Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

MadMarketScientist

Administrators
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Content Count

    1281

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by MadMarketScientist

  1. MadMarketScientist
    The week ahead looks pretty exciting for interest rates with four decisions coming: Australia on Tuesday; New Zealand on Wednesday; and the eurozone and England on Thursday. Sure, Australia and New Zealand may not seem significant, but any rate hike adds more pressure on the Fed to do the same. In particular, the Australian dollar - a favorite of the carry trade - pressures low-rate currencies. Of course, the ECB's rate decision will be most significant. Trichet again has an opportunity to take a lead in the world. Unfortunately, he probably won't act and will leave the rate unchanged. Though the euro has made a tiny recovery, I don't think that it will hold. In the next month, I expect volatility within a controlled range until the Fed makes clearer announcements about the future - unless the ECB does actually raise rates. MMS
  2. MadMarketScientist
    We start with an oldie but goodie... and a metaphor for government's proclivity for repeating the same mistakes... Moose Hunters Two hunters -Stosh and Stan - got a pilot to fly them into the Canadian wilderness, where they managed to bag two big bull moose. As they were loading the plane to return, the pilot said the plane could take only the hunters, their gear, and one moose. The hunters objected strongly, saying, "Last year we shot two, and the pilot let us take them both. And he had exactly the same airplane as yours." Reluctantly the pilot, not wanting to be outdone by another bush pilot, gave in and everything was loaded. However, even under full power, the little plane couldn't handle the load and went down, crashing in the wooded wilderness. Somehow, surrounded by the moose, clothing, and sleeping bags, Stosh and Stan survived the crash. After climbing out of the wreckage, Stosh asked Stan, "Any idea where we are?" Stan replied, "I think we're pretty close to where we crashed last year." MMS
  3. MadMarketScientist
    Hey didn't mean to offend anyone here ... just that old thread was getting hard to navigate for people. Thanks for creating this great thread ... it isn't closed so you can continue to post on here if you want. thanks, MMS
  4. MadMarketScientist
    Sorry no, I am not happy you are losing money - I was was happy you liked the post by your statement ... "i really really love this post." MMS
  5. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome and enjoy ... this is the best forum to learn and discuss highly technical topics. MMS
  6. MadMarketScientist
    A converted lurker! Welcome ... I also like to dabble in stocks - I hope to see your posts around. MMS
  7. MadMarketScientist
    Politician are the best signals to do the opposite, so in a sense I do believe them! But the sad fact is, the politician is just getting economic advice from a 'ivory tower economist' and is spinning it in the best light until everything goes to sh*t. MMS
  8. MadMarketScientist
    You hit on a key concept. I have this exact same problem ... I enter trades with the best of them but am still lacking the discipline to exit trades properly. It almost seems like once I enter I think I'm done 'the trade' ... but in fact its just starting. And this is a beef I have with the newsletter guys, they give pretty good advice on what to buy and when, but never when to sell. MMS
  9. MadMarketScientist
    Maybe your approach needs some fine-tuning? Are you focused on a sector so you can become an expert at it? Are you just looking for opportunities across all instruments? Maybe its time to step back and review everything your doing. This is what I did after a couple years of fruitless trading and now I've been fairly successful trading technology and energy\resource stocks ONLY. I like technology and I live in a place with a lot of energy\resource companies so the environment I'm in makes these two sectors a good fit for me. Plus, I've started to factor in some fundamental data into my trading. I believe being correct on the bigger trend will help trading the smaller ones. See the other thread about this: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/advice-all-stop-fighting-trend-9763.html Good luck! MMS
  10. MadMarketScientist
    Yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted, "We don't have a euro problem in Europe. We have more of a debt problem. Financial markets doubt whether some EU states can manage their debt in the long-term." I have a third culprit for Europe's problems: economically ignorant and/or deceptive leaders. The eurozone's debt is directly linked to the value of the euro. If Greece or any of the other PIIGS default, the euro will suffer as a whole. Furthermore, Greece's problems and the bailouts are a direct result of the euro's existence. If Greece had its own currency, there would be no bailout from the European Union. Instead, the country would print a ton of its own currency. With inflation, Greece would likely monetize part of its debt. In the process, Greek citizens and bond holders would suffer the largest cost of the inflation. With the euro, Greece can't print its way out of debt - hence the rest of the European Union must bail them out. Instead of Greece suffering the most for its poor decisions, other countries must foot the bill. And in instead of Greece inflating its own currency, the burden is placed on the euro. This isn't Greece's only connection to the euro. Since inflation is currently above the European Central Bank's target, the ECB must raise rates. However, if it raises rates, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive across the board from Greece to Portugal. Due to its connection with the euro, the ECB must consider Greece when making a decision about German and French inflation. This is true for no other reason than the shared euro currency. Of course, Merkel should know better. If her statements didn't come from ignorance, they certainly came with the intent to deceive. Greece's problems and the euro are inseparable at this point. And if Merkel's intent is deception, the problem could be worse than imagined. MMS
  11. MadMarketScientist
