SIUYA

Zdo - "False narratives repeated often enough may become accepted as truths... but they are still false. lies, damn lies,and statistics * 250" Absolutely - using false or selective statistics to prove a point or bust a myth is done by both sides...... I just looked at the Australian myth in the pdf you posted - very selective. (I did not worry about the others) The pdf is from 2012 - but they use only data until 2000. What they then fail to mention is that the trend for both homicides and for homicides by gun victims has declined over the long term. Was this due to better policing, less guns (or more as the gun ban has not changed the number of weapons in Australia as has been recently shown - gun lovers and haters selectively forgot this ), better gun checks, more responsible owners, better economic conditions......??? a combination of all. and this one...... Myth: Registration does not lead to confiscation (eg; Fact: It did in Australia. In 1996, the Australian government confiscated over 660,000 previously legal weapons from their citizens.) ---- I know of people who laughed at handing in their previously useless old weapons that either never got used, or sat in cupboards. They then went out and registered and purchased new ones that they are more likely to use thanks to the government buy back --- a more accurate description than confiscation. Trying to bust a myth using poor data inferences is the same as telling a lie enough times that it becomes the truth. Like a trader saying - Fact:- I made money last month trading, ---when the reality is - if it had not been for the brokerage, slippage, missed trade that would dug myself out of the hole, and the fact that my bank account is less at the end of the month than it was at the stat, but at some stage during the month i was up. So thanks for pointing out that - i assume he is pro-gun - load of selective rubbish. Good to keep a balanced argument. The gun lovers have their own spurious stats they use too often.

1..not sure....cant think of any that have the all seeing eye and swims with the fishes. 2...Lehman BROTHERS 3...JP MORGAN 4....Lost

A journal should be used to compare, revise and learn from - its not just a recording of data. (My broker does that...i dont ned an assistant.) I think you sum up in a way what happens to many - beautiful form coming into the race, nice start, quick out of the gates - no stamina. When i first started in this game i moved house and had over 500 pages of hand written a4 notes and reams of charts - not including books etc. and all the stuff i threw away (cut and paste these days makes you lazy).....it was scary what you think you did and did not know. Even now (while admittedly i dont keep a journal like i used to because i generally know when i f...k up) I still review my trades......work out if there was anything i did right/wrong, what i should have done. Takes 5 mins.....helps reinforce certain things.....and you know what - there is usually one a few things that get repeated. Its not hard....but most still dont do it. view it as a checklist - simple easy and blatantly obvious when something is not ticked off. 1...did i wait for an alert to show me the trade might start to occur 2...did i wait for a good entry into the trade 3...did i panic out, or wait until either my stop was hit or the trade showed my original plan was not working out as i had thought. 4...did i run until target (this might not be a target or might be a change in situation) 5...extra notes - keeps these generic and easy to sort. eg; 'good patience, poor patience, impulsive entry, impulsive exit, panic exit too early. Simple. You dont need it to be such that - "The pope is sick, i was worried the global vatican leaders might push forward their plans for world domination and enslave us all, so i took so profits and shorted the USD." - one for the GQ

It is always worth knowing both fundamental and technical aspects - and be prepared to have plenty of arguments over both. Given your quant bent, I would focus on both, but ensure you focus on the maths side. A lot of fundamental analysis is individually tailored to a single stock, while a quant model might be more inclined to help construct a portfolio. It can also be used on single instruments as well......but dont throw either approach out. Many quants are currently distancing themselves from Technical analysis. Some see it totaly seperately others as part of it. Books will never be outdated on this until someone finds the holy grail! Most books will give you bits of the puzzle and you have to be able to get what value there is out of them. Some are technical - as a quant, learn from these. Some are more discretionary and might give you ideas to test, and understand what does and does not work and what can and cannot be modeled, back tested etc. as for maths - econometrics/statistics and probability...calculus and anything to do with data series and analysis. You are young and not wasting your time. Lets say you apply 30mins a day (less than your facebook/porn addiction maybe ) to learning/studying some aspect of finance. You are 18 ? - by the time you are 28 you will know plenty - more than most - just as you get into peak earning years. Even if you are not in finance - this information will be useful to have. There are plenty of lists of books around - the Dude offers some good ones. They might be a bit advanced but hey throw yourself in the deep end. One other thing you should do - even though its sometimes not recommended - at your age i would select some random stocks - select some stocks scientifically - and then track them. See how they go for 6 months. Follow them, see how they move, how they react - that is a good education for a start.

