SIUYA

it was never going to be on topic...a bit like asking which do you prefer to watch NBA or NFL or NFI. crack nicky nake = grab a snake by the tail and try and crack its back - did not work for me, so i threw it and ran as a teenager nark =shark

I am not sure I assumed anything .... in your response, you took the US centric view, even if you may not be American, to point out Bluehorseshoe that he should refer to US tax law. who cares..... as yes Karoshiman I am Aussie living in London....and just for a few stereotypes - I am generally relaxed until pushed or have a passion, I dont really care for sport but i like to watch it and participate in idividual pursuits, I dont think I am a "bogan", , I dont own a kangaroo but have shot and eaten a few, have craked a nicky nake, never wrestled a croc or nark, I can hold a 30 min conversation without really saying much, and I know you can shorten Wagga Wagga to just Wagga whereas you cannot do the same for Woy Woy. (IMHO when it comes to driving Aussies are the most aggressive and bad tempered (not crazy tho) in the world compared to their normal state of being.)....

I am no expert on this, but I think you are missing the point of the restrictions on selling the stock. This is a murky area that could lead to dismissals, unlikely much more than this unless you are a key decision maker in the firm. Best check your employment contracts and seek proper legal advice.

My point was that you took the normal US world view that the rest of the world does not exist. (believe it or not its one of those funny but too often true stereotypes that occur for many US citizens, and I was more or less teasing you ...I am sure me as an Australian hit other peoples buttons as well) Check out this - BBC News - Major UK companies cut secret tax deals in Luxembourg The UK is one of the worlds great tax havens and the place where all the rehypothecation occurs. It is the main reason why its one of the worlds financial capitals. As a non Domiciled resident in the UK I can tell you I can effectively pay no tax if I choose to , it is largely only US citizens that are stuck with your issues. Blue is treading the line of doing things too simply, and ultimately the tax man looks at issues such as control, ownership and where decisions are made. Plus Blue just trade CFDs (I have been involved in some companies where a day trip to Dublin, or Luxembourg easily get around that - as ridiculous as it is this is what happens here and it is all legal) The UK government is slowing clamping down on this with recent law changes such as a 15% stamp duty on houses bought in trusts, changing the non dom rules etc. Such a shame , the only reason to stay in London soon will be its not part of Europe, but still close enough to pretend.

move along ...nothing to see here..... 1....retail traders v large managers.....pointless comparing returns as there are liquidity issues, clients to consider, varying leverage allowances, regulatory hurdles, capital constraints, 1 person v many under a portfolio etc etc etc. 2....large managers returns will likely deteriorate for a number of reasons, a....they were never aiming for massive returns as no one would beleive them, b....liquidity issues, c....broking costs (they are sometimes smart enough to realise its best not to over trade), d....reversion to the mean, e....clients get too nervous and hence they have clients and a business to contend with. 3.....when someone, anyone discusses returns weather or not monthly or daily or yearly please add all the other vital information that needs to go with it....ie; drawdowns, leverage used, trades and volumes.....then you can judge if its scalable and or sustainable. 4....larger funds as mentioned approach things as a portfolio, spread risks, often have a large number of bums on seats depending on how many funds or markets they are covering, and are often benchmarked. 5....individual traders and larger insto are subject to the same market conditions, and unless you are big enough to influence things (can happen eg; a large fund manager saying to a stock - you should issue X debentures at this rate and we will take them all) the real advantage you might have over smaller guys is access to more research or ideas. (spoofing will not stop the market - it may influence it yes, but c'mon - plus its largely considered illegal (??) ) As a small guy you have nimbleness and the ability to do nothing on your side....that's about it.....these in themselves are of a great advantage..... for some strategies IMHO the bottom line is - if I get 10% on a large pot of money, i would take that any day over 200% on a small pot that i cannot scale. Karoshiman - "Fair enough. But you can still make money as an individual if you understand such behavior of funds" - better understanding the behaviour of the market as its made up of many participants, ideas, opinions, strategies and such. Now back to the point of is TA debunked.....???

As much as your criticism of Blue horseshoe may have validity....Unfortunately gosu - you should realise not everyone in the world is a US citizen...I hope that does not reflect on your trading abilities

like most things debunked..... $100,000 leverage 10x verses $10,000 leveraged 100 times....whats the rate of return? or should it be on exposure, or margin used, or risk taken..... "annualise that" - always the call before the downfall.

it depends on where the sex toys are made - I hear they quite like the German ones, but hate it when there are taxes applied.

Real test from a fundamental point of view may be if the QE spectre raises its head again with Greece, and Spain recent downgrades, more money printing, and the specter of inflation again (even though Gold has been a horrible measure for this) ..... if there is not a lot of rallying from that - heading south. Otherwise all bets off.

