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MadMarketScientist
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Everything posted by MadMarketScientist
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Snow Dog - thanks for all the posts and analysis. Like you, I do spend some time focusing on the GBPUSD. Of late, I have been trading quite a bit in the futures equivalent -- using the BP futures. It works out to be $6.25 per pip, I get very quick executions and typically just pay commissions with only minimal slip. I think I come out ahead when I compare it with paying fixed spreads on spot currency. But, who knows. I was busy today on the BP but ultimately ended up about break-even after costs. I did comeback though from an early long you can see that I entered near the high (oops) -- but managed to catch at least some of the decline. You can see I trade off of Renko charts as well so a bit different than time/tick. MMS
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What Happens Next? Doom? Gloom? Boom?
MadMarketScientist replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Market News & Analysis
Great comments so far. Very interesting and thoughtful. Beats the crap that stuffs my inbox My thinking is this -- and it's probably as valuable as a spin on the roulette wheel in Vegas and as likely to hit. I think we're going to have the self-fulfilling prophecy of a big swoon sometime in September/October and definitely something leading up to the mid-term elections. Put the fear of god into the markets especially since seems like everyone will have itchy trigger finger to sell should something trip up the market. However, I do feel that the market will respond strongly to that reaction and we will be higher by the end of the year, especially once the uncertainties of the elections are out of the way. I'm thankful though everyday that when I trade the most I'm trying to figure out is the next 5 minutes to one hour because I really don't know how anyone can be really accurate trying to play out a market over weeks, months, years. Every year I threaten myself to remove all of my funds that are being held long-term in mutual funds and trade the entire 100% short-term. Still haven't pulled the trigger but I feel so much more control trading the short-term than the long-term. You guys are smarter than me so I tend not to trust my "big picture" analysis. MMS -
There's a lot of direction we could go in discussing news and trading. Here are a few things that have served me well. If you daytrade the markets will move beyond your target or stop with important news. If you go to the Economic Calendar here on TL at: Economic Calendar any of the High rated reports will likely move the market it is influencing (usually the geo location of that report) And, I always say it's a coin toss with the report. Meaning you have about 50/50 odds it will go for or against you. And, one thing that sometimes makes news trading more difficult is when it goes your way you will almost always get executed exactly at your limit order - rare to get positive slippage. And, if you get stopped out, it is actually somewhat common to get slippage -- and not executed at your stop. So with a 50/50 chance of success, and the fact that you will rarely get positive slippage but can get negative it's not a great coin toss. What I do is if I'm in a position ahead of the news I tend to hold through the news and except my fate. However, if I'm not in a trade and I get a set-up 5 minutes or closer to the report I ignore it - I won't take the trade. And, then I'll take the next signal, or try and get in synch with the one I filtered out no sooner than 2 minutes after news up to 5 minutes after news. I find this to be far safer and less like gambling -- which usually isn't good for your trading account. What I will say though is news can be great - it really is what powers a market up and down so I'm not saying you should avoid it like the plague - just have a very specific and consistent way of handling it. Also, the monthly jobs report -- I actually go flat ahead of that -- example, a month ago I was long on an index and was traveling so didn't get flat. It went against me and I had huge slippage. This time, on Friday I was able to go flat. What happened? It gapped up my way - I would have profited quite significantly. However, I know I did the right thing even though it backfired on me this time - because next time the odds say the reverse will happen. And, I'm not smart enough to guess the numbers these reports will release -- nor do I imagine can anyone. Hope that helps. MMS
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Did you mention the software/platform your using?
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INYO - What is the Best BROKER + PLATFORM for ETFs Trading
MadMarketScientist replied to atuc's topic in Stocks
One advantage for you if you go the IB route and use Ninja is you have an easy connection between them for data to charting and trade execution. You can also program custom indicators in Ninja or have someone do it for you - there's enough people out there who now how to program for Ninja (and for that matter Metatrader or Easy Language for Tradestation, etc...) Plus you can have all of the benefits for a low to no cost. -
I know there are a lot of really smart traders on TL. Whenever I read the forums posts and replies I'm usually pretty amazed. Really with few exceptions. I'm not sure about you but seems like the marketing angle this fall to sell products/services is to take the "end is near" approach. My inbox is filled with services saying we are going to crash. I realize this type of stuff is what sells -- nothing like some good 'ol fashioned fear. We see it everyday in the news. However, I'm curious what the consensus is here on TL. Are you expecting the markets to go up or down between now and 12/31/10? If up or down -- any thought on what type of move we are looking at? Is it the beginning of the end or will the market defy the skeptics and improve? And, what are your reasons either technical or fundamental? I'm going to formulate my thoughts shortly and post. I'm still debating between my desire for it to be positive and optimistic with the reality of the real world out there....and not trying to be jaded by the doom and gloom marketing I'm seeing either.......
