SIUYA

You are right Perrin - maybe the key is in finding out and admitting you are average...nothing wrong with that. There are a couple of different folks who gave lectures who were traders re the Turtles....there is a lot of arguments over why, who, how what worked. Not worth it to go there, but i would say that one of the best things i read about it was an admittance by Curtis Faith (I think) in that he realised that at the time when it started he was successful in the program because his job was not to do anything but follow his instructions - his job was to be a robot. After that once you have learnt a system, understood it, and made it successful - whats wrong with tailoring it to suit your needs or personality or strengths. Robert Greene wrote a recent book about mastery - as a brief summary - do your time, learn your craft, and then show your mastery. Everyone wants a quick fix, easy answers , everyone wants to be master of their craft in a day. Does not happen (except for through the outliers in large numbers)

Gekko, I am not arguing with you that your system does not work, or that your system and method does not work well for you.....I am merely pointing out that its wrong to assume its the only way, the best way or that you know what everyone else is doing and thinking in the markets. That using a chart requires using an indicator etc; etc; (Its a trap to think there is only one way of doing something in trading) I might have missread your post/intention initially when you started saying you know what professionals are doing, that it you dont use volume you are behind the eight ball. I am glad you have found someone doing something successful and it works for you. That is not a trap, that is an achievement. The trap is thinking its the only way, the right way, the truth, and that everyone else is wrong. If you dont understand this then you never will. As for posts - Everyone will disagree, so long as its civil, otherwise imagine how simple a forum would be. One post and 50,000 thanks. ..... I like it when I can be shown to be wrong, or am convinced to change my mind. .............................. Some of us dont use volume and can also be successful and trade differently, and we dont try and second guess individual orders flashing in and out, we watch collective market movements, waves, cycles, context, support and resistance, watching for the false breaks you talk about and using what if scenarios (whatever works --- If you are using MAs to scalp then you probably are going to be struggling). ..........much the same as you except without second guessing if volume is real or fake .....my opinion on this is simple. To me there is nothing conclusive about flashes of volume that tells me anything. To me it adds to confusion, adding another subjective measure as opposed to simplifying things. But that is just my way of seeing it. (I used to be an option market maker, and if you think watching a DOM is hard, try watching 4 screens of numbers with 50 different strikes, series and constantly changing numbers over multiple instruments, or being on a floor with 50 a4 sheets of theoretical prices searching for the right one - Let me tell you, your memory and ability to guess improves immensely and you learn to eliminate superfluous info - thank god for computers ) .......... as to your question about floor traders.....some of us used to work on floors.....and then as much as now many people trade differently. Some of us used to fill in charts throughout the day when we could. Some remembered levels, some front ran incoming orders, others just listened (a lost sense unfortunately) and felt the vibe of the market. This is where i learnt to ignore volume as I saw too much spoofing, too much irrelevant information. I can relate plenty of stories of this were people got sucked in, scared, or greedy due to volume. While I still know other good traders who like to use volume....each to their own. Plus, dont think that floor traders all made money - the edge of the floor kept many in business but that did not mean they could trade, nor did it ensure you made money. Plenty came, lost and disappeared. They still do in many of the big rooms you see today. ................... Using a tick chart - a 1 tick chart that registers every move in a tick (not just registering each tick, but the move) is satisfactory IMHO......why --- because you then integrate it in your overall context you might have, and scenario analysis......exactly the same as what you are doing except without worrying about volume. As for the demon --- well if you look around the room and you dont know who the sucker is.....LOL Personally IMHO - there is no Demon, there is just the market and sometimes people wanting to feel like they are competing against someone, as opposed to themselves. If that helps them so be it.....though I think it hinders more than it helps many ............. now as to how or why futures are better, then its simple if you require volume, futures are probably better. If you dont then there are other pros and cons that might sway you in an other direction assuming you are talking mainly about FX.