The previous debate between other posters over ratios is interesting.....they are all ratios (A "ratio" is just a comparison between two different things. - in our terminology its expressed as a percentage of a "move"/"wave" - in terms of extensions or retracements) The difference is that as said, 50% is not a fibonacci ratio or related to the fib sequence of numbers.....however its still a ratio that probably has a valid relevance to my trading style and the way I view the markets.....to me thats all that counts. As we know that even small things can make a big difference, and yet you dont need to be too exact to get value (eg; 49%, 50%, or 51%), however it is scary how often the exact number is hit. Notice how many people seem to use the MA numbers of 21 and 34.....this can be tested via optimisation - i dont know or care if theses are valid, but they are fib numbers. Given your first question about fibs do you not find it ironic that you pick supply and demand and cycles to lean on, which could be argued are just as subjective. Its what ever works based on how you view the markets. IMHO, and then how in the context of things you apply things. eg; if your cycle or ratio is telling you to buy, and things are in a downtrend, or some other element is saying this is a high risk low return trade, then it might be best to skip the trade. For what ever gets used its about 1....whats the market doing, 2....where can i get in an profit from this whereby if i get it wrong, i loose little, if i get it right i make good money. Then looking at both of these and trying to find a more consistent/systematic way to approach it (rather than coin tossing). All this has to fit in with how you view the market moves/works - otherwise you will get a mismatch in thought and invariably problems. Re the FREE - its all marketing. Period. No different to any shop offering discounts. Remember not all brokers trade against you....some actually want you to make money, increase size, and keep paying brokerage. (a bit old school) Re keeping it simple - can we - yes, and I think your suggestion is a good start. (unfortunately as humans we like to complicate things) Keeping with the fib numbers....i like to keep it simple - 50% works as a tool in my toolkit to signify a zone of either entry, or taking profits, and 61.8% tells me that maybe the 50% tool was not the best one for the job.

what in particular are you confused about? There are plenty of examples already on this site and others.

no probs....i think your point is valid. Years ago I read two books. One was called "trading with the Gods", the other "The Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich* (Dohson) Much the same result except one approached it from a mystical, magic secret sauce (IMHO crap) approach. The other from a more practical standpoint. I went with soul traders original view. Keep it simple, keep it simple keep it simple. As per real life I guess the maths whizs and engineers could tell you. I think in life there are definately cetain ratios that work and make sense - eg; stair raisers, building proportions, and the like. Additionally there are certainly aesthetically pleasing ratios - The Math Behind the Beauty and maybe markets based on human traits have similar ratios. I just need to remember Keep it simple, keep it simple keep it simple. To a certain extent, computers are like the modern day sirens of the sea allowing us to do ever more complicated things (and there are those who maximise this and do it well - IMHO Wall street is not it. Wall st is there to redistribute money and take a clip not to trade), and thats great, but often its too distracting, tempting to want to perfect the maths. There is that great joke i love - "Nasa spent millions researching and testing a pen that could write upside down in zero gravity for space missions but could not get one to work. When they asked the Russians what they used the answer was "a pencil""

good points - plus......Mitsubishi using a golf analogy - certain things have most certainly been debunked today!

To a certain extent this could be used to determine trend, imagine an imaginary measure clocking up various levels using a similar method.... I also think you need to take the position sizing a step further....assume your total risk you might like to take is -- R, and you are willing to go at something X times eg; Losing Trade 1: 1 contract, SL 10 ticks per contract (total risk X/R). Losing Trade 2: 2 contracts, SL 10 ticks contract (total risk X/R). Losing Trade 3: 3 contracts, SL 10 ticksr contract (total risk X/R). Then amalgamate this with something that pyramids into the winners as well. Then you are not so interested in picking great entries IF you pick the trend right. (this is more for building positions and trend following than day trading - plus I dont do it this way, but thought if going fully automatic this would be an interesting test. For me this works when you have a trend and you only go one way on it.... all food for thought)

Excellent I have them fooled..... The day big brother manages to get me to buy penny dreadful stocks using porn is they day they have mastered my domain!

thanks for the link - i had to laugh at the sponsored adverts below it that I got. All for building wealth using penny stocks! His latest blog entry Damodaran Online: Home Page for Aswath Damodaran still says it for me. Even with all the fundamental info, its still about price being required to be right in order to determine value. I think he will be a good read even though I dont really follow fundamentals.

not for eveyone, and potentially dangerous, but just as food for thought after you determine a trend and applicable only to some styles....... people have mucked around with variations of this, by missing the first signal after a winner or other such filters. there is also the idea that you increase your size with more losers..... eg; trade 1 size =1, lose....trade 2 size=2....lose, trade 3 size=3...win You need to make sure you dont pyramid and add to the losers you need to still cut them. downside to this is if you get it right early your size is small and has to start very small at the beginning! but if using this to build bigger longer term positions there is probably some ideas here. The other thing that needs to be remembered if you only go one way - ie; with the direction of the trend - you need to ensure you are right otherwise it might be a slow death unless your entries are very good.

