MadMarketScientist

Silver has been the best trade for last 7 months, the following table makes the point... Total return since August 27, 2010 Global Asset 140.4% Silver 75.1% Corn 39.0% Crude Oil 38.2% Russell 2000 Index (Broad Stock Market) 36.3% CRB Commodities Index 35.8% Coal 35.1% Soybeans 31.8% Nasdaq 30.1% Copper 27.2% S&P 500 (Large-Cap Stocks) 25.2% Dow Jones Average (Large-Cap Stocks) 21.1% Gold 18.3% Financial Sector SPDR Fund (Big Banks) 5.6% Producer Price Index 2.3% Consumer Price Index -2.2% Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund -2.6% 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Total Return -10.6% U.S. Dollar Index In hindsight, in such a strong uptrend, do you think its better to simply buy & hold instead of actively trading it? MMS

If he doesn't stop the dollar is going into a freefall ... what are the foreign creditors going to do? What are the American people going to do if super-inflation hits? (inflation is already happening ...) I don't see any good scenarios?

so we all know the Fed's "quantitative easing" is coming to an end June 30 ... how are you going to trade it? i think the following is going to happen: - dollar rises - yen\euro drop - commodities drop - interest rates rise ... - then QE3 will start again to lower the rate and the exact opposite will happen MMS

has anyone tried the web-based forex trading simulator at Investopedia? looks pretty interesting for a beginner to get going without the 5-page signup process of regular fx brokers! http://fxtrader.investopedia.com

I agree ... stop losses submitted will get picked off by the big boys. I would just keep them in a spreadsheet and update your positions every day after market close. I personally use tradestops.com, not free but well worth it

If you are a medium-term investor, be careful about actually submitting trailing stops to your broker ... market makers will drive prices down and pick off stops, its happened to me many times. Instead just track them yourself in a spreadsheet or find an online service to do it for you. And update it every day after market closes.

There are simply some tremendous posts here that all traders should read regardless of skill level. I can't bring much more to the table than what has already been said so convincingly. A few little tidbits that came to my mind: *When you do have "that" day where you break all your rules and end up digging yourself a huge hole - wiping out days/weeks of profits you need to penalize yourself. You need to come up with something such as you won't allow yourself to trade for the next 5 days. Or something you hate doing - like go run 6 miles, eat your vegetables whatever - something you find painful. What I find is just the fear of the penalty many times will correct the impulse to break the rule. *Have circuit breakers. Have a drop dead time of day you can trade, a drop dead position size, number of trades, etc... Make it as simple as possible and never veer from that -- no matter how hard -- force yourself to walk away - literally unplug the system if you have to -- beat the impulse - in a few minutes you'll feel fine. MMS

I know there are definitely some volume deals out there for retail traders --and that's what I'm referring too since that's within the reach of 98% of the people that would be hear. As I have mentioned I trade with IB and I know while I don't get the lowest rate available it's low enough given the quality executions and system reliability. Price matters - as do a few other things.

$1.18 with all fees RT? Seems well below a retail broker charge.

I'd probably say for me it's the late Friday trade or trades that don't work out - and then you have the whole weekend that has to go by until you get to redeem yourself. And that's just wrong - you shouldn't want the weekend to be over right? That's why my approach to Friday's is different -- if I am doing ok but short of my goals I'll call it early or risk running into one of those dreaded negative Friday's. Full knowing I can't make it back until Monday - for me that works - lower expectations and usually more peaceful weekends. MMS

I'm with you on the tall glasses of water before a meal. I'm not great about doing it every meal but I know if I'm about to have a "crappy" meal this will prevent me from going crazy. I also fight to be about 80% full and not push it - I subscribe to the theory that it takes your mind time to catch up -- and I find if I can put the fork down in about 10 minutes I'll feel 100% full. It's like trading, always got to trick yourself because usually "we" stand in our own way! MMS

I have a question for the ES traders out there. Years ago, many years ago I traded the ES - back in the day when the order would get routed to some dude on the floor who would sometimes accidentally (to his advantage) forget to execute the order or stuff it in his pocket until a very untimely fill. Flash forward many years and with the ES it's always bugged me the 0.25 ticks -- to me it leaves it wide open with the huge volumes on the bid/ask to have the market hit your limit on a target - and never fill. I had that problem a lot and gave up on the ES and switched to the TF/NQ/YM since that problem went away. Of course the huge volumes on the ES is appealing but this lack of execution unless it goes THROUGH your limit causes a lot of doubt and frustration when you are trading and on paper the market hits your target but you never get the execution. Wondering how people handle that and if it still is very regular that it occurs? MMS

There are people far wiser than me when it comes to determining what looks like institutional investments. Obviously some of the basics you're saying indicate some buying/accumulation with strong closes on volume. I'm more of a straight technical trader since I have never really seen how to get an edge trying to determine what you are. For me my two buy points here would be the break of $8.50 on an aggressive and $9 on a more conservative - and not looking for a huge runner just breaks above $10. MMS

