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Everything posted by MadMarketScientist
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What Market Should You Start With?
MadMarketScientist replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Beginners Forum
Personally I have found that though the eurusd may be a bit smoother than gbpusd it doesn't stretch as far when it moves. Since most trade with technicals I find that the extra movement and range on the gbpusd helps. Best bet is to do a manual walkthrough backrest and compare results. -
A question I'm asked a lot, and I'm sure others is what market should a trader start with. After you learn whatever system and are ready to dip your toes in the trading water you have to start somewhere. Realizing that it is sometimes system/strategy dependent, I have the following suggestions. Futures: Russell e-Mini Futures Forex: GBPUSD Stocks: QQQQ All things being equal I think these would give someone the best chance of making it through the learning curves. You have typically good range and volatility, easy to execute, low execution costs and they tend to behave fairly well across a multitude of trading approaches. Not to say that there are not quite a few choices in each category that could work but given most people have to start somewhere, to me these will beat quite a few others as a starting point. If anyone else has their picks, feel free to contribute as well.
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I think people tend to get way too absolute with this. Just because the majority of traders fail in their pursuit of the full time dream doesn't mean it's not possible. At the same time, no way can you train a group of people and have everyone end up successful. No matter how good the system or training there will be some in that group who completely butcher it. Nor does that outcome mean you cannot be trained. I think of marketing. I once helped a friend with some direct mail and there was maybe 1,000 pieces sent out. After a few weeks she told me it was a failure. Which surprised me. I asked how many responses to the coupon she got and she said 'only' 34. Which is a 3.4% response rate which is actually fairly great. Of those 34, many turned into repeat clients and overall led to an roi that was about 10x the cost. However, she could only focus on the failure of the other 966 who did not redeem. I think people say trading cannot be learned or there's no way to be full time since the numbers are daunting -- it is possible, but let's be realistic and admit that the majority will not -- no matter how good the marketing like the example above or how good the training is. We're just fighting human nature and behaviors in expecting absolutes/100% outcomes. One final thought, back in the day when I was doing training, I would always survey people who attended the presentation, without fail, over 90% were not profitable despite having spent on average $2,500 or higher on training, strategy, courses, etc... HOWEVER, there was almost always 5% - 10% who were successful. Meaning it's very possible, just not easy.
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JohnnySDG I do agree. In a former life when I was doing some training everyone would come into the training with a preconceived notion that they should be an S&P e--mini trader, or they were an options spread trader, or they only traded stocks. Usually maybe what they read or saw out there and felt they should be that to. Virtually without exception I'd tell them that in 90 days you'll be trading something completely different than you are now, and it won't even be something you are even thinking as a possibility today. For the exact reason that there is a real "fit" issue. I might personally love trading a certain market like Crude or the Dax, and the next guy might totally hate the pace, and the hours and the style and wouldn't even consider it. So many criteria but a good start is to decide what your risk capital is. That will exclude/include a number of markets right away. Determine what hours of the day or night you can trade. This will rule out many markets, and rule some in. Decide if you want to have to "watch" your trades or set and forget. Decide if you are going to day or swing trade. And of course once you know your time of day you have, how much time you can give it. Finally, decide on a circuit breaker that if you equity gets down to a certain level you'll stop and reassess. If you go through just these few questions you will end up with a very small list of markets to trade -- but it will be highly personal to you.
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suriNotes, Very funny story. Not funny at the time of course. How many of us over the years have written an email, maybe one not for all to see and sent it to the wrong person? I remember years ago doing something I lived to regret and assumed that "retrieval" button on an email works -- uh, no it doesn't. Once it's gone, it's gone. Then the apologies start
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A quick reply on something that has worked for me. I have found 3 times the Average True Range (ATR) over a 14 period to be a great starting point for a fixed target. Since some of this conversation is about getting out too soon I've found having that fixed target in mind to be very important for me and keeping it less subjective on exit. When I switch to forex, I tend to bump that to 4x of the ATR, and if I trade a market that is a bit more range bound 2.5x. From there, if I also want to trail, I will exit half of my position at that fixed target -- and then I can let the second half run on a trailer -- to me that helps psychologically since you get to book a profit, and you make sure your trailer does no worse than a small profit as you attempt to trail. Anyway, using a flexible target like the above to me is a lot better than trying to force a fixed target when market volatility changes daily.
