SIUYA

I have been working on various ideas about buildding a position and letting it run automatically yes you need enough money to build a position, and the example I have used in the chart is a day whereby it runs..... I have gone down to a level in a range bar chart in order to put a lot of trades on, to test the system and see if the theory works.... It is rather simple - look to build positions (Se) on various simple moves. Then count reactions with the prevailing trend (s) and against the trend (x, and Sx) to notify of ends to the moves. I have not worked out exact exiting levels yet, and so far you have to determine if a day is likely to be a runner, but it is looking promising.Small losses for getting it wrong, good gains for letting it build a position. The other thing is to determine the qty to be entered each time - ie; fixed amounts, varying qtys for entry and exit....maybe I should just keep it simple. Point is when it runs you have to let it go. Otherwise, too often the itchy trigger finger telling you to try and pick bottoms can cause problems.....I am sure this happened around 10.00 am yesterday for some, and when it comes to exiting, its more along the lines of the exit triggers or potential exit triggers either building up, or taking you out slowly..... remember this is overkill regards the number of trades and is not going to be the main driver - these are more counters to try and keep things in check. An idea I am working on. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=28342&stc=1&d=1333611987

1..Take a nap on any quiet day is always part of the agenda....I too am over 40, but used to do it when at work in my 20s as well. Always raised a few eyebrows, but 20min cat nap fantastic. 2...we have a cleaner and I hate that stuff apart from hanging out the panties 3...listen to music, surf the net, rarely watch tv - too distracting for me unless i switch off the computer all together. 4...Work on automation or ideas (most of the time) Try to avoid the 5. Used to try it and found it created too many bad habits...see 4 6....see 4 7....I too am the chef, even though she is Italian she hates to cook. Otherdays -- I just turn it off and go to lunch when I just dont feel the mojo. I figure there is always something happening, but often you know its best not to even venture into the pond.

LOL....sorry for ruining the thread so early - us naysayers often do that. I recently conversed with Interactive brokers - a number of times as per normal - before they understood.....I had to ask them on their new TWS Mosaic system - where can I see some commission columns ???? They finally admitted -- ahh we forgot those.... .....it makes a big difference if you are doing a lot of small marginal trades. (currently the case for me while trying to test some higher than normal automation )

add.....dont listen to your f..n partner carry on about holidays, airport bookings and trying to save 20 pounds while trying to trade as it costs you $1000s when you are trying to answer her inane questions. add...deep breath in, put kitchen knife away, present her with a bill later

no commission and slippage???

Joshdance - I think you are 100% correct - and maybe, just maybe the thread might help this. Developing a system using computers is the easy part - optimising it to make a fit a time frame, instrument or type of market is even easier. Using it to trade profitably over a long period of time - not so easy. Learning that a lot of this "might" be a complete waste of time is probably not a waste of time.

"If someone thinks they can improve on it, please make a suggestion." try adding guideline number 1 "only take positions in the direction of the trend when it enters the box." The trend being subjective - but in my case a visual look at your chart tells me in the example, it was down, so only take shorts if they break below the low of the box.

prunes and a good dose of fiber can often help. :haha: (sorry zdo - could not help myself when a google inspired targeted add triggered some juvenile humor on my behalf == all when I was doing nothing but looking for a recipe.... as a side note I did a quick lesson pranayama on the weekend and the guy was talking a lot about various flows and bodies in a similar sense)

wrbtrader - dont be too harsh the indicators indicate the price action. and isn't this the age old argument that even a price bar is an indicator of sorts !!! all this has spurred me to think I will rephrase myself "I am a context trader." ....now how do I define that and get something to indicate it to me. (wrb = also as a side note checked out your site....well done good work, highly recommended)

you mean a bullish break of a fingerlookinggood pattern after a bullish run in a bear market is different to a bullish break of the same fingerlookinggood pattern after a bearish fall in a bull market ? dont worry - the same probability distribution patterns are used by options sellers and risk managers.....dont tell them....shhhh.