I've always been a believer in having a hot list of stocks - my basket that I'm going to trade and only focus on those. I'll occasionally update the list or drop some stocks that are no longer responding to my strategies. It happens but some stocks stay on the list for years (Apple, Google, etc...) others come and go more often. The way I build mine? As simple as it comes. I look at the hot lists -- such as top dollar gainers and losers each day. Top percentage gainers and losers. I usually like volumes over 1 MM shares but have been known to waive that rule if it's close or obviously active. Stocks that appear then on these lists consistently tend to be for me anyway the best to trade. I know there's a lot more complex and I'm sure much more highly intellectual ways to do it but you end up with a great list of volatile movers doing it as simple as this - just observe it for a few days, or a week and you'll almost always end with a great list. MMS

I looked at it and not seeing anything that looks different or jumps out at me. Maybe post a screenshot image so we can see what you're seeing. Thanks. MMS

The only time I'm ever profitable is when I use a trading system/strategy that is price based. One that only enters in the direction of my trade (the proverbial not trying to catch the falling knife.) One that goes for a fixed target. Has limits such as no trades beyond a certain time of day or certain times per weeks. That is my use of time. The more I try to throw at my strategies the worse they get. When I take on and try to improve it by filtering out some recent losers - the worse it gets. The more I try to "make" it work on some days that are simply crappy - the worse it gets. I'd take simplicity over complexity any day. MMS

Gotta say I have never run across anyone who approaches let's say the ES or TF with a long-term buy and hold approach. I agree with the above - there's other ways to accomplish this without all the trading costs that would be involved (not to mention the potential crazy leverage you might need to take) -- ETF's, etc.. .seem to be a more grounded approach. I'd even argue options on ETF's I think before I looked at holding an emini future as a long term investment.....short term trading and hedging - another story. MMS

Agreed - I appreciated the webinar was not packed with hype and was actually very grounded in reality - and some entertaining humor. Because in trading there's enough to cry about - gotta laugh sometimes. MMS

I think he is serious about being successful but this path to success is certainly not uncommon and I'd argue there is a lot more commitment here then I usually see. What it does outline is how hard it is to take the logical "pre-market" assumptions and do it under fire. I feel like I have lots of experience and I still have those struggles at times. Today is an example where I broke my rule and traded beyond my normal allowable window. Do I know better? Sure. Have I tested enough to know that the odds go down after a certain time? Yes. Have I broken this before only to regret it? Yes. But, it's not easy to overcome the heat of the moment sometimes. I think everyone's path is different - most never make it to the end but usually it's a long journey. MMS

Cory - if you want to do a little calculating in your spare time that would be great!!! MMS

Now there I'm with you when we're discussing straight strategy. I find when I trade that way I get super hot for a while but then hit a few losers in a row and suddenly all that work gets wiped out... MMS

There's probably a distinction that should be made about trading for a living. There are countless multi-millionaires and even billionaires who feast in the markets at hedge funds, banks, brokers, etc... they are clearly trading for a Kings Living. The distinction is can an above average individual successfully trade for a living over any length of time without the obvious advantages of a Wall St professional? I still think the answer is yes but it does take an extraordinary commitment level since an individual trader does not have the advantages of a traditional professional. MMS

I will add just some very simple basics - but simple basics tend to be what works best for me. I never do well trying to trade 100% mechanical. If I shoot for 90% rules based and 10% discretion I do far better. I always focus on price based rules/techniques first and do best when either trying to enter off of extremes - such as when a market sells off I look for price confirmations to try and trade and profit from the bounce. Whenever I do that I always build in a reversal rule - because clearly sometimes that bounce is short-lived. I consider that my insurance trade to ideally offset the bounce that never carries through. I always require confirmation to enter - for example I'll never buy on a dip in price or short as price goes up -- I always identify that I want to buy - then I require price confirmation -meaning price has to go further in that direction to confirm before I will buy. Finally another always for me are identifying key/round numbers in the market I'm trading - I will always take "mechanical" set-ups and push them slightly around any of these levels that I have found these markets respect. I also consider that small insurance and an excellent price filter. MMS

While I find a lot of these posts cryptic and maybe they could be more informative (how about a chart?) I still think that anyone who has the nerve to even post their trades has some guts/confidence. Most hide and criticize and I understand to a point -- but still, putting it out there is putting it out there for the world to see. Especially in an area where people probably exaggerate their ability and performance to no end. MMS

I like that idea of pulling out the profits. I think where some traders go wrong is thinking in terms of a salary and expecting a fixed dollar amount every xx week/weeks like when they are on payroll. In all my years of trading my returns are never smooth -- some weeks/months the market is just so generous, other times it's incredibly stingy. I'd drive myself crazy if I had a "salary" expectation that was consistent/smooth. Even when I look at my long-term non-traded assets like funds and stocks if I look at the monthly returns it is literally all over the map. So, skimming out the profits makes sense but just don't expect that to ever be a consistent number. Assuming it's positive to begin with! MMS