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Everything posted by SIUYA
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After checking the link here is your first feedback for your own review (and while it may be harsh you should learn from this I hope)..... Having traders vet your ideas and provide feedback on makes sense....but you cant find friends and family or different computers to test your payments system on? Also I am not so sure I would want to associate myself with some testimonial to people based on a small beta test, whereby for two months I saw a small subset of signals. What would you like the testimonial to say "It looks like it might work, call me in a year,", "I really think this could be a great system - but who really knows" I would be happy to have you send the signals to an email link, and then provide my personal review of them - so long as they were timely, made sense and you could actually profit from them. It would very much be unlikely it changes my trading style but always happy to help. In order to do that properly, it would probably help to see a track record of the previous trades and a brief synopsis of what you are trying to achieve in terms of the rationale of the trades, and how much you risk and expect to return etc......otherwise they may just be considered guesses....which is probably not what you want. send any correspondence to betatestreview@gmail.com
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suggestion..... sit down with your uncle, learn, learn, learn. See if he will back you with a profit share agreement with enough money to make it worth while for both of you, looking to build from a small amount....you dont need to just learn by yourself.....you can also use other people to help in other ways. If you have a real self defeating attitude then I would suggest you stay away from trading. If you merely have a 'fear' of loosing money that you worked hard to forget, then I think that is a god thing - what you need to do is work out how much "heat" you are comfortable with, and that is significant enough.....look up heat and trading on the net.. Basically, it sounds as if you are better off with risking smaller amounts on each trade.....you might not ever shoot the lights out, but you can make god returns.
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as you are young.....depending on where you are and possibilities - get a job in finance some how....or even you if volunteer at a place for three months, get your foot in the door somewhere that trades (not that just advises), probably a cheaper option than paying someone. You will always be lacking experience until you get it yourself - you cannot buy it, you cannot trade it you cannot substitute for it.....you can however as you correctly say learn from others experiences. As you dont have money - I would strongly advise you not to use money from borrowings to invest. A good credit rating is irrelevant except that it will allow others to fleece you as they will tell you to borrow. Also the best learning as advised is by SIM trading initially - but be aware of its issues/cons/disadvantages - SIM trading does not have the same psychological impact real trading does. It may not represent the same as live trading. It is a cliche but it cannot be repeated enough - trading will only work for you when you develop your own strategy based on your understanding of how a market works, you have tested that it works, and you can show it has a chance of working.....and then the rest is up to you not to stuff it up.
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unless you are scalping and really watching the screen for every tick, you might only be doing a few trades a day.....the rest is watching, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting. ....that's where the money is. , that's where the secret is. (please deposit 2cents in my pay pal account)
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After the recent MFGlobal disaster, not safe at all. In Canada your money might not even be protected under Canadian law if its is swept offshore and parked and rehypothecated in the UK. All I can say is be aware of exactly how and where you money is parked and even then there are no guarantees.
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Is this a banksy? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29736&stc=1&d=1341491140
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At a guess, I think trading with a trend could certainly make a difference, and it would likely let you get on any black swan event - the point being that if you are on at an extreme (ie; near the high or low for the day depending on direction) you would expect that a reversal toward the mean could accelerate. This is why you need some discretion of when to apply it. I also think trading in only one direction would certainly stop confusion, and the temptation to reverse and hence possibly compound problems if that is an issue. I think there is a lot of merit in it. Clears the mind, allows focus to say, I am not trying to capture every move, I am just looking for longs (or shorts) and the best opportunity for those....the rest I ignore. Or as TRO says he looks at stats showing which currencies revert back away from their highs and lows.....hence if there is a significant statistical reason to only trade in one direction then why argue with it.
