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Hello, I just wrote an article about forex price manipulation in terms of stop running for example in the EUR/USD. If you are interested then you find the article at http://forex-chartanalysis.blogspot....market-is.html Feedback is always welcome. Have a good trading day.

I made an overview of important chart patterns and chart reading methods, which I think are working well. I hope you enjoy it. Topics: Stop Fishing, Consolidation, Consolidation price zone, Simple Moving Average (SMA), Timing Setup, Price Rejection, No breakout confirmation, Fibonacci study/ swing study/ trend, Bull/ Bear flag,Head and Shoulders pattern, Ending Diagonal pattern, Three-Drives pattern, Butterfly sell pattern, Butterfly buy pattern Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro US Dollar Day Trading Forex market: Chart Patterns 1/3

Hey people, I think we had a nice butterfly sell pattern on friday. Let's see how market will act this week. Wish a nice trading week! Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

Hello, We might see the setup for an ending diagonal/wedge on the 4-hour chart. I made a possible EW-count but the main important wave structure is the ending diagonal (red circle 1-5). Lets wait and see... Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

EUR/USD Market Recap 09.07.12 On Friday, the Euro closed at the low of June 1st (pink line) after market slightly penetrated this key level during the day. Today, market gapped slightly below Friday's low but initially reversed, closed the gap and consolidated around the pink line most of the day. On the 5 min chart we can see that the daily low of June 1st (pink line) acted as support/resistance. The breakout candle at 3 p.m. (penetrating the pink line) did not get confirmed and market reversed to the upside after hitting the price zone of the consolidation between 9 - 10 a.m. GMT. The main resistance to the upside was the daily pivot point. The Euro formed a bull flag/typical 3-wave-consolidation (red circle) before penetrating the daily pivot for the third time (level already weaken) whereby market breached this level (no confirmation) and triggered most of the stops above the daily pivot. The Euro is currently consolidation at the daily pivot. The positioning of the stops above a high/low or strinking levels is easy to anticipate and market often tends to trigger these stops. Very often these levels get penetrated and stops/limit orders get triggered but market reversed (no confirmed breakout-only stop fishing). Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

EUR/USD Market Recap 03.07.12 Today, the Euro had a relatively quite session. On the daily chart we see that the support level around the monthly pivot at 1.2568, the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) and the 20 SMA (purple) held the market so far. The circled areas on the hourly chart show how price bounced from support/ resistance. On the hourly chart we see that the Euro moved up to the daily pivot at 1.2611 at 7 a.m. GMT but market could not breach the resistance and moved lower from there. The Euro penetrated the monthly pivot and cleared some stops below it and yesterday's low but the Euro closed above this key resistance level on the hourly chart (green circle). After the clearing of the stops and the rejection of prices (close above the monthly pivot on the hourly and higher low on the 5 min chart) market moved to the other side of the consolidation (1.2568 - 1.2614) to test it. The Euro breached the pivot point and the recent high at 1.2614 (stop clearing) but the key level at 1.2624 (orange line- January low) provided strong resistance and the Euro bounced back. The fake breakouts (stop clearing) seem to be typical in a quite session when everyone is waiting for major news and thus traders are lacking commitment/ low participation. On the 5 min chart (above) we see how price bounced from support/resistance (blue circles) and the formation of consolidations/bull/bear flags (red circles) as well as some Fibonacci extensions (100 % and 161 %). The price zones of the consolidations (red circle) provided some temporary support/ resistance as the market moved back into these zones. At 9 a.m. market formed an inverted Head & Shoulder at the purple line (August low 2010). During the pattern market did not confirm the break of the purple line (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the 9:30 a.m. breakout candle on the 5 min chart). Market breached the brown neckline and moved up to the H&S price target (100 % of the larger swing in the H&S-(left shoulder to head)-moved to the break of the neckline). Between 1 and 3 p.m. the Euro breached the monthly pivot but the Euro formed a higher low and closed above the monthly pivot on the hourly chart (rejection of the breakout). From there, the Euro moved up to test the other side of the consolidation range and market found temporary resistance at the weekly pivot/ 161 % fib extension at 3 p.m. and the daily pivot at about 4 p.m.. The chance of a breach of the daily pivot increased due to the bull flag, the rising 10 SMA, the prior test at 7 a.m. (second test now) and particularly the fact that the prior 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. already touched (respected) the daily pivot so that this resistance level got weaker with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (Timing setup). Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

I think that the blue trendline is not very important but good luck anyway. We are currently at the monthly pivot point, daily 20 SMA and August 2010 low. I dont think that much will happen today anymore. If EUR/USD is able to hold the current support these days (possible bull flag on daily) then we could have some follow through of fridays strong candle. If market is falling below the support level then more downside is likely (possible bear flag on the hourly/4 hour chart, consolidation at support (respecting) before resuming the down trend).