Unfortunately you dont have much choice in the matter if everyone has to speak the same language. Otherwise imagine the gobbledy gook that would come out when trying to describe the same ideas. Remember when everyone used to talk about "just floating out on the ocean that is the market waiting to catch the right wave." or the other one about "support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support". While I share your sentiment......it seems it the best solution.,.....unless of course your idea is that its all propagated by vendors on the latest craze. I am waiting for the cosmic Mayan calendar and Goat testicles phase to come back into vogue. i just ask the magic eight ball everyday....nothing to do with price. I have two setups - one is called - "makes money some of the time:" the other "sometimes makes money some of the time" both have the same desired effect "get into the market with a reasonable probability that if you are right you will make some money and if you are wrong you will loose very little"

you now just have more money to contribute to the pool! Lining up target now....... Let me tell you about this great money making venture I have that will make you even more money and protect your assets well into the future.

At a guess I think you will find everyone has different responses on different but similar trades and the number of parameters in this will be potentially huge. Hence the need to standardize things. One day your flight radar will be on, another day the fight.... eg; if you have a position and it is going your way your response may be different if.... a....your previous trade/day/week/series of trades was a looser, b...your wife/husband/kids are nagging you c....you have not eaten lately (thats makes some people definitely more anxious mainly due to hormones as scientists have recently found out more about) d....are you normally trading from the long side and this is a short or vv e....is it against the trend, or with the trend as you define it. f.....did you get in on an intuition or a rule based idea g....etc. then what if its not going your way..... I often open up my computer look at a few charts and then say to myself - what do I think. If any further analysis confirms that then great.....before reading anything, before having other opinions......you could also do this at the end of each day, and then compare it at the start of each day. Or have a checklist of thoughts to match off your instinct - eg; is my instinct telling me something or is it messing with my mind. Sure if you need to react ultra fast then it might be a different story but like every muscle training technique it needs to be practised - instinct for trading (and not involuntary erections and the like ) generally need to be practised....unless you are a freak golden child., so even if you can recognize it - how do you know that it is reliable unless you really record it, or can justify it. you will remember the good instinctual times and forget the bad ones

Normally I dont read other peoples views (personal preference) and stumbled on this and laughed - normally I would agree with you, however while trying to automate stuff its these two which are giving the most problems without radically over tweaking/optimizing things :crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap::crap: where as the EURUSD works reasonably well. :doh::doh: and yes the EURAUD has been the winner. :roll eyes thanks

I think my two previous posts agree with you, but ultimately get down to your original post - how to combine the two so they are not in conflict, and as per many things until you are having to write things down often the thoughts are constantly in conflict. So my conclusions thanks to this thread are a bit more clearer even though they were already in my thoughts.........so thank you. - the conflicts will occur when you mix setup and entry/exit or timeframes. If you use intuition for one, or the other, and rules/logic for the second you can get the best of both worlds without conflict. history will tell which one is the right combination for you and weather you can trust your intuition or its used in the right combination.

A good point.... I have been trying to quantify this very thing for a computer and I cannot get it to how I like, as it is the combination of both that a computer (or at least I cant get it to do so) cannot combine both. For me it seems having both a strict and structured rule based setup and entry/exit system is not working, whereas if you go either strict and structured entry and exit with a general setup, OR a strict and structured setup with a general entry exit then you are getting the best of it....... I was wanting to try and set up an automated system that covers many instruments, long, short, all markets....but I dont think I am able to (not enough computer skills, power or ability, annoyingly so) so it seems I am heading down the road of compromise.....general structures, with more rule based entry and exit the computer can handle once I establish generally what I am looking for ---- the opposite of you, but in the same rationale I guess. Thanks for the food for thought and ideas....clarity etc; Neither path is right or wrong (I hope ) its what works and utilizes a persons strengths the best and ultimately while I hope I dont waste time and effort too much you do wonder if we should just be happy with what we do.....but then man never would have left the cave!

