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SIUYA

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by SIUYA

  1. I would think they are directly related...... if you cannot focus for long periods of time (the sustaining part), then an obvious solution is to work out how to best focus attention when it is most needed, and switch off the rest. If you cannot focus for even short periods of time, then you would either need a different strategy or career. Solutions to maximise focus might be things such as - closed dark room, music, caffeine, planned day, exercises...etc, but thinking outside the box (of the original question) by asking why the need for intense focus for long periods of time, and hence actually becomes a solution in of itself is related.....unless of course you have a compulsion for more threads
  2. in my universe the only thing i am dishonest about is the 5 mars bar wrappers on the desk ---- I swear i only had one. I should have stuck with the theme --- I sold at the top and shorted there, made 20 ticks, screwed the girl, made love to the dog and was given an award for bravery.....unfortunately my universe is a little more dull drab and full of little losses, nervous times and waiting around - much like a dentists surgery.
  3. sounds like a conversation between my partner and I......:haha: The one where you loose focus after a few minutes (Aside - my trade did not work out, I exited at a three tick loss - not a bad result in my book, whereas someone might have been happy to take 10-15 out of it in a variety of forms, or a partial profit etc....I am greedy, I want more than a Jag, and will be likely to go at it again...but thats only because of the voices in my head...)
  4. I was lucky - i started trading on a floor, and you had the added advantage of hearing when things became interesting.....and i can tell you, I slept on the floor, and then upstairs at the desk - one eye always open, learning to switch off and on. then i discovered tetris and other distractions (thank god for the pause button) now I think if sitting by yourself you need to set your levels, have a plan of attack and go with it.....there is nothing wrong with wanting to go long all day, and never getting the opportunity to as it falls all day and you dont loose money as you never get a good chance to enter. Too often we think we need to make $x per day, what is wrong with making $5X per week when the opportunity arises, it might not happen until Wed afternoon. The plan - the plan - the plan. If you have done any plan you know what to look for that will alert you to things in real time. It might be as simple as a MA cross over to say right now I want to buy support on any pullback, or given xyz, I might need to chase it because this is the 3rd time its tried for a breakup and there is unlikely to be a pullback.....then after that.....it will probably run up, pullback, -- do i add, move my stop, panic out, reset.....this is what each person has to work out themselves..... I might be bullish on the MA cross for the next ten days, my friend (imaginary) sitting next to me might be bearish for the next 10 mins, but we are now both alerted to something that has piqued our interest. (I know my big weakness is being impulsive, so just because I get an alert does not mean I should act on it. Some days my impulsiveness works, other days it hurts. this fits with my plan that if I enter impulsively, i had better be quick to exit at a small loss, or small profit.....this then gives me time to slow down and assess properly - an itchy trigger finger pays the broker but it keeps me alerted as well - a small price to pay. However if everything lines up and the entry is clean, smooth, planned, then I dont want any impulsive exits......stick to plan.....) EDIT - I attached a trade that happened as I was writing this - I had been a bit bearish all day in the EURUSD, but not running anything, just sell and buy.... BUT I only needed to be alerted when it rallied back through the MA..... then when i see it fall, in a simple three wave down and start to rally quickly, from a higher low...remembering that the EURUSD has a bullish bias - I can go long. Potential upside might be back above 1.3100, downside 8-10 ticks. Now I will let it ride for abit - I might exit IF it fails to accelerate up which I would expect it to.....however it is also nearly 4pm and it could just as easily be done for the day.
  5. I think the pre plan and post day review is important for most people...and too often neglected. Once it then becomes second nature then you can look at a chart and just 'know' how things might/might not react, and what you have done wrong......but this is what takes a lot of experience and habitual reinforcement from a good strategy and repetition. For most people I think in order to maintain concentration you need to understand when you dont need to maintain concentration. (if you are a mean reverter, why trade and watch when its trending, if you are trend follower why trade when its range bound. - set the levels) This is where the preparation of levels is important - when do you need to focus, when do you need to slack off. When it becomes tiring is when you are watching, waiting, and hoping. I also think as part of this, a review at the end of the day is important especially when starting.....this is when you need to be honest with yourself.....hard to do sometimes, and very much a smack in the back of the head, usually when you least want it, but most need it. This way you can concentrate for what seems like a long time, but are in fact only concentrating for small zones....the rest of the time can be spent reading, listening etc. (Golf analogy - golf is a game of 72 x 30 second intervals of concentration totaling 36mins - but it takes 4 hours to play. The work to be able to switch on is done in the preparation and practice) Plus there is nothing wrong with a "26min power nap" if you need to refocus.