On Friday the Euro moved up to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C). Today, market bounced back from this resistance level. The monthly pivot and daily 20 SMA (purple line) currently act as support. The low of January at 1.2624 (orange line) and the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) are key levels. On the 4-hour chart we see that the Euro respected the orange line and the 4-hour 10-SMA (red line). However, after the close of the bearish 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (red circle-left) (Timing setup) the Euro fell below the orange line/ 10 SMA. On the 1 hour chart we see that the 12 a.m. hourly candle (A) respected the daily pivot at 1.2598. The 1 p.m. candle penetrated the pivot point and respected the weekly pivot at 1.2586 and the purple line (August 2010 low) but closed above the daily pivot on the hourly chart. However, the 3 p.m. hourly candle resumed the down trend and penetrated the already touched/ respected support levels (second test). The Euro found support at the monthly pivot point. The price zone of the circled consolidation (blue) from Friday also provided some temporary support. On the 5 min chart we had a kind of inverted Head and Shoulder in the Asian session with the green neckline and a prolonged left shoulder at the support level of the low of January (orange line). At 11 a.m. we had a typical 3-wave consolidation at the support level (orange line) before the Euro resumed its downtrend. The duration of the consolidation is the same like the duration of the prior 5-min down swing. Most of the circled candles on the 5 min chart show how price bounced at support/ resistance. Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

Daily 61.80 % fib extension gives some support and market is currently consolidation around the low of the 8th of June (no confirmed breach of this level so far). __________________ Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

EUR/USD Market Recap 27.06.12 Everyone is welcome to post some analysis, trade setups, forecasts or thoughts about the EUR/USD so that this thread can get more interactive. Yesterday, the Euro found support at 1.2445 and formed a pin bar on the hourly chart. The bullish pin bar is a reversal pattern and it shows a strong demand at its level of creation. Hence, market was supported at this level and the strong rally back indicated a bullish rejection of the penetrated price level.The pin bar (bullish sign) led to some follow through and the Euro moved up to the 1.2500 zone. However, on the hourly and 5 min chart we see a kind of Head and Shoulder pattern. The brown neckline of the H&S and the supporting green trendline got broken at 1:15 p.m. GMT (confirmed on the 5 min chart). As often, market retested the recent support which now became resistance (neckline, green line) at 1:35 p.m. (small red circle). However, the neckline/green trendline held the market, which also coincided with the 5 min 20 SMA and 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing down. The Euro initially moved down after the retest but market did a second retest of the brown neckline (green circle) after market got rejected at the 61.80 % fib extension and weekly S1 at 2:15 p.m. (pink circle). If market strongly bounce back from the 61.80 % fib extension (no initial penetration or consolidation at this level then a temporary rejection of the current trend on this time frame is likely (either reversal or larger consolidation) and market moves to the recent support/ resistance. However, the Euro could not move above the neckline (green circle) and market resumed its downtrend and finally the Euro reached the H&S target (100 % fib extension from the largest swing of the H&S moved to the breach of the neckline) (blue cirlce). The H&S target also coincided with the March 2009 support level and the 100 % fib extension from the recent swing down. The Euro moved up from there but market penetrated this support level with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. after the prior hourly and 4-hour candle already touched (respected) the monthly low of March 2009. However, market only temorary breached this level (brown circle) and the Euro found support at the fib confluence level at about1.2447 and the daily S1. The Euro hold at the two 100 % fib extension and the 61.80 % fib extension (rejection) and market closed again above/at the March 2009 support level (rejection). The Euro resumed its uptrend after the formation of two bull flags (first one at the 5 min 20-SMA resistance). The price zone of the consolidation at 1 a.m. and at 6 a.m. (on the left of the 5 min chart) gave some support/resistance to the market as the Euro reached this price zone again.