Initially I wanted to agree with your statement but when writing my answer I switched... I think it is almost the opposite. It is a fine line between too much information, v too much superfluous information v not being able to discern the relevant information from a lot of information. You need to be able to quickly get the relevant signal out of the noise, and yet to do so you do need to look at the noise....you cannot eliminate it. More of it is ok, so long as we "detach" from it. The experiment (and subsequent live time use) shows that the intuitive section of the brain can actually pick up the signals quick enough, without us registering the noise, and it is not a matter of filtering the noise as such it is a matter of filtering the recognition of the signal. So it seems rather than trying to eliminate the noise having a lot of it its not actually the problem it is the discernment of the signal whilst ignoring/not registering the noise. One of the reasons people look at longer term charts and then drill down I guess they try to eliminate the noise, but this in itself might cause a problem as it gives conflicting results and causes more indecision. It seems to be that you are better looking at a lot of noise rather quickly and letting the intuition register a "now that looks interesting". By eliminating the noise, you eliminate the texture/flavour/subtle context.....we underestimate the power of our brain. We should keep it and let intuition decide which patterns are the tastiest. Floor traders are able to do exactly this - they register the relevant signals from the noise, and it is not a matter of eliminating it, and yes it seems screen traders to a certain extent are disadvantaged in that by eliminating noise we might be going the wrong way about it, by locking into the logical mind too much we miss the point........food for thought, (maybe that's why I seem to trade better when I have music on, I listen to that and its only when something piques my interest (my intuition) that I get excited, and yet other times something such as a TV becomes too distracting, and other times there is the need to focus and turn off all distractions.) This is rather different to the original example from roztom but I guess it is something to think about

Floor traders (I used to be one) react a lot to the noise, plus the difference of being on a floor was that you got to make the most of any inefficiencies, you generally saw everything and how/who exactly was buying/selling.... among other things, so even though instincts were built from that environment, they could still be explained by certain things. I guess the point is instinct to be trusted has to have a basis for it. AND Even experience to be considered worthwhile needs to be shown to be worthwhile. (I am always remember that great old thing I am sure we have all had said to us, and maybe some of us are at that stage we say it to others ....it goes along the line of....." I've been driving for 20/30/40 years young man and I know how its done." when in actual fact it might have been better said "I have been driving badly for all those years and never really proved that my driving was any good") The program I mentioned was from the BBC Horizon series - I could not see it on their site though. the basis for this one little section in the program was this..... Military personnel often have to scan satellite pictures of earth looking for building etc; of interest. This is difficult with large areas. So what these scientists did was chop each large image up into smaller sections, and then they showed the subject an image similar to what they were meant to be looking for (the test image). eg; a building in a desert. At the same time they registered the pattern the brain registered when this test image was seen and studied. The next step was to rapidly show the larger image broken into much smaller segments, and to record which smaller images registered in the brain with the same scan as the test image. Far faster than we could recognise them, the brain picked it up and recorded the scan and registered it to the image. They then showed the larger image with the registered hotspots for closer inspection. The scanning this way improved both the time taken to scan images and the accuracy by (from memory) 300%. Fascinating stuff.....I was thinking of asking the university professors for some equipment Its what many of us do every day anyway, and computer scans as they stand only provide some of the picture, its this little hidden part that it seems you are trying to capture. Either way the rationale is there, we just need to be able to quantify it.

