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MadMarketScientist

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Everything posted by MadMarketScientist

  1. MadMarketScientist
    Hello and a big Welcome to Traders Lab. Thanks for coming around and be sure you actively participate in the conversation -- there's no better way to maximize your time here. Maybe a good idea would be to write about the differences between the first time when you blew out your forex account - quite common - and this time around where so far you're seeing some success. MMS
  2. MadMarketScientist
    Salma, Welcome to Traders Lab! You've come to a great place to discuss trading and you'd be surprised how hanging here with some of the super sharp traders will raise your skills quickly. Participate in the conversation is my top advice to you. Welcome. MMS
  3. MadMarketScientist
    Looks like my broker was wrong on the night of the vote -- what a surprise -- DUBLIN (AP) — Debt-struck Ireland braced for the painful details Tuesday of the toughest budget in its history, a condition for receiving a massive international bailout. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan's 2011 budget is being unveiled and voted on Tuesday night in parliament as protesters gather in exceptional snow and ice outside. At any rate, it's coming just tonight not last....
  4. MadMarketScientist
    I got a call from a broker advising me to consider sitting out trading later -- I usually take a Dax trade or two overnight. The reason is the Ireland vote on their bailout - the feeling is it has the potential to run the Dax and other European markets up or down a 100 points in a split second. Of course hate to miss that opportunity if it was to break my way but granted it becomes a coin toss trade with no ability to stop out many times so that's probably gambling and not trading. However fun it can be Anyway, any other opinions on this -- will you be trading or would you? MMS
  5. MadMarketScientist
    Good point on stress vs. distress. I had a short going today on Crude Oil futures -- was targeting 88.78. It hit 88.79 then bounced back up to about 88.88 and didn't look good though did ultimately make it to 88.78. For as long as I've been trading you think I would have just been 100% stress free but I felt the stress in the trade. However, I was not distressed -- I certainly wasn't panicking maybe just a little bitter for a bit
  6. MadMarketScientist
    Mark, I'll have what you're drinking MMS
  7. MadMarketScientist
    Thanks for doing that and giving us the update! MMS
  8. MadMarketScientist
    Have to agree that it's probably hard to have a in stone ratio -- market conditions vary too much. But, I can see why coming up with a stricter reward/risk ratio can actually make you a much more selective trader. And, in my experience traders who actually work on trading less and not more are more profitable on average. MMS
  9. MadMarketScientist
    Seems like the Dow continues to be weak link -- S&P500 seems to be stronger but the Dow maybe ends up being leading? I'm sure a lot will come down to eco reports this week -- we've got payroll data as well with some of the more positive prognosis in a while so could be setting ourselves up for a sizable move depending upon outcome. Thanks for posting the chart - visually tells the story...
  10. MadMarketScientist
    Markets softer this morning -- not bad considering you've got the Ireland bailout, fears that it could get worse in Europe before it gets better and tensions mounting all weekend between North and South Korea. When you put that all together it's a surprise to some extent we're only looking down about 90 points at least at the time I write this on the DOW. Seems like this market really does want t pop to the upside again but it's a little tough with these momentum killers. Seasonally though you'd think it will regain the momentum sometime between now and the end of the year. Regardless I've seen enough resiliency to convince myself that 2011 is going to be a positive year overall for the market and we'll be measurably higher by this time next year regardless of what happens the next few days or weeks. Take it to the bank (uh, I guess that would be Goldman?) MMS
  11. MadMarketScientist
    I don't think there is any question that what we are seeing now will be repeated in different formats. To assume we'll never see a real estate mania again, or a stock market bull like the late 90's, etc... is naive. It will happen again -- all the human instincts and greed of course will come into play. It may be dressed differently but it will be back - if it isn't already in a different form. It's probably why if someone asked me who was young where they should go work I'd probably tell them somehow someway get a job at Goldman or Morgan -- you'll be set. MMS
  12. MadMarketScientist
    AKM, Thanks for taking the time to update us. MMS
  13. MadMarketScientist
    Have to agree on Metatrader for when you just need straight ahead forex only, and are fine with time intervals only (no tick charts) MMS
  14. MadMarketScientist
    I have that one in my Netflix queue for when it's released to DVD....heard good things though that it is frustrating to watch knowing the reality of things.
