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SIUYA
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Everything posted by SIUYA
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Steve - (just for clarity as part of the comedy you like) - nothing strange about the logic of the system. it seems quite straight forward really. post 229...i commented what i thought was strange. "However, the logic that you wont reveal your distribution calculations, and that it wont be up for sale if it proves profitable should someone wish to buy it means no one will every be able to benefit from all your hard work posting here. " IMHO There is something strange about the logic in the rationale behind posting in this thread. It is a system in development, and is too premature to be tested, you are posting levels you will never sell to anyone, the calculations of,- if they are profitable, it seems to still require a fair bit of discretion. I wouldn't want to to draw any conclusions about your motivations, but that is what is strange Steve - not the logic of your ideas which i think are sound. When its profitable - what about the poor guys left hanging on your every word, wanting your continued distribution levels to be posted every day......, I hope they learn to create their own distributions and understand the good trading tips and hints you offer that form part of the system.
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not sure if its an amazing occupation but its pretty amazing.... blindfolded rubiks cube solving...
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I can ignore (as can most others I am sure) a lot of that from the first posts in the hope that something worthwhile develops....when it does it may stimulate more probing questions. (I do often find it hard to ignore your derision of others which is amusing - thanks) Personally - I have zero interest in using distributions to provide supply and demand levels for my own trading, I do have interest in others ideas, and the questions by Eqsys were in my eyes a way to clarify a system that may have some merit - to see if it then fails like so many others when put to the test - or is of great help to others, or any of those folk who have been watching quietly along. If you are suggesting that those who ask questions at a later date have missed the boat then Sorry folks you may as well stop reading now. Plus I hope you have "stumbled onto something important" - i thought it had more history behind it ----from your first post, and first line "Okay so I have been working on a "simplified" version of the system that I normally use." ---.I guess its just a simplified version for the retail trader that will never be made available if profitable......which in my mind is a little cruel Good luck with it Steve, I hope it develops further.
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Sorry you feel that way Steve - given this is a public forum and I would have thought about discussion of ideas, questions and the free flow of thoughts its a shame..... plus you do seem to knock a few others around a bit yourself when playing with the kiddies....these would be valid questions. If there are some inconsistencies that people might like to confirm then this would only be natural to ask. If you choose not to debate them - no problems......we can still ask. I for one, think that it can certainly work and can be valid - and have never suggested otherwise, and think there is certainly some great ideas here..... I do however find that the "underdevelopment" and the questions about providing data are "premature" clearly means that you dont have proof that it works over the long term or consistently, despite the claims that it works. Instead it might just provide a nice framework for trades. However, the logic that you wont reveal your distribution calculations, and that it wont be up for sale if it proves profitable should someone wish to buy it means no one will every be able to benefit from all your hard work posting here. you are such a tease Steve.......
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So in other words Steve --- as it is still under development - you have no idea if it works consistently over the long term (and it might not be able to be properly backtested and automated in order to do so - except maybe by hand - as it is only apparently being forward tested now) If it turns out to be profitable - you wont sell it, and so anyone following this thread will be left having to develop their own system of which little of the distribution calculations are revealed, and there seems a fair bit of discretion in terms of waiting for confirmation above or below a support or resistance line. If it turns out to be not so profitable - you might sell it? (joke ) I hope it turns out to be profitable for you Steve, but the logic seems a little strange - maybe that is what eqsys was alluding to - and that those following along who dont have stats training and expertise might be alert to?
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Hall of Fame - this site is not old enough. - we need at least 30 years of influence for this stuff. Mind you flattery will get you everywhere and I consider myself more a trouble maker - thanks. There are probably plenty of folks who post 5 times, say 5 great things who could be here, and so personally as groucho says I sent the club a wire stating, PLEASE ACCEPT MY RESIGNATION. I DON'T WANT TO BELONG TO ANY CLUB THAT WILL ACCEPT ME AS A MEMBER. Groucho Marx But for the hell of it ---- I think if there are people who influence your thinking, change the way you see things and generally help progress a subject matter in any direction..... a few folks who i found interesting and helpful when i joined here....good for nominations. (current friends and family need not apply) Thalestrader Blowfish Brownsfan (You know this list will pretty much start to build up to everyone and anyone who contributes to a thread in a helpful way - i guess thats why thay call it a public discussion forum, and this a nomination) What about a hall of infamy ? ---- Told you I was a trouble maker.