  6. I hope people can see this site and there is no x- country restrictions.... TheVine - 100 Hilarious Protest Signs - Life & pop culture, untangled
  7. Plenty do - Ever heard of the Vatican trading room? ''''''''''''''''''''' re undercapitalised - which would you rather have - plenty of capital and a strategy that is not profitable, or a small capital base and a profitable strategy? The point i was making is that often retail traders burn through their capital before getting to a profitable strategy - regardless of how much they have. Why would a trading business be any different to the vast majority of any business? When it comes to trading, the cost of getting a profitable strategy is pretty cheap compared to other businesses, and yet most still will through good money after bad. To survive and live off it you certainly need to be properly capitalised and business minded enough to pay taxes etc; on top of the first....(my guess is many successful professional traders are not, or dont think enough about this aspect as well if they venture out on their own - if you are a professional and getting paid a good % of what you make, with the support - unless you really have a reason - why leave.), but it would not matter if you dont have a profitable strategy.....and as Blue mentions - enough emotional capital as well as financial capital. (10% was pulled out of thin air as it amazes me when I read someone saying I have $20,000 to trade and I am thinking about going to a seminar on the weekend that costs $5000 - WTF? I would think spending 10% (lets say $10,000 out of $100,000 would be reasonable - at least it wont kill the account.)
  8. you will see all reasons sprouted out - like "more buyers/sellers than sellers/buyers", but this is not what you are asking.... as zdo says, the actual currency exchanges are different to your agreement to swap the differences in the relative prices between the day you start the agreement and the day you end the agreement. Unlike stocks where you have to deliver a piece of paper (script) in FX you dont necessarily need to. Especially these days its all electronic - and basically all a promise. Imagine going to your bookie and placing bets using credit, or going to the casio and changing your money for chips - they are worthless without the casino willing to back them. In this case you are relying on your broker to honour your account - see MFGlobal and PFG and Madoff for when it goes wrong. (In the days when they used to back currencies with gold - and this has constantly been abused over the centuries - a currency was backed by the government as a promise to pay - supposedly because they had a physical asset (gold) that could be used. These days its all just a promise)) Even those large firms, multinational companies dont necessarily transfer trailer loads of cash - its all electronic - and scary if you think too hard about it.
  9. To keep things in perspective about any business and this can be particularly applicable to trading. ''''''''''''''' There is the theory of good and bad capital. Professor Amar Bhide "Origin and Evolution of New Business" Paraphrasing here...... 93% (a familiar number) of all companies that ultimately become successful have to abandon their original strategy. because the original plan proved not to be viable. In short - successful businesses succeed not because they have the right strategy at the start but because they have money left over after the original strategy fails and they can survive to try another approach. Most who fail, fail because they spend all their money on the original strategy which is usually wrong. The theory of good and bad capital demands that new companies figure out a viable strategy as fast as possible, and with as little investment as possible - in order to survive for the long term. there is a sacrifice between profits and growth here for businesses. Initial investors should be patient for growth and impatient for profits Once a viable strategy has been found, then they should look to growth '''''''''''''''' With trading there is no excuse if you have a strategy that you have not tested and found to be successful you are almost doomed to fail, and this can be done only with the cost of time, and initially small amounts of capital. the good capital is spent in time, and development, the bad capital is spent in chasing unprofitable strategies. Another reason IMHO for why if you are starting out and decide to spend more than (a number pulled from thin air) 10% of your initial trading capital upfront on a system/mentor/educator or such you are likely to increase your chances of failure. (Not saying anything here about vendors good or bad, but as a value judgement on what they may be worth as part of the capital a trader has to use) '''''''''''''''' Plus adding to what wrb says - yes the most financially successful doctors either probably work for a larger institution or made most of their money out of their business skills in setting up clinics etc rather than being a doctor.....could be same for almost any profession or business.