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Would agree on this. I don't think you will see your particular sop hunted. Instead there could be traders guessing where stops could be hiding but your particular order is not in their sights.
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Full Time Traders: Are You Happy with Your Profession?
MadMarketScientist replied to HighStakes's topic in General Trading
Justaguy and 1pipatatime that is great stuff and should be truly inspirational to others realizing there's light at the end of the tunnel. It just takes hard work and patience not to mention a fairly ruthless determination. But you can make it and live the dream. -
The key advice below is to not try and scalp as a beginner. Cannot agree more. It is a great way to get your brokers mortgage paid but not yours. Between slippage, mistakes, commission and fatigue it rarely works out for the beginner. And if you want to know more why you will never be Eric Clapton the book Outliers from Malcolm Gladwell is a great one and explains it.
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I owe some updates as well. I will get those out this week. Of late I have been trading forex eurjpy and forex futures bp and ec along with crude and Dax futures.
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Any of us who have traded a long time have probably on occasion let your emotions get in the way or our lack of self-control enter into our trading day and done something really, really dumb. However, looking back on it, it might be really entertaining or just fun to laugh about now that some time has past. What would your story/stories be? I have so many I wouldn't know where to start. From the simplest such as my inventions of new profane words to some of the worst revenge trades ever. One instance I remember was a few years back I got on a medication for something I was dealing with. I didn't realize it when it was prescribed but one of the side effects is some people lose their self-control. Some people have gambled crazily on the drug, or done things they in the right mind never would have done. It only effects a few percent of people this way so kinda rare. Well as you can now imagine I was one of those exceptions. I took the drug, and of course it didn't work at all for my symptoms. However, I woke up at something like 3am, and in a bit of a stupor went to my computer and started to trade the Dax futures. Mind you, at this time I never traded the Dax. But that night I traded the Dax. And traded the Dax. And traded the Dax. In fact, I couldn't stop. I knew what I was doing, I even called a trading partner of mine and told him I can't stop trading. He was like, dude, just step away, turn off the computer and mellow out. On that phone call I said "you're right, but I have to take this next trade" - which I did. I continued to trade right through the close and lost about $10K that day. I literally lost all ability to turn off the desire to take trades. Looking back it's pretty funny but scary that a slight change in your brain chemistry can derail all logical thought. Anyway, might be a great drug if you're looking to build up the nerve for something but probably not so great if you trade! Another favorite of mine, isn't something I did but meeting a guy who worked in private security, who had nothing but time usually decided to be a trader. Yet he had a bit of a temper let's say. When things went particularly bad one day he took out his Taser Gun and used it on his monitor. I can safely say I have never tasered or shot my computer. Not that the thought hasn't crossed my mind. How about you - there's got to be some funny stories?
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Putting Together a Beginner Trading Group
MadMarketScientist replied to martinguitar's topic in Beginners Forum
There seems to be a lot of interest for this. My top suggestion would be for someone to come forward and offer to lead/organize it. All you would need to do is say something like on "Thursday, July 15th at 9:30am EST let's all meet in the Trader's Lab Chat Room (which is accessed by hitting CHAT in the main navigation menu above) -- Just give some notice, and have people meet up at that time/place and start the introductions and discussion. From there you can all decide on a direction and perhaps to meet weekly or more regular at a same place/same time, etc... If there's interest or someone wants to take the lead just let me and the thread know. Thanks! -
Full Time Traders: Are You Happy with Your Profession?