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A Question for Active Day Traders
MadMarketScientist replied to youngsequan's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
Good point on futures. One thing I liked as well is doing a tax return. When I was a very active stock day trader years back I had to report every trade -- I'm sure these days brokers make that easier -- back then it was a real pain. Still, you have to make sure you account for all the rules, whereas with futures (and forex) I've always found reporting gains (or heaven forbid losses on the tax return far easier. Not saying that's a reason of course to pick one over the other - but it's a nice benefit. -
What Do We All Think About the New Forex Rules?
MadMarketScientist replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Forex
All interesting/good points above. I would agree that much of this comes from those who lose money, then play the blame game. And have complained endlessly to regulators who then feel they need to step in to protect the innocent. Of course those innocent were really just super greedy and didn't want to face the reality of their stupidity. When I lose I have learned that ultimately the buck stops here. Sure, if a broker pulls some shenanigans, or doesn't execute right that's a different story. And, I'm all for the regulators to require these brokers to be registered and put up capital because the reality is when that wasn't the case there were truly brokers simply stealing funds. As to whether we need 100:1 or 200:1, etc... I would say no if we weren't talking about parking funds somewhere else like one of the replies above. Strictly from a trading standpoint I don't see how someone can really utilize 100:1 and make money. If you do, let's say put $1,000 into forex and use the full 100:1 to buy a standard and lose a small amount like 25 pips you are down 25% in one trade. Totally unsustainable and only luck will make this work. I am already getting emails from brokers like FXDD who make it super easy anyway to get around these rules - like using FXDD Malta and I'm sure all the other majors like FXCM have their own alternatives. This is what happens though when there's no personal accountability - we get lots of regulations. -
I've always been a proponent of using a target that is dynamic to the market -- when I try to force the market to bend around my will of a preset target like "1.50 points" it seems to be ineffective after a while. When I base targets on ATR I do much better. I'm also changing my thoughts on trailing more - lately I've been doing more exiting half the position at a preset target and trailing the second half. While the second half tends to be more erratic on the equity curve it is enabling me to recover quite a bit quicker when I hit some prior losses because it seems like a big runner almost always follows some chop that I get caught in.
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I believe what's being referred to is just making sure you have a Google account -with that you have access to everything including Google Docs, Groups, Gmail, Calendar, etc... pretty cool stuff.
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Now that the CFTC has finally weighed in on the proposal to reduce the leverage allowed in forex I'm curious what you all think? Here is a summary from them: http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/forexfinalrule_qa.pdf These go into effect on October 18, 2010 so about 6 week or so. My interpretation is the leverage will be 50:1 on "major pairs" and 20:1 on exotics. It's unclear what is what - but I would assume the usual's like EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY are major - though you have to wonder what the GBPJPY will be considered, etc... That part is unclear plus it appears they are keeping open the ability to move pairs between these two leverages. It does appear that anyone who introduces forex accounts now must be registered though they do not have to be guaranteed by the broker if they meet capital requirements. That doesn't impact the retail trader but gives an indication of the regulations being required. There has been some debate I've seen elsewhere that this somehow removes the ability for US traders to have overseas accounts, which is what many did to avoid the hedging and FIFO rules when those came into effect a year ago. However, I don't see where that is clearly spelled out one way or the other. Obviously there was a fear they could rule and make it 10:1 so this is probably a good development from the worst possible. Thoughts?
