SIUYA

Personally - I have not found one that the best for everything. The real issue is context.... and either a read of the papers or a glance at the longer term charts can tell you most of what you need. For a few years the AUD has been boring, and yet of late its been interesting, The EUR has its moments, but of late it been boring. Whether people call it regime change, context, market mood etc - I think this is where the key lies. Even the automated guys generally have filters of some sort to minimise periods whereby a system is known to perform badly for this reason, or they use a robust system with plenty of instruments to smooth these rough patches. so in answer to the Q - strategy is dependent on context, and nothing works all the time, and your head will hurt if you think otherwise if you seek perfection (Also dont be fooled by what looks like its easy, when the reality of implementation regards spread and true liquidity can upset what looks good, is this not the old argument about psychology v strategy???? being a large part of the battle.)

I think you have nailed one of the issues people come across - the change in return profiles over time, the issues regards diversification and what is a trend follower (the secret and the idea of 'true' trend following) Which is why there is debate and is not as simple as - i backtested this and it does not work. (you cant effectively backtest many things most day traders do does that mean none of them make money?) Some of the key attractions of trend following are that it is easily systematic (there will be issues around this), and yet you can also trend follow without being systematic; Breakout trading is just an easy way to ensure you take every trade. There are so many other variables within each system as well ranging from the issues of money management and position sizing, correlations between instruments, the universe of instruments, the maximum and minimum limits, the use of hedges, filters, long only, long or short in particular instruments, levels of discretion, what to do with the excess cash.... etc.. It can depend on if you are after something that is robust etc, and can be tailor made to the types of returns an investor is looking for and what trades off they are willing to suffer. (As for the issue regards purity - IMHO who cares, i can leave that for the the 'theorists', even if it makes money on paper, imagine the slippage when dealing in size!) Also - that it provides uncorrelated returns and hence becomes part of an overall portfolio. (Not great if you are trying to make money out of it by yourself) Here is a question to ask regards trend following.....lets say you have a system that works, it provides good returns for the style (25% a year compounded) with normal worst case scenario drawdowns of 30% (peak to trough)...... Even if you have 1mil to trade and live off you had better hope you get the returns quickly otherwise taking out costs etc and a few bad years your capital base is degraded very quickly. In other words its probably best approached from an investing point of view. Basically if you have 1mil and expect to only get the same returns after costs of doing it yourself as opposed to other professionals already doing it, then you may as well give it to them and do something else - either work or sit on the beach. The large trend followers employ a bevy of Phd guys - there is another debate....what for? better execution, on going research into new ideas - and yet their returns can be replicated??? There is the business of funds management and capacity issues, v personal trading and the basis for why an individual may want to invest in it. So many questions! As for why returns have changed.....the debate will continue....I think its a combination of factors and hence impossible to nail it down - eg; increasing liquidity from short term trades maybe means more intra range volatility. Government intervention in markets, more market correlations....

I know about the site, I know about the debate that continually occurs when trend following supposedly dies. Their site also discusses other things as well. If you know about trend following then you will also know that it is reasonably easily executed requires a portfolio and lots of money to get a reasonable return and not pie in the sky BS. The long term trend following works its just that many dont understand - or choose to ignore - the downsides to it.....and forget its about long term, will have drawdowns and various other issues - and these are pointed out in the book unlike many other type books. The Turtle system and like the one in the book is just an example, and its shown that many systems are reasonably easily built, offer much the same in terms of returns and can be likely reversed engineered. One of the points made is that you dont need to think about it, and the book is written in a very open manner whereby its entirely rational to write a book such as that - there is no great secret and thats the point. It is not one revealing a 'secret' and that is why it is a good book. And yes I have back tested similar rules, my own rules and all sorts of variations - it gives a particulalar type of returns - that are in no way similar to many who succeed or fail at day trading.....are you saying the turtle rules dont work, no longer work, or just have not worked recently? If you want a cheap education the book is good, if you want a secret revealing book - save your money and give it to the market, if you think that everyone who writes a book only does so because the thing they are writing about does not work when then i would not know what to suggest - read a public forum maybe?

a better book IMHO can be found here. I have read and worked on a lot of the other gumpf and while they make good reading I wish i had this book right at the start. Following the Trend All the tricks, tips downfalls etc are revealed and you can choose to put the hard work in to trend trade of not. For the price of the book this will provide a very cheap education.....and afterwards - you wont need to spend money on a system or a course - the book explains why this is so - you may however choose to spend money on a system that helps you build your own unique system - but thats an entirely different proposition. Key is that it requires a lot of money a portfolio approach and is not day trading.

