SIUYA

so what do you use when you get a margin call or an account blows up - nukes? Stops are one measure of protection, in my case they are called door locks, window bars and common sense. I have lived in what would be considered a bad neighborhood in Sydney when i was young. Junkies out the back, pros out the front, occasional local riots I got mugged once by some drunk - it was not the end of the world. At no stage did i ever feel the need to get a knife, gun or take self defense classes.....just lucky i guess.

I posted a study somewhere here at TL about other businesses.....its summary from memory was that (surprise surprise) about 90% of startup businesses fail to get bigger (so they loose money and fail, stagnate and eventually fail, or just stay small usually as its only marginally profitable). For most of those that survived it was because they had enough money to survive the first poor strategy decision. ie; risk of ruin etc. Most businesses treat losses as expenses, but the principal is the same.....survive by cutting your losses. Enough management books teach and MBA students will learn this and yet how often to companies continue to throw good money after bad - ie; they dont take their losses. Market makers still have to take losses. Plus retail trading is very different to market making as we both know......if it had not become a technology race, equity option market making for me was about minimising losses (time decay) through small scalps, a theoretical edge and gamma trading - waiting for the big moves.....I would think FX is much the same, unless you are short vol then its hoping against big moves and collecting time decay. I think the point is very valid - i just dont like the word truth (I have noticed the wife starting to say it more and more).....its going to be another list of arguments.....bring it on.

Good point....absolutely the velocity of money is important if its profitable.......you will still hit the ceiling, plus scalping v HFT v market making - i think these need to have clear distinctions. Re the compounding of interest - i should also have added the compounding of profits (either corporate or speculative). for me the issue is the scalability will limit you. Otherwise....who one scalper might make more than a swing trader for the same amount of money......until you change the amount of money. Blue - a lot of taxation issues revolve around "where are trading decisions made/implemented" - the server might be in one country, the business might be in another. The regulatory taxation arbitrage is pretty good (getting harder), whereas the effect of compounding often elinimates the requirement for taxation to reduce the long term profits. ie; you as an investor are better than the government at making money. So - leave tax out - too many variables

We know - you have already switched the the dark side and are in fact a liberal......you just did not realise it. Once Tams becomes the gun toting rampaging homicidal manic - (after of course he is a responsible law abiding citizen first) then our work here will be complete. Signing off as director general as Part of the new world order/old world order/mind control experiment...... Our slogan - we are the 'they', you are the 'us' Have a nice day, please come again or at least leave your children for us to exploit in the future.

you are right....! Tams - you must be dogmatic and steadfast in your stance, never changing your mind, never listening to the other side, never being able to further clarify your position in the hope that there are no missunderstandings. There must be no compromise, no change from the path, no deviations from the propaganda. you are not allowed to flip flop - you cannot ever think maybe the other side has a point. you can never reverse a position, modify the settings, parameters or show any form of compromise, understanding of the other side or even heavens forbid sympathy that there are aspects you agree on......you are either with us or against us .....c'mon Tams, tow the party line.....what ever party that is. You cannot support us in part, you either tow the party line and comply or you will be dealt with. Us liberals (um....not sure exactly who i am arguing for now, my alter ego is split - this could proably applied to anyone) cannot tolerate someone who supports our rights but at the same time wants to limit those rights - its all or nothing. No one remembers who comes second! Kill or be killed, love is for pussies and failure is not an option. Extremist unaltering viewpoints are my right given to me by my government!

loved the article about the lady in Loganville. (Good on her, and lets hope now that they dont ask the government for counselling for the kids. ) I did have a few questions.....(for the record, most of the questions are to tease). Initially I thought she was hiding from a lawyer/solicitor - and who could blame her as opposed to a solicitor/vendor/door to door salesman. The first should never be allowed to make house calls! I pity the poor mormans in that area - the next time they knock they had best stand clear in case someone just opens fire without asking first. Justified defense from offence? Why dont these people just put up a big fence, security wire and a sign saying 'no soliciations please', 'door to door sales men will be shot', 'f...k off and go away today, come again another day'. Maybe she should have just said - "no thanks, not interested", employed some other normal preventative security measures first....at a guess statistically speaking most people probably use this, and it its highly effective. She might have been better to have asked who it is, then maybe the person could have realised that some one was home, and then he might have moved onto the next empty place. Maybe a doorbell for friends, one for salesmen and a trapdoor for the others. Most burglaries are usually opportunistic and they will move to the next easy target. In a kind of f...d up USA legal way - could the assailant now argue... "there i was minding my own business exercising my rights to free enterprise, going about my daily break and enter routine, when i was effectively lured into a house i thought was empty and then they waited in ambush in a cupboard......whats an honest non violent criminal meant to do - arm themselves in self defense?" - pre-emptive attacks maybe - has their been a precedent for that????? and finally....WTF - shot 5 times in the face and neck and still alive, able to drive and only slightly dis-orientated. He must be blessed. '''''''''''' why would the liberal biased media report this - clearly it supports the case of the gun advocates.....maybe, just maybe the media is less biased than some fear? '''''''''''''''''''''