I dont think anyone doubted Rogers claims so much as as apparent constant marketing that he comes up with - and as for a generous offer even though he wont accept anyone from TL as a client as he will not charge them, -"I WILL NOT ACCEPT ANY PAYMENT IN ANY FORM FROM ANY TL FORUM SUBSCRIBER" - and only full fee paying clients will be charged...Not sure how that will work............he might not think so, but many others perceive it to be continual marketing...... ....and the clarity that he says he can make on average $1000 per day using 2 contracts - he verified he can do this - so this is directly related to this thread..... Roger seemed to get a little up tight by this and wanted to bring into question my review last year - this room was largely positive - I even offered to not further discuss it unless he wanted to....#76 - which he then proceeded to bring up his systems again.....#78. Basically the continual marketing...... As for his room- i just did not think it was good value and there were other reasons i gave for why i thought it might have issues. Even though in his room he trades SIM - they are live calls, and he provides no evidence of this in terms of statements.....all this has been discussed before in the previous threads.......I was even a supporter of his, but he appears not to like any criticism at all. Anyone is free to contact him and trial his room for themselves and make their own mind up.....whats fairer than that.

I have agenda so its not obvious to me - previously this was all on good terms until you wanted to bring it up again....or so i thought. This is not a threat, its not slander - It appears you want to bring up things and promote yourself again and you do so by introducing the previous thread by saying my previous review was insufficient.......... ............................ Regards THIS THREAD - you claim by trading 2 contracts per day averaging $1000 in each instrument (this is a claim as you dont provide statements to back it up - nothing wrong with that - but because if this it makes it a claim) "Your misunderstanding of how 1K is made with 2 contracts is due to your not asking any questions when you visited us" - I for this thread just wanted clarity as thats what normal how understandings are reached......but you wish to drag up the past in some sort of promotion and attack on me..... ................. All this has been said and done before..... I will direct anyone to the thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/4883-feltontrading-method-17.html as i reminded myself of my post #134 on page 17 Lets see if you can do the same. Or are you going to prove Mitsubishi is on the right idea......

I didn't read it that way at all - I understood it and even from Lastnijnjas diagram - from 5 to 6 it was incremental. QUOTE=Roger Felton;173425] Roger - i wanted to assess your trading room, and without going into the whole thing again. I did ask questions and I have been around long enough to understand a few things without in depth information for what i needed....etc; etc; etc;....I was assessing for what was a short period of time as to its value.......we dont need to repeat or this here....unless you want to. I understand but that's like trying to assess a potential wife after knowing her for a week. There's a lot more to learn. By not spending actual learning time with me, SIUYA, you don't know what an SA signal is, an SM or a BR. You don't know what a Supreme Renko looks like or how it functions totally unique to all others. You don't know what the PowerSlope is or what it does and you're probably clueless as to what a Directional Strength Index is or what it does. Had you simply requested a personal chat with me, I would have gladly shown and explained them to you. You spent a few days in the public trading room and, from that, thought you knew enough to make a meaningful evaluation. In reality, you knew very little. The Trading Room isn't where we divulge everything to the world. That's for trading, not teaching. The learning is done in private one-on-one's. So in other words - when i was evaluating the chat room it was impossible to do so because certain information was not going to be revealed? To do more than that required me to pay money ------ forbidden according to you so WTF? Look Roger if you wish to get into the whole debate again then fine I will just release ALL the notes - I made. They may not be as flattering as what I said......up to you. Fancy indicators, names etc are all the same - if you use discretion to buy and sell you are likely to be doing it similarly to anyone else who is successful.....no matter the names or systems you like to call them. My criticism still remains the same regardless of your system - which you did not reveal, or would not as its forbidden...... that is that it is not necessarily of value to everyone and that it is in SIM. I did not need to spend months to come to that conclusion.....if you want to rabbit on about how I did not do enough then whatever. Thanks for the clarity on the AVERAGE - thats what this thread is about. Roger for most part I agree with you except.....you offer a system with special coding, and ideas, lots of discretion and fancy names (see above) - this requires special mentoring......This is where what you say comes across/may be interpreted/ may be perceived as BS - this is not, can never be offered to any TL customers......right. Even with this, and a good mentor the trader still has to put the work in, the system still has to be suited to the traders personality - or they will meddle....... This is a quote from my notes - said by one of your students-- "Comment about – complaint that Roger is constantly tweaking and coming up with new things!!!!" now - back to thread......