  10. yes - I agree there are some more things to look at, but how are you going to determine the value of what this information is worth if you cannot test it against the rest of the system specifics. (As zdo rightly says - most things are system specific) I would take a guess and say most markets have 50/50 in terms of up and down bars, regardless of bull, or bear market - and so that information by itself is useless....and even if you take a bull market, and the ratio might be 55:45, you still need to be able to get on, stay on and also distinguish that it is a bull market. Re the ColB and Bob comments, then if you dont have enough momentum in a particular instrument without picking levels, and instead waiting for confirmation then common sense will tell which system to pursue.
  11. tradewinds - you are complicating it. There are participants in the market that arbitrage between the fair value of the futures v the basket of the underlying instruments. They will not care if someone is buying 1000 contracts of the futures - they will care if the price moves above or below their fair value, and more than likely if there is an opportunity they will be selling the futures if they are 'overpriced to the basket' There are no magical indicators in use. There are no options involved (options hedges may be involved in the initial buying but are not involved in the stock arb) Re: market capitalisation....google it - it is a basic of stock markets, and the various stock indexes around the world are made up in various manners....you should not need to calculate it all the time, and if you want to try and use the calculation of the index for trading you will be competing against the arbitrage groups and HFT.....probably not worth your while as fees and speed would kill you
  12. an even simper test is to look at the number of red and green bars in a trend - that will tell you that magnitude is important. (even taking a range bar and counting them in a move is interesting over say the last 100 bars, mind you it does not help get you on board the actual move) Regardless of market -dont confuse a red or a green bar with support and resistance. To get down to support you need red bars - but these are then indifferent to where they stop.....it would be nice if it were that easy. Point is - you need to look at magnitude as well as price levels. Otherwise arent you just curve fitting again until you get the right sequence of 5, 10, 11.5 minute bars? Re momentum - again, while some instruments might have more or less follow through, then to me it seems that counting bars, may or may not add anything without this info. What you need to determine is if there is enough momentum without hitting your stop - and how long it takes. so do you use a closer stop in a low momentum market, but still go with momentum, or do you start mean reverting (in which case why not just look for support and resistance early rather than wait for confirmation), plus given where you can set stops, and what you might expect to make from them, then people can just adjust their quantities cant they? (all these are just questions that need to be asked to put any common sense in to the trading - and as others have hinted before, sometimes people like to trade certain instruments for the ego, rather than the money) Testers might be better off looking at things not in bars, but in terms of volatility and momentum.
  13. Tradewinds - in answer to your question you need to understand stock index arbitrage. It is relatively simple, and it basically results in the ES and SP500 (the derivative and the underlying ) in being highly correlated. If does not matter where the buying or selling originated from - there are other players trying to exploit discrepancies in fair values between the two. Remember - one is a derivative (its price is derived from) the other. Some instos are not allowed to buy futures, others use them purely as a hedge, some insto are long only, some are futures only, some people are hedging with the 'bext value' instrument available at the time, others are spreading various equities markets..... You need the arbitragers and speculators as well in a market. (plus when you talk about volumes going negative I assume you are saying volumes decline, relative to previous volumes or the other instrument volume?)
  14. dont think in terms of candles - think in terms of price levels Otherwse the thinking is flawed from the start....ie; common sense has been thrown out the window. Lets say support is 100, and the price grinds down there using three red bars....but you dont buy. But it goes through support and down to 95, but then rallies to 100 on a green bar.....thats the problem. The other point Col B makes about retail traders is valid - if you are going to buy after waiting for confirmation then you have to hold for longer periods - you are buying momentum - and so you should expect momentum - why sell into it, and should only be buying those confirmed moves because you think they are going to be bigger moves - there becomes a miss match otherwise, and common sense has once again been thrown away. (Waiting for the close might make more sense when using an automated service - a discussion joshdance has had previously http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/12081-close-bar-meaningless.html
  15. SIUYA