a little extra work but it will be worth it early on. You could also use a word document - and the best invention ever - cut and paste to drop charts into it, add notes referring to the chart. A great reference for the future.....and you will likely find it becomes streamlined very quickly if your thoughts are constantly repeated. You can even drop an excel type template into it to get the best of both worlds if required.

anyone got a chart of Japan circa 1980-2000?

you have already closed out the exposure on the position - ie; you have none except that if the accounts are at two different firms third party risk- , and now you have merely tied up two margins, are paying any interest differential on longs or shorts (DR/CR), unless they offer some sort of related account portfolio offsets, if there are any. To completely eliminate the risk - exit both positions at ideally the same price - you might have to cross the spread and pay a few $ in brokerage. Otherwise why keep two positions open with no further upside?

most powerful force in the universe - compounding interest/inflation Unless of course you want to say i made 100% in a few days. There are benefits to both depending on circumstance, but IMHO if you talk about absolutes and the most money - there is no debate assuming you are profitable - one has a 'glass ceiling' For many of those really profitable scalpers - ask - are they scalping or market making, HFT?

what would happen if you left some trades to really run? If the entry setup is really good then is the trade off worth it? If so, your solution might be to open two separate accounts. One to let it run, the other too just chip away with lots of small wins. Ultimately there is no right or wrong, you just need to get to a spot that it makes sense, and you can do it consistently. I often have an impulsive trading urge - a flaw.....sometimes i stop it, other times i just make sure i have a very tight stop when i no its not the ideal trade. I have not been able to eliminate this urge so my solution was to ensure i modify the trade management. If you cant come up with something that stops the pain/flaw - either before, or during then another profession might be in order.... OR - you modify the whole thing.....my real good easy money is made in sitting on longer term trades it seems you have a similar issue and all i can suggest is things such as ....... - look at more instruments, - out of habit place a stop on every trade (worse case, broker is happy, but you will not have any large losses - if you start moving these, well there are deeper issues), - if you only have one setup, turn off the computer at those times of the day its unlikely to give you any joy - develop another setup (the same setup with different scale outs is the same strategy multiplied, just with a different payoff) - paper trade the set up at the same time as live with 20x your ideal size - it might inoculate the mind as to what an acceptable size is - especially if its a mental qty issue and not a risk issue. - turn off the $ signs - you might not be as tempted to take the easy $250..... - if you are trading 3 contracts - take 2 contracts off at the $250, and place an order to buy 3 contacts at the original price, original stop......think about it - what has changed, you might get a second bite at it, similar/same original risk. - if the real strength is in lots of small clips - accept that, and do more instruments, work on automation for some/all of it - pretty soon $250 turns to 3x$250, to 8x$250, 20x$250 etc. I think its great that you realise the limitations of strategy, and working on it might take time as you have the pressures of requiring the income from it. It might just be a matter of review, trial and error as for what works. In time you might hope that you look at $250 and say - i wouldnt get out of bed for that.

Quote of the thread - in summary - Liberals cant trade. .........scratching head in confusion........i thought generally conservatives " seek to preserve things as they are, emphasizing stability and continuity". They did not like change, uncertainty and such. They were usually ones calling for protectionist policies to maintain the status quo. Its these stinking free market liberal thinkers that want to open up markets. Classical liberalism, a political ideology that advocates unregulated markets, limited government, rule of law, due process, and individual liberties including freedom of religion, speech, press, assembly, and others or is this just for economic, v political v social --- conservatives v liberals, left wing v right wing politcal ideologies, big v small govt, liberty v dogma Given you are such a free thinker smmatrix - i would swear you are a liberal. you just might be a small government, libertarian liberal.......or are you just a sheep sprouting off some propaganda you picked up along the way? .....no wonder this is all so confusing - all these labels, and not a free range, organic, free trade, slave free feel good choice of gun maker to pick from.......:doh:

