SIUYA

Ultimately you need to make sure your system allows this, otherwise you get issues regards average prices. To a large extent it is all about accounting, but you still need to use what ever system allows you to do this easier. I separate longs in one account and shorts in another to allow multiple opens sometimes.....its a pain but easier to work with rather than having systems cut and then reverse. As per Onesmith, are you using Easylanguage (i think thats it?), whats the broker allow, do they allows mulitple entires and exits...or do they amalgamate. dont you have LIFO, FIFO issues in the US (I dont know too much about these but have seen issues raised by others)

1...I just look at it and trust my first impressions.(the long term being maybe 1-2 years) 2...I am not currently looking at it, but at a quick glance. Yes, but I dont like the overall market fundamental context and sentiment, and I dont like the fact that the pullback has been quite violent after making new highs in April. That to me is always worrying. 3...yes in a general sense, but this is probably where i throw in the subjective fundamental viewpoint. I have tried a lot of filters, but they miss a lot and lag too much, unless you are trading that time frame. (Even the big instos dont hold for decades. They may match indexes but they turn over their portfolios much more than that, with re-weightings. Too much many passive investors would argue) As per most users it depends on the time frame you are trading, the strategy you want to apply as to how you want to use this.

This is the beautiful thing about interpretations. :doh: and the rule of unintended consequences. Unfortunately M, thats how a lot of things on the net are taken, especially when as a first post to a thread starter. I think every one has been guilty of it at some stage, and I also agree with your assessment about experts...its just that as a community, discussions need to be encouraged and then dissected, for good or bad....otherwise the community dies. It seems that we are three pages into it and no more vol trader. I have not read the books /studies he mentions, and it seems no one else reading here has either and so it may have died before any value was uncovered or debunked.

Similar price pattern, but in reverse. Downtrend in place, a good rally against the downtrend. The crossover of lows,or at least the touching of it alerts to look for opportunities to sell. abc rally up, and you can either preempt it with a waiting sell, or wait for a down move to start and go with that, if you were aggressive, there was possible two gos at it. The first no real abc had occured....however, these might be less likely if the downtrend is strong....worth a go IMHO, you could have had a 4-5 tick stop, or even moved to BE quickly. 2nd attempt definately worth it. again maybe a 7-9 tick stop. On writing this - curently at 1.2710--1.2714, and not looking like its going on with it, when this is where I think it should accelerate down.....hence, move stop to BE. (disclaimer - I did not take either of these trades as I was distracted doing a few other things and did loose a small amount earlier in the day pre-empting a short- for no apparent reason apart from a punt, and I was impatient. Trying to get on board early a few extra points :doh:....hence the vibe is not with me today - so I stopped trading. Additionally as its Friday afternoon and after about 3pm London time, I often find the move for the day becomes chop, me no likey) Point is the same - small risk, patience, similar pattern similar, and stick to the knitting. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29019&stc=1&d=1337351414

Mystic _ i was desperately looking for the "shudders and weeps uncontrollably" button in response to that picture.

Voltrader - please do get involved. there are plenty here and elsewhere that do carry on like internet fascists, but its all part of the game, there are also plenty of interested participants who may also not agree with you, but that should help clarify even your own thoughts/ideas. - as in trading you have to have thick skin. dont forget - the majority who trade in the market are often wrong, and things can be misinterpreted.... Given your mention of options you may have a lot more to offer than others. The green trading mention now seems so obvious. :doh: karoshiman is smarter than me.

I used MC, NT now I use IB and SC. IMHO There's another bugbear....but more a funny one....acronyms. just as IMRO used to be the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation, the precursor to the FSA, the UK equivalent of the SEC in the USA.... now if you goggle it is either the Irish Music Rights Organisation or the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, WTF.

just adding an idea of what you can do... sell the rallies in the downtrend, when they start to move down again but take partial profits, moving the rest to break even.(Normally my preference but not in this case) this allows you to book partial profits in case it continues to consolidate or rally, or build a bigger short in case it continues, but still giving comfort in locking in some profits. If you are purely day trading, then you could look to take profits continually. (Occasionally you might get caught and wear a bigger loss, but its a numbers game) (My preference in this case - take partials, then trail the stop using a abc pattern again which has a possibility of forming as shown in the picture. But lets wait and see...... EDIT: stop moved to1.2704 if "close of the bar is above that (that one is for you Joshdance ) - (this might mean its stopped above this)) Or you could let it all ride. Again nothing fancy about it. you could have entered in at any of the swings. This was just the most recent one I put on today almost randomly as i was waiting) For me this means you can build big positions using lots of small trades, each of them having small risk. ( EDIT:-- One point that just shows here as well is that you dont need to get the timing spot on, or pick the top, apart from comfort sake, when trading with the trend (as you define it) to make money. Usually moves will continue, and you odds of picking the bottom and buying there are the same as you odds of picking the bottom and selling there. ) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29003&stc=1&d=1337250390 (Ps_ writing this stuff live time - is tough, and distracting - kudos to anyone who can do it.)

