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MadMarketScientist

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Everything posted by MadMarketScientist

  1. MadMarketScientist
    There are some web services that will gather this data for you and send you the info. http://www.insider-monitor.com/ http://www.insider-transactions.com/web/Home.asp As far as trading on this information, I am sure this is part of hedge fund\trading firm's strategies ... As far as indicators, things I would look at are: - there is a strong inverse relationship between the size of the firm and the usefulness of insider activity. Smaller companies provide more market outperforming information given they are less efficiently priced - how close to an earnings call (before, after?) - if these transactions are part of a a pre-defined schedule - insiders have a better understanding of the economics of their business and top executives (CEO, CFO) have the most accurate record - large shareholders provide the least predictive value but shouldn’t be ignored in my opinion - purchases contain more information than sales but multiple insider sales with a high short position can reveal potential company negatives - consensus activity increases the predictive information of the trades - the size of the transaction is proportionally important - analyze open market transactions and ignore private transactions - it seems logical Insider activity within certain industries such as biotechnology may provide more directional information but again just speculation. the thesis is management understands the science and future possibilities of new drug breakthroughs or ability to pass future FDA hurdles MMS
  2. MadMarketScientist
    I think my original statement was a little misleading, I meant to say 'users new to trading' vs. 'new users' ... people just starting to learn how to trade are afraid of asking a 'dumb' question or just don't have the depth of knowledge yet. But yes I agree with you, more advanced traders love the meat on the TL forums and these are the best threads. MMS
  3. MadMarketScientist
    All done on purpose ... just trying to promote and resurrect interesting discussions from the past that people were interested in. A common 'complaint' is that it is hard to find good discussions because by the nature of forums, the most recent posted threads bubble to the top and everything else falls off and is hard to find. But to make it less confusing, I'll separate these older threads in the newsletter into its own 'Past Discussions' heading. thanks! MMS
  4. MadMarketScientist
    I looked it up ... 55k and 35k respectively ... plus lots of readers. New users are a bit intimidated to post because of quality of the highly technical discussions. any suggestions to encourage more posting? MMS
  5. MadMarketScientist
    Oh yes these relationships were setup a while ago ... still trying to figure it out myself?! :-) We are working on a new Articles section and we will be inviting many more people to write articles. I guess we already have one with Nial! Yes we are aware of this but thanks for letting us know MMS
  6. MadMarketScientist
    The stress about pulling the trigger comes from not knowing the outcome and the consequences. Essentially you are going in blind ... I would be scared too! If you had a system with calculated expectations and risk exposure (stop losses, scenarios outlined, etc) then I believe it is much easier to pull the trigger ... calculated risk vs. 'gambling'. Bill Dunn once said trading was a matter of survival. Living to trade another day. Risking a max of 1% of your trading capital ensures you live to trade another day. Traders who shoot for the moon on 25%, 50%, 100% of their trading capital get shot down by the market makers and others who saw them coming. Apprentice floor trades have to make 30 trades a day using support and resistence and still breakeven at the end of the year (they have to make a small profit to cover costs). then they graduate. MMS
  7. MadMarketScientist
    my wife and i do yoga once every week or so. its amazing how poses and stretches can really relieve the stress build-up in the neck and shoulders from sitting in front of a computer all day. but the best part is the little nap we take at the end of a session! MMS
  8. MadMarketScientist
    Sorry I don't understand the question? MMS
  9. MadMarketScientist
    Most good systems can have 10 losers in a row, add in slippage etc you can easily see your self down 12% (using 1% per trade), or 25% assuming you are using 2% per trade. If you use 3%-5% then you could get drawdowns of between 30 and 50%. A 10 or 20% drawdown does not require that much more effort to get back to breakeven but a 40%-50% drawdowns require a very high rate of return to get back to breakeven: A 10% drawdown requires a 12% return to get back to breakeven. A 20% drawdown requires 25%. A 25% drawdown requires 33%. A 33% drawdown requires 50%. A 50% drawdown requires 100%. Its unwise to risk more than 2% unless you have a system with small drawdowns (high win rate, giving few losers in a row etc). MMS
  10. MadMarketScientist
    100% agree ... the Euro is doomed ... the Germans are fed up and are not going to continue paying for the Greeks and all the other bankrupt countries. Best thing to do is to kick the Greeks out and let them default and start over. MMS