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You can post them how ever you like. You might like to either start your own thread, or help contibute to those threads whereby you trade similarly. Unless you wish to busy yourself with pre trade ideas or trying to post while trading, then its all going to be hindsight. IMHO it does not matter in such forums as its the ideas and style that is of value and what any other person may learn from that. Often hindsight trades are valuable. (people have to learn themselves IMHO - having someone feed them live trades does not necessarily help - there is more to it than that) if you post a bunch of hindsight trades without much of a reason, or as a salesman then you may find the rule of the mob becomes heavy handed - but thats up to you. you will find your own way to contribute.
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Answer: both. If you are comfortable and proficient with excel vba (not just the spreadsheets) you could probably transition into learning and understanding C,c++. Otherwise as Tams said it might not be worth it and other easier options are available. A lot may depend on how you wish to trade and what systems you wish to use. Sierra chart can be easily used with spreadsheets - and for more complex things C Multicharts and tradestation using Easylanguage If you dont like charts, and are happy to trade less actively then excel may be all you need if you really wish to push the limits here, python, R and matlab might be options --- but it sounds like these are beyond where you need to be and are at now. If you like charts and visual representations - I suggest you download the free trials for Sierra Charts, Multicharts, Tradestation, Ninja (I think it uses C), Amibroker --- or any other widely recommended platforms and see which ones you like. It will take some time - but it is better than switching and chopping and changing. You will also need to define what it is you are wanting to look at, look for or why you are doing this.......
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I had never seen this - very Charlies angels commentary - loved it. Even though it maybe old school - not much has changed.....computer mouse clicks rather than phone calls maybe.
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looking forward to the input from someone who has worked on the interbank market, and I love the quote you make that you are in the same boat as everyone else.......not what the conspiracy theorists like to hear, but I am sure you have some good stories to tell.
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Is It Illegal to Have Investors Lend You Money? (non-hedgefund)
SIUYA replied to Baker's topic in Beginners Forum
depending on which jurisdiction you are in...... Basically ---- If someone wants to lend you money to trade then that is enitrely up to them If there is no contract involved setting out terms etc, then there might be issues in regards taxes. If there is no contract - they are an idiot....unless they have other methods of extracting the money. If there is - be careful about what the contract terms are. If you are promoting, or enticing anyone then you may fall under advisory rules in certain places. There are exceptions for friends and family usually up to a certain amount, and a certain number of investors, and it depends on if you are treating it as a business and promoting yourself. I would not take money from people you dont know well, and for those people you know well be prepared to loose them as friends if you loose money. No matter the consequences the relationship changes. You should be able to check what exceptions there are for where you live and whose money it is pretty easily - listening to us can only guide you as to maybe what to look for and what questions to consider. -
These days there are a lot of automated systems in place that a triggered to enter and exit on various price levels. It could be as simple as this. It could be a combination of factors....eg - the market went up because another market moved and a trader had to hedge in this market. It could be one person exiting a position and getting squeezed out by his broker - it might be a hedge fund being wound up. It might be simply a short term lact of opposing orders creating a vacumm that unsophisticed algorithims fall into It might be a fat finger order, it might be a Kight trading type sceanrio It might be as a result of a news item - that causes a little bit of relatively greater volatility. In the scheme of things it may actually mean nothing It might be someone just wanting to get set in an order It might be 500 people following a newsletter It might be someone pushing the market trying to set off stops It might be an option or futures hedge It might be anything. You assume profit taking in the retracement - not everyone is short term - sometimes its a simple order over the day re loading, maybe it new sellers shorting, maybe it is some short term people taking losses. Reality is - unless you are the one who initialted the order and know you are doing the bulk of the order - the rest is speculative where people are just guessing. As for how much money it takes - often it has nothing to do with size - it has to do with lack of opposing orders - therefore the size is less than you think. It is all part of a market and proving that its it not normally distributed.