Thanks for your feedback. I got your point and I think it is a good point. Nothing is for sure and you always have to live with uncertainty. The trader only can try to find high-probability setups with acceptable risk in relation to the price target. The point is that after years of trading I am convinced that these kinds of charting tools/patterns are the most effective. For trading purpose I think it is important to understand these basic charting tools. But more important is to put everything in context. The charting tools give you an understanding on what levels market is likely to react. The way market is reacting often depends on the price action at these levels (context-trend/consolidation, confirmation/non-confirmation of a break, candle close at or near a level at an important timing point (4-hour,hourly close)). So the first step is to know the important price levels and the second to watch price there (e.g. confirmation of a breach or rejection, fake breakout - only stop fishing). If market is close to a key level (first time) a bounce from this level is likely. If market returns quickly to this level (second test) or market even consolidates at the level (first test-bear flag) then a break of this level is more likely particularly on an important timing point (either fake breakout-stop fishing or true breakout- confirmation). Consolidations often take at least the same time as the last related impulsive swing. Very often market only goes for stop fishing (recent highs/lows, first test) and market does not confirm the breach (breakout candle/stop triggering candle does not get confirmed). A trader should also understand the changing role of support/resistance levels after a confirmed break of a level. Moreover, a trader should use these charting tools to find confluence levels where more charting signals agree on a specific level and watch price around it, which led to higher probability in trading. If a trader understands these pattern and tools then IMO a trader can better understand price behaviour and is more likely to understand what market action is about and the underlying implications. So in general, a trader should not take a signal (SMA) on its own but should consider the context and also look for confluence levels (key level-first touch). An SMA is stronger in a trend and with a rising/declining shape and at the first touch. However, other tools also should agree on the same levels. The way price reacts on the SMA is also important. If market after bouncing from the SMA only reaches the 61.80 % fib extension of the recent swing and quickly turns back to the SMA then the support/resistance of the SMA for a further bounce might be in question. The recap should help people to get a feeling for the use of the charting tools and the behaviour of price movements. The recap should explain the most influencing chart technical factors (IMO) on the price movements to give people an idea how and why market reacted in a specific way. However, in the recap it is in hindsight and sometimes the recap might highlight the (IMO) most important chart technical reason for a price movement but in real time this would not be enough to qualify for a high-probability trade. However, you will see that many pattern I highlight will repeat over and over. If someone understands these pattern/ charting tools and the likely implication for future price movements and price targets as well as the rejecting of the pattern then someone can tie everything together and search for high-probability trades (key levels/confluence levels, specific price patterns).

EUR/USD Market Recap 25.06.12 Last week the Euro formed a Double Top whereby the second top is a doji on the daily chart. The EUR/USD initially moved down and reached the price target of the Double Top on thursday (EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12), which is the breach of the low between the two tops at 1.2557 (low of June 18th-blue line). The Euro found temporary support at the daily 20 SMA after market breached the blue line. The Euro is currently close to the 61.80 % fib retracement (1.2464) of the recent upswing (daily chart). On the 4-hour chart we see that a kind of bearish flag was formed. Today market triggered the bear flag and the Euro resumed its downtrend. The 10 SMA (red line) on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart pushed the Euro down. The Euro found some support at the 61.80 % fib extension from the recent swing down (A-B at C-see 4 hour chart). The blue circles show some bear and bull flags on the 5 min chart. The fib extension levels 61.80 % (initial target), usually 100 % and sometimes even 161 % (strong trend) are typical swing projection targets e.g. of the bull and bear flags. The swing down after the first bear flag moved to the 161 % fib extension (breach of friday's low-stop triggering). The swing down after the second bear flag only moved to the inital 61.80 % target and the swing up after the small bull flag reached the 100 % fib extension. The recent upswing on the 5 min chart found resistance at the 200 SMA and the 100 % fib extension. The main question will be whether the Euro can make some larger retracements from the recent 61.80 fib extension on the 4-hour chart or whether the Euro is forming a new bear flag on the hourly/4-hour chart before resuming the down trend to the 100 % fib extension. The hourly 20 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 5 min chart currently provide some resistance.

EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12 On the daily chart (above) we see that yesterday's daily candle formed a doji and market formed a kind of double Top. The Euro dropped in today's European and US session and currently market penetrates the daily trendline and the Euro is close to the 20 SMA (purple line). On the 4-hour chart (above) we see that the Euro touched (respected) the daily trendline (red) with the closing of the 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro initially dropped further with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle starting at 4 p.m. (Timing) and the Euro penetrated the low of the 18th of June (green line). On the hourly chart (above) we see that the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib retracement (1) yesterday in the US session. Today, the Euro found support at the monthly pivot point in the Asian session (2) and moved up to the 20 SMA (3) where the Euro bounced back. The Euro moved down and penetrated the monthly Pivot point at 8 p.m. whereby the breach of the recent low (grey line, (4)) did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (stop fishing). From there, market moved up and finally penetrated the daily pivot point at 1.2691 (5), however, the Euro did not confirm the breach on the 5 min chart (no higher close of the succeeding candles above the range of the breakout candle at 12:20 p.m.) and market formed a strong one-hour rejection candle (long tail of the 12 a.m. candle). In the following, the Euro dropped down strongly. The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the support level at 1.2624 (pink line-Januarly low, orange circle) and market initially breached this level with the beginning of the 3 p.m. hourly candle. The same pattern occurred at the hourly 200 SMA and the daily trend line (red line). Market touched this support level and immediately after the close of the hourly and 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. (Timing) the Euro breached this support level and resumed its downward trend (black circle). The 5 min chart (above) shows the failed breakout confirmation at the grey line (A) and the daily pivot point (B). The red circle illustrates typical price behaviour around support and resistance. The 1:35 p.m. candle breached the monthly pivot but could not close below, however, the second breach got confirmed on the 5 min chart from the 2:05 p.m. candle. The Euro moved up again but market could not regain the prior support level (no confirmed close above the monthly pivot). The Euro also found resistance at the decreasing 10 SMA (red line), and the 5 min candle at 2:15 p.m. closed as a doji. The monthly pivot point now acted as resistance and price moved down. The green circle shows the bearish consolidation (bear flag) at the pink line (January low). The Euro breached this level at 3 p.m. initially after the hourly candle closed at this support level. The same price behaviour occurred at 4 p.m.. In a strong bearish or bullish environment market often close at key levels and after market respected these levels with the candle close these levels often get breached with the beginning of the new candle (either for a false or confirmed breakout-Timing). This price behaviour is visible on all time frames. The blue circle on the 5 min chart shows the retest of the orange line (low of August 2010) after this level got breached (confirmed). The 20 SMA also pushed the price further down (trend continuation).