  15. MadMarketScientist
    I think one thing anyone should address beyond the numbers is what they can personally handle. Back in the days when I would do some training of others, etc... I would find that you could show them hard numbers and facts and they'd say "sure no problem, I can handle that" but then in reality it would tear them up -- whether it was someone who couldn't handle the large number of losses waiting for a home run, or someone else who maybe couldn't deal with many small wins, but then has all that work periodically wiped out in a trade or day. The stats are great -- but ultimately it does come down to what you can emotionally handle. For example, for myself I know I cannot have a winning percentage below 50% and I really need about 60%+ to be satisfied but I know that means more than likely I'm not going to have 5:1 ratios..... MMS
  16. MadMarketScientist
    Nice work! Thanks for posting.
  17. MadMarketScientist
    To the great Traders Laboratory community we wish you a brilliant Thanksgiving holiday. Use it to maybe get away from the markets for just a while and refresh and recharge. Not to mention stuff our faces silly and overload on football games we probably shouldn't care as much about. We're thankful for all of you and your daily participation here at TL and look forward to many more posts from all of you! But first, it's turkey time! MMS
  18. MadMarketScientist
    Question -- so what would someone be looking at let's say monthly to have Ninjatrader + data? Let's assume without the monthly exchange fees because obviously those are basically the same for everyone regardless and it depends on what someone picks (ICE, CME, CBOT, etc...) MMS
  19. MadMarketScientist
    Had a nice one today as well on EURJPY and EURUSD. Still trying to get one on the GBPUSD had it to short at xx39 it hit xx40 earlier then bounced so I guess I should be thankful but surprised it didn't follow through like the other 2.
  20. MadMarketScientist
    Overextending ourselves? We as traders would NEVER do such a thing. Ok, maybe once................
  21. MadMarketScientist
    Your trade plan is definitely developing - good work! I would suggest that you use a more dynamic approach to the risk on the stock. I'm not a huge fan of saying "I'm going to risk a 7% move on the stock" because I think market conditions vary wildly -- there are times that 7% is way too much, and others it could be way too little. In particular on stocks as well -- some stocks are highly volatile others for them to move 7% would take global war. If you get my point. Instead, try to use something like Average True Range and use some multiple of that to start to help you develop a more dynamic approach to the stop. From there, I'd say your fixed profit target before any trailing should be around 1:1 - whatever you're risking for a first portion of the trade -- that should be your fixed target -- from there then on the balance, if you're trailing that is, you could use a trailing strategy - whether it's a trailing moving average (close above/below) or some kind of bar pattern like a trailing 3 bar stop, etc... you would then use that to exit balance looking for the bigger move. MMS
  22. MadMarketScientist
    Agreed, that would make it more interesting and actually truer to the intent of trading with some timing element beyond just a fixed date. Hard to argue with the theory though.
  23. MadMarketScientist
    Always really cool to see a thread started a few years ago regain new life -- shows you the interest/staying power of this type of approach. Thanks for sharing. As for the most recent comment I still haven't talked to many moving out of MT4 to 5 but would be curious to hear pros/cons to that effect. MMS
  24. MadMarketScientist
    If the article would have been "Is Buy and Hold Dead" the argument probably could be supported. It's not called the Lost Decade for nothing (actually more than a decade by now -- how soon until we return to Nasdaq 5000 Anyway, I'd say it's more like Is Day Trading Hard? Heck yes. But dead? Not a chance. The real sweet spot these day may actually be swing trading over a 1-5 day period. MMS
  25. MadMarketScientist
    I'll throw my opinion in. I think you should always have a fixed target on part of the trade. Exit 50% and trail the balance or some split. The reason is trailing is very subjective and when you trail you will have a lot of trades turn against you and that profit feeling you felt will disappear. Even if in the long run it makes more, psychologically that is tough. Next, I agree -- try to figure out a break-even level if nothing else first. I usually do this -- my profit target that is fixed, becomes my break-even trigger for the balance I'm trailing. For example, if I go long on something at $50 and exit at $55 my profit target, then the balance I'm holding the stop goes to break-even at $50 worst case -- and then I'll kick in whatever technical trailing strategy I'm using -- if it was to say the stop should be below $50 I would not lower it below. That's break-even worst case once out at fixed target. Also, in years of trading for whatever reason I have found that I never really get any type of great edge trailing - at least if I'm talking short term day trading or short term swing trading. Yes, on occasion there are some amazing trades -- but it's interesting when I compare my bottom line results the trailing is never much better, and sometimes it's worse overall -- so for all that extra work and sometimes stress I'm not sure it's worth it. Maybe longer term timeframe it's different. MMS
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