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I dont think this has derailed the thread - its perfectly on line - talk about stops and profit targets , plus always happy to discuss almost anything.... that is it. You can actually look at the stats of each exit and see how often they are hit.....it can tell you if its often better to take everything off at the first time, or maybe its even better to let everything run.....its purely an accounting measure that allows you to cut and dice what you do a bit more. When you talk about taking half off quickly then lets say you are buying 3 contracts all in at the entry, with three separate rules for taking profits.....then in fact you have three separate strategies Yes...there is resistance every time there is a seller, and i understand we are talking about "significant expected" resistance, However.....in your example it sounds like you are on the 2nd and 3rd exits......and hence the question about chopping it up into separate strategies and seeing the results.... It does sound like you are buying 3 contracts in a rising market, taking profit on 1 maybe 2 into resistance and letting the last run for a possible breakout. This last one having the advantage that it was purchased prior the breakout and may not be shaken out on any small retracement at and around the resistance.. A far better way of playing breakouts maybe. Zdo (i think he is currently golfing) - it was one of his great sayings..and its true. Your strategy and my strategy may have the exact same entries, but the profit targets are different....it basically says, comparing strategies and saying this is an absolute truth is pointless. You may have all the confidence in the world...so may i - our trend time frames may be different - and yes you are right in how it works, but time frames are important (remember the 1987 crash - merely a blip on a chart now)- that is all. You may be looking for smaller profits with more rentries, or closer TP on the first two contracts and letting the last run, while I may sell 1 contract and run 2.... strategy specific. and we definitely agree regards where things are in context - i call them marginal trades. They are those that you enter a long in the equivalent of wave 9 - trying to capture the last bit of a wave, when you think its already near the high as per your average.. (I dont count as such but use visual cues)....however, a scalper might not care - strategy specific. All in all for me in trying to do the computer automation shows how much a difference it can make.....last night i ran a test on an idea......the longs made money, the shorts did not and this is in an instrument that was in a downtrend, and the entry was effectively the same (only inverse) - a lot had to do with modifying TP levels. The computer however is binary compared to humans and discretion.....interesting more than anything unless you want to curve fit too much.
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Stumbled on this article........not so relevant to most who are not licensed but also relevant to some. ................................. Avoiding Angst Over Online Reviews By Reuters Monday, July 02, 2012 Email this story | News Tracker | Reprints | Printable Version NEW YORK (Reuters)—Forget Facebook. Review sites such as Yelp, Angie's List, and even online telephone books including Google Places, are creating new compliance worries for financial advisers. Some advisers, who have barely mastered industry rules on their use of social media, are now concerned that online reviews praising their services may be considered forbidden "testimonials" or advertising — both of which are subject to securities industry regulation. A reviewer on Yelp, for example, described one wealth management firm as having "better track records" than big brokerages and as charging lower fees. That type of comment, say some advisers, may land them in trouble with regulators for violating rules that restrict testimonials and advertising performance results. And a bad review can damage an adviser's reputation. Yelp did not return calls requesting a comment. It is all muddying the waters in an online world that is quickly expanding and still confusing to advisers. While regulators and the securities industry are heavily focused on practices related to traditional social networking sites, such as Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, scores of other websites are cropping up, including those that encourage reviews. "I'm really tired of Internet companies that use our information," said Aryn Sands, director of operations at Silversage Advisors in Irvine, Calif. "It dominoes and you can't retract that information anymore." Among the biggest concerns: advisers often cannot always control whether their businesses become listed on some sites or take down reviews that appear. Subscribers to Angie's List, for example, can post reviews about their customer experiences with local businesses, including financial advisers, for the benefit of other subscribers. Angie's List will remove the review only in extreme circumstances, such as when the business owner can show that the reviewer was never a customer, said spokeswoman Cheryl Reed. No Entanglement Fortunately, many advisers do not have to fear a possible regulatory violation simply because someone posts a review on a third-party site, said Francois Cooke, a managing director at ACA Compliance Group in Boca Raton, Fla. For brokers, guidance from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority about social networking