SIUYA

you can always just trade the index..... however the contango and backwardation will likely be the biggest effect on the PL. more interesting is working out if the black swans can be predicted and if value can be found against the trend, or if there are "heads up" before they occur.

Never underestimate the human mind and how it can justify anything to itself. ....how they are smarter, how they think they are doing nothing wrong, how its other peoples faults. There are so many of these people prosecuted all the time, and its not just in finance. Think about the current libor and money laundering schemes the majors are caught in....is it that much different? Why is it that the wagons get circled around some people and not others - -- all too often even society justifies some of these things as normal. (if i recall correctly when the MF Global 'theft' took place people tried to defend what happened.) I dont think he was done for anything like a ponzi shceme -more misprepresentations, miss selling and fraudulent solicitation. At least in a ponzi shceme you have a chance of getting something back. Stick 1000 people in a room, some of them will look to bend/break the rules....... change the rules, the same people will probably do the same thing......ie; its not the rules that need changing.

I was thinking about this myself, you would imagine at least one trader might have got lucky......... if you think of the scenarios..... if you had some early losses early on then it could be difficult to recover or even if you got to being a break even trader you still would not recover. Good luck would be unlikely to help dig you out of the hole. If you were lucky and had some early gains (but not to the $2000 level) but the system was either rubbish or you really had no idea of trading then its likely you would have then proceeded to loose with subsequent trades. Its a bit like a casino - as its often reported - if you dont have a system with an edge then the more you trade the more likely you are to loose, and not learn....as you loose more its harder to learn and recover.....its not until its all thrown out and you do the learning before committing money then you might have a chance. Think about how many market wizards report that they made money early on and then blew up, until the worked out how to put things in their favour.....ie; luck eventually turns from good to bad, and hence the natural progression for traders is to loose.

I am sure it could be done.....he has always been susceptible to salacious text messages - his black swan! It is certainly something he had considerable consistency with.

I think that is a good example.....sports car drivers can as you say be in the zone - until it all goes horribly wrong, and something blindsides them. I also recall an interview with ex Australian cricket captain Ricky 'Punter" Ponting - he was talking about one time where he was batting well and he said he was in the zone and that the balls coming at him were like pumpkins (i think he said that) and that it was easy to hit them.....it did not stop him from missing some balls and eventally getting out. When it comes to trading my idea of the zone is that you are just seeing the flow of the market with ease, you are not fighting it, there are times whereby you can just 'feel' the turning points......not because you are looking to pick tops and bottoms....but it seems you are in tune with the markets. My only issue with this is that usually this still involves either a lot of prior homework - Is this is a pre-requisite to be in the zone? ...and that being in the zone is almost like sticking with the plan - even when that plan is not really working.....as often the plan should have contingencies. (if that makes sense)

I tried to get my accountant to allow me to retrench myself. At the time there were certain taxation advantages to their final payouts when someone was made redundant.....alas he did not allow me to do it.

based on this, all those who invest in Nigerian scams have a high motivation for success.:helloooo: The end result is that they were conned, and I think its a a long bow to assume they were highly motivated. They may also may just have been, desperate, or gulible or rich and bored, lazy and looking for a quick turn key solution, or plain stupid........ It is always an interesting read and as in everything you only need a few people to make the con work. As for the numbers of losers....well IMHO, it probably says more about those people who believe that the power of positive thinking alone will get them success

no event takes into consideration what your ideas or trades actually are....unless you have super powers, or believe that as a government official you can control the markets and those black swan events. I think the reality is that people are more likely than not to loose in black swan events - based on the idea that they occur because by their very nature it will hurt the most people. So unless you are guru and can accurately pick tops and bottoms then go for it, trade both ways..... there is reality and there is fantasy..... Personally I like to trade both ways......but I can also see the benefits in what TRO says, and too often its hindsight that suggest to us that it was easy to see, we would have acted in a certain way..... The lure of "if only" i had done that. Most traders have a natural inbuilt bias, as do many markets (test a strategy using an entry exit in a bull market - test the reverse for a bear market - results maybe vastly different) so why not play to your and the markets strengths and only go the way that makes the most money? As mentioned its all personal......it is just an idea, a simple one, and often they work the best.

thanks....that is always an option...however in this case even they would not do it. Small cap, spread too big, no liquidity, and it was a short term situation that once you highlight it to some of these groups they do it themselves! It often happens when the company issued options get near expiry and there is no real liquidity in them, people just dump them. Ideally if you did not have to wait for the exercise and back office delay you could risk it and naked short and not deliver......dangerous and many brokers dont allow it now. good idea, hard to execute.

Good point - another thing most people don't do properly - and honestly It hurts to prove to yourself you are more often an idiot than not - but once you accept it......others things can fall into place. eg; it is easier to stop losses, it is easier to be patient both in entry and exit, it is easier to get stopped out and then get back on again.....

we always say in Australia we learn two languages....English and Australian. if i did not watch what i said half the time you would think i had gone troppo. Australian slang dictionary

jobbing = scalping. Lots of smaller trades looking for shorter term speculative moves. as opposed to position trading whereby the timeframe might be slightly longer term (even if its only 30mins- 30 days). Personally when i would say its a jobbing day it means - directionless, and hence dont fall in love with a position - take a profit and look for the next small move as it is likely to a f..n choppy day that will frustrate you otherwise...... it was a term we used to use in Australia....Not sure where the name came from but i found this....loved the wrestling term - maybe thats why jobbing is a crap job IMHO. http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/jobber

exactly.....how with a straight face you can say.... this instrument is a great hedge against inflation, and then in the next breath say, it is cheap - because it has been such a poor hedge against inflation in reality. If you find chart to back your idea then its all good.....extend the chart or change the comparison.....different story sales pitch, sales pitch, sales pitch.........:doh:

My guess is many will switch to loosing money in some other market......probably for the same reasons. If you dont know the reasons then maybe that is what you should do next - work out why.

yes great chart to prove a point ......what happens when you put them on the same vertical axis. I was unfortunately previously associated with someone who used to claim.... Gold is a great inflation hedge.....(and in the same breath) If gold were to be inflation adjusted it would be worth $5000. amazing when you change the horizontal axis as well to prove a point, or go back 100 years to show a short term trend.

