SIUYA

i guess a fighter pilot in the heat of a battle is more akin to a trader, whereas a sportsperson has rules that apply to the game. However, if you are taking the idea or experience and muscle memory to another level then maybe its as simple as a survivorship bias - those that survive seem to survive because of some innate ability whereas others dont. Some are lucky for a time, others are not. Remember in the back of the market wizards book there was a trader who did not want to be named as some decisions where made using zen mastery or such (cant remember the details). Given a lot of things can be tested historically then to a certain extent we should not be worried and just go on testing, however if being discretionary then already you are applying some sort of muscle memory already. If there are more concerns about the "conflict" then I still think that it becomes an attempt to try and extract too much from a situation. If in your example you bang something out at a high, then it can certainly be quantified, and either as a back tested result, OR if you really wish to see if your trading can be improved, forward testing live time by recording thoughts and actions. There is not much more than that....its a measure of measurement, otherwise you are really just being even more subjective by saying it just works....in which case all the squiggly lines are never needed....however, and here is the next question that relates to this..... how then do you measure what is skill, technique or just dumb luck. ie; where is the "alpha" - are you better investing in the market and doing something else.??? A whole other kettle of fish, and a question I raised in another thread about outperforming over the long run. At a guess (and this is a big guess) - is that you can get value out of avoiding marginal trades or not being too greedy when exiting prior to a trigger - ie saving a 5 points when you might have only captured an extra 1 - but thats about it....and even then this should be able to be measured, if you can be bothered. Hindsight gives a wonderful theoretical set of rules, history measures the effectiveness of those rules.

The sports analogy is always interesting. There are a lot of similarities to trading in some respects It is often forgotten however that many of these top sports people have the advantages of full time coaches, statistical measures of their past and competitors performances, and a raw natural talent to begin with. A friend of mine was great mates with a top professional golfer who often said his intuition (and maybe this was not the right word, but the point is the same) caused him problems. He used to often "go for shots" when his ability said that they were of low probability to work....fantastic if they did, you looked like a legend. He struggled when he played like this, but the thing was, once he stopped this, stuck to what he did well, and knew he did well, he went back to making money on the tour. While often its the size of our account (risk of ruin) more than the raw talent that is the difference between using the intuition or not, often we have to play within our limitations of comfortable risk.....????

I had seen this article before and it is sort of topical here. Chances Are - NYTimes.com There are a lot of similar articles and tests around that have shown that our intuition and feelings around anything to do with probability are generally quite poor, even when we are a supposed expert. So even if your intuition is telling you something, unless the accuracy of your intuition is properly historically measured then you might still be kidding yourself relying on it. So unless the facts bear out that you should trust your intuition and change/modify your plan then you should ignore the intuition - or at least adopt a way to incorporate it w=so that at least it does no harm.

I think most traders who tell you how hard it is are not doing so to discourage you. They are doing so to temper your expectations and make you realise that just because you believe something is possible does not mean that it is possible and certainly does not mean that its possible for you. The fact that you think/know they are experienced and successful is all the proof you need to know that it can be done and it is possible. Yes, all the positive affirmations are a good thing......but there is a lot more to it than that....that BS about "the secret" is all you need to do is believe is rubbish. It may be the first step of a 1000 mile journey but that is just the start. I think you will find the opposite --- that all the sales traders are the ones who tell you that anyone can do this.

Maybe its Sunday and I am tired from a bike ride, but this is hard to follow. However....It seems as if you are saying.... "structure is violated" --- doesn't that say it all? Maybe in this case you will exit the short on a continuation of downtrend due to intuition, but to then enter a long on a feeling/hunch/unconscious competence becomes punting in my book. or what could be an emerging trend. You are bottom picking in your example. There is a lot of assumption here that not only might you have a break/rest/congestion in a downtrend, but that you all ALSO have a new trend..... dependent on time frame then usually you have plenty of time for these things to turn around, otherwise your clips sound very small. How do you know your "unconscious competent" is good at recognizing changes or is looking for them in order to exit a trade. In your case it sounds as though you dont know, otherwise you could just incorpoarte into any plan extra steps a....fast bounce from new lows, and b....violation of recent swing highs = new trend, so then how do you enter? YOU ARE OVER TRADING AND DOING MARGINAL TRADES.....trying to capture every move. Every time you get a feeling like this......mark on your chart what you felt like you should have done. Save that chart or record it somewhere. Then stick to your trading plan as it originally stood. Do this consistently for a month......then look at if you need/can improve your system. (my guess is that you will loose just as much trying to pick the bottoms, or at least you will trade less, and have less anxiety even if you exit your original shorts at similar levels) You will then have a record