You still should be able to answer why your intuition is right or wrong....regardless of where it comes from. You might not be able to pin it down right at that point in time but historically if you record when you get these flashes then you should be able to work it out. As intuition comes from a flash to the mind, then just flicking through charts until the one that catches your eye is usually enough to tweak further investigation, however to get value out of then you still need to know how to act on it. If you are just watching a chart and waiting for something to happen then I think that is a dangerous way to apply intuition. It has to come from somewhere, from experience and with a bit of time this should be quantifiable to a certain extent (maybe not enough to tell a computer ) As an aside I saw a great program recently about using the brain as a better tool for scanning maps than a computer....I will try and dig up the program reference.

dont you just mean thank god we have the ability to reason despite our instincts

truth in advertising http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=28201&stc=1&d=1332920568

instantly recognisable as a German Autobahn looks like Alps - I took a guess at the Little Petite St Bernards Pass based on probably flawed intuition and a dodgy memory, as i remember it had a s...t load of twists and turns. Otherwise no idea.

A lot will depend on the broker you use, their available short book inventory (the whole prime brokerage area of short borrowing is largely built around relationships and inventory) This will also likely determine their process. Additionally after the recent witch hunts to make the shorters pay, various countries have different rules and issues regards the process involved.....and at a guess brokers will treat retail differently to wholesale/professional clients. So in an attempt to answer after saying that.... 1...it should not happen a lot -, but a lot will depend on the stock, its free float liquidity etc; if you are sticking to the main stocks it should not be an issue. Most brokers should give you a list showing whats is "tight" and hard to borrow. Plus if you really want to keep on top of it, you often need to watch this and make a judgement call. It can happen that you are called back while others are not.....preferential treatment. 2...share availability again depends largely on the stock and the broker you use. For your example it should be no problem --- however check with the broker as usually you have to pre-arrange available short. ie; they will say there is 600,000 available you ask to reserve some of this, alternatively you will no straight away if its rejected and not everyone will form a rush on it....so dont fret too much. Just be aware of the exact process of how they will allocate you availability and how quickly you need to secure its loan before hand. This will explain more. 3...I have never noticed, except to repeat the often quoted mantra of stocks fall quicker than they rise, so i guess it depends on if you are shorting into strength or weakness. Other issues off the top of the head you need to think about are.... ...costs of borrowing, different brokers and different stocks apply different charges sometimes these are passed along as a % cost per annum plus maybe a minimum charge. ....be very careful of dividends and certain countries have franking issues (eg; Australia) with regards different tax rates ....be careful about corporate events - eg; takeovers, people playing convertibles int hose stocks etc. Not only can you get hit on a short squeeze but also a short covering squeeze. There is nothing worse than having to be the only one buying stock back as you have to cover and you know you are the only one buying it. For your size this might not be an issue, but it can happen and you just become part of the same crowd. .......talk to the stock lenders, they are probably some guys in the back office who never talk to traders and are treated poorly by some. If you can take them out buy them a drink, its amazing how that might go along way when they need to do you a favour.

LOL...sim fishing what about those people who create virtual worlds in cyberspace like second life. Greedy bastards, one life is not enough for them !

I would say its the conscious brain that helps discern the difference. These are trades whereby you can actually look at a chart and say - the trend is down, I should short, BUT its very close to support, its actually just retraced 50-61% of the last move up, its what appears to my eye an abc pattern - so the best thing to do is to wait until a rally to short it rather than shorting it now on momentum. A lot will depend on the instrument and the context of course. eg; are we in 2008 or not, is this a mean reverting instrument like a currency that in % terms does not move that much over the course of a year, unlike an individual stock. Point is for me - a marginal trade is one that could probably be entered at a more favorable level that just doing it now. How I handle it is by asking myself simple questions like - "do I need to be in the trade, is there a better opportunity to enter, where will I make the proper money over the course of the week and not immediately" (does not always work and I understand the issues you are talking about) Whereas a friend who has made serious amounts of money trading is ridiculously good at it. When the markets suit him he will switch on, when they dont he switches off....maybe for weeks, months at a time. I cant do that, he can and he is very good at it. In his mind he waits for the right type of market, is prepared to use a lot of leverage and then he becomes completely focused. For him, marginal trades are those whereby the market does not suit him. He handles it by not being focused all the time, whereas his unconscious mind seems to know when to step up - again he is not always right but when he is its scary - when next I see him I will ask him.