MadMarketScientist replied to HighStakes's topic in General Trading
HighStakes Congratulations on your decision (and success today) -- I think you got a lot of really amazing advice and feedback on this thread since you asked your question. Just be sure to stay involved in the conversation on the forum. It will keep you interacting and it just might inspire that one big idea that is a breakthrough for your trading. Not to mention it's a good place to come when you need to reconcile any challenging days. Best of success to you! -
Another CL fan. Agreed it has many virtues. NG also trades similar but slippage is more of a factor - if you ever consider it you really need to trade NG with stop limits or you'll be in for some shock on your executions. One other note on CL I've noticed some behavioral changes in the market in the recent months - perhaps somewhat attributed to the BP oil spill debacle -- this article somewhat confirmed some of these suspicions: BP Loses Trading-Floor Swagger in Energy Markets - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
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This has to be one of the more entertaining threads. What I think is missing is nobody is sharing their drink of choice. It's like when someone posts here and boasts about their trade success but then doesn't give any details on their system "If" I was to drink while trading I think I would keep it simple -- an Absolut Citron & Tonic with a lime. Smooth and long lasting.
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I'm with Brownsfan on this one -- I do think frequency of trade plays a part. I would climb up the walls if I was trading only one market and it traded 1x to 2x per day. I simply don't have the patience for that. You need to know yourself. With that said, I'm a big fan of following only 1 or 2 markets if you can get the frequency part down. I think the markets where you can find some of the better activity are Crude Oil that you mention (though since the BP oil issue there has been less movement and volatility - and there are some theories why including BP traders leaving the company who were amongst the most active CL traders but that's another story), and I also think the Russell e-Mini (TF) and Nasdaq e-Mini (NQ) can be good choices depending upon your margin available. While I feel forex can provide some great trading opportunities I don't typically see it trade very quickly except in spots, and therefore you might want to consider multiple markets if you're focusing just on forex but the challenge if daytrading is finding the ones where the bid/ask is narrow enough -- and realize you'll be putting in more time I think than some of the futures above. You could trade the CL from 8:50am EST to 10:30am EST (except Wednesday with the Crude report) and never need any additional time for example.
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Join us on Tuesday, July 13th at 5:30pm EST (New York Time)/2:30pm PST -- it's free and you need to just register in advance here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017 Most traders know how to trade, but their emotions cloud their judgment and sabotage their efforts in their intense drama of trading. In this workshop you will learn how to hurdle the 8 roadblocks that keep you from developing the mindset necessary to move from mediocrity to peak performance. You will discover how regulating your emotional nature frees your mind from the fear, self doubt, greed, and impulsivity that bar you from higher levels of trading performance. From this new position you will see how to develop a calm assertive mindset that allows you to trade from a disciplined, impartial, patient, and courageous state of mind – the Trader’s State of Mind. About Rande Howell: Rande Howell, MEd, LPC conducts emotional regulation, mindfulness, and peak performance training for traders. He maintains a clinically licensed practice in Charlotte, NC where he teaches the skills and tools for peak performance training and personal development globally. In his past he has also successfully taught emotional regulation skills in prison, community mental health, and corporate venues. He will be a Featured Speaker at the Las Vegas Futures and Forex Traders Expo (Money Show) in September. Reserve your spot here - it's free with our compliments: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017
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Join us on Tuesday, July 13th at 5:30pm EST (New York Time)/2:30pm PST -- it's free and you need to just register in advance here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017 Most traders know how to trade, but their emotions cloud their judgment and sabotage their efforts in their intense drama of trading. In this workshop you will learn how to hurdle the 8 roadblocks that keep you from developing the mindset necessary to move from mediocrity to peak performance. You will discover how regulating your emotional nature frees your mind from the fear, self doubt, greed, and impulsivity that bar you from higher levels of trading performance. From this new position you will see how to develop a calm assertive mindset that allows you to trade from a disciplined, impartial, patient, and courageous state of mind – the Trader’s State of Mind. About Rande Howell: Rande Howell, MEd, LPC conducts emotional regulation, mindfulness, and peak performance training for traders. He maintains a clinically licensed practice in Charlotte, NC where he teaches the skills and tools for peak performance training and personal development globally. In his past he has also successfully taught emotional regulation skills in prison, community mental health, and corporate venues. He will be a Featured Speaker at the Las Vegas Futures and Forex Traders Expo (Money Show) in September. Reserve your spot here - it's free with our compliments: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017