Karoshiman - my take from MM is that while its good to know yourself, while its great to realise that trading can make you a more humble person and face up to the reality that you will often be wrong, or a poor predictor of the future or whatever - only historical results will show you this.... For him - and this may not apply for everyone - he takes "himself" out of the equation. It is then not a matter of "why did I do that" it becomes a matter of "if that does not work then dont do it"....."just do what testing shows works" --- notice there is no reference to I in the second string of sentences. Then either the market context works for your style/strategy at that time - "I love trading" or it causes a sting of losses "I hate trading" Hence his subconscious is focused on the market at the time and not on how he feels...this only occurs after. Relating this to this thread - the question should always be - what is the market doing....not what am I thinking. This is particularly hard as often we only remember the times that our thinking saved us or made us money....not when it cost us profits. When the unconscious mind knows there are levels, or knows it has seen this type of pattern before then maybe we can rely on it. A bit like riding a bike - you dont think about all the physics involved, you just go with the balancing act as it happens.

My only take on this, and this is from my own personal experience is that you (and "you" also refers to "me" as I sometimes get this problem) are trying to get too much from the markets sometimes. I dont actually think its the fear of having a position. Its the greed of wanting too much. Its the old thinking - if I had done that, I could have captured that move, or those extra ticks. Its the taking of the marginal trades - along the lines of thinking "I am long here, if I sell it here and buy it back lower to capture a few extra ticks then" 1)....how smart am I, 2) this will make more money, and 3) ......I feel I need to do something to maximise and capture every opportunity I see. (This need to be busy clearly comes from my parents neglecting me and my 4 brothers as children ) This leads to over trading, and feeding your broker By expanding out the time frame again, you minimise the mini marginal opportunities you might see that will trip you up.

switch to a larger time frame and continue to watch. eg; pick your direction using (1hr, 25 range bar etc;) go to 5min/5 range bar enter trade, then go back to the larger scale.....allows you to watch without getting tick trigger happy

Yes there is frustration....always will be....let it run there are give backs, take profits too early you miss the run. I try and get on runners and just let them go.....my entries and exits are more discretionary and hence not really able to be tested (something I am attempting to automate more) however there is another advantage to letting things run that probably could be tested to a degree --- discretionary exits are an issue......this advantage is that once on a runner as it goes your way you really dont need to do too much else except check the larger picture. You are not trying to capture 20 days x30 pips a day (as an example), instead you try and get on board....and once on board, you will hope to get that 600 pip equivalent with one trade + maybe a bunch of small losses ,or small wins. (eg; experimenting with the ideas of close initial stop, that trails to a level quickly and then stops trailing, letting it have breathing room for the runner) The other advantage of this is then that you can look for the bigger moves in more instruments. Of course this requires enough margin cash to run multiple instruments, so it maybe not so applicable to day trading so even if you make the same amount of money letting positions run as always taking profits there are other advantages

Fred - this point I thought interesting, as from what I see most people go into trading - either thinking they will make gazillions OR just to make a few extra dollars, but all seem to underestimate the work involved, and usually it seems those that want to make gazillions are the ones most likely taken in by the BS....otherwise why start with $10,000 and think this will be the path the freedom and then spend $2000 of this on a system.... I figured the Neg was referring more to the BS vendors usually spout, even though it does refer to everyone..... Choose lucky all the time that is why risk of ruin is important, you cant even have the opportunity to be lucky if you cant stay in the game. The smart ones who get lucky and big enough usually know they they got lucky and move on rather than persist and loose, the others give it back. (that old saying of old bold (or is it bald) traders....) A...to recruit people? Steve, yes there are people who can do it.....so it not just the blind leading the blind, but "a person who does this well, and has the ability to make money consistently....doesn't really need" to sell what they are doing either. Of course it's a completely valid business model so maybe you could add to the negotiators BS - vendors who say they can trade profitably probably should also add that they sell their wares as it makes them more money to sell than trade ---- otherwise if being rational, they should either sell their ideas/system at a very inexpensive price or give it away for free, as they like to help (which does happen)..... or just up their size and not put up with the crap.....