Why dont you just transfer between your broker and your bank?

FWIW - Lying : Sam Harris

The Greeks are useful only for telling you where you are at - they are not great at telling you why you are there. In other words - they are a measure. As for strategies there are a number of strategies whereby you are trying to capture various components of the option pricings as well as the underlying movements. Also I do know various people call things different strategies - a jargon thing - but this is how I see it and have been used to calling it. Some of these strategies are also by no means stand alone strategies - some are combinations and similar, and not all thats available. The joys of options. (for ease of understanding I assume......book greeks=portfolio greeks=single instrument greeks)(Underlying=actual instrument=stock=future=index) eg; Gamma Trading - constantly rehedging small moves in the underlying to 'job' around the underlying based on changes in the delta of the book. Usually as the trader is long volatility this is done to help pay for the time decay of the options.eg; long vol Volatility trading - buying or selling options whereby the implied volatilities are cheap or expensive compared to the historical volatilies and hence the trader expects the implied volatilities to move - not as much concerned with direction. eg; long short straddles, strangles, or calendar spreads. Dividend strips - in certain places (and less so due to changes in tax laws) dividend strips whereby various tax rate payers could make the most of collecting dividend payments and yet keeping exposures with the options, or hedging the risks. eg; collars, synthetics ( longs and shorts using the options.) Corporate actions - various exposures can be obtained cheaply using options whereby payoffs for certain events such as takeovers are huge with smaller exposures. eg; ratios, collars Interest rate component - changes in interest rates can have a huge impact on various funding costs eg; calendar spreads, synthetics Dividend changes - trades taken with little directional or volatility risk can be made whereby changes in dividend amounts or dates can affect the option prices. Directional trading - straight forward (or complex) trades purely based on underlying moves Spread trading - spreading between different months or over various strikes to try and capture directional trades with less risk, or spread views with less directional risks. Market making - pure market making whereby constantly trading and keeping a hedged book and taking a small edge for each trade around a theoretical price (see put call parity for more understanding) Providing liquidity and marking markets also can combine various strategies, but you can view 'pure' market making as simply proving liquidity and taking the edge with little exposure to other risks. Portfolio hedging - either individual instruments or over a portfolio as a whole depending on what risks you want to take out or reduce will determine the options to use. eg; Index collars, OTM put purchases Portfolio exposure - trying to replicate portfolios using options and/or the underlying on combination. eg; ITM or OTM options, collars, ratios, spreads Portfolio income - trying to capture extra income using buy and writes (covered call) Convertible arb - trading between different instruments - often company issued warrants, and preference shares and the equivalent ETO options and the underlying. .......... Just a brief off the top of the head over view of different strategies - all of them would be likely to use the the greeks to tell them where they are and to help stress test their books.....a lot of these strategies dont pay off until certain events happen - some are mainly arbitrage plays, some hedging, some exposure, some directional, some income......and dont forget the greeks change as each component changes particularly the underlying.

Imagine if self destructive people exploded! That would sort out traders 'discipline problems' and make for very messy trading rooms

Depends on how dependent on speed it is - there are algo alternatives that a lot less expensive than that. The other factor to consider is also the overall combined cost of such algos and brokerage v a simple algo and retail brokerage. Always hard to say and it is simply something you have to work out based on volume and speed of trades - plus dont forget it is something that is moving rapidly and so always worth watching every quarter as well.

because its... roughly half way between the 30 something and the 61.8% roughly half way between the recent high and low its easy to calculate its just a number than shows a reasonable mean reversion pullback that is not to shallow, not to deep but just right - the goldilocks number. its magic its a completely random number its one or maybe a combination of all of the above.