While being superstitions is not the worst thing in the world, I for one have had the occasional giggle internally at getting something with the number 69 on it......the problem is he has not taken himself out of the genepool yet to win an award! mind you it does not like he would believe in Charles Darwins ideas anyway. I like the idea and will keep my eye out for some unusual ones - other than the normal ones. thanks

thanks for the response....you do see the irony that you have to have armed guards in the most dangerous place in the world - clearly everyone gets shot outside the malls. Great for the retail sector! I agree that a grass roots level of thinking is required.....I dont agree it needs to be with more weapons - thats all. Maybe as some have suggested elsewhere this is a particular situation for the USA - there are to many weapons already out there, the culture is attuned to it, and maybe its a solution.......but stick with me on this one..... what happens if you are wrong. It is generally easier to pick up a weapon than to put it down. Even in your own example Honduras, armed guards - not armed citizens are used. Maybe the US law officers should be taken off solving crimes after they are committed and used more as security guards....

Maybe life can be summed up by beverages.... Creative drinking

Taking away the 'bogey man; of the government ideas - --- This shows that even if the armed and highly trained law enforcement officers cant get it right and the NRAs solution is to have more people armed in the schools etc; is the idea of complete idiots. Hold the cops accountable of they have done something wrong, or attempt to improve their methods.....of wtf - why bother doing anything.....just let them continue on doing their best to protect themselves while doing their job. as for the other site, everyone knows the government has been killing off people and imprisoning its own folks for years. the real scary thing is that its often done more and more for profit reasons.......hell even Australia was settled as a slave colony pretending to be a penal colony. Maybe the government should scrap laws -- oh wait - they are. If the energy on the debate about the 2nd amendment was applied to these other issues maybe there would be less requirement for the 2nd amendment.....but hey - we are all doomed so wtf. Grab the gun, hunker down and wait for the door to be kicked open.

sorry - this thread is this thread and has nothing to do with the debate, this thread is not even a debate, and if thats the best you have left :doh: - my bad used the wrong word. So I will change it - It might sum up the thread for you Zdo - too bad there are others who might have different opinions. and lets quote me completely.... "like arming yourself - that might diminish the prospects of certain things happening, but it still does not eliminate other possibilities...." and for those with a lack of imagination....other possibilities...... - no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you will still be a victim or crime, - no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you will still not be able to defend yourself or others if that crime occurs - no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you have introduced other dangers into the home - no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you or your family become mentally illl enough to go on a rampage, or merely act in the heat of passion and shoot someone just because the best weapon readily available was a gun. -no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you will still be a victim or crime, and because they know/suspect you have a gun they shoot first. -no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you are irresponsible -no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you become a target of the very things you fear -no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you are not properly trained to deal with the situtation if it arises -no matter how armed you are it will not eliminate the possibility that you shoot an innocent person in the process .....now of course some of the above could also occur if you were not armed. no laws will guarantee anything, but your answer appears to be to do nothing. It has been said early on in the thread that if people want to simply accept the situation and the consequences then they should - problem is neither side does. I hope you apply your same bias to those who wish to arm people even further in an effort to do something and the consequences that might come out of that. ....i dont see much response from you about that Even taking the idea of new laws out of the equation.....what about improving the existing ones.....what about making sensible laws that work for all parties......what about trying to do something that might help change the culture or other situations that cause theses mass shootings - or is that your main point.....? There are other causes. Of course there are do you propose nothing is done here either as it probably wont eliminate the possibilities? sorry if there is too much word twisting for you, but the rest of this is BS if you chose not to use the available tools at your disposal if you think there is a problem to be fixed - or maybe you dont think there is a problem?