Smart jokes....some have been used on TL PARAPROSDOKIANS: (Winston Churchill loved them.) I had to look up "paraprosdokian". Here is the definition: "Figure of speech in which the latter part of a sentence or phrase is surprising or unexpected; frequently used in a humorous situation." "Where there's a will, I want to be in it," is a type of paraprosdokian. 1. Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience. 2. The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But it's still on my list. 3. Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. 4. If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong. 5. We never really grow up; we only learn how to act in public. 6. War does not determine who is right - only who is left. 7. Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad. 8. Evening news is where they begin with 'Good Evening,' and then proceed to tell you why it isn't. 9. To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism. To steal from many is research. 10. A bus station is where a bus stops. A train station is where a train stops. On my desk, I have a work station. 11. I thought I wanted a career. Turns out I just wanted paychecks. 12. Whenever I fill out an application, in the part that says, 'In case of emergency, notify:' I put 'DOCTOR.' 13. I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you. 14. Women will never be equal to men until they can walk down the street with a bald head and a beer gut, and still think they are sexy. 15. Behind every successful man is his woman. Behind the fall of a successful man is usually another woman. 16. A clear conscience is the sign of a fuzzy memory. 17. You do not need a parachute to skydive. You only need a parachute to skydive twice. 18. Money can't buy happiness, but it sure makes misery easier to live with. 19. There's a fine line between cuddling and holding someone down so they can't get away. 20. I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure. 21. You're never too old to learn something stupid. 22. To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first and call whatever you hit the target. 23. Nostalgia isn't what it used to be. 24. Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine. 25. Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. 26. Where there's a will, there's relatives

I think you need some clearer questions. Broad based ones of where do I get help wont get many responses. when you say you dont understand the commission structeres of the brokers - what do you mean. If you have been trading fx and commodties for 5 yrs????..... start with the brokers and their examples...ask them for scenarios Most equity brokers either charge a basis point percentage of the overall trade size, or a 'cents per trade' as a clip. One thing you will need to beaware of if trading US and UK shares. Most UK shares attract stamp duty, and so you may not actually trade the shares, plus they are often quoted differently (as in pence per share, not in dollars per share - this can easily trick you)

thats a quote you wont see in any newspaper soon.

Completely unfair of course but a friend passed this to me and it made me smile...... The first woman is 51 yrs old. She is TV health guru Gillian McKeith, advocating a holistic approach to nutrition and health, promoting exercise, and a vegetarian diet high in organic fruits and vegetables. She recommends detox diets, colonic irrigation, and supplements. The 2nd woman is also 51. She is Nigella Lawson... a TV cook, who eats meat, butter, and desserts. ... and, she washes it all down with wine!

Why are you discussing me ? IMHO because if you wish to actually learn to trade there are certain things you generally need to do. But its not about you really.....its about the mindset There is no need to discuss Rob - and I am not defending him - I am merely pointing out that you dont seem to have learnt much apart from bitterness and spite towards any vendors - from your point of view he is a scammer. period. (DONT BE FOOLED AGAIN) from my point of view he is probably an expensive "educator" His Monday accelerator does not (appear) work, and anyone wishing to test or try it can do so. Maybe it did work for a certain period of time--- did you even test it yourself for the period it was meant to work? Is there anything to discuss, given that those who want to could probably test it, is there likely to be a discussion after this thread - suggestion - set one up to discuss an idea rather than say "I was sold this, I did not test it, but it sucks, I was ripped off as it lost money --- please discuss" Nothing works.....not at all. Some things work very well for some periods. This is the point ---- you seem very binary. "He is a scammer", "It does not work"..... Even taking my quote out of context ---- from "does not work all the time - nothing does" to "Nothing works". Again, sorry if this all sounds harsh, but its not an attack on you..... A few questions if I may..... how many other seminars/websites/trading rooms/get rich quick ideas have you subscribed to both a....prior to and b....since your experience being discussed? how much cash have you spent as a proportion of your trading capital on these? What have you learnt?