  11. MadMarketScientist
    The make money three ways: 1. advertising 2. premium subscriptions 3. hiring solutions. #3 is the most interesting part of the their business, essentially they are becoming head-hunting firm and taking on the likes of monster, etc. with that said, they are NOT worth the 1200x earnings! SHORT SHORT MMS
  12. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome and thanks!! MMS
  13. MadMarketScientist
    so true! MMS
  14. MadMarketScientist
    It's not the "bad news" from Europe that has been pushing the euro lower ... From the May 4 top near $1.4950, the EUR/USD (the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively-traded forex pair) has fallen as low as $1.4050 on May 16. In other words, the dollar has gained 9 full cents on the euro in less than two weeks. That's a huge move, and people want explanations. And what the media offers boils down to "risk aversion," in light of "the bad news from Greece." And that sounds good -- until you check the timeline. The latest wave of trouble in Europe started on May 3, when Portugal asked for a bailout. If you think that event is what pushed forex traders towards "risk aversion" -- think again. The euro happily gained against the U.S. dollar the following day, May 4, pushing the exchange rate to that high near $1.50. And if you think the trouble in Greece pushed the EUR/USD lower -- again, please reconsider. Greece made a splash in the news on May 9, when its credit rating was downgraded. But by then the EUR/USD had already fallen some 700 pips, to the mid $1.42 range. So, as good and logical as all the mainstream stories sound about "risk aversion" and "bad news from Europe," the timing of events doesn't fit. What then gave the dollar the strength -- and at a time when almost everyone expected it to only fall further? Believe it or not (and it's easy to believe it, because, as this example shows, there's no better explanation) the news doesn't set broad trends in forex. Collective emotions of forex traders do. In early May, the majority was betting against the dollar. When everyone places their bets and there is no new money left to push the price further, it has no choice but to reverse. That's why it pays to be extra cautious in the financial markets when everyone takes the same side of a trade. True, markets can stay overbought or oversold for a while, but the reversal inevitably comes -- and the stronger the one-sided conviction, the bigger the reversal. The advantage Elliott wave analysis gives you is this: Wave patterns in forex charts track the collective mindset of the market players. By anticipating the price points where the Elliott wave pattern should end, you get a pretty good idea of where the trend should stop and reverse. See for yourself how it works -- FREE -- during EWI's Forex FreeWeek now through May 26. Learn more >>
  15. MadMarketScientist
    From 24/7 Wallstreet ... I am optimistic this time is different ... famous last words!
  16. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome Maddman! Don't be afraid to post and ask questions ... enjoy the forums. MMS
  17. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome Maddman! Don't be afraid to post and ask questions ... enjoy the forums. MMS
  18. MadMarketScientist
    agreed ... but the only thing more intoxicating than money is POWER (and sex but thats for another forum! :haha:)
  19. MadMarketScientist
    You want to be liable for losses over 15%? Or am I reading this wrong? If not, that is way too risky for you ... even with tight risk\money management a black swan event might happen and you might get caught in a gap. I would not keep this clause in, every owner should share in that risk. You are essentially providing them free insurance! MMS
  20. MadMarketScientist
    Great post from the Casey Report ... Thoughts?
  21. MadMarketScientist
    If you have no clients are you trading soley with your own money? Or are you trading with 'members' money? If they are owners how are you going to handle them wanting input or say into the company operations? I'm a little confused on how you want this to be structured? It appears to me a hedge fund is essentially the best organization for a trading company ... 2% fee + 20-50% of profits! MMS
  22. MadMarketScientist
    I'm bearish on the US economy ... what do you think? MMS
  23. MadMarketScientist
    Great post ... these problems are shared by most traders, I am certain. In fact, I would venture to say most professions have similar problems! For me staying focused, disciplined, and methodical is the hardest thing. There are just too too many distractions being online with live data and access to information and education at our fingertips! I would venture to say traders who charted with paper\pencil might have a slight edge Maybe its time to setup a desk without a computer for the setup work ... MMS
  24. MadMarketScientist
    I've put "Latest Posts" and "Unread Posts" up below the main navigation bar (beside the 'Welcome to TL' message) on every page. I hope this works for you! thx MMS
  25. MadMarketScientist
    Hi, Thanks for the feedback ... we are looking into these items ... we might just go to google search ... thoughts? thx MMS
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