Always hard to comment and sometimes these may/maynot help, and we have all been here, and will often revisit......but as you asked.... You already realise there is a conflict.......in other words, your plan/strategy has flaws/holes or the lack of self beleif in it. If you can recognise these, then maybe you can minimise these days....however, over the long term the problem will remain. Eliminating the conflict might minimise the "hope" and lack of systematic following of the plan. It seems it works most of the time with a high win rate, but it then appears you really dont want a high win rate, you feel you are leaving money on the table. Maybe you need to work out what it is you want to get out of trading - beyond the monetary measure. Question you might ask.... do you want to increase your size, or increase the length you run your winners? do you want to maximise your strength of a high win rate and simply increase the volume? are you uncomfortable with higher volumes, or is it the monetary values that make you uneasy? so the bread and butter trade was not the problem, you wanted to open a fine dining restaurant when you are better off increasing the sucessful chain of fast food outlets you already have.....?? do you want to increase size, or trade differently? There are trade offs to all these..... IMHO - here is a massive conflict - there is a trade off here that causes a lot of the problem......do you want to run them, or take profit quickly - dont do what theoretically makes the most money - do what you do best and what works (because the the theory falls down otherwise) You even recognise this conflict----- "unnappreciative of the gains I've been making", How to stop it - what will work for you might not work for others......but i think you need to eliminate the conflict first. Steve offers the advice of a slow and painful review - and its good advice, but dont then look for confirmation bias of what works in review or practice - because while you are in the trade and having all these thoughts once you have exited these thoughts generally go, take it the next level - Think of a trade whereby you took a profit or a loss on- a regular trade.....expand on this. You have a trade - and are running it, it reverses and gives up your unrealised profit - how do you feel? you have a trade - and a running it, it keeps going, and going and going - can you not interfere, or are you better at letting it run, or better at taking lots of small profits? Play to your strengths - it might be boring, but thats often good trading. Hope this helps in ideas.

weekend musings.... from a trading perspective if you start thinking you are going to create massive amounts of wealth then you have clearly not done your homework, would likely find that there are far better ways to make money, and might be better off being a serial entrepreneur. motivations might range from - wanting to be your own boss, less politics, no commute, more flexibility of time, etc; etc. It might also be that it simply becomes seen by some as a puzzle to be solved....a profession to be mastered. The uncertainty being a hook that keeps you in, and obsessive. Maybe generally many people start of doing what they love and it turns out they were good at it, loved it and it brought them wealth. (Trading just may be it). Plus - what is rich these days....the top 1%. 0.01%, or the top 10% - according to the list its the top 50.1% ........ as for the 21 list......most are rubbish and taking the assumption rich is about material wealth.....there are a lot of rich people who you dont know are wealthy, they think the same as you, me, or the average joe. Maybe its not that they think that differently, maybe its just the way things are - some people are wealthier than others because of a combination of factors. .and you could probably add to the list........... average people sometimes know or are content with their limitations, rich people sometimes get lucky and think it was all because of them and luck had nothing to do with it. (some of these may then revert to being average) .

could not help myself...... smmatrix - please get a lesson in statistics about causation....until then - you actually do your side in the debate a disservice....these might help you. But of course it depends on whose stats you use.... Australian Institute of Criminology - Homicide statistics Australian Institute of Criminology - Homicide weapon statistics Australian Institute of Criminology - Robbery statistics they quote...." The rate of homicide in Australia remains at about 1.2 incidents per 100,000 of the population with most of these involving family or domestic relationships." as an example " In contrast, there was an overall decrease in male victimisation from 1.8 per 100,000 males in 2006–07 (n=185) down to 1.5 per 100,000 males in 2007–08 (n=161). Further, while there was an increase in the proportion of both acquaintance-type homicides from 2006–07 (36%) to 2007–08 (42%), and family-type homicides from 2006–07 (15%) to 2007–08 (24%), male victimisations in stranger-type homicides decreased to 16 percent in 2007–08 (from 25% in 2006–07)." "In general, most homicide incidents in 2007–08 were domestic homicides involving one or more victims who shared a family or domestic relationship with the offender. Intimate partner homicides comprised the largest proportion of domestic homicides (60%)." best watch out for those you live closest with ..... i am sure you will draw your own conclusions to fit your beliefs, kindly reminding many that the culture of the USA and that of Australia may also have marked differences that have an effect......until lthen please continue to trade in the markets using your statistical knowledge. thank you have a nice day and please come again.