It might sum up the debate for you Zdo - too bad there are others who might have different opinions. or maybe its just that stinking lib/conservative media stirring things up again. i guess that depends on if you think there is a difference between saying "we have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to diminish the prospects of it happening again" Or that the laws will "nothing we are going to do is going to fundamentally alter, or eliminate the possibility...... or guarantee that we will bring down " the numbers. on one hand you could shrug your shoulders and say lets not do anything as we cant eliminate all possibilities, or you could say lets try and do something - and that includes those wanting to arm more citizens, or yourself that includes wanting to do things - like arming yourself - that might diminish the prospects of certain things happening, but it still does not eliminate other possibilities....

Roger - no one suggests you go from 2 to 20. You go from 2-3-4-5-6, so long as you have consistent profitability. Some traders never want to step up extra size, or are simply incapable.....but surely you agree that if you are successfully profitable with 2 contracts then trading an extra contract is the easiest (or an easy) way to increase profitability? Roger - i wanted to assess your trading room, and without going into the whole thing again. I did ask questions and I have been around long enough to understand a few things without in depth information for what i needed....etc; etc; etc;....I was assessing for what was a short period of time as to its value.......we dont need to repeat or this here....unless you want to. In keeping on topic..... So you are saying that you do make on average $1000 per instrument per day using 2 contracts. I am not saying it cant be done, but trying to clarify for the thread question, what is claimed can be done. its called sarcasm and humor Roger and if you could look beyond the vendor flak you might see this. The most expensive systems are those the trader does not test and prove to themselves that if applied correctly and consistently they work or dont work - free or not. If you gave me a system and charged me for it - by your implication its a better system than one that is for free - even if they both loose me money. Taking out someones own hard work, sweat, mistakes and experience it could be seen that the best systems are actually free.

Roger - FWIW - I thought you did charge for people to sit in your room and watch, as a one or two week free trial may not be enough to learn much especially when using your proprietary indicator/price patterns.....I may be wrong here - and am not talking about being able to ask questions, or get one on one time with you - a different thing. My assessment was always that it might not be great value to pay for this for many new traders, and there were are few other concerns. Otherwise I do think you most likely have things to teach, and if people dont take the opportunity to sit and watch and listen when its free well than that may be their loss. (are you sure you are not just trying to get them in the store to upsell them ? ) As a vendor Roger you will always take some extra flak..... As an aside when you say "1K a day is doable with 2 contracts" from what I saw it might be better to add "1K a day is doable with 2 contracts using multiple instruments at the same time" Lastninja has a good point - if you have something that makes $200 a day reliably, then simply increase the volume button - this might all fall apart for some strategies or traders, OR it might run into risk of ruin issues if the capital is not sufficient for a string of losses. Otherwise its the simplest easiest solution there is - once you are consistently profitable. As for Ingot - well - i am sure once he sets his pay pal up he would get the same flak as any vendor

congratulations for that.....but what alternatives are you suggesting if you dont want laws? Now I am not saying that there are not too many laws or more the point - often the laws could be termed inefficient and maybe need to be continually scrapped and rewritten for the times, however - it gets a little confusing when people talk about criminals and laws and then say that we think we are governed by laws when we are not. Patuca - you have already shown in the puzzles page with that riddle that you would prefer to - teach everyone a lesson, wanted to manipulate the scene to your own ways of doing things, could not even be bothered to count the number of uncles registered when you set the rules, release a riddle that does not conform with normal grammar (using Yet instead of yet - a proper name v an adverb or conjunction) and hence in writing it (as opposed to verbal communication) is deliberately deceiving- so its kinda hard to take you too seriously when you say such things and yet do things which a tyrant might do. (or is Yet the tyrant?) should the call be more effective laws, new laws, no laws, revised laws.... Which is why I ask - what alternatives are you suggesting?