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Join us on Tuesday, July 13th at 5:30pm EST (New York Time)/2:30pm PST -- it's free and you need to just register in advance here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017 Most traders know how to trade, but their emotions cloud their judgment and sabotage their efforts in their intense drama of trading. In this workshop you will learn how to hurdle the 8 roadblocks that keep you from developing the mindset necessary to move from mediocrity to peak performance. You will discover how regulating your emotional nature frees your mind from the fear, self doubt, greed, and impulsivity that bar you from higher levels of trading performance. From this new position you will see how to develop a calm assertive mindset that allows you to trade from a disciplined, impartial, patient, and courageous state of mind – the Trader’s State of Mind. About Rande Howell: Rande Howell, MEd, LPC conducts emotional regulation, mindfulness, and peak performance training for traders. He maintains a clinically licensed practice in Charlotte, NC where he teaches the skills and tools for peak performance training and personal development globally. In his past he has also successfully taught emotional regulation skills in prison, community mental health, and corporate venues. He will be a Featured Speaker at the Las Vegas Futures and Forex Traders Expo (Money Show) in September. Reserve your spot here - it's free with our compliments: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/997748017
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One Big Screen or Multiple Smaller Screens?
MadMarketScientist replied to daveyjones's topic in Tools of the Trade
Nice. I like your view as well. I think it's important to realize and remind yourself there's life beyond the monitor! -
Not sure if you are referring to the posers chart just above but if so, it is definitely Tradestation and looks like a 1 point range bar. I believe they stated they like a 1 point range bar for daytrading or a 2 point range bar especially when trading is active. Someone also mentioned above that their bars might change a bit if they close and re-open their charts with range bars -- while I haven't observed that, if it's happening I don't think it really should dramatically change the results over time. Maybe on a trade by trade basis but I'd assume it would balance out since the difference shouldn't be too dramatic. Another interesting bar type are Renko Bars. Think of them as Range Bars but with no overlap allowed -- like bricks stacked on top or below of each other. But, I guess that's a whole other conversation....
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Gandalf, Was trying to think about your question below -- as to where to go to learn more about the "Art of Trading" -- I would definitely agree that a huge portion of it is screen time and experience. I really do feel that 10% of what I do daily is not mechanical, but I have in my mind I think made it fairly rules based over the years of experience. I really feel that it is the difference maker for me between losing/scratching and being profitable. To this day I still have yet to meet a consistently profitable trader who is 100% mechanical. I keep waiting but have yet to meet one. I can tell you a few bits of advice that could help. The first is to never back-test automatically. Back testing with a computer doing the work is a waste of time if you want to learn trading. Yes, it can give you a push button verdict of the potential for success/failure but more than likely you optimized the inputs anyway and that gets you nowhere. I can't tell you how often I would do just a little optimization, the results would look amazing in May, then come June it would be horrendous. You should do all the backtesting manually - trade by trade. One by one. Painful? Sometimes but it's amazing how much you learn - even better if you force yourself to click bar by bar and make the decisions like it was real-time. For me this was a breakthrough doing this. Next, the main things I do manually are this. I adjust entries around key numbers, usuall the round number or the levels that tend to find some support/resistance as long as those are not big adjustments. For example, if I have an entry on the Russell e-mini at 599.90 I'm going to adjust it to 600.10 or 600.20. Or 585.40 I'll push the buy to 585.60. Next, I'll look at the chart, and clear cut recent swing high or low that is within a few ticks of my entry, that is close I will make sure I hurdle that BEFORE entering. The same at times goes for my stops and my targets -- I do respect the chart. I try to not over-adjust, and won't obsess over every swing or every key level but almost on every trade I am making at least one adjustment to the entry or the stop as a result of these levels. From there it is learning time of day -- there are good times and really crappy times to trade all markets. I try to focus on what has been the most active and reliable and leave the rest of the day to everyone else. Well, getting a little long-winded here but hopefully that helps a bit.