also sheds some light on concerns about third-party review sites. Brokerage industry rules make allowances for communications, such as reviews, posted by third parties on sites that advisers and brokerage firms do not control, Mr. Cooke said. Posts from third parties on review sites should not be a problem, at least for FINRA-licensed advisers, as long as they do not become "entangled" in the conversations, Mr. Cooke said. FINRA uses the term to describe when advisers take part in those conversations, such as by responding to comments, or linking to a stellar review through their firm's own website. It could happen simply by retweeting a client's Tweet about your investment savviness. Those actions could trigger a firm's responsibility to monitor and save the posts in accordance with industry rules, Mr. Cooke said. They could also be subject to the firm's compliance department, which may consider it advertising, he said. Telling clients to check out reviews about you is also a no-no. Hazy View The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which regulates registered investment advisers, is not as clear on the issues. Recent guidance on social networking discussed third-party posts mainly in the context of those made on the advisers' own site. For example, a "Like" by a client on an adviser's Facebook page may be considered a testimonial, according to recent SEC social networking guidance. But the SEC's broad view on testimonials leaves the agency a lot of wiggle room to consider just about anything else clients may write about their advisers online. "Whether a third-party statement is a testimonial depends upon all of the facts and circumstances relating to the statement," SEC staff wrote in the guidance. Advisers need to protect themselves, especially given the SEC's hazy definition, said Scott Peterson, co-founder of Relay Station Social Media LLC, a consultancy. Think twice before setting up profiles or advertising on review sites, he said. While a listing on Yahoo! Local, for example, may be tempting, it could have to comply with firm and industry advertising rules. The posts also may be subject to monitoring and saving, as required by industry rules. Many outside services that monitor online posts for advisers follow traditional social media sites, such as Facebook and Twitter. Most importantly: do not ask clients to post glowing reviews about your services. Nicholas Olesen, an adviser in King of Prussia, Pa., who is affiliated with LPL Financial, said he is ultra-cautious about keeping in check with not just industry rules, but his firm's own policies. "I discourage clients who want to (write reviews) for me," he said. By Suzanne Barlyn
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Hi Fast, Predictor is saying the same thing I am I think, and the Neg nails it - a lot is about smoothing the equity curve. You still should be able to separate out 'as if they are different strategies' - even if you dont view them as such, and be able to work out how well each individual strategy works....thats all. ''''''''''''''''''''' Plus a chart might better explain what you are saying....i thought it confusing when i read "My first exit (usually about a 1:1 R/R relationship +/- a little) set a few ticks before my first run-in with major resistance" and then "My second exit (usually about a 2:1 R/R relationship) set a few ticks before my second run-in with major resistance" I assume it is a different resistance, plus for me, going long into resistance seems a low probability trade - maybe I just have a different picture in my head. ''''''''''''''''''''''''''' I had a chuckle at this one - and this is what makes a market....when you said "With each successive wave comes a decrease in probability that a trend will continue" for me.... "With each successive wave comes an increase in probability that a trend will continue" strategy specific..... (Zdo)
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capital preservation tools. sleep soundly habit friends insurance (or if it works for you....the f..k you Dad tools ....FUD tools Make them your own - if your father would not get you a bike to fit, use tools that you choose to fit....maybe not recommended by most therapists. )
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Good Deeds; Bad Thoughts... Still Good Karma?
SIUYA replied to jpennybags's topic in General Discussion
nice story - you just need to go and sabotage her gas lines next time. -
yes most likely but usually if you just look for instruments that are trending I am sure you would improve it....and I do think that while many instruments do mean revert, enough of them trend away from their openings, or in much the same way as TRO does it it can limit when to enter....eg; in 20 pips from the high or low, and skew it this way. One of the things I have been using in the testing is range bars......that way you can quickly take into consideration the volatility of the underlying. There is a bit of subjectivity here as for how sensitive you wish to get. eg; take the ATR of the daily, and I divide by 12 (or what ever number you like) - this should give you at least the chance of an intraday trend. This also gives you an easy measure for a....how far a stop maybe from your entry, as everything becomes relative, and b...gives you an idea as to how far a trend may occur in the day. (at least the theory and ideas are working so far) If you follow the Electronic local its not that different - wait for the trend, get on board....I guess i pyramid a bit harder in the testing.