    Someone who has been into the markets for 5+ years is likely to have gone through a large number of trading books. There are 1000+ titles from Wiley Finance alone. Here is my list of the best 2-3 books on each particular topic. Technical Approach Evidence-Based Technical Analysis by David R. Aronson Time Series Analysis by James D. Hamilton Technical Analysis Comprehensive Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar by Al Brooks Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource by Kirkpatrick Chart Patterns Chart Patterns (Bloomberg Financial) by Bruce M. Kamich Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (Wiley Trading) by Thomas N. Bulkowski Price-volume Analysis Jesse Livermore’s Methods of trading in stocks by Richard D. Wyckoff http://www.wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/ Intermarket Analysis and Relative Strength Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets by Ashraf Laidi Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships (Wiley Trading) by John J. Murphy Intermarket Trading Strategies (Wiley Trading) by Markos Katsanos How To Make Money In Stocks by William J. O’Neil Charting Systems The Candlestick Course by Steve Nison Profitable Candlestick Trading: Pinpointing Market Opportunities to Maximize Profits by Stephen Bigalow The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure by Jeremy Du Plessis Sentiment Indicators – Renko, Price Break, Kagi, Point and Figure (Bloomberg) by Abe Cofnas Trading with Ichimoku Clouds: The Essential Guide to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Technical Analysis (Wiley Trading) – Hardcover (June 28, 2010) by Manesh Patel Market Profile Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile By J. Peter Steidlmaye Mind over Markets: Power Trading With Market Generated Information By James F. Dalton Market Internals Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles by Joseph H. Ellis Trading Catalysts: How Events Move Markets and Create Trading Opportunities by Robert I. Webb The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators by Richard Yamarone Wave Theory Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior by A.J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter Mastering Elliot Wave: by Glenn Neely and Eric Hall The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing by J.M. Hurst Trading System Design New Trading Systems and Methods by Perry J. Kaufman Trading Systems- A new approach to system development by Emilio Tomasini The ART of Trading: Combining the Science of Technical Analysis with the Art of Reality-Based Trading (Wiley Trading) by Bennett A. McDowell and Lawrence G. McMillan Biographies and Experiences Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre Pit Bull by Martin Schwartz Master Traders: Strategies for Superior Returns from Today’s Top Traders by Fari Hamzei Options Trading The Rookie’s Guide to Options: The Beginner’s Handbook of Trading Equity Options by Wolfinger The Bible of Options Strategies by Guy Cohen The Volatility Edge in Options Trading: New Technical Strategies for Investing in Unstable Markets by Jeffrey Augen Fixed Income The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities by Frank Fabozzi Yield Curve Dynamics: Techniques for Modelling, Trading and Hedging by Ronald Ryan Good reading and good luck! MMS
  12. MadMarketScientist
    Hi, Thanks for the feedback - we are looking at fixing some of the search issues this month thank, MMS
  13. MadMarketScientist
    Common problem ... our forum email settings are not in sync with our mailing system ... I just added your new email and you should be getting our newsletters now thx MMS
  14. MadMarketScientist
    We are switching our email server so to ensure you continue to receive emails from TradersLaboratory please add: newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com to your address book - it only takes a minute! Specific Email Provider Instructions AOL Subscribers: From your mailbox screen click on the drop down arrow to the right of the 'Mail Options' and then click on Address Book Click the Add button (Add Contact for version 8.0) Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the 'Screen Name' box and then click Save: Yahoo! Subscribers: From your mailbox screen click on the 'Contacts' tab and then click on Add a new contact Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the 'Email' box and then click Save Gmail Subscribers: Click Contacts along the left side of any page. Click the New Contact button in the top-left corner of the Contact Manager. Enter newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com and click Save Hotmail Subscribers: Select the Options link in the upper right of the screen Click on More Options Under Junk e-mail click on Safe and blocked senders Click on Safe senders Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the box and then click Add to list MSN Subscribers: MSN 8 Click on E-mail settings. Click on the Junk Mail link. Click on Safe List. Click on Add an item to this list. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into 'Safe List' box and then click Add MSN 9 Click on Settings: E-mail | Junk e-mail. Click on the Junk E-mail Guard link. Click on Safe List. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into 'Safe List' box and then click Add Juno/Netzero Subscribers: From your mailbox screen click on the Address Book tab. Next to the Lists tab click the 'Add new contact' link. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the 'Email Address' box and then click Save Earthlink Webmail Subscribers: From your mailbox screen click on the Address Book. Click Add. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the 'E-mail' box and then click Save Outlook Users: Outlook 2003 From your inbox select Actions then select Junk E-mail and click on Junk E-Mail Options Address Book. Click the Safe Senders tab. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the box and then click OK Outlook 2007 On the Tools menu, click Options. On the Preferences tab, under E-mail, click Junk E-mail. Click the Safe Senders tab. Type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the box and then click OK Verizon: From your inbox select Options then select the Block Senders tab (near the top of the screen). On the Block Senders screen, you'll see both a "Block Sender List" and a "Safe List." In the space where it says "Enter e-mail address or sub domain to always accept even if the domain is blocked" type newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com into the box and then click OK Other: Add newsletter@mailserver.traderslaboratory.com to your Address Book or Contacts
  15. MadMarketScientist
