with FX where and when you close might have a difference - but I expect not What I found was that in bull markets, and bear markets the split between bullish days and bearish days was about 50-50. This at first seems surprising, but when you consider it is all about the magnitude of moves then it puts it in perspective. So maybe this could be an extra measure to look at, also what does happen if you radically change the open and close of the FX day? Plus what are the number of losses you have to go through to actually strike a winner? thanks.

Hi TRO, I was curious and pondering a few things and today was an example of something that can be a potential killer (mentally) in systems like yours, on days like today in the AUDUSD where the pair just traded up against its high, or down against the low of the day (depending on how/when you measure it from it might be different) But when you have cases like this, do you find in your experience it all just washes out and while you might take a lot of small looses, you only need one to really go your way to make it back.....because if you trail a stop to close could you not find your winners still not capturing the losses.... without you reiterating you are a dedicated rat.... I was wondering what your experience on this was.?????? eg; times this occurs, tricks you use to avoid it, or just plow ahead. (or do you use other filters - I would think not as a non Yale student ) I ask for a couple of reasons given debates about closes, etc, and also while mucking around trying to automate stuff, i figure If I can make it work I would be happy to join the rat race. my crude/rough mock up - i think, the bands are the 20-10 pts ranges from the highs and lows, the blue dots, buys, the green dots the initial stop http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=27476&stc=1&d=1329504283 thanks.

far better to play with yourself than argue with yourself....even better to both play and argue with others.

The dogs name is Dick. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=27471&stc=1&d=1329468922

of course there is....this is a market, there are many ways to skin a cat, and no statistics to show certain things work all the time. All we can do is assimilate the info, and think about what works for you....unless someone is looking to buy the secrets (ahem information), as they are for sale. Ever been to law school - how is it the same people are taught the same things and then told to go out and argue with each other that what they know is wrong.....and charge for it!

absolutely - if you are a trader waiting in hope then you have other issues. You do need the context and the trigger be it a 5 min, 1 min, 30 min is a RELATIVE measure. Your context in terms of something is going up has to be based on what you are looking at. Trying to tell the trend of a daily chart by looking at the 5 min is next to impossible, but using a 5min chart to try and time daily entries makes sense......and its in the timing that makes the difference, as this can be linked to how much you want to stop yourself out for. eg; do you want to take a $1000 risk once, or ten trades at $100 risk to try and achieve the same result. (now while the brokers may want you to take the 10x) I would rather take more trades with less loss. So thinking something is going up and just buying might work, trying to improve the timing should help, the key will be in the trade management afterward - ie; if you are right, how long you run it for v the losses, and how small your losses are relative to how long you expect to be able to run it for......similar themes arise - cut losses, run profits - no matter the time frame, or the trigger.

on this vein, if you dont think the close has meaning then what does? (system specific for Zdo) or is the point as others have touched on, the close of a 5 min, v 6 min v 241 tick bar is largely irrelevant, its just a means of triggering a trade based on taking the snapshot at that timeframe? plus, the meaning part can simply be that it forms a part of a more complex system, it is merely the ignition to start an engine, so in terms of being system specific, it is crucial however its meaning by itself is only a minute part of the overall system - so maybe it is more a question of how meaningful is the close of a bar to your system/method?