adding to yesterday. There is nothing scientific about it, it requires a bit of an art, but if you follow some strict guidelines it gives you a good indication of a heads up. It works for any time frame - i use range bars as to me they give a clearer picture of the ebb and flow. Its about looking for signs in the market that things have changed, and you should too. (The blue dots are alerts for breaks) Look for overlapping swing highs, ideally with a violent reaction and not a grinding wall of worry (these walls are usually better shorted), a clear three wave retracement.....you have to assume that this is most likely to continue the downtrend.(except that you have been alerted by the overlapping violent retracement it may be different) Look for the small break near the three wave wave equality level - likely to also co-incide with the previous low. (again nothing scientific - its an estimate) It helps confirm to me that the recent downmove is going to take a break/rest. (interestingly enough, while these things have occured 2-3 times on the way down, they did not make an immediate abc move up (signed by the break) They generally did not break, or were immediately preceded by a lower low of some sort - you need to see a higher low for the break mentioned to be worth it), ie; they didn't really do it)) Plus EVEN if you take a few of these and decide to get aggressively bullish and try and pick bottoms, the trade is likely to be very short lived and very inexpensive). The next step is - what does this then mean for what I should do.... This all depends on the strategy you are employing, the time frame you are looking at etc; etc. There are lots of ways to do it. You could emply a bullish strategy, but have really close stops, and take profits, you could be more discerning with your short entries, you could be more willing to take profits of shorts more quickly...... If you were in a longer term up trend, then why not try and pick the bottom of the retracement with the aim of letting it really run once on board. (not this time IMHO) so it allows you to time reentries into the trend. But for me this is the context that allows me to make decisions about the best strategy to employ. (one reason why I dont think there is a holy grail, or a one size fits all. Its about context, looking for patterns, application of flexible strategies and then doing all these in a repeatable, consistent manner - very contradictory ) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29002&stc=1&d=1337248085

so what " historical graphical representation of prices that transactions took place at within a particular market." - ing package do you use to see your price action?

gee Mitsubishi give the guy a chance - he has come one with what seems like something that is actually based in some factual breakdown of the markets. In summary maybe it shows using facts/analysis - not subjective reasoning - you should have patience and be selective in the markets and that you dont have to trade all the time - wait for the right opportunities. If the books on Amazon are anything to go by it seems a little more scientific. Now it may be academic and academics dont usually do that well in the markets however the point of academia is usually to expand knowledge and ideas not make money. It seems to me that if if the first criticism you have is that "tell me something I dont already know" then you think you are the expert on everything. (voltrader - before you get flamed - beware that if you are selling anything thats fine but you should register as such, I say as I noticed Green Trading in your sign off...whats that.) Otherwise as I like to read about new things as well as stir up Mitsuibishi sometimes this thread might be interesting, or it might have all been said and done before.

This is a nifty little pattern I look for. Nothing special but it probably more a good profit taking point. Or reasonable way to punt a bounce. Very simple, breaks above recent swing highs after a bigger move down move. Followed by an ABC down move, buy the first ABC up. Small risk if it runs (one account has put this on as a quick trade) , but most likely tells me that a consolidation may occur, so take partial profits, all profits, OR be a bit more hesitant in adding to extra shorts. (my preferential choice in this case) It just happens the timing is good for this as well. (when more time a better explanation if required) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=28989&stc=1&d=1337163422

exactly. IMHO trends occur in the time frame you are looking at, so trade those and apply the setups and entries and exits that apply to that time frame. While its fine to maybe look at smaller time frames to try and improve/fine tune the entries, you dont want to fall into the trap of confusing yourself by saying, on the daily chart its a donwtrend, the 60 minute its an uptrend, on the 5 min chart its a downtrend. Also If you have a system that works while testing on the 5min charts, works on the 10 min charts, but does not work on the 6,7,8,8.5 min charts then maybe its not a great system (dependant on slippage and commissions etc). Hence the requirement to remain consistent.

not being a trekky and not knowing the Kobayashi Maru problem i had to look it up. Kirk says that the exercise is a true "no-win scenario," because there is no correct resolution; it is a test of character. Isn't it already called Wall street and lobbyists v customers.

isn't that where context comes into play..... sometimes, the odds vary depending on where in the scheme of things your pattern is occurring. Which is why a lot of this is only really able to be looked at from a historical perspective -ie; to say "when I use this pattern it gives me this sort of R:R", to then set this in stone does two things - it means you will not ever increase the R:R ratio in your favour, and if the past does not represent the future then its more likely than not to actually diminish with time (???) Hence why have a fixed R:R as opposed to a guideline of what to expect?