EUR/USD Market Recap 20.06.12 The daily high of the 11th of June at 1.2669 is another key level (blue line). Today, the Euro found some support at this level in the Asian and beginning of the European session (hourly chart above). The Euro traded in a tight range prior to the FOMC market release. On the 5 min chart (above) we see that market formed a kind of Head & Shoulder pattern (ABCDE). The break of the brown neckline got confirmed with the news release at 5:30 p.m. GMT. Just prior to the news release at 5:25 p.m. the Euro bounced back from the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E and market closed in the range of the preceding 5 min candle. After the news release the Euro (5 min candle-5:30) initially moved down to the H & S target at around 1.2665 (B-D at F - blue circle, F= neckline break), also 161% fib extension C-D at E. From there market bounced back before the Euro resumed its downtrend to the weekly pivot point where the Euro found strong support and moved up again. The Euro found some resistance at the brown neckline (touched-respeced it, red circle) before market finally broke the neckline to the upside with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 6 p.m.. The chance of a temporary continuation of the uptrend and a breach of the high of the 5 p.m. hourly candle got increased due to the 5 p.m. hourly rejection candle (long tail) and the hourly close at the neckline. The 6 p.m. hourly candle breached yesterday's high. The volatile market after the news release led to a clearing of the stops below and above today's "pre-new release" trading session, which is not untypical for a news release (stop fishing targets).

EUR/USD Market Recap 19.06.12 nice call mysticforex. Short version: Market formed a bull flag at the 1.2624 resistance level and broke through this major level. The upward break through the key resistance level led to a strong bullish momentum Longer version On the 1 hour chart we see the changing role of the key level at 1.2588 (August 2010 low-orange line). Yesterday in the US session the Euro closed below this level at 3 p.m. GMT and in the following the Euro found resistance at the orange line. However, the Euro got supported by the hourly 200 SMA (black line) and the EUR/USD move above the orange line again in today's overnight session. Now, the orange line acted at support (prior resistance becomes support) and the Euro did not close below this level on an hourly basis. EUR/USD penetrated the orange line between 9 a.m. -10 a.m. but market bounced back again from the 200 SMA (yesterday's consolidation also provided some support at this price level) and closed finally above the key support.on the hourly chart. From there, the Euro moved up to the next key level at 1.2624 (pink line-January low). The Euro could not overcome this level for a while, however, EUR/USD also did not significantly bounced back from this resistance. The resistance got further strengthed due to the daily pivot at 1.2629. Market formed a bull flag on the hourly chart and the Euro broke through resistance (pink line) with the beginning of the 2 p.m. hourly candle after market repeatedly slightly penetrated this level during the three hour consolidation (bull flag-eroded resistance over time). Moreover, the bull flag terminated exactly at the 100 % time projection of the prior upswing (A-B at B, 5 min chart below). After the break of the strong resistance (pink line) market gained strong bullish momentum. The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed above the weekly pivot, the 3 p.m. hourly candle above the monthly pivot and the 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. closed (respected) at the 61.80 % fib retracement and market breached the 61.80 % fib retracement initially after the 4 hour candle closed (red circle on hourly chart). On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro initially moved to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C) after the breach of the pink line. The Euro found some resistance there and bounced back to find support at the rising 10 SMA (red line) on the 5 min chart and the Euro got repeatedly pushed up after touching the rising 10 SMA (strong bullish momentum). The 5 min chart also highlights the changing role (support/resistance) of the orange line. EUR/USD repeatedly reacted at this level (1.2588).