Ingot - goggle Gene Sharp and non violent struggle.....you might enjoy his stuff. (the liberal/conservative media does not seem to give him much attention ) ..................... and as an aside, I am going to try and stick back at the trading threads (If i can) - this is all getting too wayward - problem is trading is not offering much inspiration at present.....patience my precious.

thanks Ingot - I always enjoy little light hearted but pleasant distractions. for me a lot of this boils down to a few things..... imagination is a great thing - positive based on making the most of what is, rather than fear based (eg; 280 pd gorillas) community is extremely important - not bunches of individuals protecting themselves, locking themselves away and no - this does not mean government, and yes - community is far more than a formulaic application of a modern nuclear family. persistence and willing to give things a go - accepting the consequences as your fears probably are worse than the reality. ......... over 'Christmas' - sorry ....'happy holiday season'.....we saw a great inspiring show on the bbc about military wives choir - about how one little idea, one man (Gareth Malone) and a bunch of people willing to give something a go achieved lofty ambitions..... Military Wives - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (I dont know if you can get it in Australia - on the BBC there was a documentary - i think you might enjoy it - even if the evil powerful people are only letting us have glimpses of hope through these things. )

i hope......................

i dont have many thoughts on Japan.....i kinda gave up on it years ago. Once I had a good equity long on it thinking of a turnaround....once--- it never came, out after a few years with little over break even......stop looking at it after that. There has also been so many manipulations over there it has a non starter. re the treasuries....yes.....i am looking at a change with the mindset that when they do they can go for longer than people think...remeber when rates actually were double digits!. Until then....edge in slowly. The current mindset is still one way....luckily we dont have monthly performance numbers to worry about

While many of these things are related.....views on guns, left v right politics, left v right economics, centralisation v decentralisation, societial rights v individual rights etc etc; etc.... having views, answers, ideas, on all all of these things may not make you 'happy' if you are searching for that, try becoming a stoic. - erase the heaviness adopt the 'negative path' and reject the cult of optimism.....you might become much happier. The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can't Stand Positive Thinking: Amazon.co.uk: Oliver Burkeman: Books It even has a bit that makes sense about Zdo's mate - Ukhart Tolle Works well as an approach to trading as well. all good fun until someone looses an eye.....and that is why we have two.

this is easy.... i am gonna makes millions.... you suckers dont know what you are doing.... :doh:

To me the book is not about any conspiracy (disclaimer: not read, but followed the summaries of it and a reference from others - on the reading list of interest)......it is more about how society actually works. There is a power elite.....it is always changing in society. (I think given the posts about slavery it would interest you - plus isnt it all one big conspiracy ) and what is wrong with the bathroom mirror - why do we all need to be illuminated? It could be questioned as how is it that so often these folks who can look at themselves in bathroom mirror justify their actions to themselves rather than actually facing themselves. To often in my personal experience its the illuminated ones who cause the most problems. I have a completely separate theory of control....its not about fear and love.....its about the need to control - oneself, the weather, others, what we fear, who and what we love, where we live, our destiny etc; etc..... but its all just thoughts.

thoughts............ in summary - free markets are prone to bubbles because they are made up from humans fear and greed, - Keynsians are prone to exacerbating slower bigger bubbles because they too are human. Both appear to have excessive leverage as their answer to (be it that there is money printing, excessive borrowing or whatever). 1. Debt and financialization ..............too much leverage in various forms..... 2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability .....due to dodgy accounting to hide the leverage, real risks and the fact that other peoples money is used. 3. Diminishing returns ....answer.....use more leverage. 4. Centralization ...... even capitalists try to hide here either through government regulation, protection or collectives. (think banks, pharmaceticals.) 5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy....in order to access more of other peoples money and extra access to leverage. To survive the coming armagedon when money becomes worthless.......borrow money.....and invest in real assets. and Zdo just in case you have not come across this... PEOPLE For Mathematically Perfected Economy™ [PFMPE™] | HOME — SOLUTION, PURPORTED MONETARY REFORM, OR INHERENT FAILURE BY INTEREST?

i like the button factory idea..... the scary thing is the 'they' is pretty much us.....you, me, anyone with self interest.

depends if you think the world is 4 billion or 4000 years old. .....short term also becomes relative Ingot - every heard of The Power Elite - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia thought it might interest you.