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Posting one good example of viewing a bunch of indicators without really looking at their usefulness when there is a lot of discretion involved becomes less about the indicators.....and more about other things.....eg; a sales pitch, or an overall market philosophy, or cycles, or experience etc. They seem to place trades when things are extremely over valued, and moderately overvalued, and have a bunch of other contextual alerts - so with experience you can do that without indicators. If the indicators are so good you should ideally be able to auotmate them maybe?? Indicators are just that - they help indicate certain things, but they also IMHO detract from being able to 'read' the market so to speak. Each to their own. No judgement on these guys - but there is a big f...n red flag - if you look closely at the two different videos you sent through.....it appears that they enter the same trade at different bars with the same result a profit of 72.4pips. First video at 45 secs...... Second video at about 18seconds..... You might want to investigate further, but for me thats enough.... lucky 8 ball .... Seriously I use a MA to remind me of the overall trend bias, but it does not get used in any crossing etc; I then look at price levels..(visually I use donchian channels to make it easier to view the swings without noise - personally I dont really view these as indicators that are derived using some calculation, they are merely a historical record of price levels - if you wish to view them as an indicator then thats fine).....you dont really need an indicator for that, and if you read what i said carefully I did not judge the market change. I had a short term trade long that was prudent to sell at resistance (or near enough to) for that particular trade. Period. I was not predicting a top, a change in the market nor picking the top, or anything else....merely exiting what was always going to be a short term trade, that happened to turn out to be a good price to exit. (did i get lucky, or was that a good trade that made money?) I wish I had shorted it, but I also wish for many other things as well....but only hindsight has told me that. ''''''''''''''''''' if you want to learn to trade - learn to trade without indicators - then maybe then if you find one that helps quantify something for you then use it. Use their videos to follow a chart without indicators - see if you can pick up what happens without needing an indicator. Hindsight trading can be helpful - maybe just not as profitable. in real time.
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Information is either not available as it top secret - people are making money on it and then would not sell it. Those who offer top secret information for sale should be avoided. Also the other reason is that there are lots of ways of trading, executing, operating, many different strategies - every one has an opinion, hence there are many variations or answers to any questions. Basically you have to work a lot of stuff out for yourself. It is more often quoted 95% of retail traders loose money.......it could also be argued 100% of anyone doing business is a speculator....another circular argument. Plenty of banks do loose money trading, they usually make up for it in fees and spreads as to Q1.....who knows? Who would admit it? who uses it 100%,v 50%? plus how do they use it is important...... lets say - I would believe it is used far less than people think, but as an aid for more than people would like to imagine. (plus there is the difference between numbers of people using it, v amount of money being influenced by it) short term market movements in FX - of course - you can tick a market which moves it. Why do they do it - for money of course, if they can see a way of profiting from it. Are they succeeding - who really knows for certain - if you are and its deemed as manipulation are you going to tell people about it? There is a lot of reasons for people doing things in the markets and you will get many many many different answers each from a different perspective. Most people dont know what others are doing. forgot about it when people tell you about big guys, smart money dumb money, professionals - its all jargon and theory. Re false breakouts - first you need to define it, there are many or there are few. but in essence it is simple - some people traded at a level above a congestion, there was no momentum, the price re enetered the congestion. the internet will have plenty of free info, and plenty to think about, if you want to know who is doing what you should look at the statistics of the people and processes in FX, and not listen to retail idiots like ourselves sprout off about 1-2 lots .....enjoy the long and winding road of trying to understand markets.
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I dont know about patents, but clearly how something is represented can make a big difference..... have you followed the samsung v apple court cases lately? Plus there was the TT static DOM that had a lot of patent issues in recent years.
