MadMarketScientist

Fascinating analysis. Of course today did nothing to give us any read -- I'm not sure it could have been more "unchanged" then where we ended up on the session

This is great -- thanks much for sharing the analysis. Will be really interesting to see how it plays out. MMS

These are great. Thanks much for sharing. When someone asks what I do I'll send along the links. MMS

You bet! Well done. Once we're done with the 10 days we'll contact you to mail your card. Thanks. MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4:http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded for starting this new thread! Who will win next?

Brownsfan, Good idea on the Crude thread. You think I should start something in here? Futures Trading Laboratory - Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community Or as it's own main forum (like Market Profile, etc...) -- Should it be Crude Oil only or CL and NG? etc.... MMS

Ah, Crude Oil trading now that's something after my own heart. For me it's the most dependable market. Though lately I've mixed in some Natural Gas as there's days it has been moving actually better -- key for me is to always enter it on buy or sell stop limits and allow 1 tick slippage. Since it has a tendency to slip several ticks if you don't control it..... Well, back to the oil fields..... MMS

Phil, Thanks so much for the comprehensive reply. I'm going to check out that IB feature -- I like the look of it. The overview on OmniTrader is interesting as well -- I actually remember probably 10+ years ago using it in one of the early gyrations. That was back when I didn't quite get that backtesting has some resemblance of future results. Lesson learned a long time ago I still get their mail and it's always positioned like get in now, the next version is going to be amazing. Good marketing. Obviously has value though you detail some of the issues as well. Ninja charting I actually don't use -- I just use their interface to manage from the entry to the exit and also handle the automation when I want to use it from Tradestation strategy into the IB broker which is kinda cool. MMS

Would be interesting at end of day for you to take a look and recap how it reacted around those key levels if you can. MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Who will win next?

Wasn't aware of this IB booktrader thing - - what is that exactly? Currently I use Ninjatrader hooked into my IB to manage all trades. Similar? What were your thoughts on Omnitrader -- I always get their direct mail but never ran into anyone using it. MMS

What's your feeling on holding through earnings? When I was more actively swing trading stocks I used to have a rule to exit the day before the news because I felt it's a coin flip at that point. Of course, there were many, many times I regretted it when it spiked my way and kept going -- I can't say I ever was 100% sure the right thing to do in that situation. MMS

Ramora, Thanks for sharing. I am familiar with the Livescribe -- keeping looking for a reason to "justify" getting one --- perhaps you just gave me one! I've heard good things. Thanks for the post. MMS

Jason: Thanks for the post and participation here on TL. If you can manage like you do to get a 5:1 win/loss ratio that's fantastic and I'm with you there - who cares if the win/loss is lower on a percentage basis. I do think in the 40% range some people don't realize it will be common to take 5 losses in a row - the math just shows it - so they have to prepare for more consecutive losers in preparation for that big win that redeems all that came before. Psychologically some people are not able to handle that. I can say though I have also not been able to manage to a 5:1 ratio or better in my trading -- maybe it's because I'm also not willing to have my winning percentage usually drop much below 60% but more power to you if you are able! MMS

I'm not certain with IB and the full market depth as I personally don't use that. However, yes, one account for me has been universal -in that one account I've traded at one time or another - options, stocks, german futures, US futures, forex spot, forex futures. As for the phone support I'll be honest and say I haven't had a reason to call them in many, many years. I just go online and find what I need -- I would assume the support is so-so since it's not really set-up to hold your hand type broker. Just not sure why there would be much need to talk to them anyway. MMS

Thanks for sharing these - you're brave to put it out there ahead of time in real-time. Good for you!

I can tell you what I do. I have found I'm awful at predicting when a market is going to get hot, and when it's going to cool. How do you know right? However, I will say markets do get streaky. So, if I'm trading a market like the Russell, S&P, Dow e-minis, etc... what I always do is have some circuit breakers. For me that is time based. I typically will only trade maximum the first 2 or 3 hours of the trading session. Opening bell at 9:30am EST - 12:30pm EST maximum. In some cases in my testing only until 11:30am EST. This limits the number of trades I take. In addition, once I have 2 wins and I'm positive I stop on the day - no matter what. If I'm not positive after 2 wins I'll keep going but I will stop taking new trades as soon as my time limit is hit. This really does help me catch the markets when they are hot, and exit many times when they start to consolidate, or stay in long enough to survive an initial chop and many times I pull positive literally with that last trade before my cut-off. This has served me well over the years. MMS

Fascinating thread - kinda of a duel discussion on the specific housing sector stocks which in itself is full of intrigue, and then how best to leap into trading successfully (or minimize the pain) What I would say on the housing discussion is if I was thinking about fundamental trading -- and I'll preface this saying I'm a 100% technical trader since I just don't think I'm smart enough to really analyze the thousands of different datapoints in an industry. But, with that said if a housing stock company had a portfolio that included homes in the more solid areas of the country I would have an interest. I can speak from some recent experience. Having sold a home recently in California, having purchased one in Texas. Also the same goes on a rental property in California. If a homebuilder has a focus on the 250K - 500K part of the market in places, like Texas it is still quite strong. I know people getting multiple offers if you believe that - however when it advances above that price range it gets VERY slow. Yes, you are competing against foreclosures, etc... even in the lower range but those can at times be a real pain and people who price right, in a good market are moving. If I saw a builder who was representing this range and was not heavily invested in the areas that were part of the mania (California, Florida, Nevada, etc...) I think prospects are going to improve. Like an above poster said the system is still in for its shocks but to me the bottom is already in in the stronger markets and actually probably 20% - 25% off those lows. That being said, I wouldn't do anything personally unless the technicals that I would trust/follow led me to buy but even someone like me who is 100% technical likes to know the reasons behind the move as well. Or it gets boring. MMS

It's interesting because in a former life I had the opportunity to work with a lot of traders - and examine their results. It amazed me how often people actually traded profitably if you were able to remove commissions and/or spread costs. To me this shows how often people do NOT realize just how much commissions/spreads and also slippage factor into their results. It's why so many do backtesting in a perfect world scenario - usually assuming perfect fills like no slip on stop orders, and 100% fills on limit orders. And also forget to take out commissions/spreads. Literally that can be the whole difference between success/failure but those costs are real. MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4:http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded for starting this new thread! Who will win next?

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS

Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded for starting this new thread! Who will win Day #3?

I have found the best volatility from 9:30am EST - 12:30pm EST. The opening couple of minutes can be a bit volatile so you may need to consider that but after that initial flurry this set of 3 hours I have found best for daytrading. Afternoon is more hit and miss. MMS