So long as you got my sarcasm I was watching some woman on TV who had xxx operations for plastic surgery and booked herself into a rehab clinic, and it was telling that even though she now knows she had a problem, she realises it was her own doing etc....she still claimed that she should have been advised she should seek counselling......que lawyers.....and that the surgeons where partially to blame. Plastic surgery addict Alicia Duvall shows scars after op to remove implants | The Sun |Showbiz :doh: - Where do you draw the line I do believe the government has a role, because quite frankly humans have a tendency to not only be self destructive but also exploitative and selfish.....but that and the role of government is a whole other issue! But i guess if the govt does not do it, we will find other ways of doing it - local militias, lawyers, evolution and death....but yes its largely a cost benefit analysis and the governments seems to pander to the protect us too much from stupidity crowd.

other options - those high risk thrill seekers who sky dive, or do other 'reckless' ventures that some think are self destructive or reckless. - those who due to religious or moral differences beleive the decadent non beleivers are leading self destructive, immoral way of life. - those who participant in business venture after business venture that fail - and their friends and family are telling them to 'get a real job' - until they succeed after 20 years of trying. - those who smoke and drink because quite frankly they like it and accept the consequences, and when they do people still look at them and tell them they have something wrong with them. From the trading point of view and the original posters question - lets stick to trading. Ultimately most of us are agreeing on the one same principle - accepting responsibility for oneself - regardless of why or where our belief comes from, and if as a trader we have what appears to be a self destructive talent maybe we should remember those wise words from Ed Seykota - "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money"

Steve, there is a problem I see with your explanation - which i dont necessarily disagree with its ultimate result - which is about self responsibility for the consequences. This problem is two fold - Doesn't this assume that children cant accept responsibility and are self destructive. The nature nurture debate then kicks in a bit whereby you touch on the rationalisation (which is a good point) - most behavior is learnt, and who is not to say certain 'cultural' behaviors some may see as self destructive are considered by others as perfectly normal. You can also be seen as self destructive (and this is of course in the eyes of the beholder) and yet be totally aware of and accepting of the risks. MM mentions this - I am always wary of those who declare that those fully functional people who have behaviours that we declare as destructive fit into the category of not being adults. This reminds a little too much of the behaviour modification attempts seen in many 'we know best' societies. Basically - often its completely rational and adult to adopt in some self destructive behaviour because we choose to.

good advice MM.....however can I add for the original poster ..... MM is advising you to do your own homework. Dont confuse his advice with him telling you that you should go and seek advice and pay for it. Paying for advice and getting advice for free is no substitute for your own education and understanding.

oh I thought the manipulation was all about the USD and the evil FED, because that all you generally hear from the gold bulls. But we dont want the facts to ruin a good story. Whereas when you throw in the actual fundamentals, then it might actually give some credibility to the story.... but even then with fundamentals all being bullish, there are plenty of instruments that go down in price - why - (and looking at point 4 it puts it into perspective)....maybe the reason something looks 'oversold' is because it is overvalued...... If ever the last straw in an argument when you know you are clinging desperately at backing up a belief......use the oversold, over bought argument....cause that always adds balance to the argument! (you know its cheap/expensive because its oversold/overbought :doh:) ....................... dont worry Patucca, I am all for people buying gold, it makes sense in the right amount and at the right time - i just dont buy into the extreme gold bugs and the manipulation and conspiracy theories that so often abound with it. Just because the gold market has not crashed like this before does not mean that it is now cheap (just cheaper), it does not mean that it now offers value (just better value than higher prices), does not mean that it the crash was caused by a manipulated move. (Thats not evidence - its probably more evidence of a bubble bursting if anything) all depends on trading what you see and not what you believe. Gold is certainly at interesting levels now, especially if it consolidates around here.

from Larrys post....thanks. I thought this was interesting - given everyone keeps thinking the run up in gold is based on the USD and the continual curse of the fiat currency - and yes of course there is probably some element of truth there.....but its amazing how then people think everything is based on this when if its true that half of the actual demand comes from two places outside the USA, it makes you wonder if those who think they know what is driving the gold price really have any idea. (which is why i am not such a big believer in the grand manipulations) 3. A lack of love from the Love Trade is affecting fundamentals The Love Trade, on the other hand, is the buying of gold out of an enduring love for gold. Two emerging countries that make up almost half of gold demand—China and India—have had a long relationship with the precious metal that is intertwined with their culture, religion and economy. With half of the world's population buying gold for their friends and family, it's important to put into context what is happening in their countries.

try multicharts - similar to Tradestation. or alternatively depending on how much transferring is required maybe sierra charts

Larry - you keep saying lets discuss..... The problem is option greeks are simply like the dashboard of the car/airplane They tell you information but they dont tell you how to drive/fly, or give you a strategy. What exactly is it that you want to discuss as you keep claiming they are good for a strategy? Option tiger offers his courses and websites and it looks pretty good except they cost - if people find value there good for them - , other information is freely available on the net. There are plenty of books on options theory around - ranging from the simple to the complex. Do you want to discuss option strategies, how market makers may work, buy and write funds, calendar spreads, jelly rolls (and other stupid names), the issues around volatility and skew?