Gekko - you are falling into the trap many do ....that if you use a chart, you are tied to indicators.....wrong that you know how all professional traders trade ..... wrong that you think all professional traders trade the same way....wrong that retail traders have not been professional traders in their careers...wrong that all retail or all professionals are taught the same things (or vastly different things).......wrong Every one can see the same info and get varying viewpoints Personally I dont see many professional hedge fund guys worrying about what the retail market is doing. They are more worried about what others who are larger or similar size than them are going to do. (I think the whole distinction many people put on this is rubbish any way, and i do agree too many people are looking for clarification/quantification to do things - mind you some people make a living out of this anyway.) As a retail guy, whats stopping you from emulating what the hedge fund guy is doing? Follow him if you know how they operate. How do you know which level is important to him? A tick chart will show you a lot of what you are saying that in real time, usually after you have done your what if scenario, and if you dont do that then you are relying on reacting regardless of the tools..... how does bid ask volume which is illusionary most of the time show you what you are suggesting? The volume has to print to be relevant, otherwise it is theoretical right? I ask this as you are claiming its importance and I am saying it not necessary for some. (Personally I think they are all showing the same info (DOM, chart), some people rely on volume as an extra, some of us dont - simple, its just a preference of what you want to read.)

Gekko, you are correct that you can get more information looking at volume, however personally I have never looked at volume and find volume to add no value - so the information is useless to me.....never, ever apart from that one time at band camp. So using volume for me is in your analogy- like having a hammer with an added mutli grip plier tool attached when all i need is hammer. Basically my opinion is that it clouds the issue and that for me the issue is one of where is price going, likely to go and or where is a good level to get in and out. Of course if it adds value for you then use it, but I find its not necessary. In order to see what happened a tick chart is enough, you can tell its speed, levels of rejection, see small waves occuring etc....but i still trade off the higher level context because that is where my view/setup etc is formed. If i am watching intently (which i assume is what is needed to be watching a DOM) then I just need to watch a tick chart for much the same information......afterwards the rest become history. As you say each to their own.

Thanks - Unfortunately quoting the Bible, or just as importantly in some places, not quoting the Bible will always raise eyebrows. There is certainly a lot of typing in anything, but hey we are tribal often we type ourselves into a particular group and go along with everything that group is meant to represent, even if we dont agree with it.....and thats probably worse that sitting outside the group and typing IMHO. How often does a gun loving, NRA hating, radical liberal social, but economic conservative anarcocapitalist get to really speak out against the people who are supposed to represent him/her/it? (not saying that is anyone and just to even it up.) How often does a gun hating, SUV driving, deeply religious socially liberal, economic maxist, amoral Sharia law abiding person get to really speak out about the people who are supposed to represent them? As for preparation - well its system and strategy specific I guess, and accepting the obvious trade offs, pitfalls, drawdowns and returns associated with that. ................ i did like the 'until they are 25 years old' bit. As for asking a question that not answered - I ask plenty - dont worry too much if it was important i would likely repeat.

Zdo dont take this the wrong way..... I looked this up..... Psalm 23:4 (King James Version) Psalm 23:4 King James Version (KJV) 4 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. If thats the right one..... A person could real that as you equating your guns as a god....? Is 'thou' God or guns.... Otherwise, what did you mean by this post? (I dont think God and guns have anything to do with each other so i guess i am wondering why they get introduced......apart from the idea that a god given right exists (or a natural sense of justice and fairness exists) to defend yourself --- in that every human being should be able to do this....regardless of god/type of god/ or no god) (History usually had kings etc; being given dividne rights so that others - their servants and subjects - had no rights) just wondering....and not to get too side tracked. thanks.

Which is why I underlined in my post - "Often retail customers cant make the minimum account holdings for a good broker" - when I ring them up - very rarely required - I get straight through on a line to someone either in the US, Switzerland or Hong Kong..... Yes - their data is not the best, and it maybe inadequate for some - but there are options around whereby you can use a separate data provider. Personally I am happy to promote a broker that i think does a good job in many respects and I have no affiliation with them. Each person can try out what suits them, and we can all hope the bucket shops dont do too much damage (wishful thinking I know)

a lot of the complaints about the FX market should in fact be leveled at the type of bucket shop broker who plies their customer with promises of riches, excess leverage, low or zero commissions and or spreads - and then trades against them with unfair rules. Often retail customers cant make the minimum account holdings for a good broker. Additionally, it has taken longer than is required for many FX spreads to collapse, brokers to become more transparent and electronic.....those who dont usually get left behind or prey on the low hanging fruit. A good FX broker generally does not trade against you, the spreads are smaller, the margins better and the liquidity deeper than in the futures.......either market is fine - the broker is probably the major determining factor. eg: I use Interactive brokers - today i saw (yes with my own two eyes) at least three times in the EURUSD a similar spread in the futures of 1.3107 - 09 in the FX 1.3055-06 --- with more size in the FX I direct attention to this FWIW......http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/?f=%2Fen%2Ftrading%2Fpdfhighlights%2FPDF-Forex.php I have no affiliation with them but would recommend them as a broker.

Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha: - miners, prospectors and company directors are all above board....:doh: So does this mean - gold is actually more expensive to mine and hence shortages of supply are likely to occur, OR the other numbers from the gold miners about reserves and production cant be believed, OR if you have a view on something, a texas hedge aint the best thing to use. ................... Did you see the other article about Jamie Dimon saying Banks have too much capital http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/dimon-says-banks-to-have-more-capital-than-they-know-how-to-use.html ......somehow in my warped mind i see a lot of this as being related.

are you talking about the old normal becoming the new normal becoming the old new normal? Even if something is predictable - you have to act on it, follow through, ensure you are not too early, too late or in fact have actually judged the cycle correctly....same old issues of defining and measuring a cycle..... How many contrarians are they that always have positions even if you are not technically in an overbought, oversold, bull or a bear market.....in other words why do they have a position? How many bull/bear markets occur and people are trying to pick the tops and the bottoms - just to get a position or say they were right? Plus maybe it just the simple thing of - we are human, we make mistakes, many of us repeat those mistakes. Best leave these thoughts to those who trade cycles profitably and have better thoughts on them than me. :missy:

Berlusconi is the new black swan. Just when you think it is safe - he comes up behind you and grabs you on the butt. .......... on a more serious note - nothing has changed, the debt remains, the same problems remain and people have less trust in things - more indecision means more uncertainty and more mistrust. Lessons not learnt.

Dude - I had to laugh with the introduction of Freud and this line.....it reminded me of Bill Clinton and his definition - "I did not have sexual relations" "During the grand jury testimony Clinton's responses were carefully worded, and he argued, "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is",[3] in regards to the truthfulness of his statement that "there is not a sexual relationship, an improper sexual relationship or any other kind of improper relationship."[4] .....just a side thought. There are some quant funds who distance themselves from TA as they dont want to be tarred with the same brush and yet they run historical prices back through all their models and tests, and claim not to rely on subjective or fundamental value driven models.... - its all marketing IMHO. (I am with DBP on this - its either TA or FA - the rest is a matter of degree/usage/BS/chicken entrails ----- all still just another tool - maybe the thread should be called ''Dont be fooled by definitions")

I liked that one from the movie - great refusal for something regardless of the beliefs...... There is also the classic from the Greatest.... Muhammad Ali, who in June 1967, was convicted for refusing to be conscripted into the US Army, saying, "No Vietnamese ever called me a nigger".

Good to now that the ONLY reason - the only relationship - between winners and losers is the use of a chart.......here in lies the flaw in your argument. To destroy your argument you would only need to find one successful trader who exclusively uses charts or some form of technical analysis or price action.....any of the three would do. Telling people to throw away the chart might work - better advice might be to say - learn to use it, dont rely on it and understand there is a lot more to trading than just reading a chart....it does not hold all the answers. You are right in some respects - too many retail traders rely on a chart and see it as the only thing - thats just lazy.......but that does not mean that they are going to make you unsuccessful. (I am pretty sure this is not what you mean, but maybe it is, and if so ..........)

I agree with what you are saying except in the idea of throwing away the charts. They are still a tool - best to realise what they can be properly used for, how to use them and how to read them......all they do is show you the levels (rather than remembering them), show you visually the change in behaviour as its happening, and they can make it easy to allow you to anticipate where things might occur, and when they are occurring....a road map. (They do not represent anything more than that - no matter how many fancy lines they have on them ) A chart is just a visual way to do exactly what you are suggesting winning traders do. Just throwing away a tool wont make you a good trader - you still need to do the things that are required that you mention....better to have people understand how to use the tool. Watch a tick chart - it tells you what is happening now.....(I am sure this can have its dangers for some if they get too perfectionist as well) The analysis should always be done before hand - regardless of the type of trader. The other things you mentioned - working out what others are thinking, how others are positioned is the context - otherwise you are merely reacting -- regardless of the type of trader (mind you reacting and momentum can work if you cut quickly and run long enough sometimes - but it has its downsides) The change in behaviour can be seen real time.....dont tell us the traders in the video havent done their analysis - how else do they know the game.. Much as you say you have to learn to anticipate, this is different to what many might see as a need to predict.....and again many will try and predict, and predict and predict - usually with poor results. (pedantic maybe but it can make a big difference) Personally - I like charts - why because I am more of a visual person than a numbers person and so i prefer that tool.....some quants use stats, some others use pure fundamentals - some like a tape reader, their memory or instinct.....but a chart is just a tool and that is what is important to remember. Throwing away a tool can be just as bad as relying on only one tool thinking its a panacea. I used to have a better memory than I do now - call it age or interest - but I am happy to use anything that helps. If anything you are correct in the idea that people think the chart can anticipate a move - they cant, as the trader you need to.