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I traded it and was long previously (it was a short term trade) and exited a trade near the high at 1.3164 (call it lucky or experience) I did not use any indicator except that it was a recent high, that had seen a sell off and then a very quick (too quick not to take a profit) move back up to the level. I did not short it, nor attempt to short it as I try not to get in the habit of picking tops and bottoms to initiate new trades when the bias in strongly to the upside, as I dont believe in over bought or oversold, from any indicator. Trend reversals can be anticipated and prepared for - and this is very different to picking tops and bottoms (maybe best avoided when learning IMHO), a far easier way is to trade with the trend.....if you can define how a trend ends, then you can define a trend and they should have made a lot of money in the recent move up from 1.2380, or 1.27..... (more importantly, if you are looking at an indicator for this type of thing, find out how many other signals it gave prior to this in the recent run, without adding all the extra discretion required and then ask yourself - do you need the indicator at all) (The sceptic in me says you need to investigate more as showing a trade that picks a turning point smells of of sales (not that there is anything wrong with that) without understanding more about the how and why this works, and when it does not work) and the best part----- if its a really good trend trade - trade the trend - dont buy and sell, and buy and sell....this is a different type of strategy, and the number of overboughts, oversolds prior to this should also be shown.
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Well l I guess then you have many more factors at play.... 1...do you need to focus and concentrate all the time? - this is where the discussion veered to.....as discussions tend to do. 2...if you need to sustain focus over time - and if you cant then what are some techniques to help improve this. 2a....if you dont then how can you best swtich on an off the focus ---- this in itself can help maintain sufficient focus over time when needed. 3...how much does desire and motivation play in this respect, and if its not there in the first place, or it declines over time - then maybe this is the real issue, as opposed to maintaining focus......a factor many should consider if they wish to take a more holistic approach to any questions raised. 4...maybe its a simple 99% hard work 1% inspiration conundrum and some people are just prepared to put in the work. ................... It terms of suggestions of how to sustain focus...some simple suggestions that I am sure you can google anywhere.... stay healthy, exercise, eat well do mental mind concentration exercises and practice engage the subject and practice, practice practice. train yourself to spend longer times building up the focus and concentration skills. --- whoops same problem people might have in terms of real motivation and desire. what about taking small breaks, naps breaking up the time having something to periodically distract you....might work meditation ------ all defeat the purpose of sustained focus maybe.? A lot of thinks boil down to the same thing - motivation and work ethic IMHO. Alternatively if you have this - then maybe you still dont need to concentrate for sustained periods of time, and you can work smarter rather than harder......sustained focus on one thing might be what holds (the trader or the football player back - partially why I gave the golfing analogy) they all boil down to willingness to work/change/improve etc.....if you assume that is already there, then maybe the focus should be on - will extra sustained focus improve my performance, or will i just spend a lot of time and effort for little improvement. '''''''''''''''''' here was a handy hint i quickly googled "Are there places and situations in your life where you may be bored, disinterested and alike? If you wish to become more focused, I recommend you try this exercise. Write down when your focus is off. Keep a record of the times you were able to sustain focus and times when you couldn't. You'll start to see a pattern. The pattern/s is situational. By isolating and becoming aware of the times you loose focus, you'll be better able to develop strategies for focusing. " if you have not done this before asking a question - maybe that is the issue? Trading is definitely a job of thought and not labour - you might get RSI from pushing the button, but it still takes a lot of what many would consider unproductive time - but thats part of it.....it sure beats 8 hours of focus and concentration in a truck, a coal mine or with other heavy machinery - where usually safety measures are in place for those slips in concentration.......maybe there is an answer ---- droopy eyelids, a stray mouse click to an unathorised website - --- focus alert, cattle prod and electric shock to chair......pavlovs dog solution.