Short term thinking - the fact that humans desire instant gratification over long term gain. OR for those otherwise inclined.... Its because nobody advised me to get counseling before I engaged in my self destructive behaviour - remember - I have to blame someone else other than me.

if you are talking Australia (which is probably not what you are talking about ) which is even further east than most then you will find it is expensive. Beyond that you can trade pretty much anything from there. Internet is debate-ably reliable and fast - i never had a problem trading. You can hook up with various brokers - it might be their local arm and hence there will be different restrictions, but I never had a problem hooking up with various people over the years. (Interactive, OEC, Oanda, MFG :crap:) - you usually just fill in the w8 tax form and tick the boxes for various expertise - this might change depending on the type of accounts of course. Most brokers would be operating in their own timezones, some have various levels of help desks - i guess it depends on how electronic you want to be.

setting prices levels around either support/resistance, random levels or set levels based on round prices or some distribution around the average etc is all the same....the only difference being that some levels probably have a higher probability than others to not do too much damage to an account than others when you are wrong. Key is to see what happens around those levels and then manage the trade. What ever is used by a trader generally just adds structure to their strategy as opposed to purely discretionary punting as an alternative - weather it works or not probably should have been tested. Not sure what other thoughts you might need but to me its that simple as a concept (then difficult to implement maybe) - basically - the levels really only mean something to you - the market does not care - what you are hoping for is that the levels you pick the market also agrees on - what happens after that is the tough part.

Patucca - for me - while its always good to think about these matters I think that the article on gold selling by Paul Craig Roberts is so full of BS assumptions and rationales that its a joke to read and discredits any real work in uncovering any real manipulations that might occur. Possibly he is a plant by the manipulators in getting everyone to think a particular way - you know the double double agent manipulation controlled by the manipulators... the endless possibilities. Below is my own skeptical opinion for balance......... The whole premise does not make sense.....why would the US government/FED (lets use them collectively even though they are different) not want the USD to fall - of late there has been a competition between countries to lower their exchange rates, the US is always accusing China of being a currency manipulator and keeping their exchange rate supressed, there are constant calls for some countries to leave the Euro precisely so they can devalue their currency and fix some of their problems....so when he mentions all the problems or a falling dollar he also forgets the benefits. Then in critisizing the policy, he would prefer an economy whereby 'panic would reign' --- many would agree the too big to fail policy is fraught with danger, but the Fed then by his standards is doing a pretty good job as there has not been panic. (as yet) Lets go to the market analysis..... "Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate." - gold has been rising over the last decade - and I think you might find that the rise in other countries (Asia, South America) might have also taken away some of the value of the USD.....just a guess. I love how a person also knows who is doing the selling - really?? - take away this an the rest falls over and maybe it was a series of large holders, a large speculator, a culmination of events that transpire to cause a sell off....this then may trigger a bunch of stops etc that helps push the process --- it called a market. Given there appears to be a criticism about naked shorts in the futures markets (I assume this is where he is talking about) - then I would say most of us are guilty of it - I must confess i have traded futures with no intention of delivery - and shame on me - I had longs as well....we had best be critical of all such speculation.....you know I actually insure my house with no intention of having it burn to the ground either It good to explain how the market works -"If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price." - shock horror - reverse this for longs - its called supply and demand....along with the massive assumption that the shorts had no intention of delivering, but the longs did want delivery - and yet they stopped them selves out, and that most long contracts are not delivered either. then there is the knowledge he has that a real investor would spread out sales over time - right....how would he know this, and would not previous large central bank sales at the bottom of the market ten years ago seem to indicate they might not be that good at this. Over the years, you get to see plenty of large all out orders by institutions, or traders etc. Thats what makes the market - some people actively making decisions - they may or may not coincide with his method of trading. ...and just to top it off - the selling which drove down the price, and the claim that it was naked short selling followed by this "who can afford to loose this much money" - wtf? if it was a naked short seller - they made money. if it was a long holder from many years ago that dumped their holdings - they probably made money if it was a long speculator dumping for a loss - then they were probably responsible for buying at the high prices previously.... me thinks the good doctor is confused and thinks that just because gold once touched 1800 its always worth it, and that any sale below the high is a loss.....I wish i could claim that on all my investments.... Also not sure what gold price he is looking at, but is gold really suppressed at $1400 yet? he does have a point - "In other words, by trying to protect the dollar from its quantitative easing policy, the Fed might be hastening the dollar’s demise." --- the old thing of spending more than you make usually hurts at some stage. As for the Fed rigging the bond market - ahem - thats their job. and for GS and the hedge funds orchestrating 'moves' and using the PR machines - well I guess that we should ban advertising, marketing etc on opinions - all those astrologers will be out of business....and does any one remember when GS had calls that oil would go to $150 before it collapsed to $30, then reversing their calls at the bottom - maybe they nee to get some money back....there is a lot of research that shows that the opinions of the banks and hedge funds are just as often wrong than right - remeber some hedge funds are bulls on gold, some of the hedge fund calls are completely wrong (the ten best ideas every year often show this, as do their returns) --- selective choices always help push an argument to the believers.... ................. Just trying to add balance, either that or I am a non paid (:doh:) govt shill. the Germany gold is an interesting one..... but ultimately for me its trade what you see - not what you think