I just had a laugh about that, there was a guy on TV talking about it - his view.... Italy wont have any problems unless they keep coming back to the market and wanting to raise more money, and the other rating agencies keep downgrading them..... Q; WTF sort of expert advice is that -????..... A....the sort that gets you into all sort of trouble in the long run. - no one has learnt a thing yet with attitudes like that, and the focus seems to be on what is China going to do to in terms of stimulus! Maybe they should join the EUR? Update - EURUSD - climbing the wall of worry overnight......might have a spike up, but in my mind never a good sign.....needs a proper consolidation......wait and watch and sell rallies.....at this point....quick jobbing day today

I am of the bearish EURUSD type......however, just poked my head in, and for me (and what works for me....) using rough numbers. recent little consolidation at 1.2174 -90......sharp rally to 1.2210 abc retracement (trend resumption).back to 1.2185, then a rally back over the B point....at 1.2205 Possible long opp from an oversold (I hate that word)...... buy around 1.2200 - ---- stop 1.2180 ---- a reasonable possibility for some upside.....especially with a move back about 1.2215

room 101.....I hate that such filters usually only come with experience, of time you will never get back. .

are those the ones that spend 20 mins promoting the product, then 5 mins talking about the webinar subject then a further 20 mins promoting the product......or are those the ones that throw out some interesting ideas and education possibilities and then spend 30mins sucking you in with the promise to reveal more.....until finally you have to spend to do so, usually on some "proprietary" indicator, course or E book. Cant think of any lately that come to mind.....

never really thought about it.... given context is king, pretext is queen (if you are nice Tams, you can don the dress high heels and make up. though it was not any reference to you....it was more a stupid thing that reminds of a south park episode - the left hand killer and Cartmans gift)

1 and 2 are related There is discretion required as to when to apply the entry trigger (Q1) - as well as waiting for it to be within the zone. Which leads to Q2....Ideally once on board your risk is limited (10 pips), and your upside is potentially unlimited. So unless you happen to enter at completely the wrong time, then by letting your entires run, you may just get on board a black swan. If however by going both ways you will be exiting a long if having to go short....hence by going one way you may get on a black swan event by going both ways you are unlikely to as you will be exiting......of course you may just get lucky and short something, get the gap over night if you are not day trading.... (if that makes any sense)

abstract.....what do you see? WHAT DO YOU SEE! ----------------------------------------------------- | X 0 | | | | | | 0 XX | | | | 0 IIO | | | ------------------------------------------------------| (Abstract art uses a visual language of form, color and line to create a composition which may exist with a degree of independence from visual references in the world)

MFG - I think was 8th largest bankruptcy in the US - so larger firms are not safer. I would also be wary of Goldmans and other bigger firms as they do have a history of "screwing" their own customers - The unfortunate reality is just as you say, you need to be nimble, small, sweep money and have multiple accounts - and all this will do is diversify your risk. As a list of possible red flags, and I hope others will add to this constructively these are things to look out for...... Firm conducts proprietary trading Firm uses off balance sheet vehicles to hide its true liabilities Firm does not have segregated accounts Firm is controlled by 1 or a few individuals with no checks and balances Firm does not have the ability to sweep accounts into segregated accounts Firm makes it difficult to withdraw money. Firm hires new CEO who plans to turn company into a larger risk loving entity If company is listed and its share price is diving, others may think the firm is not such a great bet. The firms accounts it supplies to the clients are pretty poor - they should be able to provide detailed history, costs breakdowns etc.....if they cant provide it for you they probably dont have it internally the firm has been fined multiple times for treating customers unfairly etc; The firm conducts most of its business through separate parties, related or unrelated Of course this may mean they are all pretty much f...d

a friend sent this through to a few of us caught in MFG - I think it was from facebook..... ................... Jon Macmichael 12:39pm Jul 10 Woa, I can pick 'em. Having had 2 MF Global accounts (one here & one in U.S. for futures with its 'connectivity' to TradeNavigator), when the CME went about saving face coughing up 72% of the funds JPMorgan has been allowed to abscond with I transfered the bucks into a PFG acc. Again for better TradeNavigator connectivity. But most amazing is how the media is controlled with all its super news about things like changes in the GirlGuides policy, a few boat people etc. Like to know some more of my 'picks'?

not applicable in any meaningful form for me....mainly as I dont just day trade. Over twenty years of trading I have had periods of trading whereby i had 36 months in a row that were profitable. I have had periods whereby I had 10 months in a row, all slightly down to slightly up, net, net, call it break even to then have two killer months and make 40% for the year. (based on an unleveraged amount) I have also had periods whereby I was not trading and doing other things that took my focus - some of those months made money, others lost money. I dont aim for consistency (I think if you are a pure day trader then it is a valid aim), I prefer to work out how to maximise my earnings over the course of the year .....sometimes it works other times it does not. (this year has been up and down day trading, as my focus is else where and I have made notes that to do this properly for me at least - it needs 100% focus - my broker has done better than me though it is still positive, however my overall portfolio is up due to a few larger winning trades - not applicable to day trading) I am not a good example of consistency.in PL