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random thoughts..... price is just the reflection of where some participants have found liquidity. Its just that some participants are searching for liquidity at certain areas of value (deep value investors - usually purchase things when the price is already trading well below their fair value), while others dont have a preference (speculators who look at the value of their bets as opposed to what price it is), whereas others have no choice and have to either wait for price to come to them, or they will chase and influence/push prices in their desire for liquidity.... again each participant will have their own idea of liquidity and price. As time, value, market participants, and news flow changes then so shall liquidity at that point in time.....just because someone is the worlds biggest buyer one day at $1, does not mean they will be there tomorrow or the next day at $1. It could be argued liquidity chases/searches for a price, otherwise you may as well have a one off auction process once a day (I hope not) rather than a continual stream of prices reflecting changing levels of liquidity over points in time.... Or more than anything, throw it on its head.... price actively runs away from liquidity - thats how levels of support and demand and resistanced and supply form - when the buyers and sellers have areas that provide a lot of liquidity price will naturally move away from them......liquidity repels price. EDIT: more like --- high liquidity repels price towards the next most highly liquid area
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Price Alerts - Awesomely Useful or Just Rubbish?
SIUYA replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Tools of the Trade
SC has a good system of alerts, and there are multiple ways of configuring them. I wish they would all be configureable via a spreadsheet, and that you could easily click on the chart for a one stop spot to place the alert into the spreadsheet. Rather than - look at chart, type in alert, etc, etc. I am sure other system might have it, but then it does not have the parts of SC I like. Some smart cookie might have worked out how to do it on SC - it is very flexible....but I have ignored many alerts systems because of my stated reasons in the meantime. '''''''''''''''' the "new high oil" would be extremely irritating if you were sitting next to them and short oil -
Price Alerts - Awesomely Useful or Just Rubbish?
SIUYA replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Tools of the Trade
Basically - alerts to then sit and watch and wait kind of defeat the purpose - better to have something that triggers a response to actually do something...oh - thats called auto trading. (I have never had an affinity with alerts from a system) If trading multiple instruments alerts are great, but they should be simple - a flashing colour, a dialog box, a change of colour. (I used to hook up excel with conditional colour changes and watch alerts fire off and on....one issue became one of correlation - everything fired at once - which fish do you target....) Having either a continual beeping is annoying, have a single beep might be missed, so sound alerts i found painful. There is also the issue of how many alerts do you want - too many and they get ignored, too few and if you wonder if they are necessary. You might be better having a voice alert - "hi Jon....its Marcia here, just to let you know the chickens cooking and by the way the 200day MA for the AUDUSD has crossed, you might want to open the wine and exit the short" or something like a continual mantra such as "stay short stay short, stay short" changing to "get long, get long get long" I dont use alerts as such mainly as they are more trouble than they are worth to maintain on many systems. Rather if trading multiple instruments the preparation is the alert, and if trading a few instruments, watching is the better option. Why is it easy to trade with a click but so hard to modify, set and delete alerts.???? Plus - while I know a lot of people constantly checking their bb, ihones etc for their prices - I dont know many who trade off those alerts. It is usually to tell them either "s...t my stop has been hit," "my tp has been hit" or i really should be at my desk rather than being distracted having a beer here with you. But it helps them feel in touch i guess. The best alert is your PL.... -
From Steve46.....(I thought we could oblige as you kindly ask, and while this may seem like an attack, its not (there is a little dig lower down, but I think its mandatory), it just raises some questions - as you feel the rest of us mere mortals dont get it you might be able to help clarify......it also might open up a whole other can of worms....but what fun) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/14045-steves-basic-system-retail-traders-25.html Post #197 "I notice that there are discussions about value on other threads (ROFL)...value is subject to interpretation by participants "based largely on time frame"....with the longer time frame participants viewing higher prices as "fairly valued"....why? because it is the longer time frame participants who view price in terms of the forward value of projected earnings of the asset....while short time frame participants see value predominatey in the present value of assets.....As always I enjoy the comedy routine these deep thinkers are posting..... by the way....for those who think it might be appropriate to use this thread as their battleground for more silly comments about "value"....I invite you to copy my statement from the above and paste it into your own thread....thanks..." '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' In keeping with the comedy theme and the deep thinking let me point out a few 'truisms Not!" that I think might be be interesting for discussion...... "with the longer time frame participants viewing higher prices as "fairly valued"....why? EXCEPT - when they think markets are over