absolutely MM - however for most this is not the case. I dont think their realities live up to their expectations. (Lately mine has been frustrating more through automated building/testing and realising my expectations are not being met - I am trying to get too much out of things I think --- always bad for expectations ----- otherwise so glad you are having fun ) Plus how many cashiers have people telling them, this will make you a better person, deal with the fear !! :rofl:

What were you looking for: Replace your full time job? Supplement your income a bit? The freedom to be able to work from just about anywhere? To work at something you find mentally stimulating? A: Fell into it early on and it became a career by default luckily for me at the time Would I recommend it to most people - no Why - unless adequately capitalised it is difficult to make an income Most will fail - those that make it are generally incredibly focused and this can be exhausting While it can be mentally stimulating, it can also be incredibly frustrating, mentally exhausting and downright depressing Freedom is a state of mind and the reality is you really generally only give up a commute. You also generally give up, teamwork, conversations, social networking, a sense of belonging.....etc; etc; The idea of trade from your cafe/mobile/bathtub - --- rubbish. Everything is a trade off and the BS about this being a sexy, exciting fast paced high energy pastime for most home traders is crap. (now this may be different depenant on styles, workplace etc and I know and see others for whom it does work;;;; but for most my guess is that reality is different ---- I must be in either a bad mood today, or a fantastic mood ripe for reality)

I dont represent/endorse/ support, or dis-endorse/ridicule/shame Mr Booker in any way......but I will offer this convoluted collected piece of advice to you rforexdad. Ok, your dictionary is written, reported to the internet for ever, for every one to see...... you know what else has been reported as such..... get over it.....and stop trading a....because either you are too frustrated, hung up on the past to trade profitably. b....you wanted something for nothing and when you found it does not exist you call it a scam c....you clearly cannot be bothered to do your own research and homework before committing money - so you will likely and deserve to loose d....you are a scammer, because a scammer can only con another scammer - see point b and so you will likely always look for the next thing to work, and will always find an excuse e......if Rob Booker is a scammer its because he offered something that does not work all the time - nothing does f.....if Rob Booker is NOT a s scammer its because he offered something that as an idea that does not work all the time - nothing does g.....see e an f ---- ie; nauseating repetition h.....you sound like the person mummy warned you about - "if Jimmy jumped off a bridge than does that mean you should." All you have established is that Monday accelerator does not work all the time, Rob Booker is probably expensive for the ideas he offers to you, you cant be bothered doing your own homework and that you are likely to always be completely unsatisfied and frustrated trading - for that peice of advice it will cost you nothing, nada, zip, zero.....and I bet you will ignore it and not get on with trying to actually profit from trading. (again said to help if thats your objective so please take this in the right manner - if not then so be it, I have wasted my time - no big deal)

doh (space)x20 exclamation mark

Tams --- which one are you?

or is it that you actually have to develop a method for which ones are important, why so and how to play them and then you still need to actually sit and watch the charts....as opposed to let a computer flash and tell you buy and sell.....and even then, they wont work all the time, on all instruments..... no one said trading was sexy and easy

an oldie, but a goldie..... An old Marine Pilot sat down at the Starbucks, still wearing his old USMC flight suit and leather jacket and ordered a cup of a coffee. As he sat sipping his coffee, a young woman sat down next to him. She turned to the pilot and asked, Are you a real pilot? He replied, 'Well, I've spent my whole life flying planes, first Stearmans, then the early Grummans... Flew a Wildcat and Corsair in WWII, and later in the Korean conflict, Banshees and Cougars. I've taught more than 260 people to fly and given rides to hundreds, so I guess I am a pilot, and you, what are you? She said, 'I'm a lesbian. I spend my whole day thinking about naked women. As soon as I get up in the morning, I think about naked women. When I shower, I think about naked women. When I watch TV, I think about naked women. It seems everything makes me think of naked women.' The two sat sipping in silence. A little while later, a young man sat down on the other side of the old pilot and asked: "are you a real pilot?" He replied, 'I always thought I was, but I just found out I'm a lesbian.'