something similar - go the non newtonian blob..... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaYvYysQvBU]Collin's Lab: DIY Cymatics - YouTube[/ame]

Hard to tell with the Whale situation - was it an internal failing of processes of risk, a bullying bad trader (allla Corzine), or was it simply the blinded trader. The differences between a 'retail' or sole trader v a corporate employed trader can be immense due to these extra constraints and different pressures. You are 100% correct about the continual vigilance and I guess the euphoria is more often termed over confidence - master of the market sort of crap. Some firms encourage it - take on size, get bigger etc; etc; as opposed to keeping on eye on certain traders. Some traders are great in bull markets, others bears, and a good manager often needs to know this, work out when to unleash the right beast - While if the individual trader really believes it then yep they are likely to be destined for a fall. Which is why DbP (just as a great example) and others impress the need to drill a good plan that is tested and adhered to - this way the trader is not the person pushing the buttons - the plan is. Mind you this might not suit everyone and sometimes artistic licence makes the good trader using general rules - however - your point of vigilence is maybe a defining trait that is not often noted in the successful 'artistic' trader v the methodical one, v the unsucessful trader (using any method). Too often I think that these things get said time and time again - the old trading truisms - "you are only as good as you last trade", "stick to plan", "dont get emotionally involved", "dont fall in love with a trade" ---- when they are merely really saying be eternally vigilant as to your own fallibility. I read somewhere Soros used to always remind himself 'I am fallible" - so even if people say he is a power hungry so and so, blah blah blah - maybe when it comes to trading his great strength is the acknowledgement on a constant basis of his fallibility as a trader....... makes you think - we have stickers everywhere reminding us - 'cut losses', 'be dsciplined', 'run winners' maybe we just need to have a sticker saying - "Remember you are likely going to be wrong" - embrace the negativity!

Problem is Patuca - what alternative are you proposing? How do you define good and bad, what are you going to propose the bad are 'controlled' with. You seem to be proposing an America that is a nation governed by the rule of the gun. The NRA seems to represent arms manufacturers these days with its one stop solution These are serious questions that I think require answering..... (I know you think that you dont give a sh.t what others think of you - what governs you? what rues do you adhere to, and what do you do if people disagree with you?)

So....you would rather listen to a bunch of strangers than your friends? Yes people make money in FX. It might not be huge and you are more likely to loose than make it. Suggestion.... Now go back to your friends - open an account with their dodgy broker they are recommending, probably for kick backs and ask them how they are making soooooo much money. Be prepared to loose friends. Otherwise.....continue to read TL

This could be applied for so many aspects of life..... (scroll down the word document and read it slowly as the two pictures are revealed.) LESSON FOR TODAY_funny.docx

There is a big difference in a mentor and protege relationship v a coach/teacher and player relationship.

just reading my prior response being a little random....specifically.... from what i have seen. If these are actual issues as opposed to just concerns.... A euphoric trader usually is a gambler. they either need to change this or they will blow up quickly at some stage. (it might be years down the track or it the current market context changes) Taking profits too early (dependant on system) is the opposite - they will slowly bleed. (As they say the big money is in the sitting)