Most likely - if advertising affects many people then probably. Which is why its important to know what you want to do, test it and understand why you are doing it, review it to see if there are outside influences etc causing you do 'not trade the plan' you have set. For most traders its probably no different to those who walk into a supermarket with a list of grocerys and come out with 100 other products. Or a more apt analogy might be for those who walk into a casino for a shrimp cocktail and are taken by the alluring lights, flashing and sounds of winning only to end up gambling.

Patucca - do you think the size of the naked short sellers in equities is such that they have a large enough difference? Granted that in certain circumstances it can, but this then usually becomes an economic decision by the sellers to wear the costs of failed trades (as they could not deliver the shares because they did not borrow they are usually fined - without making naked short selling completely illegal, then this is usually the greatest incentive to prevent it - while most brokers wont let people naked short sell (I thought most brokers were fined for allowing clients to do so in the USA?)) Personally I just find it funny that people get so up in arms about short sellers, especially naked short sellers when I think that this is a small element (maybe I am wrong) of the overall markets volumes. There seems less concern with the naked (think emperors new clothes) longs that fleece more money from investors. What about the manipulation when you consider that share lenders often pull back or recall their shares that they have lent out to force a short squeeze - I think this happens more than worrying about the short sellers. Additionally the lack of ability for legitimate shorts often causes more market distortions in the derivatives or even over the value of those shares. As for it being a ponzi scheme....what about the use of derivatives to short an instrument - this then becomes a ponzi scheme as well? What about futures - the vast majority of those both buying and selling have no intention of delivery? (there are so many papers written on short selling and naked short selling its hardly worth bringing up many unless they are really worth reading. Any readers can find plenty of them) Interested in yours and others thoughts. ................. As for dollars - this is an interesting one - I have always been of the opinion that there is not much difference with gold (and many other instruments) - the only limiting factor is that one is more scarce than the other - but in terms of people applying value to it - there is not much difference - this for me goes to the heart of anything of value. Another thought I have always had regards dollars and the idea of devaluing them by printing more.....what is the difference between dollars as hard paper currency via the printing press - and dollars as IOUs? Taking a broad view of it I think there has always been a ponzi scheme of sorts any time there is lending of anything that is not physically held or paid for in full. I dont argue with it but try and understand it and go with it.

Thanks Blue - the old style scams were good ones - it sounds like when they fill fruit nd veges or frozen chickens with water to increase their weight. speak of the devil.... Enron No Lesson to Traders as EU Probes Oil-Price Manipulation - Bloomberg ....again a lot has to do with reported prices - the obvious link to Libor and its similarities, but i would still like to see some manipulation that affects retail traders.