They Walk Among Us - BE VERY WARY IDIOT SIGHTING No.1 My daughter and I went to the McDonald's drive through check-out window to pay our bill and I gave the clerk a £5 note. Our total bill was £4.20, so I also handed her a 20 pence piece. She said, 'You gave me too much money.' I said, 'Yes I know, but this way you can just give me £1 back.' She sighed and went to get the Manager who asked me to repeat my request. I did so, and he handed me back the 20 pence and said 'We're sorry but we do not do that kind of thing.' The clerk then proceeded to give me back 80 pence in change. Do not confuse the clerks at MacDonald's !! IDIOT SIGHTING No2 We had to have the garage door repaired. The GARADOR repairman told us that one of our problems was that we did not have a 'large' enough motor on the opener. I thought for a moment, and said that we had the largest one GARADOR made at that time, a 1/2 horsepower. He shook his head and said, 'Lady, you need a 1/4 horsepower.' I responded that 1/2 was larger than 1/4 and he said, 'NOOO, it's not. Four is larger than two..' We haven't used Garador repair since. Happened in Moor Park , near Watford . IDIOT SIGHTING No3 I live in a semi-rural area. We recently had a new neighbour call the Highways Department to request the removal of the 'DEER CROSSING' sign from our road. The reason: 'Too many deer are being hit by cars on this stretch of road! I don't think this is a good place for them to be crossing, any-more.' Story from Potters Bar, Hertfordshire. IDIOT SIGHTING No 4 My daughter went to a local Kentucky Fried Chicken and ordered a Taco. She asked the person behind the counter for 'minimal lettuce.' He said he was sorry, but they only had Iceberg Lettuce. From South Oxhey , Hertfordshire. IDIOT SIGHTING No 5 I was at the airport, checking in at the gate when an airport employee asked, 'Has anyone put anything in your baggage without your knowledge?' To which I replied, 'If it was without my knowledge, how would I know?' He smiled knowingly and nodded, 'That's why we ask.' Happened at Luton Airport IDIOT SIGHTING No 6 The traffic light on the corner buzzes when the lights turn red and it is safe to cross the road. I was crossing with an intellectually challenged friend of mine. She asked if I knew what the buzzer was for. I explained that it signals blind people when the light is red. Appalled, she responded, 'What on earth are blind people doing driving?!' She is a Local County Council employee in Harrow , Middlesex. (And she's NOT blonde) IDIOT SIGHTING No7 When my husband and I arrived at our local Ford dealer to pick up our car, we were told the keys had been locked in it. We went to the Service Department and found a mechanic working feverishly to unlock the Driver's door. As I watched from the passenger side, I instinctively tried the door-handle and discovered that it was unlocked. 'Hey,' I announced to the Fitter/Mechanic, 'it’s open!' His reply: 'I know. I already did that side.' This was at the Ford dealership in St Albans , Hertfordshire. STAY ALERT! They walk among us. AND THEY BREED!

I already thought you were a computer trading genius Tams......now I am beginning to wonder. (whats the emoticon for me shaking my head in dejection)

Just watched the video - figured I should I have a new method.....itchy scratchy balls....take two clouds, get some random numbers so no one else is using them, and then when they bend, buy a breakout, or sell a reversal....... Ichimoku clouds - wtf - a combination/variation of Donchian (sorry high and low channels) channels and moving averages, nothing new....but they must be good as ancient traders have been using them for centuries. ( I prefer the Kiwi super trend in combination with Donchian) If you are new to trading it might provide some food for thought and even if thats all Mr Booker provides then thats fine - he might be expensive but thats up to you......but then you should test it yourself......how many people would just go straight out and start trading the clouds - I would bet plenty. the most important thing that everyone misses is the original disclaimer.....you will likely loose money, this is high risk etc; etc; etc; If anything maybe Mr Booker should add- "you are likely to loose money trading..., but this might help" in which case you would only have yourself to blame for only hearing what you want plus you know what the one thing that every good con artist knows ---- you can only scam a scammer......so if he is, that kind of makes you one too.