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MadMarketScientist

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Everything posted by MadMarketScientist

  1. MadMarketScientist
    I'll throw in a couple of suggestions when we're talking long term investing and a systematic approach: The Little Book that Beats the Market - Joel Greenblatt It's a fascinating read and gives you a system on how to buy value stocks at discount prices. It doesn't work every year but over a long haul the track record is excellent -- like anything people get discouraged when it lags for a year or two but the longer term if people lose the short-term greed is impressive. One I bought but haven't had time to read yet The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing - 2010 - Jason Kelly I heard it's good but not firsthand yet. MMS
  2. MadMarketScientist
    Here's my opinion on that. I'm going to take the approach of less is more in options trading. This is what I have found. I know there are math wizards out there who can take it way beyond my intellect who may differ. I just have found over the years, and talking to thousands of traders, and of that bunch a decent amount have tried options that the ones who seem to do the best are really just directional option traders -- and they pay attention to delta primarily. I know there are dozens if not more ways to slice and dice the math on options and I'm sure there are people much smarter than me -- but I come from the standpoint of just keeping it as simple as possible as long as it's profitable. Directional and delta for me is the key -- of course maybe add time decay so knowing what that is going to be as well to be sure you have the time for the stock to move your way. Simple? Yes. It probably would offend those who like to make everything sound like you need a PHD and to be the smartest in the room but I bet more profitable than them. MMS
  3. MadMarketScientist
    Thanks for the info -- I actually like the one tidbit in there that talks about rather than being 100% precise with it for example exactly on Nov. 1st that instead look for an exit or entry signal using whatever strategy you normally use to trade the markets. I like that a bit better than just blindly exiting/entering on those prescribed dates. MMS
  4. MadMarketScientist
    I'm sure it's been mentioned but if you're a small account trader the Spot FX is going to be favorable since you can get started easily with $1K for example and that's not the case for the futures markets. That might be a deciding factor for some as well.
  5. MadMarketScientist
    I'll throw in a few comments.... I would favor starting just directional -- straight calls and puts when you feel you have a direction in mind for the underlying stock that is well established. Where you feel the odds are good based on your system of that move carrying forward. In particular a move you expect can take place in 1 day to 2 weeks. From there you can buy the call or put, allowing 2+ weeks until expiration if possible, though you can always roll to the next month if you're still holding and things are going well. I would try to buy something that is slightly in the money if possible -- a delta if you can get it of 0.50 or greater. And, I'd let the underlying stock drive everything -- I wouldn't be charting the options contract or trying to take trade signals off an options technicals. The underlying stock should drive everything. Finally, I wouldn't take the trade unless you knew exactly what your profit target and protective stop was of the underlying and use that to determine when you exit your option. MMS
  6. MadMarketScientist
    Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS
  7. MadMarketScientist
    Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS
  8. MadMarketScientist
    I'm with the above opinions - at least in the fact that maybe rather than feeling the need to jump from 4800 to $30K why not use some personal credit and bump it to $2500. See if you can continue to remain profitable for a couple months -- then why not look within your circle. Maybe there is friends and/or family who could help you get that up to $10K. See again how you do with more money on the line. That pressure sometimes changes things -sometimes not. I think you do need to do something to push beyond $800. Because if you use smart leverage it will take some time to build that up. And, rather then suggest you start playing with 50:1 leverage and drawdown half the account overnight and turn this into gambling, I think you're going to need to find a way to start pushing up the equity balance. Just don't see the need to jump it as far as you want -- try a couple steps in between - if it continues to go well the money will come to you. Trust me. MMS
  9. MadMarketScientist
    Mark, Welcome to TL. You've come to a great place if you're looking to learn. Read and post. Do that and you'll be golden. MMS
  10. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome to TL Gasdon! My top advice -- read a lot here. Absorb it. Ask questions when something comes up. The community here is very helpful and crazy knowledgeable. I thought I knew a lot but some of these people here blow me away. MMS
  11. MadMarketScientist
    Thanks for reinvigorating this thread. There needs to be a lot more discussion of options on TL. It's such a popular area and there's so many potential advantages to options in particular for the smaller trader who might have an issue to control 100 shares of stocks like Apple and Google, etc... Also, nice report that's available on TL here: IB Options Report
  12. MadMarketScientist
    I've been trading since 1995 actively. I took my first trade back in about 1986. I can tell you it is far less stressful for me today than it was in the beginning. However, I will also tell you it has always been stressful for me -- I took trades today and I felt some stress. My first short didn't work - stressful. My buy worked fine but I had entered it a little further up due to a rule I question, and it hit what would have been my first target if I didn't adjust then struggled to reach my real target. You think I was stressed and second guessing? Yep. And, that's after 15+ years of doing this. I always think that I'm not completely coded to be a trader who can throw caution to the wind so it's always a struggle to some degree. My least stressful trading? By far my swing trading. Because I don't need to watch it. I let it do what it needs to do and the simple fact of not having to look at the chart 1,000 times per trade helps immensely. If you feel a lot of stress I'd swing trade. MMS
  13. MadMarketScientist
    Fairly aggressive speech for Mr. Ben especially regards to China's policies. Markets definitely reacted at least earlier. I do think it's amusing how many people are now covering the quantitative easing -- when you get the talking heads and politicians that love the spotlight weighing in on Fed policy like we've never seen before you know times have changed. I think people love the branding of this one "QE2" -- if it was called quantitative easing, etc... nobody talks about it. But, give it a cut acronym and it's all over the talking head news programs. Branding!