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Daedalus, Maybe I missed it but any thought of what you go for with the profit target? Are you trying something fixed or more dynamic? I would probably think about using an ATR and depending upon the timeframe I'm using maybe somewhere like 3x to 5x that ATR. Also, a trailing stop as well in case you catch a flyer off the open. Maybe a 3 bar stop strategy - trailing the stop for example on each new high (on a long) count back three bars looking for lower lows and trailing below that. MMS
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Index Futures Risk Management
MadMarketScientist replied to bathrobe's topic in Risk & Money Management
I've removed a few posts since there was unnecessary name calling -- keep it on topic please. Thanks! MMS -
We'll have our tech team take a look - seems like working for some, but not in this case. I'm sure they can figure it out. Thanks. MMS
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
MadMarketScientist replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
With Tradestation you'd have Radarscreen (I think that's what it is called) available to you which definitely could monitor those 100 stocks to your criteria and let you know immediately which ones qualify. Maybe you can also look at Think or Swim which I think would have the capability to do the same as a scanner and has a good reputation. Did you ever consider straight calls or puts for your stock swing trades? -
I for one never realized there were so many trader psychologists out there. Personally I wouldn't take advice from someone who hasn't walked the walk. No matter what their training. I think you could argue you can read a Mark Douglas book or two, then read them again and again and probably gain quite a bit more than most docs could teach you. However, I personally feel that psychology and the mental game plays a huge role in trading. I've worked with and trained a lot of people in my time and this always has been my biggest struggle - dealing with each persons psyche and overwhelming need for some reason to blow up the trade plan. That need to be right all the time is tough to battle.
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INYO - What is the Best BROKER + PLATFORM for ETFs Trading
MadMarketScientist replied to atuc's topic in Stocks
I'm with Kiwi on IB. You could also use their data and hook it directly into NinjaTrader which would give you some really powerful order entry/order management plus charting at minimal to no cost for that. That assumes you don't need full streaming charts as Kiwi mentioned. If you do, I would consider Tradestation or another that has a rabid fanbase would be Think or Swim especially for equities/options. -
A Question for Active Day Traders
MadMarketScientist replied to youngsequan's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
I'll give you a few of my favorite movers - but like mentioned above a lot has to do with what your strategy is to whether these would be for you. However, with that said these have fit my criteria now or in the recent past: GOOG AAPL WYNN UWM SH QQQQ AMZN IWL ADSK NETL NFLX IWC BIDU PNRA VPRT -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
MadMarketScientist replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Yader, first of all a big welcome to TL. Thanks for joining the trading conversation. I'll echo the prior comments that you can get Tradestation for no charge - they have a promo now I believe where it's free through the end of the year - though you would need to fund and trade an account there. However, it is quite powerful and probably would satisfy almost anything you'd want. There are many other options of course -- if you were a forex trader you could focus on a broker with the Metatrader platform which is free of charge. Or, think about Ninjatrader which can do quite a bit on charting and order management and can be very close to free depending upon the data provider and also where you trade. Most of all, do not let free or low cost be your decider on trading platform. I've been in this business working with and trading along individual traders and one of my biggest pet peeves and source of failure I've seen is people trying to cut corners on things like data and charting, then without hesitation putting hundreds or thousands of dollars at risk with the click of the mouse. With a solid platform it will pay for itself many times over. -
I think Brownsfan has done a great job categorizing your three potential market choices. And, I think it's important to recognize his point that they are really going to trade differently. It's one thing to be deciding between the Nasdaq e-Mini and the Dow e-Mini - you know they will move similar, trade the same times and have the same general feel. What I can say is I think CL is a better daytrader than the 6E. You'll have virtually every session, let's say from 9am - 11am where you can get off 3 to 5 trades consistently. Not that you should or want to trade that frequently (nothing wrong with one and done) but you'll have that opportunity. I stay away from trading it the morning of the Crude Oil report and wait until 2 minutes after that report is released for some of my best trading of any market. The 6E I think you approach more from a swing trading basis - or if that's not your thing, think of it as a market you might want to try and capture bigger intraday swings (40 - 60 pips, etc...) -- and you will not have that multiple trade opportunity everyday -- unless of course you could be up at all hours for the Euro and US session. ES not my cup of tea but there are certainly others who would disagree.
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This was all resolved. Let me know if still getting any message from Google - if so it shouldn't be for long since our tech team was able to resolve. Thanks.
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James was on here some time back when the transaction took place -- I think back in May. Yes he did sell the site and his primary reason was starting a family and other full-time commitments he had. He was going to be unable to devote any time or resources to the site and we stepped in at that time. He's doing well last I heard. Having owned internet businesses since 1996 I can vouch for the fact that they are quite demanding so I certainly understood his desire at the time to find more balance. MMS
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Let me know if still an issue. Had been told it was resolved. Thanks.
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It's only on the video site and we have the tech team working on it now. Thanks. MMS
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You guys are all great. I appreciate the voices of reason and positivity and somehow feel we will survive the tragic loss of UB.