valued.....then fair value might be lower. Plus many longer term participants actually have mandates to consider, and they might be forced to buy or sell as opposed to what they perceive as value. Many cannot short because of mandates, or the instruments. "because it is the longer time frame participants who view price in terms of the forward value of projected earnings of the asset".....EXCEPT those assets that dont have forward earnings (eg; gold, negative bond yields)......clearly no long term holder would ever buy those, as it explains why the retail money is clearly paying some governments to keep their money......plus there are also those who have to make relative judgments on some investments, even if none of them have forward projected earnings. There are so many exceptions to these statements, I thought you might like to clarify, even if you do make a good point as others do about varying time frames of particpants. '''''''''''''''''''''''''' In short......thanks for the contemptuousness comedy Steve --- i did not want to clutter up your thread as your own deep thinking is clearly gold. I would say that Steve is clearly an institutional type thinker with these deep insights, (is highly likely to outperform an index less his fees) and it would be well worth your while to PM him to ask why his wonderful distributions can show institutional value - which is long term, with a buy at a certain level, and in the same day, sell at a certain level which is lower - by the same institutions.....??? (my deep thinking cant go this deep - but my comedy bone was tingling - maybe when he decides to take on new students for his next course he will let you know - that for clarity was a dig, as my deep cynicism emerges.) or maybe its just a supply/demand distribution which has its own value with little relevance with what what we think others are doing but can actually take into consideration the multitude of time frames and market players, in which can pick up reasonable levels of intraday support and resistance without needing to understand who is doing what. (this for clarity is not a dig)
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What determines price.....The perception of value determines the amount of supply and demand. It is the transaction that determines price. But value means different things to different participants.....and in different instruments and types. A value investor idea of value is different to a scalpers idea of value. One value investor may also sell to another value investor in a higher level in the investment chain - eg; the first is a venture capital investor, the second a small cap investor, who then sells to a large cap investor if the price rises further. a value investor may value a mining stock differently to a banking stock, a speculator may not discern any real difference between a currency or a stock - their value being risk reward focused on price action. A farmer will have a different measure of value to an agricultural company to a speculator. Often even if the perception of value is a long way apart - the need or desire to transact by one or both parties overwhelms their ideal value, and they become a price taker rather than a participant based on what they might consider a price of good or fair value. In other words - its a market with varying participants with varying motivations....... would much be different if you had an auction system whereby everybody had 30 secs to trade once a day as opposed to a wide range of prices throughout the day?
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I would have thought this sort of of stuff has more to do with success and failure in the afterlife (those dark pool futures with delivery on expiration - pure gold Bluehorsehoe ) .................. but I would suggest all those interested start another thread dedicated to the institutions of religion and their effect on trading - might be interesting controversial and riot inducing. (maybe we could make a u tube video and offend some folks.......) (I only previously mentioned the Vatican trading room as it is definitely one of the larger more unusual non banking trading rooms I know of, plenty of commodity companies, airlines, shipping companies, agricultural companies etc; also have them.)
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Db - I pulled this out of my own trading plan that I wrote many years ago (starting to review it again)...I hope it helps rather than hinders and does not interrupt the flow of this thread........ "Due to this ever changing ebb and flow of S/R the best trade entries are not necessarily found by blindly trading breaks of price levels. The context of what has occurred previously in terms of price movement as well as the market context/bias is also important. (In other words, one price move is not equal to another price move of the same type)" Its not Wyckoff, but it seems that I have inadvertently followed a similar path......and I would imagine that many traders to become successful might do a similar thing. It is hard to auto trade - because one price move is not equal to another price move of the same type. (my recent coding experience reminds me of this) By understanding how its happening, what is happening and how the bars are printed so to speak, it becomes easier do do as you say.......... "If you can anticipate where price is most likely to break trend and move sideways or reverse and what it will do thereafter, you will be far more likely to profit from that anticipation than if you have no idea why traders are doing what they're doing and view all of this as a random sequence of events. " It becomes a bit of the "if...then....should occur" process.
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request - please keep the picture of the little kid that is on the front page of TL with this thread - That should typify all the success and failure threads -- everytime I see it I laugh and think - yep that kids got it - he knows what it is all about.