  14. MadMarketScientist
    Some great advice here so I would say yes to all of the above. A few other thoughts came to my mind. One, as mentioned before it sounds like this trader is all "directional" to the buy side. That's tough unless you are averse/against shorting -- if you are, you need something that tells you to stay on the sidelines during those downswing periods. There's going to be plenty of those and you sound like you're just forcing the action and the momentum simply isn't there. Think of all the genius traders that were floating around in 1998 - 2000 - when the markets did nothing but go up and even if you had a down day the next day your stock would go up $30 further reinforcing trader genius disease that was going around. And then the crash hit and it never came back. We all know what happened next. I think it's tough with a long only bias to succeed. In addition, what I've found in my system development which includes tens of thousands of trade observations is it's amazing how often a system/approach you've developed feels just so good and like the holy grail. Then all of a sudden something changes and it completely collapses. You can't even imagine how often I have thought I have developed a breakthrough for myself and it seems incredible for a sustained period then simply breaks down miserably and goes in the trash heap. You really have to develop your strategy to take into account many different market conditions or it's doomed to fail in time. MMS
  15. MadMarketScientist
    When I say 'consumer' I mean "ma and pa trader" so the little guy, individual trader vs. trading professionals meaning brokers, industry folk, hedge fundies, etc.... Anyway, thanks for the tip -- have heard some good things about that one though have never attended - maybe the next one!
  16. MadMarketScientist
    Is that show for "consumers" or more for working professionals?
  17. MadMarketScientist
    Thanks for the Vegas food tips - I like some places a little more off the beaten path. I've eaten at some great places on the strip in the main hotels but it's sometimes nice to discover something a bit more hidden. Though I'll take my Craftsteak any day -- not that I could actually afford it every day! MMS
  18. MadMarketScientist
    But wow.... http://www.redbull.co.uk/cs/Satellite/en_UK/Video/danny-macaskill-way-back-home-riding-clip-021242926492302 Like I said, nothing at all to do with trading but a cool demonstration of what's possible - if you need a distraction from a bad trade it's a video worth watching.
  19. MadMarketScientist
    I'm going to need to shut down this thread. It really doesn't make a lot of sense to me and it's not really providing any value. There seems to be something personal and a vendetta going here and I really cannot try to get in the middle and mediate it. All I know is there is talk of slander, legalities and accusations of fraud running each way. Sorry, this is not the platform to try and hash this out. My suggestion is if you have a dispute with them or vice versa you find another platform to work it out or fight it out. This isn't the place for it. It's not helping anyone. Thanks for the understanding. MMS
  20. MadMarketScientist
    Yep, that one worked out nice for me - picked up just shy of 90 pips. Ironically that was a mistake -- my target was supposed to be about 45 pips but I screwed up -- and got way lucky as it hit the bigger target despite my mis-key. But, the key was holding on and it worked well..... MMS
  21. MadMarketScientist
    Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Day 7: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/buyer-every-seller-8840.html gregn Buyer for Every Seller? E-Mini Futures Trading Laboratory Day 8 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/patterns-s-p500-index-8827.html surinotes Patterns in S&P500 Index Technical Analysis Day 9 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html steve46 An Institutional Look at the S&p Futures E-Mini Traders Laboratory Day 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/newbie-understanding-wyckoffs-7m-analysis-8845.html mike2 Newbie Understanding Wyckoff's 7M Analysis The Wyckoff Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! That wraps it up. We'll be in contact with the winners shortly to get your gift cards mailed out! Thanks all for participating. We read a lot of good posts! MMS
  22. MadMarketScientist
    Winner Day #1: TL Username = bojangle New thread he started: Price Discovery http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/price-discovery-8806.html Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Winner Day #2 TL Username = peterjerome PNF Interactive Data eSignal Wyckoff Forum http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/pnf-interactive-data-esignal-8820.html Day 3: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/really-8823.html TL User = JEH Trading & The Markets Day 4: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/higher-lows-lower-highs-8164-11.html#post106475 TL User = SnowDog High Lows Lower Highs Forex Trading Laboratory Day 5: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/concept-beginner-how-start-pls-give-8815.html#post106661 wits7yle Concept of a Beginner How to Start Beginners Forum Day 6: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/stock-screening-parameters-8832.html#post106607 JonathanJohnson Stock Screening Parameters? Beginners Forum Congratulations - $25 Restaurant.com Gift Card to be awarded! Who will win next?
  23. MadMarketScientist
    Many of you might not know but under the "Toolbox" above in the menu at the top is the "Derivatives Report" and if you click that or just go here: IB Options Brief You will get to a really nice options report put together by Interactive Brokers. Most implied volatility and least plus an analysis each day of a subset of stocks. Plus several other lists you can reach that are clickable -- nice if you are considering options trading. Well worth a look - just bookmark or click into it daily. MMS
  24. MadMarketScientist
    It's always interesting when the latest filing comes out about Berkshire Hathaway and we all get this once a quarter look at what the greatest stock investor Warren Buffett is up to. Some interesting takeaways -- he sold off or reduced positions in: Home Depot NRG Energy CarMax Republic Services Comcast Nike Ingersoll Rand Fiserv He added a big position in: Bank of New York Mellon and added more shares in Wells Fargo and Johnson and Johnson. They do always say when they divest some holdings it's not necessarily a measure of the prospects for that company so all the sales above aren't necessarily that important - some are small reductions but others are fairly sizable to complete. Overall they still remain heavily invested in stocks. MMS
  25. MadMarketScientist
    I personally went short on that on the break of 1.6000 but it hasn't followed through yet -- still holding short but it's on the wrong side of 1.6000 at the moment! MMS
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