Valid points except that using a fib example to talk about driving a car is like saying I plan to fly to the moon using nothing but mind power.....different tools, different applications. I think fib numbers can offer help in providing possible take profit, or retracement levels. By it self it might be limited, and there is a fair bit of subjectiveness in where to apply it. Using one tool in the tool bag would not make for a very good carpenter - or using your analogy - driving a car with just an accelerator and no brakes might be fun for a short period. re wall st - they are laughing as they take a clip, and many of them do use similar measures such as creative accounting to laugh even harder at the poor institutional punters. Myth number 1 - The retail guys dont feed wall street. and some Insto do use black boxes! Most of them are not the rational beings they are made out to be. Plotting anything on a chart does not make it true. It just needs to fit in with your view of the markets, money management, strategy, psychology, etc; etc; etc; otherwise it probably is superfluous.

All interesting .....but its a bit of a tired old argument (like passive v active investing, EMH) with each side pushing their barrow. It rather simple IMHO - you use the best tools - and thats all they are, that are available to you at the time. Whether its fundamental analysis, or technical analysis, or quant analysis. FA is debunked a lot as well, especially when it comes to most people, as they dont have the resources, time, knowledge, patience, funding, ability to tell if the accounts and management are lying etc; etc. I have not got any on me, but there are plenty of reports to show if you look at the fundamental calls most research analysts make they are pretty much similar to technicians - win some loose some. There is more to this game than analysis, and number crunching.

A great context pattern - you need either a lot of patience, or a lot of perserverance, but the payoff can be good. The key to this one, is not so much in recognising it while its happening, but when you see it and if you manage to get on board - either by selling near the resistance, or some other measure (5w up, reversal off high) - the point on this pattern is the move with the trend is normally a fanstatic one to let it ride - take off your small profit targets. (on writing this it is currently at 1.2585) Disclaimer: - I did get chopped this morning in that period - such is life - then managed to get some back -BUT i did not let it run, as I had left my TP switched on when I went to look at an apartment. Amateur error I seem to have done a few of those lately. :doh: no focus.... (these happen a lot when big trends occur - its the natural order of things....grind up, smash it down.) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29091&stc=1&d=1337782925

I get the if..then statements for the computer but how do you actually use the zone to test it? If the zone is defined by individual level then do you scale out within the zone or just use a re-entry into the zone - in which case it much the same as using something similar as a MA. OR do you use the zone as an extra filter and say - only if this occurs withinin or above/below the zone.....or do you try and implement the whole "system" thats all i quite like these sites i stumbled on once before....not as much selling as some. Main Page - IchiWiki - The Definitive Reference to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System Ichimoku Clouds - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com as mentioned to me its just a combination of hhv, llv, and mid points with some offsets, and people sometimes (deliberately maybe) confuse it to be more than that. to make money out of it as opposed to using it to help visualise something then I think the same issues as using MA may arise.........but if it works for you then great.

there is a good point Ob --- BH - can you test for zones using a computer, or is it it not binary enough (my brain cant think outside the box enough), I guess you still need a trigger of some sort.

icimoku - at a guess will be much the same as a moving avg as all they really are is the mid point of the donchian channels offset. I think they provide a good visual representation - so not to dismiss them Osidian, but I think they are often portrayed as a bit more than what they are , and they might offer less whipsaws as they are a bit more horizontal than MAs.....but thats all a guess. I would imagine the results would not differ that much. I use more doncian levels (or higher highs, lower lows) than MAs as they give me clearer levels of price.

spot on. from an article this says it all "But the German government is staunchly opposed to euro bonds until deeper integration and harmonization of budgetary and public spending policies have been achieved. Most Germans see euro bonds as another way for fellow European states to benefit from, and ultimately drag down, Germany’s unblemished credit rating." A lot of this past overborrowing could be attributed to the fact that the interest rates were to low for these countries and that they were already leaning too heavily on the stronger euro zone countries. While Euro bonds have been proposed to act as stability, we all know that in reality its like giving an addict a new addiction.

Unfortunately you will get a lot of gobbdlegook in this area of defining trend as there is a lot or room to maneuver in the long term . Tams has probably given you the simplest without any subjective element. on the other point of equity indexes and their propensity to trend up....yes a whole debate can ensue. I do think that different instruments and different markets do have different trending characteristics within a trend. It makes sense that they do in that they have different characteristics as a market, different constituents, different market forces and different market participants....so while a robust one size fits all trading plan and trend definition may be great, it may not make sense. Sticking just to equities - the indexes are made up of only the surviving instruments, and depending on how they are built up - market cap, or other weighted, then only thoses that survice and thrive naturally become dominant. The participants are generally long only participants, the underlying assets are designed to be about transferring wealth from customers to shareholders () via dividends and growth, there are restrictions on shorting, etc; etc. The big debate among equity fund investors is often about passive v active managers and the value they add, but even the passive ones often reweight, and the active ones still benchmark... Anyway - off topic a bit.....however point is the same. defining trend long term IMHO should be based on something simple and robust, but the entries and exits might be more tailored to different markets.