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I have been mucking around with various intra day position building, and based on my entries, and stops, I have noticed something interesting when doing some testing. Basically - the best results are from adding to winning positions and exiting them all at the end of the day (or other various levels)....the reason being it captures those days that trend, and when it does not, you dont actually loose that much. Again all system specific and not for everyone, but I also realise this is tough to mentally do as for a few reasons... 1....adding to positions seems hard. (it feels good to reduce and feel like you are locking profits in) 2...when you have a large position running and it starts to retrace normally people want to hit the panic button.(because of position 1) 3....not every day is a runner (but enough are in those instruments that do) Hence I am working on getting the computer to do it This system does rely on pullbacks in the trend and when you look back sometimes it runs and you dont get on.....oh well. I would rather make money than be right. If you are scalping more then if running it in a similar fashion it works the same way except it just involves lots of smaller trades, but all pretty much going with the trend, and as you say lastninja - you just have to get on.
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from what I understand, people were expecting a further rate cut after the last one and yet the RBA is wise to hold of for a bit...., however you maybe right if they go crazy, crazy, crazy and say its all gotta go, firesale out the door and cut rates again.... This sums it up for me Rates to stay put in July Personally I am neutral the AUDUSD.....bearish the GBPAUD and EURAUD
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I understand the mentality behind it but the reality is if you are entering at one spot and scaling out with say one hard take profit and one let it run, its the same as having two strategies with the same entry...and you should be able to effectively separate the two to see what really works. Its more an accounting trick. If you are doing a slightly different version where by say..... buy 2, sell 1 on TP, buy 2 sell 1 on TP , buy 2, sell 1 on TP -- net long 3 - all based on building on the original trade then maybe it is one strategy, and its more discretionary then maybe. If you are scaling out you are not reducing risk....you are merely limiting your upside, trading a different strategy or making yourself feel good (not necessarily a bad thing). When you entered the trade you should have defined your risk.....this is probably where the maximum risk should be, and the easiest way to reduce that risk as you move into profit is to trail your stop. If you find you are really good at picking targets, why not exit in full and then look to get back on board again......I mean how often do people go long....get it right, exit, and then re enter at a higher level, but then get cut that one....whereas the better trade was to get in once and let it ride. As Zdo- used to say its all system specific....
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you are really trading multiple systems then, one a short term with profit targets, another with letting it run.....its a matter of accounting. Have you ever split them up to see the differences of risk return?
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probably best to give some examples or what you have found, and others may relate their experiences. I think your free commission OR small spreads might give a clue. Brokers are not in the business of doing things for nothing, they have to make money, and they do it somewhere.
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I look forward to you sharing it with the community.
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This is the last thing I have to say on the subject....... SIUYA
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Roger,.....if you are selling this then and posting it here I think you would find this is seen as a promotion :doh: and constitutes part of the rubbish, and that gosu comments (while harsh ) are valid......
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I notice a post of mine that has been quoted by a few others has been deleted/moderated....if this is the state of TL moderation then I am out of here.:missy::missy: I think roger (from his last post ) took it in the light it was meant to be, a suggestion to get rid of all rubbish so that he can help others as he wants.... and Roger, I dont view defending and promoting together - I think they are seperate, and unfortunately you maybe gave the impression that you were promoting....and now you are defending......at least you could keep that in this thread, and help others in other threads.
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thanks.... it goes to show for high volume and turnover the massive difference it can make. As an example Interactive brokers (and they do offer lower rates for volume) quote a fixed rate for Germany (about the cheapest there) 2 EUR each way....4 EUR round turn. So (if I am reading this correctly) it means that at 4 EUR per contract round turn as opposed to you being 0.8 EUR round turn - you have a 80% discount. massive difference for some strategies.
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lastninja - (if you can/allowed to reveal) - what commissions are you charged to trade? That might put it in perspective....as clearly retail guys wont get the same amounts, but it can show how big a difference commissions make to certain strategies.
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unless Mit is trying to imply that an educator should back his students with capital and take a percentage of their profits while/as he teaches them their methods, as a measure to judge.......not necessarily a new idea but some would say harsh but fair.