I had to laugh at myself..... it is actually a two sided question when you think about it. "How much volume come into the forex market when it moves to one tick - e.g. Let's talk about Euro/USD - If the price of euro moves to 1.2910 to 1.2911 - How much volume of buying has came into the market to move it to one tick." If you are measuring and recording price ticks, then the answer is theoretically zero (or the minimum volume bid required if there is one) If you are measuring and recording trades, then the answer is what ever trades at a price. If nothing trades it is only a market that has been made and nothing needs be recorded. To actually tell how much volume is required might actually be irrelevant. You just need some one to make a market there to actually move the bids or asks....or is there a minimum required volume necessary....I dont know. Exchange traded market makers normally have minimums, can you supply a bid or an ask in FX without volume - I would think yes - then its up to your customers on how reliable you are to fill volume there. Dont really know now that i think about it. (luckily its been irrelevant to me so far - but a good question)

karoshiman - if that is true then I have learnt a new thing....hence there is never a stupid question coming from equities I have always assumed it to be exactly the same thing. It needs a trade to be recorded, and given the volume in FX and my trading style I have never needed to worry about it. I have also never seen it described as you say, everything I have seen implies that it requires a trade to be recorded. (assuming we are talking about the ECN market and not just swaps with a fx broker who may or may not transact with anyone but themselves and never record trades except in house) In equities you can have someone bidding 1.2910, asking 1.2911, and no trades occurring there, and hence no recorded volume. If say this was on a high point, and the next trade is 1.2908, then that is what would show as the high trade in historical charts. I have never seen it any other way. If that is true that bids and asks and not trades are recorded, then the answer to the original question is theoretically zero....or is it the same answer - the minimum that is required to be on a bid or offer. Or does it again depend on the broker/data provider and how they recorded it, which is why different brokers charts have different ticks recorded? interesting, can you show this is how its recorded? thanks.

topical given your first story and JP Morgan.....all similar except different sizes. Year 2000, my last day working for a firm, last expiry day before I handed over a largish options book to the next guy, we were all leaving on good terms so i left it fairly flat. 5 minutes to go till the close I managed to reduce pin risk (in options trading terms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pin_risk_(options)) by legging out the ATM strike. (for those with little options knowledge dont worry too much) Problem was I needed to hedge the underlying. Problem was I bought instead of sold and so went doubly long. Managed to unwind it for a few cents loss right on the close (I know I did the main volume of selling) but the brain explosion from such a simple thing right at the end of everything after a lot of experience always makes me nervous about checking which button. I now use pretty colours more.

Mystic - is that a double top pattern i see?

it was designed to make you think....and there is no such thing as a stupid question. Basically it takes whatever minimum volume it requires to record a trade tick. In futures it would be one contract. In FX it depends on your broker. They may record a trade when no one else does, and it may be on very small volume...hence my reference to asking have you ever bought a top or sold the bottom as a retail trader. I know I have for various moves.

have you ever purchased or sold right at the top or bottom of a move? If so how much volume did you trade there? There in lies an answer.

I assume this was partially directed to what I said.....except that as Tams often reminds us, if you can think logically through your system and explain it to a computer, then why not? Additionally as a trading system is generally made up of many components, position sizing, adjusting stops, adjusting targets, adding units, etc; why not? You could have different people do different sections. the hard part is explaining exactly what you want, and having a reasonably rudimentary understanding of how programs work would help regardless of the system. difficult yes, getting expensive maybe, but not unrealistic unless you have so much discretion , and even then you can automate aspects of it...... A lot will depend on what you are trying to do, and then maybe some systems are overkill, or some retail systems will not provide enough. The more comprehensive the system the more options I would have thought the better if what you are trying to do is going to be extensive, otherwise any system might just do. The other advantage SC has is that it has a simple method of auto trading from spreadsheets, and its even easier than using easylanguage.....all depends on what you need.

yes I do believe it. Losses can occur in stable markets, I also think that they will have more losses to come. It is probably exactly as they say that happened. ie; we used more leverage than before, traded bigger than before, were sloppy, thought we had enough risk controls to trade bigger than before and what the hell we will get bailed out....we learnt nothing and arrogantly thought we knew better Basically they f...d up I think this article covers most of it JPMorgan Chase discloses $2-billion trading loss - latimes.com so no I dont believe in the conspiracy theory, but each to their own.

adding to what Kiwi says - I use Sierra Charts as well and find it is a comprehensive great value for money system. I would say, the advantage to testing in the program you will use for trading is that you can then use the program to then actually apply the test. You dont want to spend a lot of time testing an idea only to find that it might not necessarily be able to easily be applied by a system or a lot of modifications are needed. (this would apply to any system) If what you need is not too complicated you can also pay other programmers via the SC site, and I have found this to be a very good value method of doing things. A lot depends on complexity and maintenance.

Just kick the can you have been kicking down the road off the cliff after him.