    Truisms - NOT!

    probably because they really dont have a plan? or a strategy or a system that they can apply.....they would prefer to buy one, have it handed it to them, and think that all they need is discipline. ............. time for vendor bash for some reason it stuck me as something to do --- another truism - NOT ! maybe - vendors should be ridiculed. For some reason I have been recently watching some trader educational videos on u tube (in between family guy, TED, TL and other assorted porn) - it only takes 5-10 mins on each and most can be switched off pretty quickly ---- it amazes me how many of them there are out there. How many of them say the same stuff in the same way, or the same stuff but by trying to be different (a unique selling point no doubt). Any ways a few 'truisms' popped up i thought i you might like - these seemed to be repeated..... "I am an expert trader - but I did not take that trade because - I had computer problems - it was slow, my internet was down, I was having trouble with my system, I am showing you how to plan ahead but I couldn't be bothered "----- nah -it was probably never obvious at the time or impossible to get on it happened so quickly, and plus your an expert trader ---- get a new computer, a good platform and internet connection "You could see this was going to be a red (down) bar" --- really - i thought that it either was or was not only after the fact? " You can see that the pros were buying here, but the retail guys were selling here" - WTF - you cant tell sh.t. So the "pros" (whoever they might be) are the only ones that have enough firepower to move the market one way, but the retail guys are the only ones who have the power to reverse it. "Magnets for price - it will be drawn to this level" - so why not put on a trade until it gets there? Why - because its not a trade, its just a hunch, and it might happen, but it might not in which case we forget i said anything. ................. As a side note - we all say and do dumb sh.t but I like that these guys repeat the same dumb sh.t.....and yet its because we want them to ---- I want to see a vendor say - "right most of you will loose, we will take half your money, the market will take the rest and unless you work it out for yourself you are cannon fodder, no matter what I tell you - thank you for coming next class" ....a good week I am feeling smug - Not. - enjoy zdo.
  16. brain waves and heart monitor chart http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=31283&stc=1&d=1347551285
  17. SIUYA

    Charts.

    Bluehorseshoe -- yes - my guess is that is much the same as a zig zag line study that sierra chart has. Thanks. (only its written in C++) if you have the code for the easy language it would be great i might be able to read it and modify it in - or find someone who can do it - might compare and contrast. Problem with all these is that I still need to put the bias on..... eg; this is compressing, that first LH was broken but that then becomes an alert as opposed to a trigger - lets see what happens in this pullback - is it fast, slow, does it immediately reject the low - was there an abc type swing in between, is it clean and smooth or is it climbing a wall of worry. (if its one, then where is it happening in the context of what has occured the last 5 days), is this the third attempt to have a go at this level, have each of the retracements prior to this been shorter than before. Given this, are they good odds to purchase on a pullback, and set the stop at the last swing low, or a fixed amount.....how do i go at it again if the stop is hit and immediately reverses - the computer thinks its a new low, I think its a screamer to happen as i first thought.... I may be complicating it a little but these are the things l look at and programming this - beyond my grade. I have tried various combos - eg; hh,hl,lh,ll - then buy break of last lh - you miss some of the great entries for a trend, and often get on at the end. or ll,lh,hl, hh - sell break of hl - sometimes the better bet is to see that there has been prior overlap and that looking for a failure just after the hh is a great entry. Cant get much real value out of it. Or there is enough chop you still get chopped up, Or there is not a great way to ensure that you get set at support - how hard do you chase - and if you miss it....was that the trade you needed to get. (if you are always taking the breaks of HH, or LL, then its a breakout system) Same old drill.
  18. concepts in finance are some things some people never get - shorting is one of them, leverage and risk is another. So never be afraid to ask the dumb questions.....while there are a lot of smart people who work at the big banks, there are also a lot of complete tools who thought (and still think) there is no risk on some of the things they produce (maybe not for them ) Adding to Zdos post...... dont think of it in terms of stocks. In stocks when shorting something you dont own you have to borrow (loan) the script to deliver the script to the buyer. This is because there is a finite amount of script for that stock and each stock certificate needs to be accounted for. in many other instruments on margin - while Zdo calls them contracts (they can come in various forms and this might depend on what your broker is allowing you to do and who with and how you are doing it - too detailed) you could also think of them as an agreement (basically a contract) that your PL will go up and down based on the relative prices of the two instruments in the agreement. When you terminate the agreement the moves in the PL stop. There is theoretically no limit to how many agreements you can have - so long as you can provide enough margin to cover potential losses......nothing apart from the PL might actually change based on the relative price move. (hope that did not confuse more) (the various machinations behind the scene do differ depending on if you are trading a spreadbet, swap, futures contract etc; - but it is not like going to your local money changer and saying I wish to physically convert this currency USD into GBP and then convet GBP into AUD, and then to close it out, you have to reverse it)
  19. teaching and learning are not the forte of most here (however some might be better at teaching than others ) so I think these would all be wild suggestions that might or might not work. Personally..... I found whenever reading a book I would try and summarise each chapter in my own words in a short paragraph. If I could not do that then I found I had either missed the point or did not understand how it fitted into the overall picture. At the end of the book I would see how these concepts/processes/ideas fitted together. (you end up with a 2-3 page summary, that most likely reflects a few simple concepts reflecting the overall jist of the books heading) Now this told me two things - either a...the book was crap, or b....I missed some important points/concepts..... This helped me ensure I had good building blocks, and meant I was unlikely to waste my time. (often reviewing the notes was enough to trigger new ideas, or a re read altered perceptions based on further knowledge - which is then easy to fit into context) When it comes to trading - there is the unfortunate issue of fitting a trading style to your personality - otherwise you are making it harder on yourself. If you cannot concentrate and are easily distracted, you might find you are better suited to a longer term style, or a different profession. As a trick/hint/suggestion - allocate time into blocks and build from there. eg; 7am-8am prepare, 8am-10am trade. expand from there - if you cannot concentrate for 2 hours after a 1 hour prep time - stick to engineering. Re forums - allocate a time to read through some, make some notes, ask questions. then switch off until the nest day. Alternatively put your engineering brain to use and develop automated systems.
  20. SIUYA