I dont have a view on gold.......but a friend emailed this through to me on his thoughts....FWIW "something to think about re gold. At the end of every quarter large US funds (those with greater than 100mil under management) have to file at 13F form with the SEC. The funds have 45 days after the end of the quarter to file the 13F. This disclosure from each fund discloses their listed US assets. John Paulson is the world's biggest gold bull. He has over $3.5 billion in the Gold etf (GLD). It constitutes about 20% of his fund holdings. As of the 31st of Dec his holding has not dropped when compared to previous quarters. If gold sees any further weakness and his hand is forced ---- it could get very very messy. Any broad US$ strength could see this happen................"

Dude - back then having a chart that wasn't hand drawn was a luxury - IMHO they were doing much the same thing you can do with a chart - reading price (thank you DBPhoenix) Lets modernise and see how many folks sitting in trading rooms have charts up these days - they might not be looking at HSH patterns but I am sure they look. (even the fundamentalists have a glance - and usually make up some BS about value, a MACD, mean reversion and trend, or compare it to their benchmark using a pretty chart). You are correct in that the patterns are in the eye of the beholder.....its better to look for changes in behaviour - these are what forms the pattern in hindsight but they are often visible in real time if you watch for them.....and then someone sticks a funky name on them.....like a "3 little piggy reversal" you know the one, when a market is built on sand until the big bad wolf blows it down.

FX rambling.... 50% may not be a fib number but its a handy little number to use for indicating a zone/area to ponder entering a trade on a retracement in a trend - particularly in the EURUSD

thanks Dude - it was a welcome change for what I often listen to....i guess i dont visit Miami much As for something completely different and one for the visuals....plus as this is an international forum. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNNR8UX7oKk]Rammstein - Mein Land - YouTube[/ame]

Cartman blushing --- LOL- that's a visual I did not think I would imagine. :haha: thank god it is Friday

I often read some of your pearls of wisdom and think this is a great one.....so in a similar vein I dragged this out of my notes that I hope might help explain why i think there is so much value in your advice.....(I often forget this myself :doh:) "First look for setups (consolidations or breakouts or rallies into resistance) don’t look for trades. You will always find trades that look like they might work, but these in reality will simply be like a random entry – look first for the reason for a valid trade." ........

no such thing as the perfect trader. I would prefer to be profitable and a trading comp does not tell you that. If you need proof/validation of being the best trader you should either; - join a firm - get paid and get your accolades there, or - not trade - you have other issues. Bit like going into a casino - best thing to show you are the perfect gambler is to place one bet, then if you loose/lose/looose you walk away all is forgtten/forgotton/forgton if you win you walk away and have a perfect record. Two many variables, too many paramters, to many subjective BS issues. (too many ways to spell 2) Pointless.

Maybe I am being slightly pedantic here and the reason is that we agree the Greeks can help you measure your position and exposure......but if you keep insisting on how they will help you make your strategy then I would like to know how you think this is done? To me, I have never seen anyone base a strategy purely off the Greeks - the strategy has a basis elsewhere - eg; buying volatility for a volatility move up, a directional move or to trade the gamma. selling vol as part of an overall portfolio type insurance yield enhancer selling/buying options for pure directional plays The Greeks can help you rank the relative attractiveness of the options to trade, or can help assess the timing but I am still not sure of the strategy. (I am being pendantic as too often threads get sidetracked with incorrect/misleading/ misunderstood/confusing jargon IMHO)

in Oz, most houses go to auction to be sold - - open out cry - I think about 50% end up selling here, and the rest usually have a negotiated settlement of some sort......its normal. (fun, but scary) Its also an eye opener having to bid for what is usually the largest purchase you will make.....there are rules, and there are also rules you must set for yourself to not let the emotion run away with yourself. I have bid on behalf of friends before and its almost easier as you set the rules before hand, dont get to emotionally attached to the price and the frenzy and just go with whats happening. It is certainly well worth attending and bidding at auctions for the experience - maybe not to buy a house but something simply to go into it. As to keeping the post on topic - if you think selecting an honest stock broker is hard- try real estate

“Whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so sure of themselves, and wiser people are full of doubts” ― GB Shaw