    If the word 'fractal' comes up at all in conversation, that conversation is probably being held in a mathematics department. However, anyone who is interested in the Wave Principle and how it applies to the stock market may have stumbled across the phrase "robust fractal." If you want to know more about what it means in that context, here's an excerpt from Elliott Wave International's primer on fractals that explains the connection. Excerpted from The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal by Robert R. Prechter In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. In a series of books and articles published from 1938 to 1946, he described the stock market as a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similarly shaped at different scales. Although Elliott came to his conclusions fifty years before the new science of fractals blossomed, he took a step that current observers of natural processes have yet to take. He explained not only that the progress of the market was fractal in nature but discovered and described the component patterns. The patterns that Elliott discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated and defined a number of patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data. He named and illustrated the patterns. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns at the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle…. The Stock Market as a Robust Fractal A classic example of a self-identical fractal is nested squares. One square is surrounded by eight squares of the same size, which forms a larger square, which is surrounded by eight squares of that larger size, and so on. A classic example of an indefinite fractal is the line that delineates a seacoast. When viewed from space, a seacoast has a certain irregularity of contour. If we were to drop to ten miles above the earth, we would see only a portion of the seacoast, but the irregularity of contour of that portion would resemble that of the whole. From a hundred feet up in a balloon, the same thing would be true. Scientists today recognize financial markets' price records as fractals, but they presume them to be of the indefinite variety. Elliott undertook a meticulous investigation of financial market behavior and found something different. He described the record of stock market prices as a specifically patterned fractal yet with variations in its quantitative expression. I call this type of fractal, which has properties of both self-identical and indefinite fractals, a robust fractal. Robust fractals permeate life forms. Trees, for example, are branching robust fractals, as are animals, circulatory systems, bronchial systems and nervous systems. The stock market record belongs in the category of life forms since it is a product of human social interaction. How Is the Stock Market Patterned? Figure 1 shows Elliott's idea of how the stock market is patterned. If you study this depiction, you will see that each component, or "wave," within the overall structure subdivides in a specific way by one simple rule: If the wave is heading in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into five waves. If the wave is heading in the opposite direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into three waves (or a variation). These are called motive and corrective waves, respectively. Each of these waves adheres to specific traits and tendencies of construction, as described in Elliott Wave Principle (1978). Waves subdivide this way down to the smallest observable scale, and the entire process continues to develop larger and larger waves as time progresses. Each wave's degree may be identified numerically by relative size on a sort of social Richter scale. Want to Know More About Fractals and the Stock Market? Then read the whole special report, called "The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal." It's free of charge, so long as you are a member of Club EWI, which gives you access to many free reports that explain Elliott wave analysis and the Wave Principle. This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Does a Fractal Look Like?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
  16. MadMarketScientist
    haha ... yes we've been busy cleaning out active\inactive members, playing with so settings, so the numbers are a little off right now ... but yes please be more active!! thanks MMS
  17. MadMarketScientist
    Amen! Stay away from penny stocks, they are manipulated and the insiders are going to take all your money. You might win a big one here and there but the odds are so stacked against you ... playing blackjack or craps will give you a better chance. MMS
  18. MadMarketScientist
    Welcome ChartistLion. I'm also keen on all things tech whether it's work or play ... I hope to see you active on the forums! MMS
  19. MadMarketScientist
    Yes that really is the key to make this section a destination for readers. T2W does it well as does SeekingAlpha. MMS
  20. MadMarketScientist
    Hi, I understand the want to narrow down the field ... but instead of technical indicators maybe try the following I posted in your other post http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f106/new-investment-tool-idea-9796.html good luck! MMS
  21. MadMarketScientist
    Thanks for the feedback Blowfish. I know it takes work to keep threads going so I appreciate all the work everyone is doing to keep TL humming along with some of the best technical content out there. MMS
  22. MadMarketScientist
    my initial inclination is that an insider buy is based on information that won't show up in technical indicators ... indicators are based on price and other market variables ... but the market doesn't have the insider info. MMS
  23. MadMarketScientist
    Aside from the crooks in Wall Street, how about the crooks in DC? Isn't that unbelievable?? MMS
  24. MadMarketScientist
    OP - this isn't a problem only with real-time traders ... I have this same problem just trying to trade stocks over the medium term. there is just too much info out there and too many options ... trying to research one stock gets me looking at 10 other stocks and then off to the ETF's, etc, etc. yes i think its worthwhile to sometimes turn OFF internet (blasphemy!) and do some work without all the distractions. it used to just be email but now i find myself turning it all off more and more. MMS
  25. MadMarketScientist
    so the fourth screen is for TL right? :rofl: MMS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.

  I accept