    Truisms - NOT!

    with - no plan, no tested plan that works, and no review and modification of those plans - discipline means nothing. In an attempt to answer your questions...... What is ‘disciplined trading’? applying a systemised recorded planned and tested approach repeatedly. (Deviation from the mission statement is not to be tolerated and will result in extermination) ??? What does it imply? it implies that this is a really crappy job that is largely industrialised, and yet not necessarily robotic and that doing nothing most of the time can actually be the best way to achieve something. ??? Can someone please summarize for us what all those posts are getting at ? information compulsion For me disciplined can also imply - being a tight arse, focused, money hungry, obsessively driven, methodical raving lunatic. (for some strange reason this morning I was on you tude - and big brother kept showing me trading videos - all saying the same rubbish - it was somewhat depressin - while its all been said and done before and continually - its probably not the definitions that matter its the doing the steps that are important. and just to throw in the obligatory analogy - Bit like saying to be a good race car driver you need to drive really fast (but before that you have to learn to drive, go up through the ranks, learn to survive, learn far more skills and then you can successfully drive fast) (Side note - had a good day today - jobbed for a few small losses until 10:14 am - one good move - all out by 11:51 - watched an waited for anything extra - nothing else happened - but i was extemely disciplined, made money and feel very unsatisfied - cant wait for tomorrrow so i can go crazy and start punting wildly )
  21. SIUYA

    Charts.

    thanks Blue - I have seen similar things before often called auto trend lines or similar.....I have never found them any use as I am more interested in horizontal lines. (price levels that show true support, resistance as opposed to my self imposed trend lines (no judgement on these) (please feel free to post the EL code - I could read it and have a look) The closest I use is the old Donchian channels (HHV and LLV) mainly as they give me clear levels - problems with these is they dont necessarily pick up the swing points I might deem as significant, and like MAs they converge on the areas of consolidation - where everything gets chopped up....usually I combine these with a swing count - that i can see. Best I can get is manual support and resistance - which only becomes and issue when trying to automate things really - you still need to watch what happens when it gets there, and act accordingly. (Plus did you see what happened in the EUR this morning - eye curumba for slippage)
  22. short enough to be a picture..... (if you are not old enough you might not get it) [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFCCFS_lhA8]Blonde goes back to work after 30 years - YouTube[/ame]
  23. briefly Interest rates... if you are long a currency that you are receiving the interest rate in that currency, if you are short a currency you pay the interest rate. example; AUD 3.5%, GBP 0.5% +AUD, -GBP you borrow at 0.5%, and invest at 3.5% Dont forget these are yearly percentage rates, calculated daily by your broker and often they might apply a small clip as well. For more information check out currency carry trades Direct Indirect Quotes..... GBPAUD is the inverse of AUDGBP - you are simply swapping one currency for another, and the normal quote (in this case is GBPAUD) because it depends on which currency you wish to go long or short. If you go long GBPAUD you are purchasing the first currency and swapping the second currency for it. (you are not shorting it like a stock) It is a relative swap trade (if you wish to think about it in terms of stocks its is a swap between cash and the stock eg; IBMCASH - to go long IBM you use cash to pay for it, to go short IBM you sell IBM and receive cash. It would be exactly the same if you inverted it, and is merely used for convention) hope that helps.
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