You too... 100% agree - the people I have seen trade the best usually manage trades the best. Most people have no problems getting in, and I have seen many more impulsive/trigger happy (my own issue) rather than fear of pulling the trigger traders. (I wonder if hindsight (false memory) has a lot to do with this - ;ie; they think I have seen this before I will get in early, when in fact what they have really seen is this before, but they forget that patience is worth it - sort of that thinking fast and slow idea) Managing the trade once the money is at play is certainly and issue - I used to think it was because of the money, but i actually think its about control (I have a long winded completely uneducated theory about control and the desire to control and be right, much more so than fear and greed) As to different mindsets - yep - the need to do things, to feel like we are right, to earn our money is a strange one.......think about it this way.....in many businesses you are paid by the hour, or the job, or a progression of acheivements.....in trading you push the button and the market does the rest. Maybe we dont feel that we earn the money, that we actually need to do things to earn that money. The need to meddle. Not sure - I sometimes randomly think about these things and usually conclude that every one has their individual motivations that one size does not fit all. Maybe lazy people make great traders if given a thorough plan with good (better than random ) entries. (I have always wanted to do an experiment with various people putting on different components of the trade - pip dream) Whose concerns are these? You mention a lot of roles and each of these will have different objectives, ideas and incentives. A trader is completely different to a sales person/manager/rrisk manager/CEO - many are simply trying to protect their butts! There used to be jokes about the floors that as a trader if you blew up, do it swinging big - talk the talk, trade large and act euphoric - why? Because the managers would then believe that they would pick you up when you are sacked, manage the risk, they know you can handle size (not everyone can, and yet firms often need this). If that manager gets you right, then they make a name for themselves, if they are wrong - its the traders fault.....There are lots of plays at work here, so I guess you might have to be careful who you say what to ...so...... In keeping the euphoria strictly to a trader.....is this the documented issue, or simply what they think is the issue or major concern? What I have observed in the professional traders I have worked with is that either euphoria based trading or taking profits too early are the major concerns they bring to work on. What is your experience on this? Well as for thoughts.....and these are off the cuff random to get the juices flowing.... Is euphoria maybe part of wanting to take profits early? The confirmation of being right, the high of success while forgetting the past/future losses that have/will occur. Assuming they are different...... Too many traders have pressures brought to bear by their superiors (wife/family commitments as well) that it is sometimes difficult to separate the real issue. Maybe they have had a bad week previous, maybe its the end of the year near bonus, how is their bonus calculated, what are their peers doing in terms of PL. etc; etc; So this needs to be taken into consideration. Most euphoria I feel when I have been trading well, and when I have seen others trade well is after all is said and done - after the adrenaline (are these separate?) and the trades are closed and they think its a job well done - so I guess that if you are too euphoric to be getting a positive PL then you are likely to take profits early. (How many of us have a good day but now it should have been better, or vice versa) In a firm a good manager probably needs to be a good macro trader - to know when to let a trader run something, when to rein them in and to reward them (the thorny issue) for a job well done. Unless of course the managers want a bunch of scalpers and quick profits......an individual trader may have different pressures. But they play a part. What about relief to be out of a trade? .....sorry digressing..... Euphoria -.....over time Euphoria for an individual trade should decrease (but not for the market or process), Too many traders forget the next series of trade, or past trades and think only of the profit now....I would imagine these guys have not properly planned the trade - they got lucky maybe. (I remember having some great lucky trades and the euphoria is pretty high - you have to still have a policy of how to deal with them - do you always take PL or let it ride, or can you still manage the trade as it is. Its probably as damaging as fear.) Taking profits - definitely related to euphoria and poor planning. Personally I think the more I read about others, and maybe this relates to my own personal preferences - this is more damaging than people think. (Unless of course this is the plan) So assuming letting things run, either until the situation changes or a TP is hit is the plan, this is simply failure to adhere to plan......even option market makers would fall foul of this - not paying up for something when they know they should, selling 'expensive' options when they want to take profits too quickly - loosing their books (different these days as its more electronic) Basically why do the work to worry about an entry if you are going to meddle with the planned exit. Either let it ride or actively manage, not TP just because. Hope thats good food for thought and not too random. (I have specific trades and traders stories but they might not be relevant - apart form the one friend who ordered us to make him cut his position when he stood up on the desk with pumped fists because he got it right - his problem was that it usually signaled the end of the move when his euphria really arrived, he got it right but was just getting greedy. It worked - he hated us for doing it but thanked us after - some even took the other side if they liked the trade)

Sorry - this would have to classify as bad advice of the worst kind. (uis that a double negative?) Lets say you cant spell, but you get someone who can spell badly, but at least better than you - think of the mistakes you would have to unlearn first before actually being able to learn to spell correctly again. You are far better continuing your search for a good mentor, and work out a lot of stuff yourself at the same time.....and as they say a protege does not get to choose - they are instead chosen. Anyone who thinks that just anyone with some knowledge can successfully pass on adequate/good/exceptional knowledge that is appropriate to the student may be consigning themselves to the 'sorry but keep trying brigade'